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I'm not sure.

Something happened in 2007. And it wasn't just the Pats and their players making history. Pats fans became complacent. (Of course, there are exceptions to every rule).

Living in "New England", I first noticed this towards the end of the season as many Pats fans seemed to yawn at the potential of going 16-0. Granted it's (somewhat) meaningless if the Pats don't win the Super Bowl, but this was the first time it has ever happened. Lots of people I know weren't using their December Pats season tickets because they preferred to be "out of the cold".

While listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN Radio this morning on my way to work, they mentioned Packers/Giants tickets were $500+ on Razor Gator (disclosure: I'm a Razor Gator affiliate) and $180+ for Pats/Chargers tickets.

I just checked Stubhub.com (disclosure: I'm a StubHub affiliate) and the 2 cheapest tickets at 10:30 p.m. tonight for Packers/Giants were $549.99 each for 2. The cheapest non-SRO seats for the Pats/Chargers game were $249 each for 2.

If you're in this area (90 minutes from Boston - 90 minutes from NYC), you know tickets for football games tend to be expensive. At the start of the year, tickets to the week 2 Pats home opener vs the Chargers (the same team they play Sunday) cost more than what the AFC Championship tickets cost in the secondary market.

The way I look at it is people vote with their money. And MA has the 3rd highest per capita income in the country ($43,501 in 2006) not-to-mention it borders other wealthy states like CT (1st on the list). WI, on the other hand, is 22nd at $34,701. So it's not like the rich folks of WI are artificially driving up the prices and the poor folks in the Northeast just can't keep up with the Joneses. The people in MA, CT and NH are the ones that can most easily afford to overspend to be at the game. But they're not. If you adjust for income levels, fans are paying 3 x's as much to be at Lambeau than Gillette.

Packers fans would give anything to see their team win a title. I can't say the same about the spoiled Pats fans. Considering how the Pats coaches/players overlook nobody, I find it ironic that their fans have come to take their team's success for granted.

Posted by edsfootball at 04:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

In my Divisional Round projections, I went out on a limb and predicted the Patriots would lose to the tough Jaguars to face the defending Super Bowl Champs in the AFC Championship.  In the NFC, I have a rematch of the season's top 2 seeds.  Here is how expect these games to play out:

(2) Colts vs (5) Jaguars: The Jaguars have arguably the best pair of RBs in the NFL in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.  David Garrard has played virtually mistake-free all season.  Reggie Wayne stepped up his game in Marvin Harrison's absence, but Harrison will be healthy for the game.  Dallas Clark is one of the best receiving TEs in the league and Joseph Addai is one of the best RBs.  After getting the monkey off his back last year, Peyton Manning has shown that he can win the big game.  The Jags are 0-2 vs the Colts on the season and I expect this game to be close.  However, the Jags will leave the RCA Dome winless vs the Colts this season and the Colts will have the opportunity to defend their championship.

(1) Cowboys vs (2) Packers: Will Brett Favre's season end in a 10th unsuccessful attempt to win at Texas Stadium?  Or will he get his first win there when it matters the most? Much has been made about the Cowboys struggles in December, but as Wade Phillips likes to point out - this is the Cowboys team that has tied its record for most wins in the storied history of its franchise.  The Cowboys have the highest scoring offense in the NFC and the Packers have the second best scoring offense and defense in the NFC.  The Packers will be healthier for the rematch, but I expect the outcome to be the same.  The Cowboys will get the chance to win their 6th Super Bowl and the speculation will soon begin about Favre's return in 2008.

Super Bowl XLII - Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys:

Another ring?  Who will get one?  The Defending Champs?  Or the franchise, along with San Francisco, that has won the most Super Bowls (5)?  I think the difference in this game will be Dallas Clark.  Cowboys safety Roy Williams struggles in coverage and the Colts use Clark well in their passing game.  With Addai running the ball and Harrison and Wayne on the outside, Williams won't have much help.  I expect Peyton and Colts to exploit this matchup.  The Indianapolis Colts will head into the 2008 season looking to Three-Peat. 

So, I have the Patriots not winning SuperBowl XLII.  Feel bad for them?  You shouldn't.  Bill Belichick and the Pats have the 7th-overall pick in the 2008 draft.  The rich will be getting richer.  Although I think the Pats are the best team heading into the playoffs, I expect them to meet the wrong team at the wrong time, but they will most likely be pre-season favorites to win Super Bowl XLIII.

Posted by edsfootball at 07:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Based on my predictions for the Wildcard round, I have have both #3 seeds beating the #6 seed and both #5 seeds beating the #4 seed.  Here are my predictions for the Divisional Round:

(1) Patriots vs (5) Jags: I believe the Pats are the best team in the NFL. Tom Brady and Randy Moss now own the single season records for passing and receiving TDs, respectively.  Wes Welker now holds the record for most receptions in a season as a Patriot.  On the season, they've outscored their opponents by 315 points.  There are 11 teams in the NFL that did not even score 315 for the season.  But the Pats have looked more vincible lately.  In their first 10 games, only 1 was won by less than 17 points.  In their last 6, only 3 were won by more than 3 points.  The Jags are a slug-it-out type of team that I think can give the Pats trouble.  They are second in the NFL in offensive rushing and Fred Taylor is on a 5-game streak of 100+ rushing yard performances.  Combine David Garrard's mistake-free play (18 TDs to 3 INTs) with their ability to pound the ball down their opponent's throat, I am going out on a limb and predicting the upset here.  Sports talk shows and bloggers alike will endlessly debate where their perfect regular season and winless post-season place them in NFL history.

(2) Colts vs (3) Chargers: The Chargers are on a roll winning their last 6 regular season games and their first playoff game according to my prediction.  This game will give fans one of the best match-ups of the post-season: Ladainian Tomlinson vs Bob Sanders (the NFL's leading rusher vs the NFL's best safety and likely Defensive Player of the Year).  The Colts have been flying under the radar although they are 13-3 and they rank second in 5 of the 8 categories used in our Domination Index.  If the Pats are the best team in football, the Colts are clearly 1a.  The Colts have held together well through all their injuries.  Now we'll see what they can do as a healthy team.  I like the Colts to advance.

(1) Cowboys vs (5) Giants: The Giants head into the post-season on an uptick after playing the Pats tough and losing by only 3 points.  The Cowboys, on the other hand, limp into the post-season literally as T.O. has a high ankle sprain, but he is expected to be ready by game time.  In their last 4 games, the Cowboys lost twice and barely beat 2 non-playoff teams.  But the Cowboys have the bye week to get healthier.  The big play has hurt the Giants this season and with T.O. and Terry Glenn back from injuries, I expect the Cowboys to get the big play.  The Cowboys will hold serve and advance to the NFC Championship Game.

(2) Packers vs (3) Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck had numbers (3966 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs) that are comparable to Brett Favre's (4155, 28, 15).  While Favre is mentioned as a possible MVP candidate, Hasselbeck has flown under the radar.  Marcus Trufant is one of the best CBs in the NFC and the Seattle WRs are good.  But Al Harris and Charles Woodson, the Packers' CBs, are perhaps the best pair of corners and the Packers receivers are as good as any group of receivers in the NFC.  Ryan Grant has emerged as one of the best RBs in the league while Shaun Alexander has been banged up and disappointing.  The Pack will move one step closer to the Super Bowl and Favre will get his 10th chance to get his first win at Texas Stadium.

Based on my projections, here are my Championship Game match-ups:

AFC: (2) Colts vs (5) Jaguars

NFC: (1) Cowboys vs (2) Packers 

Posted by edsfootball at 02:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Patriots head into the playoffs as the only team in NFL history to win all 16 games in the regular season.  But if you ask any Patriots fan whether 2007 was a successful season, every one will tell you it's too early to say.  16-0 in the regular season means nothing (o.k. next to nothing) if you're not 3-0 in the post-season.  Will the Pats go 3-0 when it matters?  Before I answer that question, let's take a look at this weekend's wildcard round...

Wildcard Round:

(3) Chargers vs (6) Titans: The Titans have one of the best right sides of a DL with Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch.  But Haynesworth is listed as probable (hamstring), Vince Young is a game-time decision and the Titans lack talent at WR (even more with Roydell Williams done for the year) make the Titans double-digit underdogs.  Jeff Fisher is a great coach that makes a lot with limited talent and I certainly have more confidence in his ability to call the game than I have in Norv Turner.  But the Chargers have too much talent on both sides of the ball, head into the post-season playing great football (6 straight wins) and L.T. has returned to form with 8 TDs in the past 5 games.  Chargers advance.

(4) Steelers vs (5) Jaguars: These two teams met 3 weeks ago in Pittsburgh and the Jags won by a TD.  Without Willie Parker, the Steelers head into this game as the only home underdog in the first round of playoffs.  Including their loss to the Jags, the Steelers head into the post-season with 1 win in their last 4 games.  The Jaguars are one of the most physical teams in the NFL and I expect the Jags to beat the Steelers again.

(3) Seahawks vs (6) Redskins: After the tragic way Sean Taylor's life ended, it's amazing that the Redskins were able to rally together and make the playoffs.  In fact, they've won all 4 of their games after attending his funeral.  Needing a win to get in last week against their biggest rival and the #1 seed, they won by 21 points (matching Taylor's number).  Although the 'Skins are a feel-good story, they will miss Taylor and Carlos Rogers (injured) more than ever as Matt Hasselbeck is having the best year of his career (nearly 4000 passing yards).  The Seahawks will advance to face Brett Favre and the Packers.

(4) Bucs vs (5) Giants:  Will Tom Coughlin be back as Giants' coach in 2008?  Will Eli Manning take the next step and show that he is a franchise QB?  These questions could be answered with a win on Sunday.  Getting to the playoffs and losing every game 3 years in a row will not make Giants fans happy.  The Giants are banged up after impressing me (and many others) in their performance against the Pats last week.  The Bucs are much healthier as they rested their starters the last 2 weeks.  That being said, I look for the Giants pass rush to make plays and Eli (admittedly, I'm a little worried about my newly-found confidence in Eli) to keep the mistakes to a minimum.  Tampa Bay's attempt to prevent New Yorkers from buying playoff tickets will only mean more of their own fans will leave Raymond James disappointed.

Divisional Round match-ups will be:

AFC: (1) Patriots vs (5) Jaguars and (2) Colts vs (3) Chargers

NFC: (1) Cowboys vs (5) Giants and (2) Packers vs (3) Seahawks 

Check back tomorrow for my Divisional Round, Championship Games and Super Bowl picks... 

Posted by edsfootball at 01:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Indianapolis Colts ended 2007 as the Most Dominant Team in the NFL according to our Domination Index.  Considering they play in the AFC South, where every team was at least .500 for the season, they had a much stronger strength of schedule than the New England Patriots, who play in the AFC East, where only the Pats had a winning (granted perfect) record.

The Philadelphia Eagles, who play in the NFC East (the other division where no team had a losing record in 2007), were first in strength of schedule and the Washington Redskins were second.  In fact, 8 of the Top 10 teams in the strength of schedule category are the 8 teams from the AFC South and NFC East.

If we exclude the strength of schedule component from our Index, the Pats are clearly the most dominant team.  The Patriots were first in 5 of the 8 categories.  That being said, the Colts were second in 5 of the 8 categories.  Here are the Top 10 teams in our Index (strength of schedule excluded):

1. New England Patriots

2. Indianapolis Colts

3. Dallas Cowboys

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

6. Jacksonville Jaguars

7. Seattle Seahawks

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9. San Diego Chargers

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Check back tomorrow for our full post-season projections...

Posted by edsfootball at 03:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)