4-0 and Counting (Part II)
Heading into Week 5, there are 4 undefeated teams: 2 in the NFC (DAL and GB) and 2 in the AFC (IND and NE). Earlier in the week, I wrote a preview of the next quarter-season worth of games for the 2 NFC unbeaten teams. Today it's the Colts' and Pats' turn.
It is no surprise that the defending Super Bowl champion and the team that has won 3 Super Bowls this decade are unbeaten after 4 games. In our all-new Domination Index, these teams rank 1st and 2nd, respectively.
New England Patriots: The Patriots just take care of business. With all the turmoil surrounding the "Spygate" scandal, they thumped the Chargers, who was a team most expected to be one of the best 3 in the NFL. Tom Brady has the biggest weapon he's ever had in Randy Moss, who makes it look easy. Moss has had 4 straight 100-yard receiving games and scored a TD in all 4 games. In fact, he's had 2 TDs in each of his past 3 games.
Defensively, newly-acquired Adalius Thomas is making plays, they get Rodney Harrison back for this week's game after serving his suspension and Richard Seymour should be back from injury soon. It's a case of the "rich getting richer".
Here are their next 4 games:
Cleveland: The Browns have given up the most passing TDs in the NFL. If it weren't for the "Humble Pie" t-shirts the Pats have been wearing this week, Brady, Moss & Co would be salivating. The Browns offense is improved from last season...heck, from week 1 with Derek Anderson replacing Charlie Frye. But the Pats are too good on offense/defense/special teams/coaching to lose. The Pats will win in a rout to remain unbeaten.
at Dallas: This is the game of the year (until the next one - haha). The Pats will head to Big D for a battle of unbeatens in what many are calling a Super Bowl Preview. Of course, the season is early with lots of football to play, but it will give us a closer look at the 2 highest-scoring teams in the league and be a true test of their respective defenses. As a Cowboys fan I hate to say this, but I believe the Pats will emerge victorious as they are the most complete team in the NFL.
at Miami: Unbeaten vs Winless. What drama! Not really, but the the Dolphins have been giving up nearly 200 rushing ypg, which ranks last in the league. The Pats will run all over the Dolphins literally and they will remain unbeaten and winless, respectively.
Washington: This game will be tougher for the Pats than the Dolphins game, but I'm not a big believer in the Redskins early-season success (2-1). Jason Campbell is a young but improving and maturing QB and the Redskins have a good secondary with Sean Taylor, LaRon Landry, Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers. The Pats will take care of business at home vs the 'Skins and not look forward to the game we will be looking forward to: (Colts/Pats in week 9).
Indianapolis Colts: The Pats have been dominant and most would probably refer to them as being the most dominant team in the league. However, based on the 8 statistical categories that comprise EDSFootball.com's Domination Index, the Pats actually rank 2nd behind the Colts.
Despite losing both starting CBs to free agency and Booger McFarland to injury, the Colts defense has been solid. As long as Bob Sanders can stay healthy, the run defense will continue to be much-improved over last year. On offense, Dallas Clark leads TEs in TD catches, Joseph Addai is considered a Top 5 back and the Manning-Harrison-Wayne passing trio are as good as it gets.
Let's take a look at their next quarter-season:
Tampa Bay: Tony Dungy's old team comes into the RCA Dome sitting atop the NFC South, in their normal worst-to-first tradition. They will be without Cadillac Williams for the rest of the season. The Bucs have the best scoring defense in the league, but haven't faced an offense like the Colts offense. And Joey Galloway has been 1 of only 3 receivers to have 3 40-yard receptions. (The other 2 are Randy Moss and Roy Williams). As long as the Colts don't give up the big play to Galloway, the Colts will remain unbeaten heading into their bye week.
at Jacksonville: The Jags are one of the most physical teams in the league and after allowing 175 yards to the Titans Chris Brown in week 1, have held the Falcons (week 2) and Broncos (week 3) to 82 and 47 yards, respectively. In fact, Travis Henry, who leads the league in rushing through 4 weeks, was held to 35 yards on 11 carries. The problem with the Jags is their rushing offense has been horrible. Maurice Jones-Drew only has 100 yards rushing after 3 weeks - Jags QB David Garrard has 99. After scoring 13 TDs in 2006, Jones-Drew hasn't scored a TD this year either. The Colts will win in a close game that goes down to the wire.
at Carolina: The Panthers are 2-2, but in disarray. They face the Saints this week in a key match-up for both teams. The Saints are 0-3 after getting to the NFC Championship last year. Both of these teams need to win week 5. If the Panthers lose their week 5 game after Kris Jenkins called out his teammates and said they are playing with no passion/heart, their season could potentially spiral out of control. That's the danger of making public those kind of comments. I expect the Saints to win at home and beat the Panthers, which means I worry that the Panthers could struggle even more after that game and the Colts will dominate the Panthers. (Of course, the Panthers momentum will be completely different if they play inspired and win week 5). In either case, the Colts have more talent and should remain undefeated heading into the biggest game of the year (part II).
New England: Colts vs Pats. Probably the best rivalry in the NFL this decade. Both teams have combined for 4 Super Bowls this decade and the balance has recently shifted to the Colts from the Pats in the head-to-head match-ups. If both teams head into this game unbeaten (as I expect), the topic everyone starts discussing after the game will be whether or not the winner can go undefeated for the whole season. Probably an unwelcome distraction for both teams - although their coaches will probably serve them some "humble pie".
The RCA Dome is going to be electric for this one. The Colts offense is just as good as the Pats offense, but the Pats defense is much better than the Colts defense (even though they're better than most give them credit for). The Pats have allowed only 226 ypg and that's w/o Harrison and Seymour. Aside from the Steelers, the next closest team is giving up 60 ypg more. I expect this one to be close and go down to the wire (maybe even go to OT), but I expect the Pats to pull this out on the road.