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November 30, 2014

Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Beazley

Here are my Week 13 picks against the spread:

Denver Broncos -1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (5 units)

Denver beat Kansas City in a close contest (24-17) earlier this year. The Chiefs are all over the place, and are very tough to predict. They have losses against the Raiders and Titans. They have wins against the Patriots and Seahawks. I believe the Packers will beat the Patriots today, and that means Denver can pull even in the W-L column for the race for home field in the AFC with a win. The Chiefs lost Eric Berry again for the season, and I think his loss is one of the reasons why I like the Broncos so much. Kansas City does not have the offensive firepower to come from behind. Broncos, 34-19.

DraftKings $2.2 Millionaire Maker Week 13 Contest: Turn $27 (entry) into $1 Million (top prize).

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Redskins -- Over 50.5 (4 units)

I like the Colts to get healthy this week against a very average Redskins defense. If you are a DFS player, I highly recommend rolling out a Indy stack as I think Andrew Luck is going to have a monster game. I believe Luck will be the No. 1 QB this week, and I think he will have a line of 350/3, 40/1. The Redskins should be able to move the ball against this Colts defense as well, especially with Colt McCoy at QB. I think he connects with DeSean Jackson twice deep to keep them in this game. Colts pour it on late, 44-24.

San Diego Chargers +6.5 over Baltimore Ravens (3 units)

Both teams come into the game at 7-4 and in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. This line is a little wacky to me because I truly think the Chargers are a pretty good team. They have struggled of late, but I think Philip Rivers has a pretty good game today and I'm going out on a limb and going with the outright upset in this one. Chargers, 20-17.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

Here are my Week 13 picks against the spread:

Miami Dolphins -7 over New York Jets (3 units)

Whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith has been under center, the results have generally been the same -- an ineffective offense. The Jets rank 29th in the league in total offense (310.2 yards per game) and 30th in scoring offense (16.1 points per game).

One of the biggest issues with Smith, who will start on Monday night, is his rate of turnovers. In 688 pass attempts over 25 games, Smith has thrown a total of 31 interceptions (and only 19 touchdowns). Meanwhile, the Jets struggle to take the ball away on defense with one of the league's worst secondaries. Only the Raiders (-13) have a worse turnover differential than the Jets (-12) this season. While the Jets struggle to move the ball, the Dolphins have one of the league's best defenses (315.9 YPG, fifth in NFL).

Five of the Jets' past six losses have been by double digits and I wouldn't be surprised if this one turns out similar to their blowout loss to the Bills last week.

DraftKings $2.2 Millionaire Maker Week 13 Contest: Turn $27 (entry) into $1 Million (top prize).

Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 units)

It's now been four games since A.J. Green returned from his toe injury and he's returned to the form that we expect from the stud wide receiver. In his past two games against the Saints and Texans, Green has a total of 18 receptions and has gone over 120-plus yards in each game. Meanwhile, the Bucs are allowing 251.5 passing yards per game and surrendered 21 passing touchdowns.

With Green hitting his stride, the emergence of Jeremy Hill as a power runner between the tackles and the return of Giovani Bernard from injury give the Bengals a dynamic duo out of the backfield.

The Buccaneers have struggled against the spread at home. In their past 27 games as a home underdog, they have covered in only five of those games. In their past 48 home games overall, they are 13-35 ATS.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 over New Orleans Saints (2 units)

Historically, the Saints have been much better at home than they have been on the road. After winning 10 consecutive home games including all eight of them last season, the Saints have lost three consecutive home games. Now they head to Pittsburgh to get back on track.

Few fan bases are as passionate as Pittsburgh's and I generally like teams coming off byes especially late in the season. And not only are the Steelers coming off their bye, but the Saints played on Monday Night Football, which means are traveling on a short week.

The Saints run defense is not good (123.8 YPG, 4.6 YPC, 12 TDs) and I expect Le'Veon Bell to run at will on them. A do-it-all back, Bell is averaging 4.9 YPC, only Matt Forte has more receptions than Bell among running backs and Bell is on pace for 2,087 yards from scrimmage.

Baltimore Ravens -6.5 over San Diego Chargers (2 units)

Like the Saints, the Ravens have typically had one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Since 2010, the Ravens have won 31 of 37 home games during that five-year span.

After dropping three consecutive games prior to their bye, the Chargers have won back-to-back games at home. That said, their wins against the Raiders and Rams were not that impressive.

Not only do the Ravens dominate at home, but it's usually not favorable for west-coast teams playing 1 p.m. games. I think the Ravens win by at least a touchdown in this one.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Trifone

Here are my Week 13 picks against the spread:

Washington Redskins +10 over Indianapolis Colts (4 units)

With RG3 being benched this week, the Redskins will look for a jolt from Colt McCoy, who won his only start over Dallas earlier in the year. I'm not sure if he'll have the magic to win another, but I do think they can keep it within 10. The Colts have also not looked like a team that has real championship aspirations, like many thought they would be.

DraftKings $2.2 Millionaire Maker Week 13 Contest: Turn $27 (entry) into $1 Million (top prize).

New York Giants -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (5 units)

I liked this game a lot better when it was 2.5, but I still feel confident that the Giants will cover. Odell Beckham has been incredible, and while they could not finish against Dallas last week, I believe they will this week against a much weaker opponent.

Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings (4 units)

The Vikings are a better team than was expected this year, and the Panthers are substantially worse. However, Carolina is only a half game out of the playoffs at 3-7-1. If they can figure out a few things, they can remain in the hunt and possibly win the division. I think Cam Newton will play better this week and get the win on the road.

New Orleans Saints +5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 units)

I took New Orleans last week to avoid a three-game skid on the road, and was wrong. It's with a lesser degree of confidence that I take them with the points going to Pittsburgh. Drew Brees has to start playing better, and I believe he will. I like the Steelers to win close.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Yanotchko

Here are my Week 13 picks against the spread:

Indianapolis Colts -10 over Washington Redskins (4 units)

The Colts have been pretty much on cruise control this year, and the schedule favors them yet again with the circus that is Washington coming into town. Washington has had quite the tumultuous year so far, and now they will start their third quarterback, again, this year in Colt McCoy as head coach Jay Gruden has benched RG3. The Colts just simply smash bad teams, and this game will certainly be no exception. The Washington secondary is horrible against the pass, as they give up 230 yards per game, 21 touchdowns, and have only four picks on the year so far. I love the Colts at home, and combine that with the beating they put on bad teams, equals me giving up the points here. I am going on a 4-unit play on this one.

DraftKings $2.2 Millionaire Maker Week 13 Contest: Turn $27 (entry) into $1 Million (top prize).

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 units)

Even though the Bengals were hammered by the Browns a few weeks ago, they still have managed to go 4-1 in their last five games, and also hold the pole position for the AFC North crown. The Bucs have been pretty bad this year at 2-9, but they still have had a bright spot in playmaking wide receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs have been really bad against the pass this year as they give up 252 yards per game and 21 touchdowns so far. The Bengals have also clamped down on defense recently, as they have only allowed 23 points total in their last two games. Cincy cannot afford to lose any of these easier games on their schedule, and I will make this a 4-unit play as well.

New England Patriots +3 over Green Bay Packers (4 units)

I am sure everyone knows all the hype about this game, and I really think that this one will deliver. The Patriots have been crushing teams on offense as of late, as they have not scored less than 34 points in a game in their last four weeks. The Packers are a different team at Lambeau Field, and Aaron Rodgers has been playing so well, that Matt Flynn has had some significant playing time this year. I think the Patriots will try to exploit the Green Bay rushing defense that gives up 136 yards per game on the ground and 4.5 yards per carry. I think that you will see a huge day by Jonas Gray, LeGarette Blount, and Shane Vereen, and also I love the coverage ability of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner being able to matchup with Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. I know this game will be close, and anytime you are giving the Patriots points, I will take them, and make this one for four units as well.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle


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