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Every week I pick three games against the spread (ATS). Here are my three picks for week 8:


Texans -3.5 (over Bills): In the first three games of the season, teams ran all over the Houston Texans. In their past four games, however, the Texans have allowed only 45, 44, 46 and 59 yards rushing. In fact, they are the only team to hold Cedric Benson, the NFL rushing leader, to under 50 yards rushing. It won't be much easier to the Bills to move the ball through the air as only four teams rank lowerin offensive passing yards and only four teams have allowed more sacks. Meanwhile, the Texans have scored 20+ points in every game except week one and it appears as though stud receiver Andre Johnson (lung contusion) will play Sunday. Although Steve Slaton is suffering a sophomore slump (48.7 rushing yards per game), the Bills are allowing a league-worst 172.4 rushing ypg.

Ravens -3 (over Broncos): Both teams began the season by winning their first three games. Since then, the Broncos have won three more games to improve to 6-0. On the other hand, the Ravens have lost three games to fall to 3-3. But those three losses were decided within the last couple of minutes (or seconds) of the game and were to three division leaders (Patriots, Bengals and Vikings). In other words, the Ravens are a better team than their record indicates. And they are too good to lose four consecutive games, aren't they? At home, the Ravens are 38-13 straight up since 2003. The Ravens are 11-8 against the spread (ATS) at home in the past three years while the Broncos are 8-11 ATS on the road during that span.

Titans -3 (over Jaguars): I'll admit it. It scares me to pick a winless favorite coming off a 59-0 shutout that will now be led by Vince Young. It really scares me. And as he "just wanted to feel like a winner," coach Jeff Fisher wore a Peyton Manning jersey at a charity event during the bye week. Joking or not, it was also intended to send a message to his team. The Titans have been embarrassed and have had two weeks to soak in the embarrassment. Despite losing Albert Haynesworth (via free agency) and having an injury-depleted secondary, this was last year's top seed in the AFC. And now their pride and manhood have been challenged. They have to respond at home against a division rival, right?