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Monday Night Football: Tony Romo threw 5 INTs and had a fumble.  The Buffalo Bills had 3 return TDs (2 on INTs and 1 on a kickoff).  Based on those numbers, who would have expected the 'Boys to emerge victorious?  They did however and, to quote T.O., they won on Nick Folk's "106-yard FG" - (referring to the back-to-back 53-yarders he made because Dick Jurron called a timeout just before the 1st make).

100-yard rushers: This past week had 7 100-yard rushers and the majority (4) of them were "back-ups": Michael Turner (SD), Kenton Keith (IND) - who played in place of injured starter Joseph Addai, Sammy Morris (NE) - who started in place of injured starter Laurence Maroney and Brian Leonard (STL) - who started in place of Steven Jackson.  That is even more impressive when you compare them to this week's performance of 12 yards for Larry Johnson (KC), 25 yards  for Shaun Alexander (SEA) and 52 yards for Frank Gore (SF). 

The starters who had 100+ yards were Ronnie Brown (MIA), Willie Parker (PIT) and Brandon Jacobs (NYG).

So far this season, there are 3 NFL RBs that have averaged 100+ ypg rushing through week 5: Lamont Jordan (OAK) 106.0 ypg, Joseph Addai (IND) 101.8 ypg and Willie Parker (PIT) 101.4 ypg.  After last season's performance, can you believe that Jordan (and the Raiders) are leading the league in rushing ypg for player and team, respectively?

Pace: Tom Brady (NE) is on pace to put up the following statistics: 4426 yds (4413), 51 TDs (31), 6 INTs and 74.1% completion percentage (68.3%).  (2006 league leaders in parenthesis.) 

Did you know that David Carr (CAR) was the 2006 league leader in completion percentage at 68.3%?  In fact, Tony Romo (despite last year's inconsistency) was 2nd best.  Peyton Manning (IND) was 3rd.

Posted by edsfootball at 12:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Heading into Week 5, there are 4 undefeated teams: 2 in the NFC (DAL and GB) and 2 in the AFC (IND and NE).  Earlier in the week, I wrote a preview of the next quarter-season worth of games for the 2 NFC unbeaten teams.  Today it's the Colts' and Pats' turn.

It is no surprise that the defending Super Bowl champion and the team that has won 3 Super Bowls this decade are unbeaten after 4 games.  In our all-new Domination Index, these teams rank 1st and 2nd, respectively.  

New England Patriots: The Patriots just take care of business.  With all the turmoil surrounding the "Spygate" scandal, they thumped the Chargers, who was a team most expected to be one of the best 3 in the NFL.  Tom Brady has the biggest weapon he's ever had in Randy Moss, who makes it look easy.  Moss has had 4 straight 100-yard receiving games and scored a TD in all 4 games.  In fact, he's had 2 TDs in each of his past 3 games.

Defensively, newly-acquired Adalius Thomas is making plays, they get Rodney Harrison back for this week's game after serving his suspension and Richard Seymour should be back from injury soon.  It's a case of the "rich getting richer".

Here are their next 4 games:

• Cleveland: The Browns have given up the most passing TDs in the NFL.  If it weren't for the "Humble Pie" t-shirts the Pats have been wearing this week, Brady, Moss & Co would be salivating.  The Browns offense is improved from last season...heck, from week 1 with Derek Anderson replacing Charlie Frye.  But the Pats are too good on offense/defense/special teams/coaching to lose.  The Pats will win in a rout to remain unbeaten.

• at Dallas: This is the game of the year (until the next one - haha).  The Pats will head to Big D for a battle of unbeatens in what many are calling a Super Bowl Preview.  Of course, the season is early with lots of football to play, but it will give us a closer look at the 2 highest-scoring teams in the league and be a true test of their respective defenses.  As a Cowboys fan I hate to say this, but I believe the Pats will emerge victorious as they are the most complete team in the NFL.

• at Miami: Unbeaten vs Winless. What drama! Not really, but the the Dolphins have been giving up nearly 200 rushing ypg, which ranks last in the league.  The Pats will run all over the Dolphins literally and they will remain unbeaten and winless, respectively.

• Washington: This game will be tougher for the Pats than the Dolphins game, but I'm not a big believer in the Redskins early-season success (2-1).  Jason Campbell is a young but improving and maturing QB and the Redskins have a good secondary with Sean Taylor, LaRon Landry, Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers.  The Pats will take care of business at home vs the 'Skins and not look forward to the game we will be looking forward to: (Colts/Pats in week 9).

Indianapolis Colts: The Pats have been dominant and most would probably refer to them as being the most dominant team in the league.  However, based on the 8 statistical categories that comprise EDSFootball.com's Domination Index, the Pats actually rank 2nd behind the Colts.

Despite losing both starting CBs to free agency and Booger McFarland to injury, the Colts defense has been solid.  As long as Bob Sanders can stay healthy, the run defense will continue to be much-improved over last year.  On offense, Dallas Clark leads TEs in TD catches, Joseph Addai is considered a Top 5 back and the Manning-Harrison-Wayne passing trio are as good as it gets.

Let's take a look at their next quarter-season:

• Tampa Bay: Tony Dungy's old team comes into the RCA Dome sitting atop the NFC South, in their normal worst-to-first tradition.  They will be without Cadillac Williams for the rest of the season.  The Bucs have the best scoring defense in the league, but haven't faced an offense like the Colts offense.  And Joey Galloway has been 1 of only 3 receivers to have 3 40-yard receptions.  (The other 2 are Randy Moss and Roy Williams).  As long as the Colts don't give up the big play to Galloway, the Colts will remain unbeaten heading into their bye week.

• at Jacksonville: The Jags are one of the most physical teams in the league and after allowing 175 yards to the Titans Chris Brown in week 1, have held the Falcons (week 2) and Broncos (week 3) to 82 and 47 yards, respectively.  In fact, Travis Henry, who leads the league in rushing through 4 weeks, was held to 35 yards on 11 carries.  The problem with the Jags is their rushing offense has been horrible.  Maurice Jones-Drew only has 100 yards rushing after 3 weeks - Jags QB David Garrard has 99.  After scoring 13 TDs in 2006, Jones-Drew hasn't scored a TD this year either.  The Colts will win in a close game that goes down to the wire.
  

• at Carolina: The Panthers are 2-2, but in disarray.  They face the Saints this week in a key match-up for both teams.  The Saints are 0-3 after getting to the NFC Championship last year.  Both of these teams need to win week 5.  If the Panthers lose their week 5 game after Kris Jenkins called out his teammates and said they are playing with no passion/heart, their season could potentially spiral out of control.  That's the danger of making public those kind of comments.  I expect the Saints to win at home and beat the Panthers, which means I worry that the Panthers could struggle even more after that game and the Colts will dominate the Panthers.  (Of course, the Panthers momentum will be completely different if they play inspired and win week 5).  In either case, the Colts have more talent and should remain undefeated heading into the biggest game of the year (part II).
  

• New England: Colts vs Pats.  Probably the best rivalry in the NFL this decade.  Both teams have combined for 4 Super Bowls this decade and the balance has recently shifted to the Colts from the Pats in the head-to-head match-ups.  If both teams head into this game unbeaten (as I expect), the topic everyone starts discussing after the game will be whether or not the winner can go undefeated for the whole season.  Probably an unwelcome distraction for both teams - although their coaches will probably serve them some "humble pie".
  

  The RCA Dome is going to be electric for this one.  The Colts offense is just as good as the Pats offense, but the Pats defense is much better than the Colts defense (even though they're better than most give them credit for).  The Pats have allowed only 226 ypg and that's w/o Harrison and Seymour.  Aside from the Steelers, the next closest team is giving up 60 ypg more.  I expect this one to be close and go down to the wire (maybe even go to OT), but I expect the Pats to pull this out on the road.
  

Posted by edsfootball at 12:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Through 4 weeks of play, there are 4 undefeated teams: DAL, GB, NE and IND.  Perhaps most of you expected the Colts and Pats to be undefeated at this point in the season.  Many expected the Cowboys to do well (including this site as our pre-season pick to win th NFC East).  However, less expected them to dominate their competition the way they have.

The biggest surprise though has been the Packers.  Even more surprising is how they've done it.  Their defense is one of the best and most underrated in the league.  But they've managed to win every game thus far despite having the worst offensive rushing yards per game in the NFL (54.3 ypg).

Let's take a look at the next quarter of the season for the 2 NFC unbeaten teams:

Dallas Cowboys: Speculation about how Romo would recover from a botched snap has been answered.  Without Terry Glenn, Romo's rapport with T.O. and Witten has grown and both are near the top of stats for WRs and TEs, respectively.  Defensively, DeMarcus Ware continues to improve, Terrence Newman and Greg Ellis are back and the Cowboys are tied for the league lead in INTs with 9.

Here are the Cowboys next 4 games (bye: week 8):

• at Buffalo: In our all new Domination Index, the Bills rank 31st in the NFL.  The Cowboys will beat up on the Bills setting up a match-up between 2 unbeatens in week 6.

• New England: Although the season is early, this could be a Super Bowl preview.  Randy Moss has been the most dominant WR in the league, getting 100+ yards in all 4 of his games with NE.  No other WR has started his career with that much success with a new team.  This game is a 4 p.m. game and before the part of the season that the NFL institutes their flex scheduling.  I feel sorry for anyone that doesn't have this as their local game and doesn't have the Dish.  The Pats get Rodney Harrison back for their week 5 game vs Cleveland and will likely have Richard Seymour back for this game.  This will be the game of the year up to this point and (although it pains me to say this as a Cowboys fan) the Pats will remain undefeated.

• Minnesota: Adrian Peterson has started his career as well as anyone could have expected and the Vikings have a great run defense with the Pat and Kevin Williams clogging up the middle.  But that's not enough to stop the best team in the NFC at home.  The Cowboys will win this game.  (Not to mention that the Cowboys are undefeated when I'm in the stands and I'll be flying into town for this game - hehe.)

• at Philadelphia: The Eagles are better than their 1-3 record indicates.  I can't write them off yet.  If the 'Boys beat the Pats week 6, this will be the next big test.  The Eagles should be healthy by then and have Westbrook and Dawkins back.  But based on how both teams look at this point, the Cowboys are a much stronger team and will emerge victorious.

After week 9, the Cowboys will be 7-1.

Green Bay Packers: Brett Favre now holds the career record for most passing TDs.  He's going to break Dan Marino's passing yards record this season as well.  He entered the season needing only 3,851 yards to do so and at a 300+ ypg pace, he will break it in his 13th game.  The running game, however, has been non-existent.  The Pack rank dead last in the NFL.  The defense, however, is young and getting better. 

Here are the Packers next 4 games (bye: week 7):

• Chicago: At home, they should beat the Bears who can't seem to do anything right (Devin Hester excluded).  They start Griese over Grossman to manage the game better (i.e., not turn the ball over) and he throws 3 picks.  They give up 34 points in the 4th quarter, an NFL record and not the good kind.  Although this game has the potential to be a trap game, the Packers will win at home as Favre lights up a decimated secondary.

• Washington: The 'Skins are tougher than I thought they would be, but I think it will tough to win at Lambeau.  The Packers should win this game setting up a big MNF game where they will be 6-0.

• at Denver: This will be a tough test for the Packers.  It's difficult to win at Invesco.  The Broncos have a great secondary and the Packers can't run the ball.  Can Favre & Co air it out vs Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly?  I don't think so.  Not on the road anyways.  The Broncos will hand the Packers their 1st loss.

• at Kansas City: It's tough to win at Arrowhead.  After beating the Chargers last week, the Chiefs have showed that they aren't as bad as most people thought.  Dwayne Bowe is having a great rookie season and LJ is starting to get things going.  At Lambeau, I would say the Packers would win.  At Arrowhead, I think the Chiefs will prevail.

After week 9, the Packers will be 6-2.

Check back tomorrow for a preview of the next quarter season for Tom Brady and the Pats and Peyton Manning and the Colts and see if we predict an undefeated first half for either team... 

Posted by edsfootball at 09:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

After completing week 4 of the NFL schedule, there are 3 winless teams in the NFL: MIA, STL and NO.  (There are 4 undefeated teams: GB, DAL, IND and NE.)  It's unlikely that any of these 3 teams (or any team in future seasons) will go winless for the entire season due to the parity in the league among other factors.  With a quarter of the season completed, let's take a look at the rest of the 1st half (through week 9) for these winless teams.

Not surprisingly, the 3 winless teams have 3 of the worst 4 scoring margins, all of them losing on average by double-digits.  So it hasn't been the result of the being on the wrong side of nail-biters. 

Miami Dolphins: I posted on the blog about the possibility of a team going winless/undefeated a few days before the season began.  The idea was derived from some comments made on ESPN where a radio host predicted that the Dolphins would go winless in 2007.  With Jason Taylor (2006 Defensive Player of Year), Zach Thomas, Joey Porter (acquired from Steelers in off-season) and Channing Crowder, defense should be the strength of this Dolphins team.  Instead of being a strength, only 3 teams have allowed more points/game than Dolphins (29.8 ppg allowed).

Here are the next 4 games (bye: week 9):

• at Houston: I'm not sure whether Andre Johnson/Ahman Green will play for Houston or whether Zach Thomas/Channing Crowder will play for Miami in week 5, but Houston has been playing better than most had expected them to play.  On the road, this will be a tough game for Miami to win. 

• at Cleveland: Cleveland has put up 51 points vs Cincinnati and put up 27 points to upset Baltimore this week.  Despite dealing Charlie Frye to Seattle after a week 1 shallacking by Pittsburgh, the Browns are surprising many.  I don't expect the Dolphins to travel to Cleveland and beat the Browns (1 game out of 1st - did I really just write that?) on the road.

• New England: The only chance the Dolphins would have to beat the Patriots would be if the Pats overlooked the Dolphins.  They take care of business week in, week out, so there's no chance of that happening.  Brady, Moss & Co. will win easily.

• New York Giants: The Giants have talent and provided they don't revert to their undisciplined ways, the Giants should beat up on the Dolphins in this historic "home" game at Wembley Stadium in London.  It may officially be a Dolphins home game, but in addition to traveling further than the Giants, there will be more Giants' fans in attendence.  Giants will win easily.

After week 9, I expect the Dolphins to remain winless at 0-8.  Fortunately, they have the Buffalo Bills on their schedule twice.  The Bills are that other team in the bottom 4 teams in scoring margin with the 3 winless teams.  Good chance the 'Fins split with the Bills.

St. Louis Rams: The "Greatest Show on Turf" has been sidelined with several key injuries.  Losing Orlando Pace is huge (literally), especially with Bulger nursing 2 cracked ribs.  Steven Jackson has a torn groin, missed the Cowboys game and will likely miss more.  Out of the 3 winless teams, the Rams are not the worst (nor the best).  Despite the injuries, one would expect them to score more than 9.8 ppg.  They are dead last in offensive scoring in the NFL.

Here are the next 4 games (bye: week 9):

• Arizona: The Cardinals are 2-2 after handing the Steelers their 1st loss of the season.  I'm not sure how long the two-headed QB scenario will last/work, but the Cards' offense is better than the Rams'.  Edgerrin James is running the ball well in the run-first offense and the Cards have one of the best WR tandems in the league.  With Jackson likely out and Bulger affected by the broken ribs, this won't be a shoot-out.  The Cards will do the shooting and the Rams will get shot.

• at Baltimore: Surprisingly, this may be the easiest game of the four.  Giving up 22.5 ppg, the Ravens defense has not been playing like...well, ummm...the Ravens defense. But it's at M&T and the Ravens are tough to beat there. The Ravens stay undefeated at home.
  

• at Seattle: If it's tough to win in Baltimore, it's even tougher to win in Seattle.  Heck, the Seahawks even retired # 12 - not for a prolific QB but for their fans.  The crowd will make it tough for the Rams to upset the Seahawks on the road.

• Cleveland: The Rams will get their first win at home vs Cleveland.  By this point, the skill-position players should be healthy.  I'm not a big believer in the Browns although they are playing well now.

After week 9, the Rams will be 1-7.

New Orleans Saints: What a difference a year makes!  From NFC Championship Game to winless after week 3 (bye: week 4).  The Saints have looked awful.  There is not a single bright spot to point out.  They are losing on average by 21.3 ppg allowing a league-worse 34.3 ppg.  (St. Louis is next worst in scoring margin with -16 ppg).  Here are some lowlights from last year's top offense: Drew Brees has thrown only 1 TD pass to 7 INTs, Deuce McAllister is out for the year with a torn ACL and Reggie Bush has the same amount of rushing yards (80) as Redskins QB Jason Campbell even though he's had twice as many carries. 

Here are the next 5 games through week 9:

• Carolina: This is an interesting game.  Kris Jenkins called out his Panthers' teammates saying they've played with no passion or heart.  The Panthers are 2-2.  The Saints will get their 1st win at home against the finger-pointing Panthers.

• at Seattle: See above.  Seattle is tough to beat at home.  Actually, they are 1 of only 2 teams to go 8-0 at home twice since 2000.  (The other team to do so - Patriots).

• Atlanta: Atlanta got their 1st win last week.  Despite having a better record, the Saints are a much better team than Atlanta.  The Saints will win this game easily.

• at San Francisco: The Niners' offense has struggled and Frank Gore has gotten off to a slow start as well.  Many people felt that the 49ers had a good chance to win the NFC West (this site included).  Alex Smith and Vernon Davis are both sidelined now, but will probably be back by this game.  The Niners will struggle to get into a rhythm as they integrate their starters back into an offense that was already struggling.  The Saints win this game.

• Jacksonville: A match-up of opposing styles - finesse vs power.  This could be a let-down game for JAX.  The 2 games before this game are IND and TB and the 2 games after it are TEN and SD.  Bush won't be able to run between the tackles vs JAX.  The Saints will use a lot of screens to Bush as an alternative.  However, I think the power style of the Jags will dictate the pace of this game and the Saints will fall short in a close game.

After 9 weeks, the Saints will improve to 3-5.  The Saints won't make a playoff run this year, but a 3-2 stretch after the break will finally give the city of the New Orleans something to smile about.

Come back tomorrow to view our predictions for the unbeaten teams over the next quarter season... 

Posted by edsfootball at 07:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)