As you already know, fantasy football leagues are not necessarily won by the genius who
decides to select Adrian Peterson with the number one pick. Whether you have the third pick, the eighth pick or the tenth pick, everyone is getting top talent in the first round.
And if we take a quick look back to 2008, players such as Matt Forte, Deangelo Williams and Chris Johnson were drafted in the 10th round or later yet they put up first-round numbers.
While that may be the extreme, the key to winning your league is selecting players who are good values in relation to where they are drafted and to do so consistently throughout your draft.
So, here are some running backs to target from round 3 through the later rounds:
Kevin Smith, Lions – Last year was the year of the rookie RB. Three of them rushed for 1,000+ yards. One of the guys who flew under the radar and just fell shy of 1,000 yards was Kevin Smith of Detroit.
While Smith has a case of JonKitna-itis,
predicting a Detroit Lions’ playoff berth in ’09, he just needs to do what he has done since November last year.
When given the chance in the second half, Smith produced and produced big. He rushed for 671 yards in the final 8 games. That is a 1,342-yard pace in an offense that had Dan “Safety Dance” Orlovsky running it.
Only 4 RBs had more than 1,342 yards in 2008.
With MegaTron -- that’s Calvin Johnson for those of you not well-versed in freakishly, athletic receiver nicknames -- entering his third season, a quarterback who's last name doesn't rhyme with jerkoff-ski and the addition of Brandon Pettigrew, the most-talented and best-blocking TE in the draft, I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith continued his second-half pace into 2009, in which case Smith becomes the bargain of the third round of your draft.
Ryan Grant, Packers – Although he wasn’t 100% to start the season and didn’t crack 20 carries in the first five weeks of the year, Ryan Grant was one of only five backs to carry the ball 300+ times in 2008.
Despite some labeling him a “bust,” Grant finished strong and still rushed for 1203 yards. All four of the times he eclipsed the century mark came in the final ten games of the season.
With Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver in the passing game, opposing defenses need to be honest when trying to stop Grant and the Packers running attack.
Provided Grant stays healthy for the entire season, he should top his 2008 production of 1200+ yards.
Ray Rice, Ravens – If you read my blog post in early June -- ‘
Four (Ravens’) Breakout Players for 2009’ -- over at FootBaltimore.com, putting Ray Rice on this list doesn’t surprise you.
In 2009, I expect the Ravens’ ground game to be the same as -- but different than -- it was in 2008. So, what does that mean?
Last year, the Ravens led the NFL in rushing attempts at 37 per game. I don’t expect that to change much.
What will be different in 2009 is how the carries are allocated. Rice, who has been running (no pun intended) with the first team, should receive the most carries this year. Le’Ron McClain, last year’s leader with 232 carries, has moved to FB full-time to take over for the departed Lorenzo Neal.
While Willis McGahee had a strong camp, Rice has added both muscle and confidence in the off-season. And Coach John Harbaugh has been singing his praises saying that he has no doubt that Rice can be an “every-down back.”
Donald Brown, Colts – Brown, who was the nation’s leading rusher in college football and joins one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Brown carried the rock 28 times per game on average at UConn and rushed for 200+ yards three times and 150+ yards eight times.
With Joseph Addai already in Indy, Brown will be part of a platoon to start the season.
Worst-case scenario, Brown should get 10-12 carries per game and finish with around 700-800 yards.
Best-case scenario, (except from Addai’s perspective), it’s déjà vu all over again for Addai leading to huge upside for Brown.
Cedric Benson, Bengals – While I wouldn’t go for a boat ride with Bengals running back Cedric Benson, I’d certainly draft him after 30 or so running backs are off the board, which is what his Yahoo! ADP and ESPN rank would project.
Benson (and the Bengals for that matter) finished 2008 strong despite being the 32nd-ranked offense in the league last year. In the final three weeks of the season, Benson showed why the
Bears drafted him fourth overall in 2005.
In those three games (all wins), Benson carried the ball 84 times for 355 yards and caught 5 passes for 107 yards. With Carson Palmer healthy (arm/shoulder, at least), Chad Ochocinco refocused and top rookie Andre Smith re-joining the offensive line (after his broken foot heals), there is no reason to believe that the Bengals will finish ranked last in offense again this year. And Benson should only benefit from those healthier, refocused and new components to the offense.
Some other RBs I like late in the draft: Felix Jones (Cowboys), Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) and James Davis (Browns).
