Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings Tournament "Draft" for Week 17
Sean Beazley and I collaborated recently on putting together a tournament lineup for DraftKings main slate (Sunday games only) of Week 17 games.
Essentially, it was a draft with each of us alternating picks for the lineup. Sean had the first and odd-numbered picks; I had the second and even-numbered picks.
Below we will include analysis of each pick, but here is how the final roster shaped up:
Below are the players in the order they were "drafted" (with comments by boths us):
1. Sean - Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($7,200): The Seahawks have one of the easiest matchups on the slate with a game vs. the 49ers. The Seahawks are one of the playoff teams with something to play for. With Tyler Lockett out for the rest of the year, Baldwin should get peppered with targets. He is very likely to be one of the highest-owned WRs this week, but I think he could 4-5x his price. I will have at least 30% exposure this week.
Comments by Kevin: Baldwin exploded for 13/171/1 on 19 targets against the Cardinals in Week 16. While he may not match last week's career-best numbers, the matchup against the 49ers is about as good as it gets and Baldwin had a nearly identical line (8/164/1) the first time he faced the Niners this season. In a week full of many meaningless games, the Seahawks can earn a first-round bye with a win and Falcons loss.
2. Kevin - Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900): One of my favorite plays of the week, as noted in our Week 17 DFS Roundtable post, Rodgers is set up for a massive workload. Not only is Doug Martin (four-game suspension) out again, but Charles Sims was placed on IR this week. Earlier in the year, Rodgers had 35 touches against the Panthers when both Martin and Sims were out. While I don't expect 35 touches, it's possible that 'Quizz sees in the neighborhood of 25 touches as home favorites and one of seven teams projected to score 25-plus points based on implied totals from Vegas odds.
Comments by Sean: When Doug Martin and Charles Sims were out earlier this year, we saw Rodgers get around 30 touches per game. Carolina has absolutely nothing to play for here, and while the Bucs are pretty much drawing dead, they do have a shot so they will be all over this one. Rodgers, like Baldwin, will be popular I believe, but he should pay off his price given the volume.
3. Sean - Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions ($6,000): The Lions/Packers game is the chalk game to stack this week. It's a winner-take-all, and it's the prime time hammer. Taking Stafford over Aaron Rodgers gets you almost $2K of savings, which I think is significant given I think each QB has the same ceiling.
Comments by Kevin: Playing in the final game of the week (and regular season), Stafford and the Lions are small home underdogs against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in a win-and-in matchup. Speaking of matchups, it's good for Stafford as the Packers have allowed an NFL-high 8.0 yards per pass attempt and only the Browns (33) have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Packers (30). Earlier this season, Stafford threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns against Green Bay.
4. Kevin - Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions ($6,600): With a minimum of five catches in nine of his past 10 games, Tate has averaged 6.8/86.6 on 9.4 targets per game over that stretch. Not only should he see steady volume in a fantasy-friendly matchup (only Titans allow more DK points to opposing WRs) with plenty of real football significance, but he has shown upside with four top-five PPR finishes during that 10-game span.
Comments by Sean: If I am playing Stafford, I am definitely pairing him with Tate. Tate has had double-digit targets in three of his last four. It wouldn't surprise me here to see Tate flirt with 10+ receptions in this one especially if the Lions are playing from behind. My only fear here is the Lions get ahead and control the clock like they did vs. the Saints earlier this year. I won't have all my eggs into this game like I did that one.
5. Sean - Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers ($5,700): Jordy Nelson will likely be the highest-owned WR of the week. He is off a monster game so you have the recency bias, plus he is in a killer spot vs. the Lions. Jordy should see a majority of Darius Slay which is why I am going heavy Adams. Slay isn't a shut-down corner by any means, but Rodgers isn't afraid to spread the ball around. Adams has 30-point upside and should be 15-20% less owned than Jordy.
Comments by Kevin: With more from the running game these days, Adams now has six consecutive games with five or fewer receptions. That said, Adams has four 100-yard games in his past 10 and a total of 10 scores this season. Given how often Aaron Rodgers looks his way in the red zone, Adams has enormous upside and should be much less-owned than Jordy this week.
6. Kevin - Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($5,800): If you started Rawls in DFS or season-long leagues last week, he let you down even before he departed with a shoulder injury. Rawls will be good to go in Week 17 and the matchup means that Rawls could turn even a reduced workload into 100 yards and a score or two. Rawls didn't play in the first matchup, but Christine Michael had 20/106/2 in that game for the Seahawks. Unless you're Todd Gurley, who doesn't run for 100 yards against the 49ers? The only concern here is a potential blowout early or the Falcons establish a big lead early over the Saints. Either scenario could keep Rawls on the sidelines in the third and/or fourth quarters.
Comments by Sean: I got burned by Rawls last week big time. I had a couple of lineups in the 190 range with Rawls as my lone bust. I am not afraid to go back to the well here. The 49ers get destroyed in every aspect of the game. The Seahawks should cruise in this one which should lead to plenty of Rawls touches late.
7. Sean - Jared Cook, TE, Green Bay Packers ($3,100): I think the TE lock of the week will be Travis Kelce. Kelce has dominated the position this season. Given our team is pretty much chalk spots/players, I am going a little off the board here with Cook. Pairing Adams/Cook and fading Jordy could be extremely profitable if Rodgers has a big game. The Lions have been better vs. TE lately, but at one point this year you were just locking in opposing TEs vs. them.
Comments by Kevin: Cook is the boom-or-bust type play that makes sense for GPPs. Typically I roster him in his "bust" weeks, however, so I typically have limited exposure. Given the matchup, this has the potential to be one of his "boom" weeks.
8. Kevin - Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($8,400): Active after a two-game absence, Jones had a mediocre 4/60 on seven targets in a 17-point win last week. Putting in a full practice on Friday, Jones should be more involved in a potential shootout against Drew Brees and the Saints. No team is projected to score more points this week than the Falcons and Jones has GPP-winning upside when healthy.
Comments by Sean: Another player that burned me last week was Jones. For whatever reason, the Falcons just don't look to Julio in the red zone, which means his production is basically reliant on long pass plays. Atlanta still has a shot at the No. 2 seed so It's pedal to the medal for the Falcons. I think the Ryan/Julio stack will be very low-owned even with a great matchup vs. the Saints.
9. Kevin - New York Jets DST ($2,300): The Jets have been a massive disappointment this season, but there is reason for some Week 17 optimism. That reason, of course, is E.J. Manuel. With Tyrod Taylor on the bench, the Bills will roll out the former first-round bust out of Florida State on Sunday. At their price point, I'm willing to roll the dice on the Jets defense this week.
Comments by Sean: There are a lot of defenses I like this week. One of those defenses for GPPs is the Jets. You get them at 1K savings off the rest of the ones I like, and they get a good matchup vs. E.J. Manuel, who will probably be rusty. This is a GPP play only as the Jets have been destroyed in recent weeks.
Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings:
- Week 17 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
- Week 17 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
- Week 17 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
- Week 17 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
Week 17 DFS Resources:
- Week 17 DFS DraftKings Cheat Sheet
- Week 17 DFS FanDuel Cheat Sheet
- Week 17 DFS FantasyAces Cheat Sheet