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December 17, 2016

Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

Baltimore Ravens -5.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (4 Units)

I've been picking on the Eagles for a while now and it's mostly worked out. They've been pretty bad since the hot start to the season. They'll be without playmaker Darren Sproles this weekend against what is already the league's best rush defense. The Ravens need to keep winning if they're going to edge out the Steelers for the division. I like them to bounce back after a tough loss at New England.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 15 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Indianapolis Colts +5 over Minnesota Vikings (3 Units)

Both teams are desperate for a win down the stretch and the Vikings are getting Adrian Peterson back this week. He's more of a big name than a real difference maker at this point though. The Colts are without wide receiver Donte Moncrief, but I think Andrew Luck keeps this one close anyway, and the Vikings offense is a pretty weak unit. I like a close game here, so I'll take the points.

San Diego Chargers +3 over Oakland Raiders (3 Units)

This is more of a number play, but a December division game with the home team getting points seems like a good spot to take. Although their records may indicate otherwise, these two teams aren't that far apart. The Chargers have had some tough losses and the division is just loaded this year, so someone has to come in last. I like the Chargers to get Antonio Gates involved in pursuit of the TE touchdown record, and like the Chargers for the outright upset.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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December 14, 2016

DFS Roundtable: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 15

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 15?

Sean Beazley: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills ($5,900)

I really like Sammy Watkins this week in GPPs. I had 20% exposure to Watkins in tournaments last week and will probably have a little more this week as he gets a great matchup vs. the Browns. This is an offense you can definitely stack with Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy as well. Many may be off the Tyrod train this week, but I am all aboard. Watkins appears to be healthy finally and he has as much upside as any WR in the league giving his deep play potential. I could see a 8/140/2 type of game from him this week vs. the Browns.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 15 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons ($6,700/$5,000)

Last week, I went with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas as a double-WR stack against the poor Titans pass defense and both WRs reached the 100-yard mark on a combined 30 targets. Many of my tournament lineups this week will feature a pair of Falcons running backs against the woeful 49ers run defense. (Virtually all of my lineups will have one, if not both, of these two backs.)

The 49ers have allowed 10 100-yard rushers in their past 12 games with Jordan Howard (32/117/3) and Bilal Powell (29/145/2) doing plenty of damage in Weeks 13 and 14, respectively. No team has allowed more yards per carry (4.99) to opposing running backs, who have also rushed for 19 touchdowns and added three more receiving scores.

With Freeman coming off a disappointing performance in their blowout win, that will hopefully keep his ownership down slightly. Especially if Julio Jones plays (at less than 100 percent), I could see the Freeman/Coleman duo racking up 200-300 YFS, 5-10 receptions and a couple of touchdowns in this dream matchup.

Brendan Donahue: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,700)

Hill's speed was on display on national TV last Thursday night and it seems like KC is figuring out what kind of weapon they now have in Hill. Over his past five games, he has caught at least four balls and had at least 52 receiving yards and scored double-digits on DK in each so he is starting to establish a decent floor. Within those five, he's also had three games where he's scored over 20 points with a high over 32.5 so he's also establishing a really high ceiling. This week he gets the Titans, who have given up the most points to opposing WRs so he's a must-play for me this week at just $5,700.

John Trifone: Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens ($3,800)

The clear value play at running back, Dixon is coming off a good game against the Patriots Monday night. He out-touched Terrance West with 11 carries and eight receptions, and should continue to see increased usage. Salaries came out before Dixon's good game, so I wouldn't overthink it. He's a solid option and the low price tag will help get in some of the higher-priced guys.

Dan Yanotchko: LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots ($5,000)

This week I have LeGerette Blount of the Patriots going up against the Denver Broncos. Last year the Broncos hit Tom Brady 20 times in the AFC Championship Game, and this year the Broncos are soft against the run. They allow 127 yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, and 12 touchdowns on the year, and have allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last three games. Blount has an impressive four-game split -- 66 carries, 351 yards and two touchdowns. They are going to play this game like the Colts, run them into the ground.

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December 07, 2016

DFS Roundtable: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 14

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 14?

Sean Beazley: Trevor Siemian, QB, Denver Broncos ($5,100)

I am targeting a QB this week who is near minimum salary facing a defense that has giving up 21 or more points in seven straight games. That QB is Trevor Siemian at $5,100. Siemian is out of a walking boot, and from early reports is on track to play vs. the Titans this week.

The Titans did release CB Perrish Cox, who was one player we all loved to target in DFS, but their backups are just as bad. This team makes mediocre QBs like Matt Barkley look like Hall-of-Famers. I’ll be running a dozen-plus Siemian GPP stacks this week as I think they will be pretty much unowned.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 14 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, WRs, Denver Broncos ($6,000/$5,700)

In his past seven games, Thomas has double-digit targets in six games. Meanwhile, Sanders has a minimum of nine targets in five consecutive games. Both of these wide receivers dominate team targets so they should combine for roughly 20 or so in a great matchup against the Titans. This year, the Titans have allowed 173 catches (5th-most in NFL) for 2,227 yards (3rd-most) and 14 touchdowns (tied, 7th-most) to opposing wide receivers. Based on their bargain salaries, Thomas (19th-most expensive WR) and Sanders (23rd-most) should easily exceed value with plenty of upside.

Brendan Donahue: Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers ($5,800)

Yes, I am going with the guy who set an NFL record last week by actually being sacked more times than he had yards passing in the game. I am willing to chalk that performance up to the weather. This pick might even have more to do with who the Niners are playing, as the Jets defense not only got torched by the Colts but looked disinterested while they were out there. Again, if you can overlook last week's performance, Kapernick was performing as a top-three fantasy QB over the previous four weeks and while he might not be the safest play, I am willing to take a chance on him for tournaments this week at just $5,800 at home vs. the Jets.

John Trifone: Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($4,900)

The Jets defense on Monday night was absolutely terrible. With nothing left to play for and Bryce Petty taking over at quarterback for the last four games, I expect the 49ers and Hyde to have plenty of opportunities to put up fantasy points. When healthy, Hyde has been a workhorse back, and I think a 100-yard game and a touchdown is well within his range of outcomes. He could score multiple TDs, but certainly has a safe floor with upside. For $4,900, he's a strong play his week.

Dan Yanotchko: Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100)

This week I like Andy Dalton of the Bengals, as he has the best possible matchup in the Browns. Dalton last two 300-yard games were 332 yards last week against Philly and 308 in Week 6 vs. Cleveland. The Browns passing defense is really bad allowing 259 yards per game, 28 touchdowns and they only have eight interceptions and 17 sacks on the year. It will definitely be raining points for the ginger.

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December 04, 2016

Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 over Atlanta Falcons (3 Units)

The Chiefs are coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory in Denver last week and have set themselves up for a playoff run. They'll need to continue playing well down the stretch, and with Jeremy Maclin ruled out, we should see a good bit of Tyreek Hill. I like a close game that the Chiefs may win outright, so I'll grab the 5.5 here.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 13 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Denver Broncos -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (4 Units)

The Broncos late loss to Kansas City last week means they'll have some work to do if the defending champs want to make another run at it. Rookie Paxton Lynch will be the starter, and while the Jags pass defense has been good this year, I have more confidence in Lynch this week than I do in Blake Bortles against the Broncos the way he has been playing this year. I don't think the Jags score enough here, and Denver is too good in a very winnable game to let this be the game that kills their playoff hopes. I'll go against the grain and take the small road favorite to cover.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 Units)

The Eagles may have a bright future with Carson Wentz at the helm, but the future is not now. After a great start, Philly has regressed to what they really are. They're a middle-of-the-pack team with a solid defense but very weak offense. They have injuries at the running back and wide receiver position, and may have to rely on Dorial Green-Beckham as their No. 1 receiver this week. I think these are two pretty comparable teams and with home field alone, I like Cincy by three or so. I'll give the 2.

New York Giants +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers (4 Units)

We're all waiting for the Steelers to rise up to be the team to challenge New England and potentially come out of the AFC, but at 6-5, they need to secure a playoff spot first. I expect an offensive game, but the Giants defense has been getting better and better as the season goes on, and I think six points is too much. The Giants offense should be able hang in with Pittsburgh, and the Steelers should win the game, but I see less than a touchdown as the difference.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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November 30, 2016

DFS Roundtable: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 13

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Roundtable post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 13?

Sean Beazley: Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions ($5,800)

The past few weeks, the chalk has crumbled which has led to a major dent in my bankroll. I am going to get back on track this week and the one player I love this week is Theo Riddick. Riddick has a very reasonable salary at $5,800.

The Lions have a date with the Saints on the road this week, and we just saw how good Drew Brees and the Saints offense was this past week vs. a good defense. This week, they get the Lions defense, one of the worst in the NFL vs. the pass. Points for New Orleans equals opportunity for Riddick in the passing game in catch-up mode. I could see Riddick easily getting 8-10 receptions for 100 yards and a TD this week, which would more than pay off his value in receiving stats alone.

This is also a great game to stack in tournaments as it should be the highest-scoring of the week. This will be a popular stack, so going a little contrarian in your non-stack part of your lineup will be needed to differentiate yourself from the field. Game stack example: Matthew Stafford, Riddick, Golden Tate, Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 13 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,700)

I debated a few players here and I debated listing Jordan Howard as it's always a wise move to start running backs facing the 49ers. Another player at a different position that will be in the mix to be my most-owned player is Kelce.

Kelce has hit the 100-yard mark in back-to-back games with a total of 15 catches in those two games. In fact, he had 15 targets on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos. Granted, that game went to overtime, but he has at least seven catches, nine targets and 100 yards in three of his past five games with a favorable matchup on tap. Only five teams that allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, but two of those teams -- Browns (bye) and Cowboys (TNF) -- won't play on the main Sunday slate.

Even though he has scored only one touchdown in his past five games (and none in his past four), Kelce has finished with 20-plus DK points three times. Priced below six other tight ends, Kelce is a top-two option for me this week.

Brendan Donahue: Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers ($6,100)

For a guy that has garnered a lot of attention for his off-the-field actions, he's surprisingly stayed pretty under the radar for his on-the-field performance for fantasy owners. In his last four games, he's averaged 26.9 points per game on DraftKings that culminated with a 37.1-point effort last week against a pretty good defense in Miami. In that game, he ran for 103 yards and facing a Bears defense that will be missing their top two linebackers, I can see him scrambling for a few longs runs once he breaks containment from the defensive line. He continues to produce as a top-10 QB, but DraftKings still has yet to catch up to his production as he is still only priced as the 13th-highest QB this week.

John Trifone: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears ($6,900)

Even though I want as much of the Saints/Lions game as possible, I'm going to recommend Jordan Howard as a top play. At $6,900, he's a substantial discount from top backs like David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell, but should have a comparable floor and even ceiling in Week 13. The 49ers were actually decent against Jay Ajayi in Week 12, but Miami was missing multiple starters on the O-line. I'm not putting too much stock in the performance. The 49ers run D has been atrocious all year. They play at a fast pace and Howard has been getting the volume as the lead back for Chicago. They should rely on him heavily this week, making his $6,900 price tag a bargain.

Dan Yanotchko: Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions ($5,800)

This week, I like Theo Riddick of the Lions as I think he will not be selected as much of the other options at running back. Riddick fits well with PPR formats, as he is averaging six receptions per game over his last four, and he has been targeted 29 times. The Saints have allowed 13 touchdowns on the ground, and 27 FPTS to opposing runners in PPR format.

Check out some of our fantasy football resources:

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle

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November 26, 2016

Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 12 NFL picks against the spread:

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 over Buffalo Bills (4 Units)

This just feels like too big of a spread. Blake Bortles has been awful this year, and the Bills have a solid defense. Still, the Jags pass defense is actually pretty good, and the Bills have some injuries on the offensive end. Robert Woods is out, and though Sammy Watkins just got taken off IR, it's unlikely he plays much or that he's as effective as he normally would be just yet. LeSean McCoy is good to go, but he did have thumb surgery last week. I like the Bills to win here, but the Jags to cover.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 12 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Arizona Cardinals +5 over Atlanta Falcons (5 Units)

This is a game where I think the Cardinals are better than they've shown of late, and the Falcons are not as good as they've been, so I will definitely take the five points here. Matt Ryan had his first pretty pedestrian game of the season against the Eagles two weeks ago, coming off a bye this week. I think Ryan regresses the second half of the season to something closer to what his career output has been. Atlanta may be good enough to win here at home, but I like a close game so give me the Cardinals with the points.

New York Jets +8 over New England Patriots (3 Units)

Call me crazy but I like the big division home underdog here. The Patriots offense is so schematically good and Tom Brady is still playing at an incredibly high level. The defense has been very mediocre, though, and the Jets do have some weapons in Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. The Jets season may be done, but I think they still get up for the game against the Pats and I like them with the points at home.

Green Bay Packers +4 over Philadelphia Eagles ( Units)

The Packers have been an incredible disappointment this year, but they still have a very potent offense and Aaron Rodgers has still shown flashes of being Aaron Rodgers. The defense is awful, but Carson Wentz and Philly have come back down to earth after a hot start that got everyone excited. I think GB matches up well with Philly and will be able to score points against them, and I don't think the Eagle offense will be able to keep up. I like the Packers to win outright in Philly, so I'll certainly take four.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle

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November 23, 2016

DFS Roundtable: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 12

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 12?

Brendan Donahue: Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($5,700)

I think last weekend was a prime example of why more and more people have started to switch over to DFS vs. season-long leagues. While the rash of injuries most likely ruined some teams in season-long leagues, it opened up some nice opportunities for us this weekend who are playing on DraftKings. The main one I like this week is Thomas Rawls, who is unquestionably the featured back for Seattle as they only have two running backs currently on the roster after cutting Christine Michael and the injury to C.J. Prosise.

Rawls has already shown that he's ready for a larger workload as he was forced into more action last week and carried the ball 14 times and caught it three times. Rawls was a fantasy difference-maker down the stretch last year and now with his increased role and a good matchup against Tampa Bay, I will be putting him in almost all my lineups at just $5,700 this week.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 12 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,700)

The Sunday-slate wide receiver options aren't great this week as Antonio Brown plays on Thursday, Julio Jones draws shadow coverage from Mike Evans will likely be shadowed by Richard Sherman and A.J. Green tore his hamstring last week.

With Russell Wilson playing better (now at full health), the Seahawks offense is one of my favorite team stacks this weekend. I will have many tournament lineups with Wilson paired up with Rawls, Baldwin and/or Jimmy Graham this weekend. One week after hauling in three touchdowns, Baldwin reached the 100-yard mark and he now has back-to-back top-10 PPR performances.

Sean Beazley: Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, WRs, Arizona Cardinals ($7,000, $4,300)

I just came off my worst week playing NFL DFS, but I'm ready to get back on the winning side this week. There is one particular game I really like this week and it's the Arizona-Atlanta game. This game should have a ton of points.

People will see that "green 31" next to David Johnson's name and want to jam him in. I will have my fair share of DJ this week (including cash) and I really like Larry Fitzgerald at $7,000 and Michael Floyd at $4,300. This Atlanta team can be thrown on, and for some strange reason, Arians doesn't like to run the ball even though he has the league's best RB. I believe both will have lower ownership this week and make a great natural leverage play off DJ.

John Trifone: Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,000)

With A.J. Green likely done for the year, Boyd may emerge as the top wideout on the team. He had eight catches and a touchdown last week, the game in which AJG went down early on. He's also got a matchup with the Ravens, who have one of the league's top run defenses. This looks like a good spot for a cheap WR to have a solid floor with big potential upside.

Dan Yanotchko: Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($5,700)

This week I like Thomas Rawls of the Seahawks, as he has a under-the-radar matchup against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed 114.3 yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, and nine touchdowns this season. Rawls will be seeing a plenty of action this week, as C.J. Prosise is on the shelf, and Seattle has limited options on the depth chart.

Check out some of our fantasy football resources:

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle

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November 19, 2016

Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

Baltimore Ravens +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys (5 Units)

If you've been betting against the Cowboys this season, you aren't doing well. They're 8-0-1 against the number on the year and the tie was way back in their Week 1 loss to the Giants. The Ravens have the No. 1 rushing defense in the league, and I think that they can slow Ezekiel Elliott down enough here to cover the 7.5.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 11 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Miami Dolphins -2 over Los Angeles Rams (4 Units)

The Rams are finally going to Jared Goff for his first start of the year. The rookie has been unable to beat out Case Keenum for the starting job, and the Dolphins have won four in a row. I'm a little weary of the Rams playing at home, but I just don't see the offense being able to score many points. They did win without a touchdown last week in the 9-6 barn burner against the Jets, but Miami should have a little more success scoring. If they can put up 17-20 points, that should be good enough to win by a field goal or more.

Arizona Cardinals +1.5 over Minnesota Vikings (3 Units)

Thr Vikings have been sliding since their hot start, and even the vaunted defense they came out with has taken a step back. If Patrick Peterson can neutralize Stefon Diggs in the slot, Minnesota may have a tough time scoring. Arizona has been disappointing this season as well, but I think they can hang in a tight, low-scoring game, and I'll take them getting points here.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

Check out some of our fantasy football resources:

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle

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November 16, 2016

DFS Roundtable: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 11

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 11?

Sean Beazley: Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,400

Targets and touches equal fantasy points. My play this week is a receiver who has had double-digit targets the past three weeks (40 total). He plays for an offense that is pass-heavy. His team actually leads the NFL with a 66-percent pass-run ratio. The game script is favorable as they are almost 7-point underdogs. He just came off his best game of the season last week. This WR is Allen Robinson.

The last time I wrote up A-Rob was Week 3 vs. the Ravens and he had a two-touchdown game. Hopefully I am the A-Rob Whisperer! Robinson is sandwiched between two WRs that I think will draw higher ownership this week in T.Y. Hilton and Dez Bryant. Robinson could be a good low-owned play this week.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 11 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: LeGarrrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots, $6,400

Not only will Blount be one of my lineup staples in Week 11, but I'd be comfortable going with the running back stack of Blount and James White (especially if Dion Lewis is once again inactive). Coach Belichick said that Lewis was healthy enough to play, but he was inactive.

Blount has scored a touchdown in all but one game (Week 4 without Tom Brady), but he has scored every other game this season and has a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. Favored by nearly two TDs, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Blount and the Patriots, who have this week's highest implied total (32.0) using Vegas odds.

No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs this year. No team has allowed opposing running backs to score more rushing touchdowns (13) or average more yards per carry (5.26) than the 49ers. Before this past week, the 49ers had allowed seven consecutive 100-yard rushing games.

Brendan Donahue: Martellus Bennett, TE, New England Patriots, $3,700

Although it hasn't been officially announced yet, I highly doubt Rob Gronkowski plays this week and that will most likely make Bennett a popular DFS play, but perhaps too big of a value to pass up. In the four games this year that Bennett has gotten at least six targets, his points on Draftkings have been 25.4, 18.9, 30.7, and 20.2, respectively, for an average of 23.8 per game. In a relatively favorable matchup against the Niners this week, I see Bennett having a rather high ceiling, making him a great value at just $3,700.

John Trifone: Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions, $5,100

There are already some decent value options early this week, with guys like Cam Meredith and C.J. Prosise underpriced, but I'm going with a sneaky good tourney play this week. The Lions are coming off a bye, so recency bias should give them some lower ownership. Additionally, Riddick had been a little banged up and lost a costly fumble in Week 9, which produced a poor fantasy game.

He was over 25 DK points in the prior two weeks, though, and has been heavily targeted in Detroit's passing game. As long as Riddick hasn't lost his spot on the depth chart, which I'm not too worried about but would suggest monitoring throughout the week, he has a ton of upside against the lowly Jags this week. As a value play in the low-mid range, he is well worth some tournament exposure for sure, and could possibly be a cash consideration.

Check out some of our fantasy football resources:

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle

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November 12, 2016

Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:

Carolina Panthers -3 over Kansas City Chiefs (4 Units)

After a 1-5 start, Carolina is surprisingly still in the playoff hunt in the NFC. They're coming off back-to-back wins over the Cardinals and Rams and have a home game this week to keep the momentum going. I like Cam Newton and the Panthers to cover the three.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 10 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Seattle Seahawks +8 over New England Patriots (5 Units)

This is just way too many points against a team as good as Seattle. The Seahawk offense finally broke out last week, and Russell Wilson looked like the guy we thought we'd see this year. The Patriots will probably win the game at home, and it's unnerving betting against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but this spread is just too big. I'll take Seattle plus eight all day.

New York Giants vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Over 47.5 (3 Units)

I expect an offensive game on Monday night. Eli Manning is coming off his best game of the year, and ahold the Giants defense played well last week forcing turnovers, they'll likely have a much tougher time trying to cover A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. I like a lot of offense in this one, so I'll take the over on 47.5.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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November 09, 2016

DFS Roundtable: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 10

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 10?

Sean Beazley: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears ($6,600)

I am assuming most people will target David Johnson this week, so you are going to need to be very wise with how you spend the rest of your salary. The price point I am looking at for my WRs is between $5,500-$7,000. There are a bunch of great tournament plays in this group that could have the same type of ceiling as some of the top options this week.

One of the players that I am interested in this week is Alshon Jeffery. I really like the Jay Cutler/Jeffery stack vs. a Tampa defense that is ranked 27th in the NFL vs. the pass. Alshon finally looks healthy and he has seen 32 targets in his past three games.

We have seen what Jeffery’s ceiling is in the past. I could see a 8/140/2 type of game here. I definitely will be overweight on Alshon this week.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a one-day $3 NBA contest with $25,000 paid to 1st place. ENTER HERE.

Kevin Hanson: David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($8,400)

Perhaps my final ownership will be less than 100 percent, but there will be no other time this season that I will come this close to 100-percent ownership on a player than this specific week and with this specific player. The only concern is the massive spread (nearly two TDs) and that the Cardinals take their proverbial foot off the gas, but no team has a higher implied total than the Cardinals (31.0).

Not only have the 49ers surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, but they have allowed seven consecutive 100-yard rushers. The 49ers are allowing RBs a league-most 5.48 YPC and only the Browns and Saints (14 each) have allowed more total touchdowns to RBs (13).

So, how much will an elite running back like Johnson rack up this week? Well, he was one of those seven rushers and had 27 carries for a season-high 157 yards and two touchdowns with three catches for 28 yards in his first matchup against them in Week 5.

Perhaps he won't match his Week 5 performance, but no player has a higher floor and ceiling this week than DJ.

John Trifone: Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans ($5,700)

Early on, there doesn't appear to be a ton of great value, so paying down at QB is a good way to give yourself some extra spending. Mariota has been outstanding the last few weeks and has at least 17 DK points in each of his last five games. Tennessee is at home against Green Bay this week, in what should be one of the higher-scoring games of the week. I like Mariota to easily pay off his salary, but also offer the high upside of some of the top-tier QBs this week.

Brendan Donahue: Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,300)

This is the second week in a row I'm picking Sproles even after he let me down a bit last week with a somewhat disappointing performance. The good news is that Coach Pederson reiterated that Sproles is the lead back and that was evidenced by him getting 60 snaps to just eight for Ryan Mathews. It is also encouraging that he was targeted nine times even though he was only able to catch one-third of them. In what should be a shootout with Atlanta, I expect him to get at least that many targets again, if not more. It seems that DraftKings has not properly factored in his new usage into their pricing as he is only $4,300 this week, which is the 33rd-priced RB and one of the best values of the week.

Dan Yanotchko: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears ($6,000)

This week, I like Jordan Howard of the Bears as he has a great matchup against the Buccaneers. Howard is rested off a bye, but he gashed an excellent Vikings defense for 202 yards from scrimmage two weeks ago. The Buccaneers have been soft against the run giving up 118 yards per game 4.1 yards per carry, and eight touchdowns on the year. Howard will be under the radar this week with Jay Ajayi, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliot having favorable matchups, but I love his matchup.

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November 05, 2016

Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 9 NFL picks against the spread:

Cleveland Browns +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys (4 Units)

The Cowboys, coming back to cover in OT against the Eagles last week, was a pretty terrible bet for me and anyone that liked Philly with the points last week. They came back from down 10 with eight minutes to go in the game to no only win, but cover with an OT touchdown on their first possession.

This week looks like a pretty typical trap game, going to Cleveland to face a winless Browns team, in between a big division win and a game against the Steelers next week. Dallas will probably win the game, but the Browns have been playing hard and they get Corey Coleman back this week. I like them to keep this one close.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 9 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 over Baltimore Ravens (3 Units)

The Steelers are one of the best teams, certainly in the AFC, but also in the entire league. Baltimore has been marginally good this year, but with the Steelers getting Ben Roethlisberger back, I just think they have too many weapons for the Ravens to handle. I'll take the small road favorite here.

San Francisco 49ers +4.5 over New Orleans Saints (5 Units)

The Saints had a big win over Seattle last week and similar to Dallas, look to be in a let-down spot. San Francisco has been terrible, but I like them to put up points against the Saints defense, which has been characteristically bad. I think the Niners can keep it close and maybe eek out the upset at home.

Carolina Panthers -3.5 over Los Angeles Rams (4 Units)

Against my better judgment, I'm taking another small road favorite. The Panthers are 2-5 and looking to build off an impressive Week 8 performance. I think Carolina has started to right the ship, and while they may not be the 15-1 team they were last year, they're certainly better than 2-5. They need to keep winning if they have any chance at a playoff run and the Rams are certainly a weak enough offensive team that I feel comfortable giving the 3.5.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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November 02, 2016

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 9

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 9?

Sean Beazley: Devontae Booker, RB, Denver Broncos ($6,400)

One play that I really like this week is Devontae Booker. I was 100% Booker last week in GPPs and I'll have a very large chunk of him this week as well. The fact that Denver relied on him so much even after sustaining an injury in the first quarter, and fumbling the ball again is really telling. Booker could have had a three-touchdown game last week. (Thompson vulture.)

This week he gets another great matchup against the Raiders, and it's the Sunday night hammer! Booker should see another game with around 25 touches and I like his chances to crush value this week. There are a lot of RBs in great matchups this week, so I think ownership should be somewhat low as well. I think Booker will have around 30 DK points this week. Fire him up!

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 9 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($5,800)

Returning from a five-game absence, Moncrief had four catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on nine targets in Week 8. A 40-yard score was called back, so he could have been even more productive in his return, but it was highly encouraging to see a 25.71-percent target share in his first game back.

Many (including me) expected a third-year breakout from the talented 23-year-old receiver out of Mississippi. With an ideal combination of size (6'2"/222) and speed (4.4 forty), Moncrief has flourished in the red zone when Andrew Luck has been healthy. In the 10 games that both have played over the past two seasons, Moncrief has a total of seven touchdowns.

With T.Y. Hilton battling a hamstring injury, Moncrief could once again see a large target share in a matchup against a depleted Packers secondary. In a game with this week's highest Vegas over/under, Moncrief has plenty of upside.

Brendan Donahue: Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,900)

Head coach Doug Pederson pretty much confirmed what we already suspected by watching the Eagles game Sunday night that Darren Sproles is now the lead back in Philadelphia. Not only did Sproles get roughly 80 percent of the offensive snaps on the night, he got the ball 20 times to only five for Ryan Mathews and that was even with the lead for the majority of the game. If Sproles is going to continue to get this kind of time and usage, he is a steal at only $3,900 on Draftkings this week.

John Trifone: Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams, WRs, Green Bay Packers ($5,800/$5,900)

The Packers have changed up their offense lately to a more dink-and-dunk recipe to move the ball. In the past two weeks, Aaron Rodgers has attempted 94 pass attempts and has seven TDs and zero interceptions. If Ty Montgomery is a go this week, which I expect he will be, he is an incredible value at $5,800 against a bad Colts defense. It should be an up tempo-paced game and Montgomery will serve as a part-time RB and short pass receiver.

Montgomery missed this past week, but got 25 targets over Weeks 6-7. Davante Adams got 30 targets over Weeks 7-8. I think both options are safe plays, even together, with solid upsides for both. Even if neither get in the end zone, they should still pay off their mid-range price tags based on the volume they're receiving. If both play, I prefer Montgomery, but Adams is a fine play as well.

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October 29, 2016

Week 8 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 8 NFL picks against the spread:

Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans, Over 46.0 (3 Units)

Matthew Stafford has been great this year, and seems to be among the top quarterbacks in the league under Jim Bob Cooter. The offense can certainly put up points. On the other side, Brock Osweiler has been a big disappointment and has not justified his contract. Still, he's mostly struggled against great defenses like Seattle and Denver -- teams most quarterbacks struggle against. He hasn't been nearly as bad against poor or mediocre defenses, and I like him to have a good game against Detroit. I think this game goes in the 50's and I like the over.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 8 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Carolina Panthers -3 over Arizona Cardinals (5 Units)

The Panthers may already be out of playoff contention at 1-5, but if they're going to get back into it, it has to start this week. Carolina is at home in a must-win game and we have yet to see the team that went 15-1 and made the Super Bowl last year. I'll take Cam Newton and the Panthers to start righting the ship and I'll give the three here.

Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 over Dallas Cowboys (4 Units)

The Cowboys look like the real deal as Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have taken the league by storm. The Eagles have certainly been overachievers to this point in the season, but their defense is legit. I like the Cowboys to win the game but Philly to cover.

Minnesota Vikings -5 over Chicago Bears (4 Units)

I don't like to give points to road favorites and especially not when the team is not particularly good offensively. That said, there are exceptions to every rule. The Vikings were the league's last remaining undefeated team until they got pretty well-dominated in Philadelphia last week. Chicago is getting Jay Cutler back this week, but at this point, I think that's a clear downgrade from Brian Hoyer. Cutler is turnover prone and the Vikings defense has been incredible. I don't expect a close game on Monday night in Chicago.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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October 26, 2016

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 8

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 8?

Sean Beazley: Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks, $

You're either a narrative guy, or you’re not. I don't go out of my way looking for a narrative game (revenge, birthday, homecoming, etc.), but there are some that just fall into your laps each week. This week, we get the Jimmy Graham “Revenge” game after being discarded by the Saints front office and traded away to Seattle.

Graham gets an extremely soft matchup with the Saints pass defense, who is among the worst in the league. This game is also in New Orleans which is always a good sign for some extra points. Each week, TE is usually a spot to plug in someone for $3,500 or less to get some savings, so Graham could come in at a pretty low ownership percentage, which is ideal for tournaments. Fire up Graham everywhere this week.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 8 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Devontae Booker, RB, Denver Broncos, $3,700

If anything, the drawback to owning Booker this week will be his increased ownership levels following Monday night's performance (17/83/1 rushing). Playing more snaps than "starter" C.J. Anderson, Booker also had more touches (18) than CJA (16). While I don't expect him to out-snap, out-touch Anderson this week (or most weeks), his role in the offense had been steadily increasing before his big game in Week 7.

Since Week 3, Booker's percentage of his team's carries has increased every week: 17.39% (W3), 21.88% (W4), 25.00% (W5), 31.25% (W6) and 48.57% (W7). Productive this season on a per-touch basis (4.78 YPC) and a favorable matchup to exploit this week, Booker offers plenty of upside and cost relief for owners looking to fit in high-priced studs elsewhere.

- Related: Booker topped my list of waiver-wire adds at RB this week

Brendan Donahue: Devontae Booker, RB, Denver Broncos, $3,700

Denver said before the Texans game that they wanted to get Booker more involved in the offense and they were true to their word. Booker ran the ball 17 times for 83 yards and a touchdown and actually out-snapped C.J. Anderson 35 to 28. His talent is obvious on the field and I think he at the very least keeps a 50/50 share with Anderson going forward and at just $3700 this week against a Chargers defense that ranks 30th vs opposing RB's on the year, he is a great value play on DK this week.

John Trifone: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $8,100

Evans isn't cheap this week, but he's also not quite in the Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, A.J. Green range yet, and he should be. With Vincent Jackson done for the year, Evans is an absolute target monster. He's had between 11-18 targets in each of his last five games with Week 1 being his only game that wasn't double digits (seven). Jameis Winston is still a young quarterback and he locks onto his favorite target more than a veteran might. In a PPR format like DK, Evans is a tough fade -- even at $8,100.

Dan Yanotchko: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts, $

This week, I am going with T.Y. Hilton of the Colts as I think his ownership will be a little less than Mike Evans of the Buccaneers. Hilton has been a true workhorse all year, 45 receptions on 76 targets for 689 yards receiving and four touchdowns . The Colts get the Chiefs on the fast track at home in Indianapolis, and the Chiefs do allow 257 yards passing per game, and surprisingly they only have gotten eight sacks. This means Andrew Luck might actually live another week behind that offensive line.

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October 19, 2016

Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 7 NFL picks against the spread:

Green Bay Packers -8 over Chicago Bears (5 Units)

I'm not sure what's wrong with Aaron Rodgers of late, but I'm sure he's heard the chatter and the Johnny Manziel comparison on ESPN's First Take. The Packers have been confusing as a whole, as they have not played up to the championship contender level that was expected of them this year. The Bears coming to town is a good way to start righting the ship. After a bad loss to Dallas last week, I like a big bounce back in the prime time Thursday night game. I'll give the eight points and like the Packers to win big.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 7 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

New York Giants -3 over Los Angeles Rams (3 Units)

I liked this game better at 2.5 but I'll still take the Giants at minus three. This one will be played in London, so there's no real home field in the game. The Giants have been up and down but I like them to build on their comeback win over the Ravens this past week. At 3-3, they need this one against a very beatable Rams team. Case Keenum has been better than expected this year so I'm expecting some regression as the Rams should continue to flummox us with wins in games like Seattle on the road and losses to the marginal NFL teams.

Washington Redskins +1 over Detroit Lions (4 Units)

Washington has been rolling after an 0-2 start and I'm not getting off the train just yet. A win at Detroit would be their fifth in a row, and I think they get it. The Lions have some key injuries on offense and Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron are still not practicing as of Wednesday. Both teams should still be able to put up some points, but I like the Redskins to win on the road.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 7

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 7?

Sean Beazley: DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans ($7,200)

One of my favorite DK plays this week is Titans RB DeMarco Murray. Murray is the fourth-highest priced RB this week, and has an extremely favorable matchup vs. the Colts. Murray has had 20-plus touches in each of his last four games, and I expect another heavy workload for him this week.

Last week, DeMarco was the chalk, and he disappointed many owners. This week, I think he will get overlooked. David Johnson is only priced $200 higher than Murray and is coming off a great game In prime time. I think the majority of players will click DJ’s name even with the bad matchup over DeMarco in an elite matchup.

I would estimate ownership being 10-15% higher on DJ this week. Recency bias at its finest, and this is the week to capitalize. I think DeMarco will be the highest-scoring RB this week.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 7 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons ($5,900)

One of my GPP strategies will be to start both Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the same lineup. Normally it wouldn't make sense to pair running backs from the same team in the same GPP lineup, but the Falcons are home favorites with the highest implied point total of the week. The duo has shown that they have the potential to BOTH perform as top-eight PPR running backs in the same week twice in their past four games.

With all that said, Freeman (59.44% of team's RB usage) is getting the larger share of the workload than Coleman (38.33%). Not only does Freeman have a minimum of 15 touches in all six games this season, but he has five targets in three of the past four games. So far this season, no team has allowed more receptions to RBs than the Chargers (54) and only the Saints (10) have allowed more TDs to RBs than the Chargers (nine).

Brendan Donahue: DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans ($7,200)

Murray is the clear workhorse in Tennessee and is even getting more carries as the year goes on as evidenced by his 73 carries and seven catches over the past three weeks. With that type of volume and talent going against the 30th-ranked defense against opposing RBs this year, I think Murray has a chance to be the top-scoring RB of the week. At $7200, I think he's as safe an option to build a lineup around.

John Trifone: Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans ($6,000)

At $6K, Mariota is one of the cheaper viable quarterback options this week and he's got a great matchup at home against the Colts. He's rushed for over 60 yards in each of his last two games and has thrown six TDs and rushed for one in those games. Mariota should easily pay off value but also has tremendous upside, and as a lower-cost option, will allow you to spend up in other spots.

Dan Yanotchko: Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000)

This week, I really like Allen Hurns going up against the worst pass defense in the league, the Oakland Raiders. Hurns is due for a breakout game, as he has complied 200 yards on 20 receptions, but he has been targeted 38 times in those five games. The Raiders allow 313 yards passing per game, and 12 touchdowns as well, so Hurns is a great add this week.

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October 15, 2016

Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 6 NFL picks against the spread:

Cincinnati Bengals +9 over New England Patriots (3 Units)

This is really just a case of the line being too large in my opinion. The Patriots are pretty clearly the best team in the league with Tom Brady back, and the angry-Brady narrative will likely lead to the Pats spreads being more inflated than normal. It's tough to bet against them, but the Bengals are a pretty good team, and there's just too many ways that they cover nine points. It's possible they keep it fairly close - it's also possible they're trailing much of the game and sneak into a back-door cover. Either way, I think there's too much value on the Bengals getting nine not to take them.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 6 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Miami Dolphins +7.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 Units)

This is another line that's too high. Miami has not been good - in fact they've been one of the worst teams in the league. They're coming off a bad loss to the Titans at home, while the Steelers are coming off a big 31-13 win over the Jets. It's a week-to-week league, though, and Ben Roethlisberger has historically been much better at home than on the road. I like Le'Veon Bell to have a huge game, but I think Miami bounces back from last week and keeps this one close.

San Francisco 49ers +9 over Buffalo Bills (5 Units)

Ok - I know this is my third game taking a ton of points - but this line is perhaps the most egregious of them all. The Bills have gotten hot since firing their offensive coordinator, with big wins over the Cardinals and Patriots. Last week's win over the Rams was more expected, but they've clearly been playing pretty well of late. The 49ers, on the other hand, have been going in the wrong direction since a Week 1 thrashing of the Rams and have made the switch to Colin Kaepernick. Buffalo is likely to win the game, but I think the quarterback switch gives the 49ers a bit of a spark, and this one won't be decided until late. Take the nine.

Washington Redskins +3 over Philadelphia Eagles (5 Units)

The Redskins have righted the ship since an 0-2 start, and have an important division game at home this week. Carson Wentz finally threw his first interception in the final minute of the game last week, and the Eagles suffered their first loss of the year. Although they've been quite impressive, I expect some regression from Philadelphia. The defense looks legit, but Wentz is likely to make a few more mistakes. I don't think the level they've played at in the first four games of the year is truly reflective of how good they are. By season's end, I think Philly will be a more middle-of-the-road team, and Washington will be the team on top of the division. I like the Redskins to win at home outright - even without Jordan Reed, who is likely out with a concussion, so I'll certainly take the three.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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October 13, 2016

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 6

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 6?

Sean Beazley: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,300)

Roster construction last week was cheap RB and pay up for WR. This week, I expect it to be the exact opposite as there are so many high priced RBs in great matchups. Cam Meredith will likely be one of the highest-owned players to get those stud RBs in. I think this week a more balanced approach will be key to differentiate yourself from the pack. One of those targets I like this week is Jeremy Maclin. Maclin is priced outside the top 20 this week, and he gets a very juicy matchup vs. the Raiders, who can’t stop anyone. Maclin has had success in the past vs. the Raiders (12/149/3 last season) and I think he has top-five upside this week. Fire him up in GPPs.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 6 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,500)

There are plenty of players that I considered, but I absolutely love Allen Robinson this week. While there are six other receivers priced higher than A-Rob, the third-year wideout is my second-ranked receiver after Antonio Brown ($10,000) this week. The volume of targets has been there for Robinson, who has double-digit targets in three of four games. After leading (tied) the league with 14 touchdowns last season, Robinson has three touchdowns in his past two games before the bye. That said, the immensely talented receivers has yet to have that monster game that he's capable of producing and it wouldn't surprise me if it happened against a beatable Bears secondary that just gave up 10/171/1 last week to T.Y. Hilton.

Brendan Donahue: Sammie Coates, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,700)

While I don't expect Coates to duplicate exactly what he did last week, he is certainly trending in that direction. In the past two weeks, he has 12 catches for 218 yards and two touchdowns on 19 targets. He actually had a few drops last week that cost him an even bigger day and an easy touchdown, but Ben Roethlisberger is clearly gaining confidence in him. In a great matchup against the Dolphins defense that ranks 29th against WRs, he is a great value at only $4,700.

John Trifone: Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills ($4,200) and Cam Meredith, WR, Chicago Bears ($4,100)

My DK pick this week is going to go back to some value options and I'm going to give two WRs in the same range: Robert Woods for $4,200 and Cam Meredith for $4,100. Woods is coming off a poor game, catching only two of his six targets this past week. However, he's got a good matchup coming up and is the Bills top wideout option with Sammy Watkins out. His performance this past week should keep his ownership down.

Meredith also has a good matchup at home against the Jags this week. He played almost the entire game, replacing Kevin White's role, and the presence of Eddie Royal and Alshon Jeffrey on the field did not hurt his production. In the limited time he has played, he's been heavily targeted and made the most of his opportunities. Both wideouts are great value options to open up your lineup to some of the more expensive guys.

Dan Yanotchko: Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans ($6,600)

This week, I really like Lamar Miller of the Texans, as he has a great matchup against the Colts. Miller has averaged 74 yards per game, and added 14 receptions as well, as I believe he will be focal point of their offense this week. The Colts have allowed 109.6 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, and five touchdowns on the ground. This week will be a breakthrough for Miller, against a really bad Colts front seven.

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October 08, 2016

Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 5 NFL picks against the spread:

Detroit Lions +3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (5 Units)

The Eagles have been unbelievable in the first quarter of the season. What looked like a lost year, after trading away their starting quarterback a few weeks before the season began, Carson Wentz and the Eagle D has come to the rescue. They're 3-0 coming off a bye going on the road to a thus far mediocre Lions team. Detroit has had some injuries, but I like the small home dog here. Philadelphia isn't going undefeated this season, and even though they're coming off a bye, Detroit needs a bounce-back win. I think they get it this week.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 5 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Washington Redskins +4 over Baltimore Ravens (3 Units)

The Ravens are coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Raiders, 28-27 in Week 4. The Redskins, on the other hand, are trying to build off back-to-back wins against the Giants and Browns. Washington was one of my favorite offenses coming into the year, and they've shown just how many weapons they have. Jordan Reed still looks like the primary target for Kirk Cousins, but they have a dangerous receiving corps all around with guys like DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon, etc. If they can establish Matt Jones in the running game, I like them to win this game outright, so I'll certainly take the 4 points against a Ravens team that has overachieved thus far.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 over Dallas Cowboys (4 Units)

I don't often like small road favorites, as they are historically a pretty terrible bet. Still, they don't all lose, and I like the Bengals to go into Dallas and get the win this weekend. Cincinnati has not gotten off to a hot start, but their two losses on the year have been at Pittsburgh and to the defending champion Denver Broncos. They're much better than a .500 team, and should take care of the Cowboys this weekend.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears, Over 48 (4 Units)

I love Andrew Luck to have a big game this weekend at home against Chicago. On the other side of the ball, Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard should feast on a banged-up and terrible Colts defense. I like the Colts to win here, but there should be a lot of scoring on both sides, so I am expecting this game to easily go over the total.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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October 05, 2016

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 5

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 5?

Sean Beazley: Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles, $3,500

One guy that I will be heavily targeting this week is Eagles TE Zach Ertz. Ertz should be 100 percent ready to go this week versus a Lions defense that just bleeds points to TEs. Last season, they were the worst unit versus the position, and this year they are allowing on average 6-64-1.5. This is 21.4 DK points. Ertz is only $3,500 so he more than pays off this value.

Ertz should be somewhat low-owned this week as well considering the increase in ownership that Rob Gronkowski will have with Tom Brady back and the weekly chasers targeting Jordan Reed. Ertz’s price point is perfect given that I expect the recency bias to fall as well on players like Kyle Rudolph, Zach Miller, and Hunter Henry (if Antonio Gates is out), who all scored touchdowns last week.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 5 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots, $6,700

During Tom Brady's four-game suspension, Edelman averaged a 4.75/49 line with no touchdowns. Not only do the Patriots get Brady back this week, but they get a favorable matchup against the Browns. In his past 16 games with Brady, Edelman has racked up 119 catches (on 176 targets) for 1,355 yards and 10 touchdowns. As the 18th-priced receiver for DraftKings main slate of Sunday games, Edelman should easily exceed value (for the first time this season).

Brendan Donahue: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears, $5,200

Howard was given the lead role in the Bears backfield last week and may have just won the job going forward even when Jeremy Langford and Ka'Deem Carey come back from their injuries. John Fox said in his post-game interview that the Bears will "continue riding Howard," which certainly makes sense as he ran for 111 yards on 23 carries and caught three balls for 21 yards against the Lions. With a good matchup against a bad Colts defense this week, he is still priced too low on Draftkings at only $5,200 and should have a rather high floor with the potential to be a top-five RB this week.

John Trifone: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts, $7,300

There are always a ton of guys to like on DK, both for value and matchup-based situations, regardless of price. I typically go with a value guy for my recommendation, but this week, I'm going to go with Andrew Luck. At 1-3, the Colts absolutely need a win at home against the Bears this week. Luck has been solid from a fantasy perspective — the Denver game aside, which any quarterback is going to struggle with. He hasn't had that huge game yet, though, and this is an absolutely prime spot for him to get it. I don't mind going for more value at quarterback, but on raw points, I like Luck to blow up this week. I'm expecting 350+ yards with 4 TDs.

Dan Yanotchko: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, New York Jets, $5,100

This week I like — and don't laugh — Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Jets at Pittsburgh. Take away his horrible interceptions, and he has averaged 252 yards per game, and has added 60 yards rushing as well. The Steelers have been bad against the pass, allowing 317 yards per game, and a 64-percent completion rate to opposing QBs. I like his value and he's less than Brian Hoyer this week.

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September 28, 2016

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 4

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 4?

Sean Beazley: DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans, $8,400/$5,300

The pricing this week on DraftKings looks much softer than it has in previous weeks. With some of that value on the board this week, you can pretty much pay for anyone. This will make playing GPPs this week very fun.

I have a pair of teammates that I will be targeting heavily this week: DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400) and Will Fuller ($5,300). I wouldn't be opposed to a double stack with Brock Osweiler in GPPs. Recency bias and the extremely low total of 40.5 will get people off the Texans offense this week. This is a big mistake. Hopkins has 15/211/2 in two games vs. the Titans last year and I expect him to get in the end zone again this week.

The Titans released DFS favorite CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson and replaced him with Perrish Cox, who has been equally awful this season. If Fuller is matched up with Cox, he should have a monster game.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 4 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter here.

Kevin Hanson: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (vs. NO), $

I'm going back to the well with Gordon again (my pick in Week 3). It was a mildly disappointing performance for Gordon last week as he barely averaged two yards per carry against the Colts. That said, he did get 20 touches and score a touchdown. With Danny Woodhead injured, Gordon has a total of 47 touches in the past two games and he's a lock for close to (or more than) 20 touches every week.

MG3 was such a popular pick last week, I'm hoping a high volume of disappointed owners get off him this week. Gordon and the Chargers face a Saints defense that allowed Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to finish as the week's top-two scorers at the position.

The Chargers are four-point home favorites in a game that has highest over/under. As the 10th-most expensive back for the Sunday slate, he should easily return value and has as much upside as any running back this week.

Brendan Donahue: Trevor Siemian, QB, Denver Broncos (at TB), $5,400

In a week that I don't really love any quarterbacks at their price points, I'm looking for value and possibly no better value this week than in Trevor Siemian. In his first road game last week, Siemian put up 312 yards and four touchdowns on a Bengals D that isn't great, but certainly is better than Tampa's defense that is currently giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season.

While I'm not expecting another 300-yard, four-touchdown performance, I am expecting a very solid performance from Siemian. And at only $5,400 this week on Draftkings, he will allow you to spend up at the other skill positions.

John Trifone: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears (vs. DET), $3,700

Jordan Howard is this week's value play at $3,700. The Bears offense is terrible, but they're at home this week against the Lions and Howard should receive a heavy workload. In the age of the passing game, there aren't too many backs that get the volume Howard should with Jeremy Langford out, so for $3,700, he's a great lineup starter.

Dan Yanotchko: Travis Benjamin, WR, San Diego Chargers (vs. NO), $5,900

This week, I really like Travis Benjamin of the Chargers, who has a dream matchup against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have been really bad against the pass, giving up 299 yards per game, and a 70% completion percentage. Benjamin is the Chargers WR1 with 17 receptions, 229 yards, and two scores. With his big-play ability, you have to love his opportunity this week.

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September 21, 2016

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 3

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 3?

Sean Beazley: Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. BAL), $7,500

There is a ton of value this week giving the plethora of injuries this past week. Getting one of your top-end options correct is going to be very important this week. One of those players I really like is the Jaguars receiver Allen Robinson at $7,500.

When you look for WRs, looking at targets is probably one of the most important factors. A-Rob has 20 targets in his first two games and leads the team. Robinson was shut down last week by Jason Verrett, who I think is a top-three CB in the league, so his ownership should be lower than normal.

The matchup is great vs. the Ravens despite the Ravens giving up the least amount of passing yards in the NFL this season. I hope the casual DFS player overlooks the fact that the Ravens first two games were versus Tyrod Taylor and Josh McCown. My bold call is that Robinson is the No. 1 WR this week in DFS. Get him in your lineups.

NFL $1.25M Play-Action Contest: DraftKings is running a $3 Week 3 contest with $50,000 paid to 1st place and is FREE for new depositors. Enter the Week 3 $1.25M Play-Action Contest.

Kevin Hanson: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (at IND), $5,800

Talent? Check. Heavy workload? Check. Favorable matchup? Check. What's not to like about Gordon this week? The 13th-most expensive running back this week, MG3 offers his owners plenty of value this week. Through two weeks, Gordon has three touchdowns after failing to score any as a rookie, and he had 27 touches in Sunday's win over Jacksonville. MG3 should be one of the staples of your cash-game lineups and he has some upside for GPPs as well.

Brendan Donahue: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (at IND), $5,800

Even though the Chargers added Dexter Mccluster this week, I don't see him stealing too many snaps from Gordon. With Gordon getting the bulk of the work against the defense that's currently allowing the most points per game to opposing RBs, Gordon has a great chance to surpass last week's performance that returned 24 points for his owners.

John Trifone: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (at IND), $5,800

The Chargers continue to offer value through injuries. It's early in the week and several RB injuries this past weekend are likely to open up some great cheap options, but at this point, Melvin Gordon already looks like one of the better plays. He's averaging over 20 DK points through two games, and with Danny Woodhead's injury, Gordon should get even more usage.

He had 24 carries for over 100 rushing yards, and has another great matchup with Indianapolis coming up. Gordon has looked more like the guy that San Diego thought he would be when they drafted him, and he should get plenty of opportunities to continue that trend.

Dan Yanotchko: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (at BUF), $6,900

I really like Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals this week, as he's turned back the clock to 2009 and he gets to play the Bills. Fitzgerald has 168 yards receiving on 14 receptions on 22 targets and three touchdowns. The Bills have given up 295 yards passing per game and just look woeful in the secondary after letting Ryan Fitzpatrick carve them up.

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September 14, 2016

Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

After getting off to a 2-1 start in Week 1, here are my Week 2 NFL picks against the spread:

Tennessee Titans +6 over Detroit Lions (3 Units)

The Lions were impressive in Week 1, hanging 39 points in Indianapolis to secure the victory. Tennessee was in a close game with Minnesota until two costly turnovers gave the Vikings 14 quick points. I think Detroit will still probably win the game, but I like the Titans with the points.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a FREE Week 2 contest with $100,000 in prizes (including $10,000 to 1st) and is FREE to enter. Enter here for free.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 over Baltimore Ravens (3 Units)

The Browns looked pretty terrible in Week 1, but I'm going to give the Eagle defense some credit for that. The Ravens should be a softer matchup this week, and the transition from RG3 to Josh McCown should give the Cleveland offense more stability. I expect a close division game that could go either way, so I'll definitely grab the 6.5 here.

Washington Redskins -2.5 over Dallas Cowboys (3 Units)

I'm a little reluctant to give points here, but I think the Redskins are going to have a good year and I really like their offense. After getting thumped pretty well by Pittsburgh at home on Monday night, I like them to bounce back against Dallas. The Cowboys looked ok against the Giants, and I like Ezekiel Elliott to have a good game, but I don't think they'll have enough to win it. I'll give the 2.5.

Indianapolis Colts +6 over Denver Broncos (3 Units)

Denver's defense is fierce and they won't make it easy on Andrew Luck this week. That said, while the Colts defense is just atrocious, I don't know if the Broncos offense really has the fire power to exploit that fact. I also don't think it will be in the game plan to really win it on Trevor Siemian's arm. The Colts are going to play with a greater sense of urgency, coming off a loss in their home opener. I expect a close game so I'll take the 6 points.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 2

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 2?

Sean Beazley: Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers (vs. JAX), $5,200

Woodhead outsnapped Melvin Gordon 50-23 on Sunday and had seven more touches. Even when the Chargers were up big in the game, the Chargers were using Woodhead, which is a pretty telling sign.

The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen for the rest of the season, and will need to turn to Woodhead even more in the passing game. Woodhead could see upwards of 10 targets this week against a Jags defense that gave up 105 receptions to RBs last year (third-highest in the NFL). Woodhead could even be safe in cash this week as well.

Editor's note: DraftKings is running a FREE Week 2 contest with $100,000 in prizes (including $10,000 to 1st) and is FREE to enter. Enter here for free.

Kevin Hanson: C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos (vs. IND), $6,800

After a slow start last season, CJA averaged an RB-high 6.35 yards per carry from Weeks 7 to 17. Picking up where he left off, Anderson racked up a total of 139 yards and two scores on 24 touches as he finished Week 1 as a top-three back.

Favored by nearly a touchdown (-6) in Week 2, the Broncos should once again force feed the ball to Anderson. CJA gets a favorable matchup against the Colts, who allowed a pair (Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah) of top-10 fantasy running backs last week.

Six running backs have a higher salary than Anderson this week. That said, there is only one running back ahead of him in my PPR running backs: David Johnson, who's also the highest-priced back of the week. With plenty a high floor and plenty of upside, he'll be the building block in the majority of my lineups.

Brendan Donahue: Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints (at NYG), $5,800

Even though it's only been one week, I think the Saints have already come to the realization that they are only going to win games in shootouts this year, which is great for us in fantasy. Snead had a terrific Week 1 catching all nine targets for 172 yards and a touchdown. In last year's matchup with the Giants, Snead put up 25 points on DraftKings with 6 catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns. I see another high-scoring game between these two teams and Snead is in line for another big game.

John Trifone: Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers (vs. JAX), $5,200

If you're not playing Eli Manning and Odell Beckham in cash Week 2, you're going to be in the minority. And you should be. There are plenty of tournament options I like as pivots off Eli - specifically Philip Rivers, who everyone will be off after the Keenan Allen news. I also like Kirk Cousins in tournaments after having a sub-par performance on Monday night.

My favorite early value play, though, would probably be Danny Woodhead. He substantially out-snapped Melvin Gordon Week 1 and has better usage with Keenan out of the lineup. With DK's PPR scoring, Woodhead has a safe floor and also a fairly high ceiling in what should be a relatively fast-paced game against Jacksonville. At $5,200, he looks like great value to me.

Dan Yanotchko: T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (at SD), $4,700

This week I like T.J. Yeldon of the Jaguars going against a very bad Chargers run defense. Chris Ivory was just released from the hospital, and most likely will not play this week. Although he was inefficient, Yeldon had 25 touches -- 21 carries and four receptions -- last week and added a TD. Also, last week San Diego gave up 4.4 yards per carry and two scores as well.

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September 07, 2016

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 1

Every week of the 2016 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts why in our DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 1?

Brendan Donahue: Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. SD), $4,400

It's becoming more apparent that Jamaal Charles will miss Week 1 and since prices were released before the news broke, you can get his replacement, Spencer Ware, for only $4,400 this week. Ware got 11 carries or more in four games last season and he scored at least one TD in each of those four games and got you over 23 DraftKings points in two of them. As the 30th-most expensive RB on the board this week, he presents great value in cash-game formats and will allow you to spend at other positions.


Editor's note: DraftKings is running a FREE Week 1 contest with $100,000 in prizes (including $10,000 to 1st) and is FREE to enter. Enter here for free.

Sean Beazley: Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions (at IND), $7,300

If you are reading this DFS advice column, you have probably read countless others, so I'm not going to talk to you about all of the same chalky plays that everyone is talking about. Dak Prescott, Marvin Jones Jr. are four players that will be very high owned, and I have all four penciled into my cash team right now. One player that I absolutely love that will get overlooked is Golden Tate. Tate has a hefty price tag at $7,300 considering his teammate Jones Jr. is $2,700 cheaper.

Here are two reasons why I love Tate for GPPs:

  1. Ownership: Unless you are going full game stack, or a QB-WR-WR Lions stack, chances are you are going to be choosing Jones Jr. over Tate. Jones Jr. will be 20-25% higher owned than Tate. There are also a lot of other flashy players in great matchups in this same price range. Randall Cobb vs. Jacksonville, Amari Cooper vs. New Orleans, and Mike Evans vs. Atlanta. The casual DFS player is not going to choose Tate over those players. I think this gets overlooked when building lineups.
  2. This is a dream matchup for Tate. The Colts defense is decimated with injuries in the secondary which should lead to plenty of opportunities for Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense. I read a great article today on defensive tendencies. I would imagine Tate sees a lot of Darius Butler (89th of 111 corners in coverage last year according to PFF) in the slot.
DraftKings offers full point per catches, and it wouldn't shock me at all to see Tate be among the league's best WRs in Week 1.

Alternating picks for a tournament lineup, Sean/Kevin did a DraftKings GPP Draft for Week 1.

Kevin Hanson: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYG), $7,300

Even if Tony Romo weren't injured, I'd expect the Cowboys to employ a run-dominant game plan with Zeke. With a horrible defense and a rookie quarterback replacing a fragile one, the Cowboys can protect both Dak and their leaky defense by controlling the clock and LOS on offense. There is plenty of value to be had this week so it's easy to spend up, but I think Elliott's ownership will be much lower than next week given Dak's contest-minimum price tag this week. In my early Week 1 rankings, Elliott is my top-ranked fantasy running back and my bold prediction for his debut is 200 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns.

[FYI: I looked it up and no rookie had more than 194 rushing yards in Week 1. Coincidentally, it was Ottis Anderson against the Cowboys.]

John Trifone: Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts (vs. DET), $6,000

There are a lot of great value picks this week -- more than there will usually be because of the long gap between when prices came out and Week 1. Guys like Spencer Ware, Dak Prescott, and Marvin Jones are all good value options. I'm going to pick two different value plays, though. I like Donte Moncrief for $6,000 and the Browns defense for $2,300 against a rookie quarterback in Philly. Moncrief should see a lot of targets in a high-scoring affair Week 1 against a bad defense. The Browns are facing a team that just traded their starting quarterback, a sign that they're essentially waving the white flag on the entire season. Those are two of my favorite cash plays for Week 1.

Dan Yanotchko: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL), $6,200

I like Doug Martin this week at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Last year Martin had a solid stat line in two games of 166 rushing yards and a TD. Not only will the Falcons start two rookies at linebacker, they gave up 105 rushing yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry, and a league-high 20 rushing touchdowns last year.

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September 05, 2016

Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread: RG3, Browns Upset Wentz, Eagles?

Earlier today, Sean posted his four initial Week 1 NFL picks against the spread; now it's my turn.

Here are my Week 1 NFL picks against the spread:

Cleveland Browns +3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (4 units)

The Browns are going to look like a pretty different team this year. There is a lot of hope and optimism surrounding the offense with RG3 at the helm, and especially with the upside potential that Josh Gordon will bring once he returns. The Eagles shifted expectations for their season when they traded Sam Bradford less than two weeks before the season begins. I'll reserve expectations for the Browns this year until we see them for at least a few weeks, but I like them to upset a pretty mediocre Eagles team on the road in Week One. I'll take the 3.5 and like the outright upset as well.


Editor's note: DraftKings is running a FREE Week 1 contest with $100,000 in prizes (including $10,000 to 1st) and is FREE to enter. Enter here for free.

Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears (3 units)

I'm not quite sold on Brock Osweiler yet, but he was at least serviceable in Denver with flashes of some solid upside. He's got some pretty explosive weapons around him in Houston with DeAndre Hopkins and the addition of Lamar Miller. On the other hand, Chicago is one of the teams I'm lowest on entering the season. They may have a lot of trouble scoring against the Houston defense. I'm not expecting a particularly close game so I'll give the points in what should be an easy one for Houston.

Detroit Lions/Indianapolis Colts Over 51.5 (4 units)

After the Raiders/Saints game, this is the highest total on the board entering Week One, and justifiably so. The Colts defense already has some key injuries starting the year, on top of the fact that they're expected to be a pretty poor defense anyway. The Lions have talked about wanting to quicken their offensive pace even more this year, and I expect a lot of passing on both sides. We should see a shootout in this one, and even with the high total, I like the over to hit. There's a good chance both teams get to or near the 30's, and I see a 35-31 type of game.

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January 01, 2016

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 17 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 17 of the 2015 NFL season:

Pittsburgh Steelers -11 over Cleveland Browns (4 units)

Week 17 is always tough to pick because you never know how coaches are going to decide to play it. They may rest players and try to see what they have in some younger guys, or they may treat it as any other Sunday. There are some games where it is easier to predict what coaching will do, and in this case, the Steelers are playing for their season.

After a huge stumble last week against Baltimore, they'll need help from the Bills to get in, but I think Pittsburgh will show up this week the way I expected them to last week. The Browns will be going with Austin Davis at quarterback and I just don't see a way that they can keep up with the high-powered offense of the Steelers. This one should be over quickly in a 38-10 type of game.

New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Atlanta Falcons (3 units)

Everyone seems to love the Falcons here, coming off a huge win against the formerly undefeated Panthers. Julio Jones needs 17 receptions and 243 yards to break single season receiving records in both categories. I love Julio, but he's unlikely to get either record, even against the Saints terrible defense. I've watched too much of the Falcons this year to be fooled by the previous week's performance.

Sometimes teams get up for big games. Prior to that win, Atlanta had been terrible and I expect them to come back down to earth. I think the Saints have a decent chance to win here, but either way, I'm certainly not laying 5.5. I'll take Julio in DFS all day, but his individual stats aren't going to win them the game. Take the points.

New England Patriots -10.5 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

I'm not sure what I think this spread should be, but it just doesn't feel high enough - even at 10.5. The Patriots have been decimated by injury, but they could put you and me out there against Miami and easily win this one. The Dolphins had a little surge after firing Joe Philbin midway through the season, but that has long since passed. I don't think that they can hang for long here. It feels like a big win for the Pats and a free coffee at Dunkin Donuts Monday morning for those of us living in New England.

Green Bay Packers -3 over Minnesota Vikings (5 units)

I don't know why, but I like the Packers to win and cover here. I admit I'm still in love with Aaron Rodgers and no matter how terrible his receiving corps is or how often he's been getting pressured in the pocket, I just believe. The Vikings look like one of the more fraudulent playoff teams this year and I'd pick them as least likely to win a playoff game of the teams in. I think they falter against Green Bay and the Packers gain a little momentum going into Wild Card weekend. Give the three.

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December 20, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 15 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 14 of the 2015 NFL season:

Houston Texans +1 over Indianapolis Colts (4 units)

The winner of this game is likely to win the division. It feels like the Colts have run out of magic. Matt Hasselbeck had been solid in his first few starts in relief of Andrew Luck, but there's only so much you can expect from a 40-year-old backup quarterback. The Texans have been playing better down the stretch, and although they lost to the Patriots last week, most teams lose to the Patriots. I like Houston to bounce back here on the road and likely win the AFC South.

Cleveland Browns +14.5 over Seattle Seahawks (4 units)

Who in their right mind would take the Browns to cover going into Seattle? Call me crazy, but I think the Browns prove to be a lot tougher than this spread would indicate. While Cleveland has nothing to play for, Johnny Football has everything to play for, as he strives to prove he belongs in the league. I think he will surprise a few people and follow up a solid performance last week with another one here. I like Cleveland to cover.

San Diego Chargers -2 over Miami Dolphins (5 units)

The Dolphins season ended last week at the hands of Odell Beckham and the Giants. The Chargers are not going to the playoffs either, but this could be their last home game in San Diego before moving to LA. I think Philip Rivers will have a strong showing and put some points on the board this week. Give me the Chargers at home this week, 34-20.

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December 05, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 13 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 13 of the 2015 NFL season:

Atlanta Falcons -1 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 units)

Atlanta's Julio Jones was very quiet last week and I think that's unlikely to be the case two weeks in a row. The Falcons are also getting Devonta Freeman back this week, who has been fantastic. Matt Ryan has really regressed of late, and I actually like him to attack Tampa through the air. In what is essentially a pick'em game, I'll take Atlanta.

Minnesota Vikings +1.5 over Seattle Seahawks (3 units)

Seattle will be a scary team if they can claim one of the two wild card spots. However, they have not by a long shot been as good defensively as they have been the past two years. Jimmy Graham had just started getting involved in the offense, but he will be out for the rest of the year. Minnesota is for real and I expect them to win this game at home.

Chicago Bears -7 over San Francisco 49ers (4 units)

Chicago has been one of the pleasant surprises this year and is actually in the playoff hunt. Jay Cutler was recently added to the injury report with an illness, but as long as he plays, I like them to easily beat San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a tough loss against the division-rival Cardinals. Their defense plays much better at home, and with little to play for and having to travel to Chicago for a 1 PM start, I like the Bears in a 27-10 type of game.

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November 28, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 12 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 12 of the 2015 NFL season:

Minnesota Vikings +1.5 over Atlanta Falcons (4 units)

Minnesota is coming off a bad performance against the Packers last week, but they are legit. The Falcons, on the other hand, have simply been going downhill, and after a 5-0 start, are likely to miss the playoffs. I expect a bounce-back game from the Vikings and I like them to win outright.

Oakland Raiders -1 over Tennessee Titans (4 units)

Oakland is another team that didn't play well last week, but this is another bounce-back game. Derek Carr has been excellent this year and has a lot of weapons (Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Latavius Murray, etc.). Tennessee is still in the mix in the worst division in football, but I don't think they will beat the Raiders, who also need a win to stay in playoff contention. In what is essentially a pick'em game, I like the Raiders here.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 over Seattle Seahawks (4 units)

The Steelers have not really been at full strength all year and will be without Le'Veon Bell for the remainder of the year. The rest of the offense is finally in tact, though, and Pittsburgh was able to keep the ship afloat while Ben Roethlisberger was out. Seattle has been mediocre all year and I don't see them turning it around against Pittsburgh. Seattle is a tough place to play, but I think Pitt will at minimum cover the 3.5 here.

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November 21, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 11 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 11 of the 2015 NFL season:

Green Bay Packers pick'em over Minnesota Vikings (5 units)

This is the pick I like the most this week, but oddly the one I'm most nervous about at the same time. It's one of those games that I'm nervous to not bet heavy on because it seems like an opportunity that doesn't come around often. I know a lot of people are on the Vikings this week, and it's tough to blame them considering the way the Packers have been playing. They lost at home to a terrible Lions team, losing to Detroit for the first time since 1993.

Aaron Rodgers has not looked like himself lately, but I'm just not willing to bet against him and this team falling out of the playoffs. It's been noted that Green Bay's offense has been very predictable and I expect them to make some adjustments in Minnesota. Those that are all in on the Vikings this week will, come Monday morning, be saying that a Green Bay win was predictable given the quarterback comparison. I think the Packers start to figure things out this week and they get back on track with a road win.

Washington Redskins +7.5 over Carolina Panthers (4 units)

I'm riding the Kirk Cousins train again this week. Clearly this is a much tougher matchup against the undefeated Panthers, but I still like Washington to keep it relatively close. They are an increasingly confident football team that is surprisingly in the mix to make a run at the playoffs and win the division. If Cousins can avoid turning the ball over, which he's been getting better about of late, I like this game to finish within a touchdown. I like the Skins with the points.

Dallas Cowboys -1.5 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

I expect the Cowboys to play inspired football this week. With Tony Romo coming back, the entire team realizes it's make-or-break time if they're going to stay in the division race. Dallas was the pretty clear-cut favorite coming into the year to win the NFC East, but were unable to win even one game since Romo went down. At 2-7, they would typically be done for the season, but crazily enough, they are just two games out of first in the loss column.

Miami has been very up and down, cruising through the first two games after firing Philbin, but then getting crushed by the Bills and Patriots the following two weeks. They did eek out a one-point win against the Eagles last week, but I'm not going to say I was impressed. A Dallas team with Romo back is going to be a much tougher game, and I like the Cowboys to win on the road. I'll give the point and a half.

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November 14, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 10 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 10 of the 2015 NFL season:

Green Bay Packers -11 over Detroit Lions (5 units)

Aaron Rodgers has lost two games in a row for the first time since 2011. The Lions have not beaten the Packers at Lambeau since 1993. Interesting stats aside, this game just sets up to be a blowout.

I'm going to have a ton of Rodgers in DFS this weekend and I like him to finally have the huge game we've been waiting for. I'd start to consider Detroit around 14.5, so I'll give the 11 and feel good about it.

Dallas Cowboys +1 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 units)

Matt Cassel is a better quarterback option than Brandon Weeden. Dallas was almost able to pull out a victory against the Eagles last week. Since Tony Romo went down, the Cowboys have not won a game, but with such mediocrity in the division, they still have an outside shot.

Tampa represents a winnable game and I like the Dallas defense to step up and turn Jameis Winston over a few times. Dez Bryant should have more of an impact this week. I like Dallas to win in a game that I don't think will be particularly close. I like a 27-16 type game.

Washington Redskins Pick'em over New Orleans Saints (3 units)

The Saints defense has been absolutely atrocious of late. This sets up as an offensive game, but I feel the Redskins defense can do a better job against Drew Brees and the Saints than the other way around.

DeSean Jackson may have an impact and Jordan Reed has been an animal when healthy. I like Kirk Cousins to lead the Skins to a close victory and give us all another, "you like that!"

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November 08, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 9 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 9 of the 2015 NFL season:

Tennessee Titans +7.5 over New Orleans Saints (4 units)

The Saints have been playing much better of late and won an exciting game against the Giants last week in a game where they put up 52 points. The problem is they gave up 49. I'm still not sure that we are looking at the Saints offense of old, as they have been fairly inconsistent, but I certainly don't trust the defense.

Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota will be returning to action, and I think the threat of him running the ball will keep the New Orleans defense off balance. The Saints likely win but I'll take the points here.

Green Bay Packers -3 over Carolina Panthers (3 units)

The Packers got pretty beat up against a great Denver defense last week. From start to finish, Aaron Rodgers and the Pack really weren't able to get anything going. I think that changes this week.

They have another tough matchup in Carolina, but I think the offense bounces back big here. The Packer defense was also bad last week, but they have been solid most of the year. Against my better judgment, I'll take the small road favorite to cover the three.

New York Giants -2 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 units)

The Giants defense has been atrocious of late, but the offense has started clicking. Somehow, New York is still in first place in the NFC East at 4-4, and this is a very winnable game for them.

They'll face a rookie quarterback that has some beat-up receivers. If they can find a way to contain Mike Evans, Tampa doesn't have a lot on offense that scares you. Either way, I like the Giant offense to outscore them. Two points is small enough that I'm comfortable giving the Bucs the points. Take the Giants in what will likely be a pretty ugly game.

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October 29, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 8 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 8 of the 2015 NFL season:

Miami Dolphins +8.5 over New England Patriots (3 units)

This spread has been bet up from 7 and 7.5, and I like Miami to cover here. The Patriots always get everyone's best effort, and that applies even more in the division. They are coming off a tough game against the Jets - a game they were losing for quite a bit of.

While New England is still undefeated, they have not been destroying teams the way I suspected they might do all season, after their first couple of games. They have not covered either of the last two weeks, and now they face a Miami team that always plays them tough. The Dolphins have been much better since firing coach Philbin, and I think they have the offensive firepower to keep this one close.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (4 units)

The Bengals have been great this year and look like they might be the most complete team in football. However, they're not going undefeated, and this looks like the game that may be their first loss. Ben Roethlisberger will be returning to action (Antonio Brown fantasy owners rejoice), and I think it will serve as the spark the Steelers need to win this game. Pittsburgh did a great job keeping it together, going 2-2 in Ben's absence. This is a win that could help propel them to the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons -7.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 units)

The Falcons didn't look good last week, which surprised me. I picked them to cover six and they were only able to eek out a three-point win. I don't think Atlanta is a great team, but traditionally, they play much better at home and they win the games they're supposed to win against poor teams.

Tampa blew a huge game to Washington, losing 31-30 after having a four touchdown lead. The offense had a very good game, but I'm expecting more mistakes from Jameis Winston this week. If they turn the ball over on the road, I can't see them hanging with Atlanta, who only put up 10 points last week. I'm thinking they will put up close to 30 against Tampa this week.

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October 23, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 7 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 7 of the 2015 NFL season:

St. Louis Rams vs. Cleveland Browns -- Under 42.0 (3 units)

I liked the Rams here at the beginning of the week when the line came out at 3.5, but now that it's been bet up to 6.5, I don't love it. I do, however, like it to be a low-scoring, defensive game. I think this is a good spot for the Rams defense, coming off a bye against a team that went all out against Denver last week. Cleveland fell short of the win and I think they are in for another disappointment this week. I'm not willing to give the points, but I like the under.

New York Jets+8 over New England Patriots (3 units)

The Patriots have been destroying teams, but failed to really beat down the Colts this past weekend, which many expected. The Jets are a better football team than Indy -- especially defensively. With a very good defense and some big weapons on offense, including Chris Ivory, Brandon Marshall, and Eric Decker, I like the Jets to hang with the Patriots and cover the large spread.

Atlanta Falcons -6 over Tennessee Titans (3 units)

This is another spread I liked a lot better early in the week, as the Falcons have been bet heavily the last few days. Still, I'm going to give the points here. Although Marcus Mariota may play, I don't believe they can keep up with the Atlanta offense. A banged-up Julio Jones has had some adequate time to recover coming off playing the Thursday game. Devonta Freeman has been the breakout player of the year which has added another dimension to the offense. I like Atlanta to bounce back from their loss to the Saints and feast on a weak Titans team.

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October 13, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 6 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 6 of the 2015 NFL season:

New Orleans Saints +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons (4 units)

The Saints are not a great football team, and they're coming off their worst defeat of the season to the Philadelphia Eagles. Now they're on a short week hosting their undefeated division rival, the Falcons.

Everything seems to point toward Atlanta, but the Falcons are pretty banged up themselves. Julio Jones did not have his usual impact last week, and barring a random fumble recovery for a touchdown, had a pretty quiet game. Atlanta's defense is also vulnerable, and with less than a full week to get healthier, I like the Saints to knock off one of the remaining undefeated teams. Look for Big Willie Snead to have another big game as the Saints win a close one at home.

Miami Dolphins +2.5 over Tennessee Titans (4 units)

I can't believe I'm picking Miami here, as they have underachieved in literally every game so far this season. They just fired their head coach and are looking to turn things around and salvage the season. I think that starts here.

As bad as they've been, they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and I think professional pride is going to kick in for them at some point. Other than the Patriots, Bengals, and Broncos, no one else in the AFC has separated themselves as a playoff lock. A win here and Miami is still somehow in that discussion.

Tennessee was exciting early behind Marcus Mariota, but his rookie regression will likely continue, and the team around him is overmatched by the Dolphins, assuming they come to play. I think they finally will. Miami wins on the road.

Denver Broncos -5 over Cleveland Browns (3 units)

The Browns had a huge division win on the road last Sunday over the once mighty Ravens, but I see a letdown game in their future. Denver's offense is still not really clicking after five weeks, but Von Miller and the defense have kept the Broncos undefeated. Peyton Manning will keep tinkering and he's too smart not to figure out a way to score some points. The offense did not score a touchdown at Oakland last week, so I expect 2-3 scores this week. The Browns are likely to get shutdown, even with DeMarcus Ware on the sidelines for this one. I like the Broncos to win this one easily and cover the five on the road.

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October 08, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 5 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 5 of the 2015 NFL season:

Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over New Orleans Saints (5 units)

My favorite play of the week is the Eagles to cover against the Saints. Although Philadelphia lost to Washington last week, they finally started clicking a bit offensively. Sam Bradford started airing it out, and I think they're primed to put up a lot of points this week against a bad New Orleans defense. I will have a lot of Sam Bradford and Jordan Matthews in my daily fantasy GPP lineups. I think Philly wins big this week. Give the points.

New England Patriots -9.5 over Dallas Cowboys (3 units)

I was leaning Patriots in this game anyway, and then Greg Hardy opened his mouth to give Tom Brady even more motivation to run the score up in this one. New England has already been in step-on-your-throat mode, as they've just been destroying teams without taking their foot off the gas. It's reminiscent of 2007 when they had one of, if not the best, offenses in NFL history.

The Cowboys defense is actually not too bad, but even if Sean Lee is able to play, they're still no match for Brady and the Pats. The Dallas offense just doesn't stand a chance of putting up the amount of points they're going to need to hang around in this one. It's a big spread, but I'm comfortable giving the points.

Washington Redskins +7.5 over Atlanta Falcons (3 units)

Don't look now, but the Redskins have a decent football team. Coming off a big division win over the Eagles, Washington will look to carry that momentum into Atlanta. The Falcons are playing great, but in my opinion, they are over-achieving a bit. I'm not expecting another three-touchdown game from Devonta Freeman, and while Julio Jones will be tough to slow down, I like the Redskins to keep this one close.

Finishing that last drive to win the game was big for Kirk Cousins and the entire team's confidence. They probably should have beaten Miami in Week One and would be sporting a 3-1 record if they did. I like them to stay within a touchdown here and slow Atlanta down.

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October 01, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 4 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 4 of the 2015 NFL season:

Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 over Indianapolis Colts (4 units)

It appears that Andrew Luck is dealing with a shoulder injury. It won't keep him out of the game, but it contributes to explaining why the Colts offense has been thoroughly unimpressive. They did pick up their first win of the season in a tight game against the Titans last week, but they still struggled on both sides of the ball.

Jacksonville is a bad team, but in a division game against what looks like a marginal team, I think this is too many points. I particularly liked it at the beginning of the week, at 9.5 or 10 depending on the site, but I still like it at 8.5.

New York Giants +5.5 over Buffalo Bills (4 units)

The Giants are a couple moronic plays away from being 3-0, and if that was the case, this spread would probably be in the range of Buffalo giving a point or two. Instead, the Giants are getting 5.5 in a game between what I feel are comparable teams.

Buffalo has a great defense, but they did get shredded badly by New England. The Giants offense has not looked as good as it should in my opinion thus far, but Eli Manning has not been turning the ball over. If he can continue that trend, I think this will be a close game, and I'm happy to take the points here.

Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (3 units)

The Bengals are off to a great start behind some amazing offensive production from Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. The Chiefs started out looking quite impressive but are coming off a beating at the hands of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Still, Rodgers makes most teams look bad.

The Chief offense starting putting things together a little more in the second half, but it's their defense and pass rush as to why I like them to at least keep this one close. Kansas City needs it more to stay in the hunt, and I think they will rise to the occasion. I like them to win outright in Cincy, so I'll definitely grab the 4.5.

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September 27, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 3 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season:

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 over Tennessee Titans (4 units)

So if you haven't started fading my picks yet, you probably should start after my 1-5 start to the year. That said, I'm going to proceed to tell you why the Colts are gong to cover this week. I don't usually like small road favorites, but after an 0-2 start, Indianapolis needs to get a win. I like Andrew Luck to have his first big game of the year and I expect to see a lot of offense.

While they may not have been the second best team in the AFC last year, they still made the Conference Finals last year and have gone progressively farther in each season since drafting Luck. Historically, the Colts have owned the division since he came into the league. I like the Colts to win this one and I'll give the points.

Seattle Seahawks -15 over Chicago Bears (4 units)

In sticking with the theme, I also hate giving a lot of points in a league with so much parity. This happens to be the perfect storm of a game that i expect to look something like a 38-0 type game.

The Seahawks are the toughest team to play at home with their infamous 12th man advantage. They're also off to an 0-2 start, so they will be in desperate need of a win. They're getting Kam Chancellor back, who will be looking to make sure his presence is felt.

In addition, the Bears are an absolute mess. Jay Cutler is out, and just about everyone of any impact on the offensive side is questionable to even play or out (Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffrey, etc.). I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple turnovers for the Bears in a game that shouldn't be close. Seattle wins big.

Minnesota Vikings -1 over San Diego Chargers (3 units)

The Vikings were a huge disappointment Week 1 on Monday Night against San Francisco. They played much better last week and got their first win of the year. I like Adrian Peterson to get his first and possibly second touchdown of the season and I like the Vikings in a close one here. The Chargers have a pretty dangerous receiving corps, but they may be missing Ladarius Green, and I like the Viking defense to have a strong showing. Vikings in a 28-23ish game.

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September 18, 2015

2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 2 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 2 of the 2015 NFL season:

Miami Dolphins -6 over Jacksonville Jaguars (5 units)

Miami was not impressive in Week 1 and barely escaped Washington with a win. Lucky for them, Week 2 is a trip to Jacksonville to face the perennially terrible Jaguars. I expect bigger things out of their offense this week, with Ryan Tannehill and Jarvis Landry putting up much better numbers. Landry had the punt return for a TD Week 1, and he did snag eight catches, but for just 53 yards. Miami should look more like the team we expected this week and I like them to win easily on the road.

Baltimore Ravens -7 over Oakland Raiders (3 units)

Baltimore's defense was impressive against Denver Week 1, and were a big reason why people were questioning if Peyton Manning is finally done all week. The offense couldn't get going, though, and the Ravens took the loss. However, I expect them to bounce back at Oakland. It's looking like David Carr will play, but the young Raider QB will have his hands full this week. Give the 6.5.

Houston Texans +3 over Carolina Panthers (3 units)

I wasn't impressed with Carolina Week 1 against the Jags. Their offense doesn't appear very dangerous and I don't think Cam Newton can only carry the team too far virtually by himself. Greg Olsen was a non-factor Week 1 and while the team put up 20 points, only 13 were scored by the offense. Houston appears to be making a quick quarterback change, but whether it's Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallet, I like Houston to win this one outright.

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September 07, 2015

Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Only days away from the start of the 2015 NFL season (finally, right?!), here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season:

New York Jets -3 over Cleveland Browns (3 units)

The first week of the season is always tough to pick. The preseason can only tell us so much, so there's a lot of speculation about how teams' new additions will mesh together. The Browns added journeyman quarterback Josh McCown, who has won the starting job. They have also added rookie running back Duke Johnson to pair with Isaiah Crowell out of the backfield.

The Jets, however, have made some additions of their own, adding Darrelle Revis back from New England. They also got Brandon Marshall, who combined with Eric Decker, form a pretty solid duo for a generally anemic offense.

The AFC East has improved a great deal across the board, and the Jets open with a very winnable game. I like them to limit Cleveland's offense and cover the field goal.

Washington Redskins + 4 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

I'd expect most people to laugh at this pick. The Redskins have been an absolute mess and the RG3 drama is seemingly never ending. However, now that Kirk Cousins has been officially handed the team, I think the team is going to rally behind him. It might not last long, and by Week 7, they may be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

But for now, it's a clean slate. They can carry the emotion of having something to prove after the media circus everyone has been laughing at for the entire offseason.

I expect Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins to have a good year, and compete for the division, but I think they're going to have a tougher game than one might think Week 1. The Redskins at +160 is interesting to me, and I'm definitely taking the home underdog and the points here.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 over Carolina Panthers (3 units)

The Carolina Panthers took a big blow to their seasons hopes with the loss of Kelvin Benjamin for the year. I like Cam Newton, but the NFC South has been a division in constant flux the last several years, and I'm just not a big believer in the Panthers.

They have had offensive struggles in the past, and I expect more of the same this year with Benjamin going down. Cam is looking at mediocre receivers like Ted Ginn Jr. and Jericho Cotchery. They are hoping the rookie, Devin Funchess, will step in and replace Benjamin's production, but I'm not betting on it.

The Jags have their own issues, coming off a three win season. Blake Bortles has a lot of potential, though, and I think we'll see a lot of improvement this year. I'll take another home underdog with the Jags and the points here.

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December 28, 2014

Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Trifone

Here are my Week 17 picks against the spread:

Chicago Bears +6 over Minnesota Vikings (4 units)

I've picked against Chicago for several weeks now, but I actually think they will go out with a win. I expect Jay Cutler to have a good game after the embarrassment of getting benched last week.

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Carolina Panthers +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons (3 units)

The division as a whole has been incredibly inconsistent, but one of these two teams will host a playoff game. The Falcons may pull it out, but I'll take the points in what should be a tight game.

San Diego Chargers -1 over Kansas City Chiefs (5 units)

With Alex Smith out, I don't like Kansas City's chances to win this one. San Diego fought back from 21 down to beat the Niners, and should be able to beat the Chiefs second-string QB.

St. Louis Rams +12 over Seattle Seahawks (3 units)

The Seahawks will likely wrap up home field or a first-round bye, but the Rams play them tough. St. Louis did not play well the last two weeks as a favorite, but have played tough when they're a dog. I think they play their division rival tough this week and cover.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

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December 07, 2014

Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Trifone

Here are my Week 14 picks against the spread:

San Diego Chargers +4 over New England Patriots (3 units)

San Diego went through a little lull in the middle of the year, but they are back playing good football. They got a big win at Baltimore last week and will need to carry that momentum into this week to beat New England. The game could go either way, but I like the Chargers to at least keep it close.

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San Francisco 49ers -9 over Oakland Raiders (3 units)

Now that the Raiders have gotten their first win, I don't think they will be playing with the same intensity. They got crushed last week, 52-0, and this week will host the 49ers. San Francisco needs a win to stay in the hunt, after a bad loss to the Seahawks. Colin Kaepernick has received a lot of justified criticism of late, and I think the offense will bounce back from only scoring three last week. SF should win this one with relative ease.

New York Giants -1.5 over Tennessee Titans (4 units)

The Titans are a bad football team. The Giants have played terribly, but the sum of their parts should really be much better. Last week's loss to the Jags after a 21-3 lead looks to me like rock bottom, and I believe the team will go into Tennessee playing for professional pride. As essentially a pick'em game, I like the Giants to win this one.

New York Jets +6 over Minnesota Vikings (4 units)

The Jets were very competitive last week hosting Miami and almost won it. With Geno Smith back as starter, he is playing for any chance he might have to remain the starter going into next year or to impress another team. I'll take the points here on a team who has a poor record, but still plays hard for their coach.

Detroit Lions -10 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 units)

The Lions seem destined for the playoffs and I don't see Tampa as a major road block. The Lions defense should feast this week, and I think they will keep the Bucs scoring to a minimum.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

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November 30, 2014

Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Trifone

Here are my Week 13 picks against the spread:

Washington Redskins +10 over Indianapolis Colts (4 units)

With RG3 being benched this week, the Redskins will look for a jolt from Colt McCoy, who won his only start over Dallas earlier in the year. I'm not sure if he'll have the magic to win another, but I do think they can keep it within 10. The Colts have also not looked like a team that has real championship aspirations, like many thought they would be.

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New York Giants -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (5 units)

I liked this game a lot better when it was 2.5, but I still feel confident that the Giants will cover. Odell Beckham has been incredible, and while they could not finish against Dallas last week, I believe they will this week against a much weaker opponent.

Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings (4 units)

The Vikings are a better team than was expected this year, and the Panthers are substantially worse. However, Carolina is only a half game out of the playoffs at 3-7-1. If they can figure out a few things, they can remain in the hunt and possibly win the division. I think Cam Newton will play better this week and get the win on the road.

New Orleans Saints +5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 units)

I took New Orleans last week to avoid a three-game skid on the road, and was wrong. It's with a lesser degree of confidence that I take them with the points going to Pittsburgh. Drew Brees has to start playing better, and I believe he will. I like the Steelers to win close.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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