2009 AFC North Prediction
Before Thursday's season opener, we will project the final standings and team records for all eight divisions as well as our post-season picks. Let's continue with the AFC North.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Prediction: 11-5 (Steelers Schedule | Steelers Forum)
The defending Super Bowl champions had the league's top-rated scoring defense (13.9 points per game) and total defense (237.2 yards per game) in 2008. And the defense will be one of the best again in 2009. On offense, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is one of the toughest and most clutch QBs in the NFL. Yet the Steelers' poor offensive line play and Big Ben's propensity to try to keep the play alive made him the second-most sacked quarterback in the league last year for the second season in a row. He was the fourth-most sacked QB in 2006. While I consider the Ravens to be the Steelers' equals, the Steelers have a more favorable schedule in 2009 in an ironic twist of the NFL's scheduling policy to create parity. All AFC North teams play six games against division rivals and eight games against AFC West and NFC North teams this year. The other two games are based on division finish last year. The division winners the Steelers face are Miami and Tennessee. The Ravens, on the other hand, face the Patriots and Colts, who both finished second last year. I'd rather face the Dolphins and Titans over the Patriots and Colts.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .434 winning percentage in 2008 (29th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): vs Tennessee, vs San Diego, vs Minnesota, at Baltimore, vs Baltimore, at Miami
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 30 (10.0 per season)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Prediction: 11-5 (Steelers Schedule | Steelers Forum)
The defending Super Bowl champions had the league's top-rated scoring defense (13.9 points per game) and total defense (237.2 yards per game) in 2008. And the defense will be one of the best again in 2009. On offense, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is one of the toughest and most clutch QBs in the NFL. Yet the Steelers' poor offensive line play and Big Ben's propensity to try to keep the play alive made him the second-most sacked quarterback in the league last year for the second season in a row. He was the fourth-most sacked QB in 2006. While I consider the Ravens to be the Steelers' equals, the Steelers have a more favorable schedule in 2009 in an ironic twist of the NFL's scheduling policy to create parity. All AFC North teams play six games against division rivals and eight games against AFC West and NFC North teams this year. The other two games are based on division finish last year. The division winners the Steelers face are Miami and Tennessee. The Ravens, on the other hand, face the Patriots and Colts, who both finished second last year. I'd rather face the Dolphins and Titans over the Patriots and Colts.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .434 winning percentage in 2008 (29th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): vs Tennessee, vs San Diego, vs Minnesota, at Baltimore, vs Baltimore, at Miami
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 30 (10.0 per season)
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Prediction:10-6 (Ravens Schedule | Ravens Forum)
Coach John Harbaugh, QB Joe Flacco and (now first-team) RB Ray Rice are entering their sophomore seasons with the Ravens. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing attempts with 37 carries per game in 2008 and that shouldn't change in 2009. However, the allocation of carries will definitely change. Rice -- not Le'Ron McClain -- will lead this team in attempts. But the team lacks a big-time playmaker in the receiving corps to make Flacco an elite quarterback in 2009. That being said, Flacco has looked comfortable in the offense and sharp during the pre-season and he has the big arm, poise and moxy to take the next step forward in his development. As noted above, the Ravens face the Patriots and Colts, who both finished second last year, while the Steelers face the Dolphins and Titans, who both won their divisions. As close as these two teams are in talent and philosophy, that scheduling difference (less favorable for the Ravens) will be the deciding factor in who wins (and doesn't win) the division in 2009.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .438 winning percentage in 2008 (28th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): at San Diego, at Minnesota, vs Indianapolis, vs Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 29 (9.7 per season)
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Prediction: 7-9 (Bengals Schedule | Bengals Forum)
The Bengals finished 2008 strong with wins in their final three games of the regular season against (even) weak(er) competition. That being said, wins don't come cheaply in the NFL. In addition to that positive momentum, the Bengals have a healthy (minus ankle) Carson Palmer back at quarterback and a refocused Chad Ochocinco. They get Keith Rivers, their first-round pick in 2008, back from a broken jaw and they drafted Rey Maualuga, who many projected as mid-first-round pick, in the second round this year to lead their receiving corps. The defense, which ranked 12th in the league last year, could be better this year and the offense, which ranked last in the league, will certainly be better provided their skill players stay healthy. The problem is they play in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .465 winning percentage in 2008 (22nd)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, vs Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, at San Diego
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 19 (6.3 per season)
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Prediction: 4-12 (Browns Schedule | Browns Forum)
Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson? Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn? While coach Eric Mangini says he knows who will be the team's starting QB, he won't tip his hand and share the information with the public. However, what we do know is that the Browns suck. Their offense hasn't scored a touchdown since November 17th. And their offense has lost Kellen Winslow, who was traded to Tampa Bay, and Jamal Lewis is on the decline. Braylon Edwards broke out in 2007 and then broke down in 2008 while leading the league in drops. James Davis is a nice sleeper pick in fantasy football and Joshua Cribbs is an underrated do-it-all, but he is frustrated by his lack of a new contract. Any way you slice it, it's going to be a disappointing season (again) in Cleveland.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .449 winning percentage in 2008 (25th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs Minnesota, at Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, vs Baltimore, vs San Diego, vs Pittsburgh
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 18 (6.0 per season)
We will take a look at the AFC South next.
Prediction:10-6 (Ravens Schedule | Ravens Forum)
Coach John Harbaugh, QB Joe Flacco and (now first-team) RB Ray Rice are entering their sophomore seasons with the Ravens. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing attempts with 37 carries per game in 2008 and that shouldn't change in 2009. However, the allocation of carries will definitely change. Rice -- not Le'Ron McClain -- will lead this team in attempts. But the team lacks a big-time playmaker in the receiving corps to make Flacco an elite quarterback in 2009. That being said, Flacco has looked comfortable in the offense and sharp during the pre-season and he has the big arm, poise and moxy to take the next step forward in his development. As noted above, the Ravens face the Patriots and Colts, who both finished second last year, while the Steelers face the Dolphins and Titans, who both won their divisions. As close as these two teams are in talent and philosophy, that scheduling difference (less favorable for the Ravens) will be the deciding factor in who wins (and doesn't win) the division in 2009.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .438 winning percentage in 2008 (28th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): at San Diego, at Minnesota, vs Indianapolis, vs Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 29 (9.7 per season)
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Prediction: 7-9 (Bengals Schedule | Bengals Forum)
The Bengals finished 2008 strong with wins in their final three games of the regular season against (even) weak(er) competition. That being said, wins don't come cheaply in the NFL. In addition to that positive momentum, the Bengals have a healthy (minus ankle) Carson Palmer back at quarterback and a refocused Chad Ochocinco. They get Keith Rivers, their first-round pick in 2008, back from a broken jaw and they drafted Rey Maualuga, who many projected as mid-first-round pick, in the second round this year to lead their receiving corps. The defense, which ranked 12th in the league last year, could be better this year and the offense, which ranked last in the league, will certainly be better provided their skill players stay healthy. The problem is they play in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .465 winning percentage in 2008 (22nd)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, vs Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, at San Diego
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 19 (6.3 per season)
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Prediction: 4-12 (Browns Schedule | Browns Forum)
Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson? Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn? While coach Eric Mangini says he knows who will be the team's starting QB, he won't tip his hand and share the information with the public. However, what we do know is that the Browns suck. Their offense hasn't scored a touchdown since November 17th. And their offense has lost Kellen Winslow, who was traded to Tampa Bay, and Jamal Lewis is on the decline. Braylon Edwards broke out in 2007 and then broke down in 2008 while leading the league in drops. James Davis is a nice sleeper pick in fantasy football and Joshua Cribbs is an underrated do-it-all, but he is frustrated by his lack of a new contract. Any way you slice it, it's going to be a disappointing season (again) in Cleveland.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .449 winning percentage in 2008 (25th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs Minnesota, at Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, vs Baltimore, vs San Diego, vs Pittsburgh
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 18 (6.0 per season)
We will take a look at the AFC South next.
