2014 Fantasy Football Week 16 Start'em, Sit'em
When Washington and Philadelphia met in Week 3, neither of the current starting quarterbacks played in that game.
To be honest, I would have thought you were crazy if you told me then that both RG3 and Mark Sanchez would appear on the "start'em" side of this column for Championship Week. But here we are and both of them are viable options as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks for Week 16.
That said, it's not a universal start recommendation for RG3 or Sanchez (or any player on this list). Ultimately, the decision will come down to the other options on your roster, if applicable.
As my 11th-ranked fantasy quarterback in Week 16, Sanchez is a viable option for those in a 12-team league. That said, if you have Drew Brees and Sanchez as the quarterbacks, you should start Brees, who I have ranked ahead of all quarterbacks not named Aaron Rodgers.
So, in other words, my fantasy football rankings are a better guage of which player I would start out of multiple options.
With this column, however, the goal is to highlight players with favorable (or unfavorable) matchups that I may not otherwise start (or sit) or those that I like (or dislike) more than usual.
Looking ahead to the rest of this week's games, here are some players to consider starting:
QB - Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (vs. PHI)
Coming on in relief of an injured Colt McCoy, RG3 had his best outing of the season last week as he finished eighth in fantasy points among quarterbacks, an encouraging sign for those considering him this week. It's been a quarterback carousel in the nation's capital and Kirk Cousins made his first start of the season in Week 3 against Philly. In that game, he threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns and finished as the QB2 for the week. In their 14 games this season, the Eagles have allowed 11 of them to finish as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. With such a favorable matchup, I expect RG3 to continue to build positive momentum at the most critical point in the fantasy football season.
QB - Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS)
Based on projected point totals using Vegas odds, only the Saints and Packers are projected to score more points this week than the Eagles (29.50). In addition, no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Redskins, who have surrendered 10 passing touchdowns over their past three games. Sanchez is coming off back-to-back disappointing performances (10.54 and 6.08 fantasy points, respectively), but the matchup is too good for him to not bounce back this week.
Over the past three games, Bell has finished the week as the RB4, RB3 and RB11, respectively. The first game of that span was against the Bears, who will try to slow him down on a short week. Given that the Bears have benched quarterback Jay Cutler, the line has increased from 7.0 to 9.5 points and there's a good chance that the Lions are playing with the lead for most of this game. Bell has a total of 87 touches over his past four games and I'd expect another heavy workload (and productive outing) from him again in Week 16.
Coming off a disappointing performance against the Patriots, who have been playing much better run defense recently, Miller gets a favorable matchup this week against the Vikings, who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Miller hasn't had many great games, but he's had a lot of good/useful games. Miller has finished as a top-21 fantasy running back in 10 of his 14 games and has the 13th-most fantasy points scored in total among running backs this season.
Like Miller, Jackson is coming off a disappointing performance (5.7 fantasy points, RB42) last week. That said, Jackson has finished as a top-22 fantasy running back in five of his previous six games. During that six-game span, S-Jax had a minimum of 18 touches in five of those games. With the Saints allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Jackson is a great candidate to have a bounce-back week.
Man, I was so wrong on Gerhart. I was all-in on him being a strong RB2 for 2014, but that obviously did not happen. With an 86/265/1 rushing line heading into Week 16, it may be difficult to trust Gerhart. Given the season-ending injury to Denard Robinson, however, Gerhart should see the largest share of the workload in one of the few games in which the Jags are favored against a team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Tempering expectations a bit, Gerhart is ranked just inside my top-24 running backs for the week.
At this point in the season, ODB has become a no-brainer must-start, but it's amazing what he has done especially considering the hamstring injury that kept him out of almost all of training camp, the preseason and the first four regular-season games. That said, ODB leads all rookie receivers in receiving yards (972) despite playing only 10 games. Beckham Jr. has a minimum of six catches and 90 yards in seven consecutive games, which ties an NFL record.
WR - Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. GB)
Evans has less than 50 receiving yards in four consecutive games and a total of only 13 catches during that span. That said, four of those 13 receptions have been caught for a touchdown. Evans didn't get his first NFL touchdown until Week 4, but he has a total of 11 touchdowns in his past 10 games played. In a game where the Bucs should be playing most of it from behind, Evans gets a favorable matchup as the Packers allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
Jackson has been a bit of a boom-or-bust fantasy option throughout his career and this season has been no different. To be fair, he has played with three different quarterbacks. D-Jax has failed to finish as a top-50 fantasy wide receiver in three of his past four games. That said, I expect a performance from D-Jax closer to the outing (117 yards and a TD) he had the first time he faced his former team. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Eagles.
Hopkins has really stepped up his performance in his second season as he has 69 receptions for 1,167 yards and six touchdowns through Week 15. The quarterback situation has been less than ideal for the Texans and gets even worse as they move on to their fourth quarterback this week. That said, the matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, is too tasty to consider benching Hopkins assuming that he plays this week. (Note: Hopkins is currently dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as a "game-time decision.")
On the year, Kelce has scored the ninth-most fantasy points among tight ends this season even though he hasn't always seen the number of snaps or targets that fantasy owners would like. In their past five games, the Steelers have allowed four top-10 performances to opposing tight ends. Meanwhile, Kelce has finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end in three of his past four games.
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Here are some players to consider keeping on your fantasy bench(es):
The 49ers have allowed only one 300-yard game this season (Peyton Manning) and have held opposing quarterbacks to just one touchdown or less in nine of 14 games. Not only is the matchup difficult, but Rivers is dealing with a back injury. While the injury won't keep him out of the game, it could limit his effectiveness. In addition, Rivers will be without his most talented receiver (Keenan Allen).
While the other quarterback in this game has a tough matchup, Kaepernick's matchup is neutral -- San Diego has surrendered the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. That said, Kaep has scored less than 15 fantasy points in eight consecutive games for an average of 11.01 during that span. In those eight games, he has thrown six touchdowns (no more than one in any game) and six interceptions. And over the past five games, he has thrown for less than 200 yards four times.
In his four games as a Patriot, Blount has averaged double-digit fantasy points per game. And we've seen how effective he could be with them at the end of last season. If anything, however, this week's game shapes up to be one that features Shane Vereen. In fact, Vereen was the top-scoring fantasy running back in Week 7 when they faced the Jets the first time around. Granted, Blount was a Steeler at the time, but he's hard to count on Blount this week as the Jets allow only 87.5 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry.
As well as Jeremy Hill has run the ball lately, Bernard is clearly the "2" in the team's 1-2 rushing attack. Even though Bernard had 18 touches last week for a total of 104 yards, he finished outside the top-24 fantasy running backs in each of his previous three games. For me, Bernard is more of a flex option against the tough Broncos run defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position this year.
Sitting out of practice in back-to-back days, Mathews could end up missing his second straight game due to an ankle injury. If he plays, however, he should remain on your bench against the 49ers. The 49ers rank eighth in the NFL in rushing defense (101.1 YPG). If he sits, I'd keep both Branden Oliver and Donald Brown on my bench as well.
Over the past four games, Harvin has finished as the week's WR100, WR70, WR9 and WR94. Aside from the 6/124/1 line in Week 14, Harvin has a total of two catches for eight yards on 11 targets in the other three games during that span. Even though Harvin also gets some production out of his rushing attempts, he should be on your bench facing a defense that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
The good news is that Crabtree won't face the Seahawks this week. Facing them twice in the past three games, Crabtree has a total of 85 yards over the past three games. That said, Crabtree has finished outside of the top 30 fantasy wide receivers in seven of his past eight games and it's difficult to trust him given the overall struggles of the passing offense.
The good news is that Fitzgerald has 11 receptions on 19 targets in his past two games. The bad news is that he has only 64 yards -- 5.8 per reception and 3.4 per target -- in those two games. Now he and the Cardinals will face the league's best pass defense with Ryan Lindley under center. The 11-3 Cardinals are projected by Vegas to score the fewest points this week and none of Arizona's offensive options are in play.
Since scoring three touchdowns in Week 4, Donnell has scored a total of only two touchdowns in the past 10 games. Part of that has been the emergence of ODB, who has dominated Eli Manning's targets. Donnell has now finished outside the top-20 fantasy tight ends in four consecutive games with an average of just 2.45 fantasy points per game. Allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, the Rams have allowed only one top-12 performance to opposing tight ends this season.
To see who I would start based on your team, please consult with my Week 16 rankings:
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings