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September 13, 2009

Super Bowl XLIV Prediction

Here is a recap of my division predictions:

AFC East: Patriots (12-4), Bills (8-8), Dolphins (7-9), Jets (6-10)
AFC North: Steelers (11-5), Ravens (10-6), Bengals (7-9), Browns (4-12)
AFC South: Colts (10-6), Titans (10-6), Texans (9-7), Jaguars (6-10)
AFC West: Chargers (11-5), Raiders (6-10), Broncos (5-11), Chiefs (4-12)

NFC East: Eagles (10-6), Giants (10-6), Cowboys (9-7), Redskins (7-9)
NFC North: Packers (10-6), Vikings (10-6), Bears (8-8), Lions (4-12)
NFC South: Saints (10-6), Panthers (9-7), Falcons (8-8), Bucs (5-11)
NFC West: Seahawks (8-8), Cardinals (7-9), 49ers (7-9), Rams (4-12)

Here are my predictions for the post-season:

AFC Playoffs:
Wildcard Round: Chargers over Titans, Ravens over Colts
Divisional Round: Steelers over Chargers, Patriots over Ravens
Championship Game: Patriots over Steelers

NFC Playoffs:
Wildcard Round: Giants over Saints, Vikings over Seahawks
Divisional Round: Eagles over Giants, Packers over Vikings
Championship Game: Eagles over Packers

Super Bowl XLIV: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

2009 NFC West Prediction

Here are my picks for the NFC West in 2009:


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Prediction: 8-8 (Seahawks Schedule | Seahawks Forum)

The Seahawks have Matt Hasselbeck back and healthy, they added a T.J. Houshmandzadeh as their No. 1 receiver and they have recently signed Edgerrin James to join Julius Jones in their backfield. While their running game is still suspect (at best), the Seahawks should be able to move the ball in the air. Injuries are a concern. Left tackle Walter Jones will miss (at least) the season opener and cornerback Marcus Trufant will begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list and therefore miss the first six games. The Seahawks allowed a league-worst 259.3 passing yards per game last year. But the Seahawks have the most talented group of linebackers -- rookie Aaron Curry, Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill -- in the division.

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .457 winning percentage in 2008 (24th)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): at Indianapolis, vs Arizona, at Arizona, at Minnesota, vs Tennessee

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 23 (7.7 per season)

Continue reading "2009 NFC West Prediction" »

2009 NFC South Prediction

Here are my picks for the NFC South in 2009:


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Prediction: 10-6 (Saints Schedule | Saints Forum)

The Saints have the league's most explosive offense. Last year, Drew Brees barely missed breaking Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record and became the second quarterback to pass for over 5,000 yards in league history. Brees posted those numbers with his best receiver missing six games of the season, but Marques Colston finished the season strong (31 receptions for 438 yards and four TDs in final five games). They will miss Pierre Thomas in week one, but their week one opponent is Detroit at home. A bigger concern will be Jamaal Brown missing the first six games after having hip surgery. And, of course, Reggie Bush, who has missed 10 games in the past two seasons, is always an injury concern. Last year, their defense ranked 23rd in total defense (339.5 yards per game) and were tied for 26th in scoring defense (24.6 points per game) with Houston. Their defense should improve as they drafted Malcolm Jenkins with their first overall pick, signed safety Darren Sharper in the off-season and named Gregg Williams as their new defensive coordinator.

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .570 winning percentage in 2008 (6th)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (7): at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, at Miami, vs Atlanta, vs Carolina, at Atlanta, at Carolina

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 25 (8.3 per season)

Continue reading "2009 NFC South Prediction" »

2009 NFC North Prediction

Here are my predictions for the NFC North in 2009:


GREEN BAY PACKERS
Prediction: 10-6 (Packers Schedule | Packers Forum)

While the Vikings have the best rushing game and run defense in the NFC North, I think the Packers are the most balanced team in the division. They also have the division's best quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who played remarkably well in what was the equivalent to his rookie season. The Packers also have talented weapons on offense -- RB Ryan Grant, WR Greg Jennings and WR Donald Driver. Grant wasn't 100 percent to start last season, but he finished strong rushing for over 1,200 yards. He's healthy heading into 2009. The defense should be aggressive under Dom Capers, but they may struggle a bit early in the year as they transition to a 3-4 scheme.

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .428 winning percentage in 2008 (30th)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): at Minnesota, vs Minnesota, vs Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at Arizona

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 27 (9.0 per season)

Continue reading "2009 NFC North Prediction" »

2009 NFC East Prediction

Here are my predictions for the NFC East in 2009:


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Prediction: 10-6 (Eagles Schedule | Eagles Forum)

The NFC East is the strongest division from top to bottom. Although the signing of Michael Vick may have dominated the headlines, the team made other off-season moves. They traded for left tackle Jason Peters and signed him to a long-term contract. They also drafted LeSean McCoy as Brian Westbrook's future replacement and receiver Jeremy Maclin, who will give Donovan McNabb another playmaker. However, the team still lacks a true No. 1 receiver, but minus the T.O. days, the Eagles may have their best receiving corps in the McNabb era. Then again, that isn't saying much. In such a physical and talented division, the question will be how their defense reacts to the losses of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson (who passed away), LB Stewart Bradley (season-ending injury) and safety Brian Dawkins (who was released).

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .535 winning percentage in 2008 (9th)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): at Carolina, vs NY Giants, at San Diego, at Atlanta, at NY Giants

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 27 (9.0 per season)

Continue reading "2009 NFC East Prediction" »

2009 AFC West Prediction

Here are my predictions for the AFC West:


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Prediction: 11-5 (Chargers Schedule | Chargers Forum)

There isn't a division in football that is more lopsided than this division. I'm certainly not going out on a limb when I say that the Chargers are going to easily run away with the AFC West this year. Last year, nagging injuries slowed LaDainian Tomlinson, who still rushed for over 1,100 yards in a down season. This pre-season, LT played as much as he had in all of his previous pre-seasons combined. That should help get him into a groove sooner than he normally does and I expect a motivated Tomlinson, who restructured his contract to avoid getting cut, to have a bounce-back year. On the defensive side of the ball, they get back LB Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman, who missed the entire 2008 season. The Chargers could have the division clinched by week 12.

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .484 winning percentage in 2008 (T17th)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs Baltimore, vs Miami, at Pittsburgh, at NY Giants, vs Philadelphia, at Tennessee

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 34 (11.3 per season)

Continue reading "2009 AFC West Prediction" »

September 09, 2009

2009 AFC South Prediction

Before tomorrow night's season opener between the Steelers and Titans, we will project the final standings and team records for all eight divisions as well as our post-season picks. Let's continue with the AFC South.


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Prediction: 10-6 (Colts Schedule | Colts Forum)

The Colts enter the post-Tony Dungy era with a six-season streak of 12+ wins. However, new coach Jim Caldwell has been Peyton Manning's quarterbacks coach under Dungy since 2002. The Colts also lost the team's all-time receiver Marvin Harrison, who was released after not agreeing to a restructured contract. But they drafted RB Donald Brown (first round) and WR Austin Collie (fourth round) in this year's draft. With durability concerns for Joseph Addai, the incumbent starter at RB, the addition of Brown will either keep Addai fresh by reducing his workload or provide the Colts with protection should he miss a lot of time. Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark form one of the league's top WR-WR-TE trios. Two big concerns for the upcoming season are the offensive line's ability to protect Manning and the health of safety Bob Sanders, who has played more than six games in only two of his five seasons. Sanders' status for week one is still unclear.

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .512 winning percentage in 2008 (13th)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): at Miami, at Arizona, at Tennessee, at Baltimore, vs Tennessee

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 37 (12.3 per season)

Continue reading "2009 AFC South Prediction" »

2009 AFC North Prediction

Before Thursday's season opener, we will project the final standings and team records for all eight divisions as well as our post-season picks. Let's continue with the AFC North.


PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Prediction: 11-5 (Steelers Schedule | Steelers Forum)

The defending Super Bowl champions had the league's top-rated scoring defense (13.9 points per game) and total defense (237.2 yards per game) in 2008. And the defense will be one of the best again in 2009. On offense, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is one of the toughest and most clutch QBs in the NFL. Yet the Steelers' poor offensive line play and Big Ben's propensity to try to keep the play alive made him the second-most sacked quarterback in the league last year for the second season in a row. He was the fourth-most sacked QB in 2006. While I consider the Ravens to be the Steelers' equals, the Steelers have a more favorable schedule in 2009 in an ironic twist of the NFL's scheduling policy to create parity. All AFC North teams play six games against division rivals and eight games against AFC West and NFC North teams this year. The other two games are based on division finish last year. The division winners the Steelers face are Miami and Tennessee. The Ravens, on the other hand, face the Patriots and Colts, who both finished second last year. I'd rather face the Dolphins and Titans over the Patriots and Colts.

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .434 winning percentage in 2008 (29th)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (5): vs Tennessee, vs San Diego, vs Minnesota, at Baltimore, vs Baltimore, at Miami

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 30 (10.0 per season)

Continue reading "2009 AFC North Prediction" »

September 08, 2009

2009 AFC East Prediction

Over the next two days, we will project the final standings and team records for all eight divisions as well as our post-season picks. We'll begin with the AFC East.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Prediction: 12-4 (Patriots Schedule | Patriots Forum)

The Patriots missed the playoffs last year as many predicted after the Pats had lost Tom Brady to a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the first game of the season. Yet the Patriots barely missed the post-season with an 11-5 record (the same record as the division-winning Miami Dolphins) even if that is five fewer wins than they had with Brady at the helm in 2007. Although they had a scare in the third pre-season game when Washington's Albert Haynesworth landed on his shoulder, Brady looked like his 2007 self when he hit Randy Moss on two touchdown passes in the first half. In 2008, the Patriots finished fourth in the NFL in rushing TDs (21) and sixth in rushing yards (2278). They finished ranked eighth in the NFL in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and tenth in total defense (309.0) last year. Although they've traded Richard Seymour to Oakland over Labor Day weekend, it's hard to imagine that the balanced, well-coached Patriots team will win fewer games than they did in 2008 now that they have a healthy Tom Brady.

Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .590 winning percentage in 2008 (3rd)

2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (7): vs Atlanta, vs Baltimore, vs Tennessee, vs Miami, at Indianapolis, at Miami, vs Carolina

# of Wins Past 3 Years: 39 (13.0 per season)

Continue reading "2009 AFC East Prediction" »




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