Between the two of them, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw for a total of 10,168 yards in the regular season.
On Sunday, the two quarterbacks will meet in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII.
Although that was the season that Brady set the single-season record for most passing touchdowns (50), the two teams combined for only 31 points in Super Bowl XLII and it was only 7-3 heading into the fourth quarter. Both Brady and Manning threw for 266 yards or less.
Fast forward a few years, will the offensive output be similar to what we (most) expect?
Based on the prop bets at Sportsbook.com, the over-under for Brady and Manning are 320.5 and 310.5 passing yards, respectively.
More than in any other sport, getting things right in the NFL Draft is critical to a team's ability to create and maintain long-term success.
In most cases, it is not necessarily the player(s) selected in the first round each year that leads to that success. It is the ability to find players in the later rounds of the draft or even the undrafted free agents that can contribute.
As we get closer to the draft, we will include mock drafts that go beyond the first round.
We've seen the results without a healthy Peyton Manning, a four-time league MVP. The trio of Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky led the Colts to two wins and subsequently the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft. And we've seen the results with a healthy Manning: double-digit wins in 11 of 12 seasons. It is looking less and less likely that Manning, who will turn 36 this year, will be on the Colts' roster to receive a $28 million bonus he's due on March 8th. Fortunately for Indianapolis, who may or may not have decided to move on weeks ago, Luck is one of the best quarterback prospects to come along in a long time.
It is possible (even likely) that one of the quarterback-needy teams will trade up to the No. 2 spot to take Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. While the Rams trading down is a very real possibility, I'm going to keep them here, for now.
Much of this month, I felt like the pick would be receiver Justin Blackmon, especially with Brandon Lloyd expected to leave via free agency (and perhaps to follow Josh McDaniels to New England). Instead, I have the Rams going with Kalil, an athletic offensive tackle from USC and the brother of Panthers Pro Bowl center Ryan Kalil. No team allowed more sacks than the Rams (55) last year. Although St. Louis had injuries along their line, Jason Smith has been a bust so far and the team may even cut him if he doesn't agree to a pay cut.
[Related: Take our poll on which player will be selected second overall.]
If the Rams trade down (and RG3 goes second overall), I would expect the Vikings to take Kalil. Only four teams allowed more sacks than Minnesota. However, their pass defense was atrocious last year and they have to face the Packers and Lions four times a year. No team allowed more passing touchdowns (34) than the Vikings and no team intercepted fewer passes (eight). Especially after Dre Kirkpatrick's brush-in with the law earlier this month, Claiborne is clearly the top corner in this year's draft class.
If the Browns don't trade up to take RG3 and he's still available here (I'm beginning to sound like a broken record), the Browns won't pass up the opportunity to take this year's Heisman Trophy recipient (see past winners). Accurate, athletic and intelligent, Griffin completed 72.4 percent of his passes and was just shy of 5,000 combined yards -- 4,293 passing yards and 699 rushing yards -- in 2011. For his career, Griffin has a 78:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio not counting his 33 rushing touchdowns.
The Bucs would probably prefer to take Claiborne at this spot with Ronde Barber nearing (or maybe coming to) the end of his career and the off-the-field issues of Aqib Talib. That said, I don't think the Bucs take Kirkpatrick, who created some questions about his character as noted above. Richardson has an impressive combination of size, strength and speed and is one of the best running back prospects in years.
There is plenty of speculation that the Redskins will try to trade up to select RG3. If they don't, they will boost their passing game with the draft's most-talented pass-catcher. Blackmon, who is the back-to-back Biletnikoff recipient, has 232 receptions for 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns combined over the past two seasons.
If Blackmon is still available at No. 7, they won't hesitate to get their "franchise" quarterback a legitimate weapon in the passing game. (Granted, Blaine Gabbert looked horrible -- and scared -- last season, but the Jags arguably have the league's worst receiving corps). While many question Coples' motor, he is the premiere pass-rusher in the draft and the Jags have ranked in the bottom 10 in sacks for the past three years in a row.
Although the Dolphins have an elite left tackle in Jake Long, the top overall pick in 2008, they could certainly use an upgrade on the right side to replace Marc Colombo. Along with Kalil and Jonathan Martin, Reiff is one of the three best offensive tackles in this year's draft class.
Regardless of how free agency shakes out, the top two teams in the NFC South (New Orleans and Atlanta) have elite passing attacks. As noted earlier, Kirkpatrick will have some 'splaining to do (as Ricky Ricardo would say) about his off-field issues. But the Panthers get a cornerback with elite size (approximately 6-3) to pair up with Chris Gamble.
10. Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Courtney Upshaw, DE/LB, Alabama
Only the Titans (28) and Bucs (23) had fewer sacks last year than the Bills (29). Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, Upshaw's teammate at Alabama and the Bills' first-round pick last year, led the team in sacks last year with only 5.5. Upshaw will help.
If you're in a fantasy league for the playoffs, hopefully you picked plenty of Patriots and/or Giants players as many playoff leagues limit postseason transactions.
Some leagues, such as ESPN's Gridiron Challenge, does not allow for roster changes after the Championship games.
In any event, here are our rankings for Super Bowl XLVI:
Quarterbacks:
1. Tom Brady, Patriots: Brady had a poor performance last week, but the Giants are not the Ravens. Provided New England limits the G-Men's pass rush, New York's defensive strength, Brady should bounce back with a big performance against a shaky Giants secondary.
1a. Eli Manning, Giants: For me, there is only a marginal difference between these two QBs. If your league uses a salary cap to select players, I would prefer the cheaper option (likely Manning). After throwing for more than 300 yards vs. the Niners and posting an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the past four games, Manning is definitely playing at an "elite" level.
Running Backs:
1. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: Of the remaining running backs, Bradshaw has the most potential to have a big game. The Patriots pass defense leaves much to be desired, but they have allowed only two 100-yard rushers this season: Roy Helu (126 yards) and Reggie Bush (113 yards).
2. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots: The Law Firm won't get you a ton of yardage in most weeks. That said, he's going to get the goal-line work (when Brady is not keeping it himself). With his ability to protect the football, I wouldn't be surprised if Green-Ellis gets a similar workload as last week (15 carries).
3. Brandon Jacobs, Giants: His postseason workload (and production) is heading in the wrong direction: 14 carries for 92 yards, nine carries for 22 yards (and a TD) and five carries for 13 yards. Meanwhile, Bradshaw had a postseason-high 20 carries last week.
4. Danny Woodhead, Patriots: If Woodhead has a bigger game than expected, it would likely mean that he has a bunch of receptions out of the backfield. That said, he has one reception for seven yards in the postseason.
Wide Receivers:
1. Hakeem Nicks, Giants: In their regular-season matchup against the Patriots, Nicks was inactive. While he only had five receptions for 55 yards last week, Nicks has 18 receptions for 335 yards and four touchdowns this postseason.
2. Wes Welker, Patriots: Welker has three straight games with six receptions and 51-55 yards. Welker had one of his best performances (nine receptions for 136 yards) of the season in his first matchup against the Giants.
3. Victor Cruz, Giants: Cruz had his best game of the playoffs last week with 10 receptions for 142 yards although he has yet to score a touchdown this postseason. Cruz had six receptions for 91 yards in his regular-season matchup against the Patriots.
4. Mario Manningham, Giants: Manningham has scored a touchdown in all three of the Giants playoff games this year. In his first matchup against the Patriots, he had three receptions for 33 yards and a score.
5. Deion Branch, Patriots: Branch has been hit or miss in his two postseason games and in the regular season. In his 17 games (counting playoffs) this season, Branch has nine or more fantasy points in eight games. He has seven games with three fantasy points or less.
Tight Ends:
1. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots: In his past six games, Hernandez is averaging more than 100 yards from scrimmage per game. He has 36 receptions for 508 yards and three touchdowns plus 12 carries for 113 yards during that span.
2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots: If it weren't for his high-ankle sprain, Gronkowski would be ranked No. 1 here. Although he is expected to play, I wonder how much the injury will slow him down and Hernandez is one of top five fantasy tight ends in the league.
3. Jake Ballard, Giants: In the regular season, Ballard had one of his best games of the season against the Patriots. He finished the game with four receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown.
4. Travis Beckum, Giants: Beckum has more receptions in the playoffs (seven) than he had in the regular season (five). That said, he has only 45 yards and no touchdowns.
Our initial 2012 fantasy football rankings will be available by Monday, January 30th. Of course, they will be subject to frequent change up to the start of the 2012 season, but our plan will be to update them again about a week or so after the start of NFL free agency (March 13th), after the NFL Draft (late April) and frequently starting in July.
Smith, the team's first-round pick, led all rookies in the regular season with 14 sacks and only four players had more during the regular season. He also had a sack in each of his postseason games.
In addition, only Jevon Kearse had more sacks (14.5) as a rookie (1999) in league history.
Going into the 2012 season, Lions receiver Calvin Johnson is the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in football. He closed the season with four straight 100-yard games (although three of them were 200-yard games).
The debate comes into play when we are looking at who should be ranked second at the position.
Based on 2011 production, three of the top six receivers are not a huge surprise: Johnson, Wes Welker and Larry Fitzgerald. However, the other three were much less likely to finish in the top six based on preseason expectations and rankings.
Green Bay's Jordy Nelson finished second, New York's Victor Cruz finished fourth and Carolina's Steve Smith finished sixth.
Here is this week's roundtable topic: Using standard scoring (i.e., not PPR), who should be 2nd WR selected in 2012 fantasy football drafts?
It is nearly impossible to predict injuries and many of our fantasy teams get wrecked from the injuries we suffer throughout any given season. A pair of hamstring injuries ruined Andre Johnson's fantasy production last year. Before his (first) hamstring injury, Johnson had 21 receptions for 316 yards and two touchdowns in the first three games of the season. The fact that he had 13 receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown in two playoff games reminds us that he is as talented as any other receiver not named Calvin. From 2007 to 2010, Johnson averaged more than 90 receiving yards per game every year. Provided he (and quarterback Matt Schaub) stays healthy next year, Johnson should put up 1,300-1,500 yards in 2012.
After Calvin Johnson, the top receiver I would take in 2012 would be Andre Johnson. Prior to Calvin's breakout season, Andre Johnson was generally regarded as the best receiver in football (with a short list of other possibilities like Larry Fitz or Roddy White.) The Texans offense has been heading in the right direction the last few years, with Arian Foster emerging as probably the best back in the league, which obviously helps open up the passing game. Schaub to Johnson was becoming a pretty lethal combo, but injuries to both players this year clearly hurt their production. Still, if both players can manage to stay healthy all year, Johnson is a big, strong receiver with great hands and he has a top-tier quarterback throwing to him. The Texans can score a lot of points, so I expect a big year out of Schaub, with Johnson being the main beneficiary. Because of this, I'd slot Andre Johnson as the number two most valuable fantasy receiver to start 2012.
This year it is going to be so hard to pick the No. 2 WR, I think you are almost better off going in another direction. I'd honestly consider drafting both Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham before the next WR (after Megatron).
The No. 2 WR will probably be taken around the 10th-12th pick in most drafts, so for arguments sake let's say you have the 10th pick. You only have to wait four more picks until you pick again. Is there a real difference between Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz? Not really. If you pass on a WR in both rounds, who do you think will be available in Rounds 3/4 to round out your team? The WRs you are looking at in 3rd/4th will be guys like Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, AJ Green, etc.
I think this is the year to pass on WRs early and draft them later on. My strategy for this pick would be to draft one of the three elite QBs. Hope that one of the TE's falls to be in the 2nd. Then go WR/RB or WR/WR in rounds 3&4, and then just load up on RB's the rest of the draft. There is going to be plenty of players like Marshawn Lynch and Darren Sproles that come out of no where next season. If you are putting up 50 points a week with your QB/TE combo, and your second tier of WRs are the guys listed in the paragraph above, then you are going to be hard to beat. Could you see Vincent Jackson being the #2 WR next year? How about Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt or AJ Green? They all have the talent to take it to the next level.
My answer is simple. I am not drafting one. I am going elsewhere with my pick. If I had to bet money on who I thought would go No. 2 in most drafts though, I'd put my money on Andre Johnson. Johnson out of all the other WRs has the tools, and is in a great situation where he is going to get the majority of the balls thrown to him.
If I am picking the number 2 wide receiver, I am still going with Andre Johnson of the Texans. Although he was limited to seven games, Johnson had 33 catches for an average of 14.9 yard per reception and two TDs. Johnson has been one of the league's most consistent talents, and will have a bounce-back year.
If you've followed my writing here, you'll have noticed that I'm a big fan of consistency and repeatability. Therefore, I would pick Larry Fitzgerald as he has been a machine for the past few years, despite the revolving door at QB in Arizona. I'm a little concerned about the dropoff in catches this past year (down from 90 to 80), but as the Cardinals get better this year so will Fitzgerald's numbers. His 1,400 yards are only a couple hundred behind Johnson and touchdowns tend to a be a feast-or-famine sort of stat for wide receivers. The other top yardage receivers (Victor Cruz, Wes Welker) have a lot of company on their team's receiving corps, and with only one football to go around, I'll take the guy with the least competion.
We are down to the final game of the season: Super Bowl XLVI.
With EDSFootball.com headquarters located halfway between New York and Boston, this rematch of Super Bowl XLII means even more interest than usual in the Super Bowl in this part of the country. While I'm a fan of neither team, the majority of people I know are either Patriots or Giants fans including two of our contributors.
In fact, I think we should set up some friendly wager between John (Giants fan) and Dan (Patriots fan) to make it interesting. No surprise, but each of them picked their favorite team below.
Going into this week, John and Steve (a Jets fan) are 9-1 in picking the winner of the first 10 games of the postseason.
[Note: Steve's pick will be available either Friday or Saturday and I will update this post with his pick. (Pick updated below.)]
As of Thursday night (via Sportsbook.com), the Patriots are three-point favorites in Super Bowl XLVI.
Here are our Super Bowl XLVI picks:
John (follow on Twitter): New York Giants 31, New England Patriots 24
With all of the record-breaking offenses we've seen all season, the AFC and NFC Championship games this past weekend were dominated by defense. The Ravens' D was all over the field and held Tom Brady without a touchdown pass, while forcing him to throw two interceptions. In the same regard, it was the New England defense that saved the day for the Patriots. Instead of watching Brady and the Pats offense march down the field to seal the game (a sight we've all become accustomed to seeing), it was the defensive effort of backup cornerback Sterling Moore who made the most critical play down the stretch, stripping the ball from Lee Evans, in what looked like was going to be a sure touchdown. The would-be-score would have put the Ravens ahead 27-23 with under 30 seconds left in the game. Instead, Billy Cundiff shanked a 32-yard field goal that would have tied the game, to send the Patriots back to the Super Bowl.
The 49ers defense was, in my view, even more impressive than the other defenses of the day. They kept a potent Giants offense that put up 37 points on the Packers last week, completely in check. The Giants finished with 20 points, but scored 10 of them off of two special teams turnovers that occurred deep in San Francisco territory. Eli Manning was hit time after time, play after play, and was sacked six times. Fortunately for the Giants, their defense was up to the challenge of a defensive battle, and while they weren't quite as good as the Niners D, they didn't have to be. Alex Smith did a good job managing the game and not turning the ball over, but he was unable to do enough offensively to really win the game for San Francisco. His two touchdown passes were long plays to Vernon Davis for 73 and 28 yards respectively, but Smith was unable to get in any kind of a rhythm. His first completion to a wide receiver came on the last play of the third quarter, and he finished the game with only 12 completions (3 to WRs). Early on, San Francisco was successful running the ball, but by the end, the Giant defense buckled down and started stopping the run. And with Smith unable to get the ball downfield, it seemed like only a matter of time before the Giants scored. As it turns out, Kyle Williams' second fumble led to a Lawrence Tynes FG that once again kicked the Giants to the Super Bowl.
We've been hearing about the comparisons to the 2007 team for a few weeks now, and this past weekend put the icing on the cake. Once again, the Giants won the NFC Championship on an overtime field goal that came as a result of a turnover; and once again, the New England Patriots await them. Forget the fact that the Patriots really didn't look very good this past weekend and that their 31st-ranked defense has made them look vulnerable for much of the season. Forget the fact that the Giants were 9-7 on the year and no team in the Super Bowl era has ever won the Championship with fewer than 10 regular-season wins. All that stuff goes out the window. There are so many variables to analyze, and so many things one could consider when making a prediction about Super Bowl 46. Rather than focus on all those things, I'm going to concentrate on what I feel is the most important variable: the emergence of Eli Manning as one of the game's best quarterbacks. His numbers will never be as spectacular as guys like Rodgers, Brees, Brady, or his older brother Peyton. But when it comes down to it, is there anyone who has been as clutch as Eli? He has been brilliant late in games, throwing for more touchdown passes in the fourth quarter than any quarterback in the history of the game. His victory over San Francisco gave him his fifth road playoff win, more than any other quarterback in history. Tom Brady will go down as one of the top five or even top three quarterbacks of all time, but right now, today, Eli is playing better football. He is playing better against a weaker defense than Brady who will be going up against one of the best front four's in the game, and a secondary that has been playing much better of late. I expect the Giants defense to pressure Brady and limit his scoring opportunities, while I expect Eli to have a much easier time finding the endzone. I'd love to see a game that is as good as it's predecessor, with each quarterback getting an opportunity to win it for their team in the final minutes. Ultimately, I'm going to take the more complete team, and the team that is playing as hot as anyone in the last five weeks. No surprise here, I'm taking the Giants win their second straight Super Bowl over the Patriots 31-24. Go GMEN!
[Editor's note: HOMER!]
Dan (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 21, New York Giants 17
This year's championship game will rematch one of the greatest games ever between the Patriots and Giants. This game boasts two of the league's hottest teams as the Giants have won five straight, and the Patriots have not lost since the Giants beat them in October. The Giants won head-to-head, 24-20, on a last-minute Eli Manning drive, but the Patriots were able to move the ball, posting 438 yards to the Giants' 361.
In the playoffs, the Giants have rushed for an average of 117 yards per game and 287 through the air. The Patriots have rushed for 121 yards and 299 passing. This game will be won by the respective offensive and defensive lines. Can the Giants front four pressure Brady, and can their weak secondary cover Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski? Can the Patriots slow the red hot Manning, and cover their dynamic receivers Cruz and Nicks? This pick probably reeks of homerism, but the Patriots will get a measure of revenge as Brady and Belichick will figure a way.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): New York Giants 24, New England Patriots 20
Based on regular-season stats, neither team was balanced. Both teams ranked in the top eight in offense and in the bottom six in defense, but they have both been more balanced in the postseason. The Giants have played an extra postseason game to get to the Super Bowl, but the Giants and Patriots have allowed 13 and 15 points per game, respectively, in the playoffs.
One of only three quarterbacks to throw for 4,000-plus yards in each of the past three seasons, Manning played much better against the 49ers last week than the stats indicated. In the past four weeks, all must-win games, Manning has thrown for 1,259 yards and has an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. While either Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz have had 100-yard games, Mario Manningham has scored a touchdown in three straight games.
While the Patriots have an equally-explosive passing attack led by Tom Brady, their defense has faced only Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco in the postseason so their improved defensive stats should be taken with a grain of salt. On the other hand, the Giants shut down Matt Ryan and held Aaron Rodgers to his worst passer rating (78.5) of the season.
Both teams have great offenses, but I like the overall balance of the Giants and think they pull out a close win.
Sean (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 27, New York Giants 23
Sean plans on posting his pick on his blog next week, but he is leaning towards the Patriots and sent me a final score prediction (as noted).
[UPDATE AS OF 1/29/12] Steve: New England Patriots 34, New York Giants 24
The sports media loves the Giants-Patriots rematch for the Super Bowl, as it provides a litany of storylines to talk about. There are obvious similarities to the last championship matchup between the two, with Giants being the “hot” team and the Patriots looking like an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. There’s the Parcells connection: both teams previously coached by the Hall-of-Famer and both head coaches, Coughlin and Belichick, former assistants under Parcells. Not to mention the intriguing position matchups like the debate of best quarterback, Tom Brady vs. Peyton Eli Manning. However interesting, most of these storylines are really just noise in terms of analyzing the game and predicting a potential winner. Given the dynamics, this game has a very public interest beyond the usual Super Bowl hype. The line opened with the Patriots favored by 4 and it quickly compressed to 2 without any meaningful news (i.e., Tom Brady breaking his leg), showing a lot of public money on the Giants. Since I think most of what you’ll hear will be a distraction, I’ll break-down three myths you’ll hear about and actually tell you whether they are fact or fiction.
Myth 1 - Eli Manning played better than all the other playoff QBs. I’m sorry, but I’m calling fiction on this one and I nearly swerved off the road when I first heard this. Let’s keep in mind that box scores don’t tell the whole story. Although the stats say Manning went interception free in the San Francisco game, he was lucky to do so and as such it probably saved the Giants the game. In San Fran, Dashon Goldson should have had an interception had he not knocked out his teammate, Tarell Brown, who was also in position for the ball. Had Brown or Goldson made that pick, the Giants lose the game. Manning has a habit of throwing into double coverage, and being saved by his wide receivers.
Myth 2 – The Giants front four are the best in the NFL. This is close enough to fact that I’ll support the position. The Giants can switch to what they call their “NASCAR” package on obviously passing down, which enable them to generate substantial pass rush with Tuck, Pierre-Paul, and Umenyiora (and Mathius Kiwanuka as the 4th DE in this package), in the game at the same time. Unfortunately, it won’t provide great deal of help in stopping the Patriots for a few reasons. First and foremost, Brady and Patriots can run an effective no-huddle, preventing the Giants from substituting to the desired personnel. Secondary to that, the Patriots tight-ends, both Gronkowksi and Hernandez, will be used in either the 12 or 22 sets (one TE, 2 RB; 2 TE, 2 RB). The flexibility to line-up Gronk or Hernandez at the line or in the backfield, will force the Giants into decisions at the line of scrimmage that their base personnel can’t handle, especially if the Patriots try to run.
Myth 3 – The Patriots can’t win the championship with the 2nd worst defense in the NFL. To this, I say statistics is just another form of lying. Yes, technically, by total defense the Patriots were 31 of 32 in the NFL. Then again the “mighty Giants D” were 27th. Both defenses are better than the numbers say. The Patriots were up by multiple touchdowns frequently this season and were actually middle of the pack (15th overall), when it came to points against. The Giants were only slightly better than their total defense stat at 25th. What would concern me about the Patriots D, is the loss of Andre Carter a few weeks ago. He was their best pass rusher and will make the Pats susceptible to Manning throwing downfield to Cruz and Nicks.
So to sum it all up: Brady is better than Manning, the Giants D-Line will be neutralized, and the Patriots defense is underrated. It sounds like a Patriots win to me – but I do think this will turn into somewhat of a shootout.
Seahawks wide receiver Sidney Rice was never 100 percent at any point last season.
After signing a big free-agent deal last offseason, Rice missed the first two games of the season with a torn labrum and the final five games with a concussion, which landed him on injured reserve.
Over the past two years, Rice has had three concussions, operations on both shoulders and hip surgery before the start of the 2010 season.
Two years removed from his breakout season (2009) of 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns, Rice has 49 receptions for 764 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games over the past two years combined.
The Colts are no longer searching for a head-coaching replacement for Jim Caldwell, who was fired last week. However, the Ravens are now searching for a defensive coordinator.
Chuck Pagano, who was defensive coordinator in Baltimore last year, will be the new head coach in Indianapolis. Before being promoted to defensive coordinator last year, Pagano was the Ravens secondary coach for the previous three seasons.
Last year, the Ravens ranked third in scoring defense (16.6 points allowed per game) and in total defense (288.9 yards allowed per game). The two-win Colts allowed 26.9 PPG and 370.9 YPG last year.
Earlier this month, Chuck's brother John was promoted to defensive coordinator in San Diego.
With the very uncertain future of quarterback Peyton Manning, who is due a $28 million bonus on March 8th, it's looking like the Colts will have a new general manager (Ryan Grigson), head coach (Pagano) and starting quarterback (Andrew Luck?) in 2012.
Earlier today, we released the first iteration of Brendan Donahue's 2012 NFL Mock Draft.
Here is how he projects the first round to begin:
1. Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: This is already a done deal according to owner Jim Irsay. Luck has been rated as the best QB prospect since John Elway so this is pretty much a no-brainer especially now that the Colts have made it clear that they are clearing house and going into a full rebuilding mode.
2. Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: I could see the Rams being tempted by a team trying to trade up to get RG3 and moving this pick, but if they stay put I look for them to add the most dynamic weapon available in the draft. Although I don't have Blackmon as highly rated as Calvin Johnson, I do see him having an instant impact in the NFL and developing into a Pro Bowl receiver down the road.
3. Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC: Maybe the safest pick in the entire draft. The clear cut best tackle in the draft and someone that the Vikings can put on Chrisian Ponder's blind side and protect him for the next 10 years (this is if Ponder plays for the next ten years...). If Rams trade their pick or pass on Blackmon for some reason, look for Vikings to snatch him up here.
4. Browns - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The Heisman winner has been rapidly moving up draft boards and could eventually move up to #2 come draft day but for this mock were going to assume everyone drafts where they are slated and the Browns would be very happy to draft RGIII here. I think they are ready to concede that Colt McCoy is not a franchise QB in the NFL and will jump at the opportunity to add one here.
5. Bucs - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: Based on how the Bucs finished the year, they could clearly use help in just about every area. With Blackmon off the board however, I look for them to add the best cornerback available in Morris Claiborne. A big physical corner who is also considered the best cover corner in the draft is exactly what they need as they battle in the same division with the air attacks of the Saints and Falcons.
With both Championship Games behind us, there is no only one game left in the 2011 season: Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis on February 5th.
The Patriots escaped with a win after a 32-yard missed field goal attempt by Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff. For the Giants, it was a fumble by Kyle Williams that set up the game-winning field goal by Lawrence Tynes in overtime.
Early odds from Sportsbook.com shows that the Patriots are favorited by a field goal over the Giants in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII.
Going into the Super Bowl, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is tied with Hall-of-Famer Joe Montana for most postseason wins (16).
The Giants are playing their best football at the right time although they became the first team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl with a negative point differential in the regular season (-6).
Although he rolled his ankle during practice this week, Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks is listed as probable on the injury report and is expected to play.
During the regular season, Nicks had a solid year (76 receptions for 1,192 yards and seven touchdowns). He set a career high in yards but fell short of his career highs in receptions (79) and touchdowns (11) set in 2010.
And, of course, his performance was overshadowed by what teammate Victor Cruz did in setting the franchise record in receiving yards (1,536).
The weather may not be great in San Francisco for the NFC Championship Game with all the rain in the forecast.
Based on a prop bet from Sportsbook.com, the over/under for receiving yards for Nicks this weekend is 80.5 yards.
Will Nicks have another big week? Or will finish with 80 yards or less?
Although we still have three games left in the 2011 NFL season, it's never too early to look ahead to the next season.
Even if you made it to your league's championship game and it was played in Week 16, nearly a full month has passed since your season ended.
Over the next week or so, we will release our initial 2012 fantasy football rankings. The plan is to update them after the start of the NFL free-agency period and then again after the 2012 NFL Draft. When July rolls around, they will be updated more frequently and we plan on creating point-per-reception (PPR) rankings as well as rankings for keeper leagues.
For now, we will take a look at what you should do if you had the first overall pick and drafted today.
Let's be clear about one thing: getting the first overall (or your first-round) pick won't win you a championship. Getting it wrong, however, may lose it for you though.
Using standard scoring, who should be the No. 1 overall pick in 2012 fantasy football drafts?
If next year's draft were to be held today, there are three players I would struggle with to decide who should be number one overall: Arian Foster, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Generally, running backs dominate the first round, and there are plenty of great ones out there. Guys like Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, and MJD are all first-round picks. However, Brees and Rodgers (even more than Brady) have separated themselves from the rest of the pack when it comes to putting up fantasy numbers, and having one of these studs is a significant advantage over other strong quarterback choices like Tony Romo or Eli Manning. Because of this discrepancy between a "good" QB option and one of these elite guys, I would strongly consider taking one of the quarterbacks at number one overall. However, if I had to choose today, I think I would go with Arian Foster. For the second year in a row, Foster was an absolute fantasy beast. He is the most consistent part of the Texans' offense as both a running back as well as a receiver. Had he been healthy all year, he likely would have challenged for his second rushing title in two years. Foster is the best in the game, and my choice for top pick in fantasy next year.
The player I want was my No. 1 rated RB last year and that is Ray Rice. Rice was first in the NFL in total yards (2,068) and second in totals TDs (15). I think Rice is the best RB in football, and is a lock for at least top 5 this next season. The reasoning behind my Rice pick comes down to who I think will be available to me at the end of the 2nd round. Drafting Aaron Rodgers is awfully tempting. I am going to get a guy who is going to get me 4,000+ yards and 40 TD easy, but there are so many talented QBs in the league that I will be happy with a Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton at the end of the 2nd round. Even someone like Tom Brady could slip. I think the combo of Rice/Stafford is better then Rodgers/Reggie Bush. That is if I went with a QB in rounds 2/3. I could get a Jimmy Graham/Roddy White there and grab someone like Romo with my back-to-backs the next time around. Romo in the 5th, is going to be better than Jonathan Stewart (believe me, you don't want that headache).
If I land the number one pick in a fantasy draft, PPR or not, I am taking Ray Rice. Rice was the only running back to compile 2000 yards from scrimmage, and also scored 15 touchdowns. Arian Foster has Ben Tate and Andre Johnson as his foils, Maurice Jones-Drew will face 10-man fronts, and Chris Johnson is not to be trusted. I want the sure thing with the number one pick, and the Ravens offense goes as Rice goes.
The decision on the number 1 overall pick is really a convergence of styles. To use a baseball analagy, do you swing for the fences or try to win with singles? - I'm a fan of hitting singles, which means I want a player with a high level of consistency and ability to out-produce the "average player" or his peer group on a weekly basis. Traditional draft philosphy has put a premium on running backs, but given the implementation of platoons and near every season an injury (Jamaal Charles looks great for one game) or general underperformance effectively killing the fantasy season of some running backs and thus their owners (Yes - I'm still bitter at Chris Johnson). Therefore, I want a quarterback and there are really only three options: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady. I think you'll be fine with either, but my preference is Drew Brees because Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham give the Saints the best redzone targets of any of the three team's receiving corps. If you want to try for the home run, go and draft a running back - maybe AP comes back from the knee injury the same or Ben Tate doesn't take too many carries from Arian Foster, but in hindsight you may be really wishing you didn't have to decide between Mark Sanchez or Matt Hasselbeck at QB.
For me, the top three picks in 2012 should be the following three players (not particularly in order): Baltimore's Ray Rice, Houston's Arian Foster and Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy. At this point, however, I think that would be my order, but it's close between Rice and Foster. No other player had more yards from scrimmage than Foster (4,061) and Rice (3,844) over the past two seasons. Not only did Rice lead in yards from scrimmage this season (partly due to Foster missing a couple of games), but he scored 15 touchdowns, which is nearly twice his previous high of eight (in 2009). Even though Foster should get a heavy workload either way, he has a talented backup in Ben Tate, who just missed rushing for 1,000 yards this season. It's so close between the top two, but I'd give the edge to Rice.
Related: Fantasy Rankings for the Championship-Game Round: QBs - RBs - WRs - TEs
Yesterday's poll of the day asked how many 100-yard rushers we would see this weekend considering how few we've seen this postseason so far.
Plus, the two backs that have had a 100-yard rushing game have seen their team get ousted from the playofffs.
Unlike the running backs, the tight ends have had monster games.
As we noted on Sunday, a group of four top tight ends (New England's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, New Orleans' Jimmy Graham and San Francisco's Vernon Davis) scored a total of eight touchdowns last week.
Gronkowski himself caught three of those touchdowns and now has a total of 20 receiving touchdowns and one rushing touchdown through 17 games this season.
Will the good times continue to roll for Gronkowski, who is No. 1 in our tight end rankings for this weekend's games?
The Ravens have allowed a total of only 11 passing touchdowns this season and only three of them have gone to tight ends: Evan Moore had two in each of their games and Jacob Tamme had one.
How many touchdowns will Gronkowski score this week?
Who doesn't want what Mike Singletary wants: Winners?!?!
The guy that Singletary called out in his infamous press conference (and sent to the showers) had the game of his life last week.
Not only did 49ers tight end Vernon Davis catch two touchdown passes, but he caught the game-winning score in the final minute to send the Niners to the NFC Championship Game since they hosted the Packers back in January 1998.
Based on odds from SportsBook.com, the 49ers are favored by less than a field goal. And with most attributing three points to the home-field advantage, that is saying that the Giants would be slight favorites on a neutral field.
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the 49ers-Giants game:
John (follow on Twitter): New York Giants 23, San Francisco 49ers 19
The early game on Saturday between the Saints and 49ers was the best playoff game in recent memory. I had picked San Francisco going into the game, but I have to admit, when the Saints took a late lead, I didn't think that the Niners had the mental toughness to pull it out. They had dominated the game with big hit after big hit, had forced five turnovers, and after jumping out to a 17-0 lead, they lost it not once, but twice in the final four minutes of the game. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis were men among boys down the stretch of that game, and the 14-yard touchdown strike with 0:09 to play was incredible. The emotional display in the wake of that comeback is why we all watch. It was a great moment in sports for 49er fans and sports fans alike.
The late game between the Giants and Packers was a completely different story. This one was one-sided from the start and not the way that most people thought it would be. The Giants went into Lambeau Field against a 15-1 Packer team and took control early. Hakeem Nicks had his second big game of the playoffs, catching seven passes for 165 yards and scoring another two touchdowns, including a 35-yard Hail Mary pass to end the first half. Eli Manning did throw one interception, but threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns to help the Giants move on. The Giant defense forced four turnovers and disrupted a potent Packer offense, forcing fumbles (some were clear fumbles that were not called as such) and sacked Rodgers four times. Once again, the Giants dominate all three phases of the game. It was an impressive victory to say the least from a team that is drawing more and more comparisons to the '07 team that won perhaps the greatest Super Bowl ever played against a previously undefeated Patriots team.
Both the 49ers and the Giants are playing excellent football. The 49ers bruising defense stepped up against a record-breaking Saints offense. In addition, Alex Smith showed us that he has what it takes to perform on the biggest stage, leading two impressive drives in the closing minutes to win it. The Giants have not been in any close games of late, which could work against them if the 49ers are able to hang with Eli and the Giant offense. It really wouldn't be shocking to see either one of these teams emerge, but I feel fairly confident taking the Giants here. Like the Packers last year, who almost missed the playoffs, the Giants are proving that you don't have to be the best team in the regular season to win it all; you just need to get hot at the right time. The Giants are the hottest team in football and are doing it on both sides of the ball. I'm ready for Giants/Patriots Part II.
[Editor's Note: Remember last week when John, a Giants' fan, said we can call him a homer? HOMER! Well, that's it ... on with the predictions.]
Sean (follow on Twitter): New York Giants 31, San Francisco 49ers 17
The NFC games this past weekend were probably the best set of games imaginable as a fan of the NFL. I think this game will disappoint some. First off, I am rooting for an All-Harbaugh Super Bowl. Unfortunately, I think I am going to be an unhappy camper Sunday night when we have a rematch of Super Bowl XLII.
The 49ers won this matchup in Week 10, 27-20, but this is a completely different Giants team now. The Giants are at full strength basically now. The Giants don't have the same dominant O-Line and D-Line that they had back in 2007. Their D-Line is very good especially since they have so many guys they can plug in and play. When they were battling injuries earlier this year, they weren't getting nearly as much pass rush as they are now, as the bodies were just not fresh enough. This has been the key to the Giants defense, because as much as the secondary has been playing better as of late, they are still just a very average bunch skill wise.
Eli Manning hands down is the Giants MVP. He turned a no-named receiver by most (Victor Cruz) into an elite talent over night. The most talented WR Hakeem Nicks has been on fire these playoffs hauling in 13 receptions for 280 yards and four TDs. Let's also not forget about former No. 2 WR Mario Manningham, who has scored in each playoff game as well. Eli has plenty of weapons, and if we saw one thing this past week, it is the 49ers are beatable through the air. The 49ers are like the Ravens where they will beat the shit out of you every play until you breakdown physically and mentally. They match up well versus smashmouth teams, but unfortunately for San Francisco, the Giants are no longer the ground-and-pound teams that we are used to seeing.
I think the party is over for Alex Smith and the 49ers. Last week was like their Super Bowl with that emotional come-from-behind win in the final seconds. I think Smith and the 49ers will come out flat in this one. Call it a Super Bowl hangover. I think the Giants score early and often which will force San Fransisco to abandon their run game which will lead to some Alex Smith mistakes. Smith may be the QB for the future for the 49ers, but the Giants are red hot, and they are the team to beat not only in the NFC, but the NFL. The Giants win in a game that is not as close as the score tells 31-17.
In what seems like a late 80's matchup, the Giants will travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers who won a late shootout with the Saints. The Giants have played the 49ers this year, as they lost on the road, 27-20, which was the second road game of the Giants trip from hell. The Giants were able to move the ball on the vaunted 49ers defense, as they had a combined 395 yards on the day, but fell short in the end. The 49ers forced two turnovers against the Giants, and last week forced an impressive five turnovers against the Saints. New York has the fourth-best passing offense, and they will need it as they have the worst rushing attack going against the league's best rushing defense. This game will be tight, and San Francisco has one of the best closing defenses I've seen in a long time. I think it will be tough for the Giants playing their third playoff game, coming off an emotional game in Green Bay, and then having to travel across the country to play the league's most physical team. 49ers in a tight game.
Steve: New York Giants 35, San Francisco 49ers 24
My playoff predictions were spoiled with Giants upsetting the Packers last week in Lambeau. With that I’m bewildered as to how to pick this game because I felt confident the Packers would run through the NFC. We do have the game earlier this season to look back upon when the 49ers won 27-20, however that was during a five-game stretch in which the Giants played four of five division winners and the Eagles. This is a rejuvenated, healthier Giants team and I’d expect a different game from them.
For this week, in advance of a potential Super Harbaugh Bowl, what we have is Jim trying to one-up his brother John by leading his team past the championship round in his rookie coaching season. The parallels between John Harbaugh's first season as head coach of the Ravens and Jim Harbaugh's first season with 49ers are obvious, specifically style of play and the turnaround of both teams. In 2008, John Harbaugh inherited an under-achieving 5-11 Ravens team that, loaded with talent, went onto to lose in the AFC Championship Game to Pittsburgh. Flash forward to the 2011-12 season, Jim Harbaugh inherited an under-achieving 6-10 49ers team and has lead them to the NFC Championship Game in his first season.
Probably the only drawback to the quick turnaround on this 49ers team, is the lack of big game experience. This didn’t seem to be a problem last week as Alex Smith lead the 49ers on a late touchdown drive to win the game, but one game does not make the incarnation of Joe Montana. Some of the success Smith had last week against the Saints, will be muted this week by a Giants defense that beyond my expectation held the highest-scoring offense in the NFL to a mere 20 points, 15 below their season average. Unlike last week where they had to slow down the passing attack of the Packers, this week for the Giants to be successful they’ll have to stop the run game of the 49ers, which unfortunately has been a problem for them all season. Given the Niners proclivity for running the ball and the Giants inability to stop the run, I expect the 49ers to move the ball down the field, but scoring touchdowns against the Giants might be tougher than it was against the Saints. Furthermore, it took four Saints turnovers for the 49ers to be position to win that game, so I’ll pick the Giants in a game as back and forth as my writing.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): San Francisco 49ers 24, New York Giants 23
Without question, the Giants are playing as well as any of the four remaining teams. Last week, they easily handled the defending champions. To go along with a great pass rush, they have a well-balanced offense. Granted, they ranked last in the NFL in rushing offense (yardage) in the regular season, but they scored the sixth-most rushing touchdowns (17) and have been running the ball better lately.
That said, they face the league's best rush defense. San Francisco allowed only 77.3 rushing yards per game and did not allow a rushing touchdown until Seattle's Marshawn Lynch scored in Week 16. Plus they tied for second in interceptions (23) and second in forced fumbles (18). While Eli Manning has been playing nearly mistake-free over the past three weeks (only one interception), it wouldn't surprise me to see the 49ers force him to throw a few picks. As we witnessed last week, if this game turns out to be a shootout, how can we go against the gun-slinging Alex Smith? (Ok, that last part was a joke, but Smith showed us something last week.)
The NFL season has a total of 267 meaningful games: 256 regular-season games and 11 postseason games.
We are down to three games before we begin the offseason. (At least this time around, we won't have to worry about the status of the 2012 season.)
Through the first eight playoff games, we have a cumulative record of 28-12 and John Trifone and Steve Woodhull have picked seven out of eight games correctly.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Patriots-Ravensgame:
John (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 27, Baltimore Ravens 16
The Ravens had the least impressive victory of the weekend, opening up a 17-0 lead against the Texans early, and going on to score only three points in the final three quarters of the game. Houston was in it until the end, and you got the feeling that had they not been forced to start a rookie quarterback (who threw three interceptions), Baltimore may be going home right now instead of on to New England. Still, a W is a W, and at the end of the day, the Ravens did what they needed to do to advance. Style points don't count for anything in this league. All that matters is Baltimore is moving on to the AFC Championship.
The Patriots, on the other hand, had the most impressive victory of the weekend, destroying the Broncos, 45-10. Brady threw for a playoff record six touchdowns, which he had early in the third quarter. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was unstoppable once again, catching 10 balls for 145 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots defense also seemed to play well, shutting down Tebow and holding the Broncos to just 10 points.
Strange as it may seem, I'm not putting too much stock into either of these games. The Ravens are accustomed to winning ugly games, and it's really not all that surprising that their offense struggled with the number two defense in the league. What I took from that game is that Baltimore made plays when they had to. I expect a completely different Ravens team next week. As Ray Lewis said, they're "not the Broncos."
Similarly, the Patriots played the game that everyone expected them to play. "They are who we thought they were." The spread wasn't 13 1/2 because people were expecting a tight one. Somehow, the Broncos found a way to eek out a home game against Pittsburgh as a double-digit underdog, but a hostile environment against a Patriots team with something to prove was obviously quite a different story.
With all that said, I'm taking the Patriots to move on to the Super Bowl this year. This looks to be a relatively close game that's sure to be a fantastic chess match between a Ray Lewis and Ed Reed-led defense and a Belichick and Brady-led offense. Ultimately, though, the Patriots will just be too much for Baltimore. The Patriots offense is going to put up points, and I just have not seen enough out of Joe Flacco to make me think that they can win this one. Look for the Patriots to avenge their home loss in the first round of the playoffs from two years ago, and get back to their first Super Bowl since their perfect season, where they met and were defeated by the New York Giants.
Sean (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 27, Baltimore Ravens 23
Baltimore has been a tricky team to figure out this year. They played awful versus the Texans, but they were lucky enough to get a few turnovers which lead to some easy points. They aren't going to be able to rely on those turnovers to beat New England. The Ravens offense is going to need to do a better job moving the ball and finishing drives with touchdowns, because the Patriots will score plenty of points. The Patriots defense looked great against the Broncos, but let's remember one thing, it was just the Broncos! Ray Rice may be the most valuable player to this team, and there is no doubt the Ravens need to give him plenty of touches and get him going, but Joe Flacco is the key to this game. Flacco has been hot and cold all year. One week he looks like he could be a franchise-type QB, and then the next week there are rumors about Peyton Manning saving the team next season. Flacco is going to need to step up and have a big game.
It's funny that all the talk this year has been about Rodgers and Brees, and both of those guys are sitting home, and the best QB in the NFL is still playing. Brady has been playing great this season, and shouldn't get overlooked as a true MVP candidate. One thing that will be tough for Brady is that the Ravens play well against opposing TEs. The Ravens only give up 7 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. Only the Rams gave up less points to TEs. It will be tough to stop Gronkowski and Hernandez though. I really like Brady and the Pats in the revenge factor here after that last embarrassing loss in the playoffs a few years back. I like the Ravens to cover the 7 1/2, but the Pats win 27-23. (I really hope the Ravens win though.)
[Related: Take our poll here on who should be league MVP.]
The AFC Championship Game will be a chalk matchup of the number one and two seeds overall, and I think the Patriots will be salivating to get a little bit of revenge. The Ravens bounced the Patriots in the 2010 playoffs in style by heaping a 33-14 beating on New England, and that game wasn't even that close. Historically the Patriots have done well against the Ravens, as they have gone 7-1 in their last 8 against Baltimore, which is an impressive mark against an elite team. Although New England has not really played a team with a winning record as of late, the Patriots seem as motivated as the classic championship teams of past. The Ravens have put up an exceptional run on defense this year, as they have limited teams to 201 yards through the air, and only 92 yards on the ground. The Patriots will look to counter with the second-best passing offense in the league, as they have averaged 308 yards per game. To me, when a defensive player (Ed Reed) calls out his quarterback (Joe Flacco) during championship week, that never bodes well for that team. The Patriots will rattle Flacco in the big moment, will force turnovers, and with Brady supremely motivated will have enough to get to the Super Bowl.
Steve: New England Patriots 37, Baltimore Ravens 27
The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was the wild-card round of 2009, a game most Patriot fans want to forget. That game saw the Patriots fall behind 24-0 in the first quarter as Ray Rice broke an 83-yard run for a TD on the first play from scrimmage. Subsequently the Patriots proceeded repeatedly to shoot themselves in the foot to the tune of three turnovers in the first quarter to set up the other 17 first quarter Ravens points. Because of the turnovers early, the Ravens actually only accumulated 41 yards of offense to earn 17 points – I don’t know how to prove it but that must be some kind of record.
Two years after that debacle much of the key personnel is still the same for both ball clubs. The biggest losses and acquisitions both sits with the Patriots. The Patriot defense has slowly degraded the past couple of years; however, the addition of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at tight end, make this offense something special. Brady set an NFL record with five touchdown passes in the first half last week, and although I don’t think he can replicate that, I would expect another big week. Joe Flacco will try to keep up and will certainly exceed the 34 yards of passing he had in 2009, perhaps you could add a zero to the end of that, but it won’t be enough. The Patriots see the track to the Super Bowl laid out of them, and I expect that train to keep rolling. They won’t score 45 against this defense, but they’ll get enough.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 31, Baltimore Ravens 24
In only one half of football last week, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady threw five touchdowns, which set the NFL postseason record. Brady finished the game with six touchdowns, three of which went to tight end Rob Gronkowski. In 17 games, Gronkowski has a total of 21 touchdowns (20 receiving and one rushing). As prolific as the Patriots passing offense has been, the Ravens defense has been equally as stingy.
The Ravens have allowed a league-low 11 passing touchdowns and no more than one passing touchdown in any game through 17 games while intercepting 18 passes. That said, the Ravens have faced the worst group of quarterbacks in the NFL during that stretch. The four best quarterbacks they faced were Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton. The bad ones were guys like Blaine Gabbert, Tarvaris Jackson, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Dan Orlovsky, etc. In other words, I think the Ravens defense is overrated to some degree.
The Ravens aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home and the Patriots are extremely tough to beat at home. Plus it's hard to trust Joe Flacco, especially when it seems like not even Ed Reed does.
So far, there are eight postseason games in the books and three games to go including both conference championship games this weekend.
And so far, there have been a total of three 100-yard rushers in the postseason.
Houston's Arian Foster has done it twice and Pittsburgh's Isaac Redman has done it once. In fact, Foster set the record for most rushing yards in a player's first two postseason games.
However, the Texans and Steelers have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The top three running backs in our fantasy football rankings for the conference championship round of the playoffs are Baltimore's Ray Rice, San Francisco's Frank Gore and New York's Ahmad Bradshaw.
During the regular season, Saints quarterback Drew Brees set multiple single-season passing records: yards (5,476), completions (468), completion percentage (71.2 percent), etc.
In the first two weeks of the postseason, Brees threw for more than 460 yards in each game and now has accounted for two of the three highest passing yardage games in NFL postseason history. In those two games, Brees completed 73 of his 106 attempts for 928 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions.
Despite those performances, however, Brees and the Saints lost in the most exciting game of the weekend.
Of the remaining four quarterbacks, there are two elite quarterbacks but they face elite defenses. While the other two quarterbacks aren't elite from a fantasy perspective, they have better matchups.
Here are our quarterback rankings for the championship-game round of the playoffs:
1. Tom Brady, Patriots (vs. BAL): With all the media attention surrounding last week's matchup against the Broncos, Brady and the Patriots put on a clinic, especially as he threw a postseason-record five touchdowns in the first half. Brady ended the game with six touchdowns and 363 passing yards, which was a postseason high for Brady. Counting their postseason win over the Texans, the Ravens defense has allowed only 11 passing touchdowns and has 18 interceptions this season.
2. Eli Manning, Giants (at SF): Earlier in the season, Manning threw for 311 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions the first time the Giants played the Niners. Going back to the regular-season finale, an elimination game for the Giants (and Cowboys), Manning has thrown exactly 32 or 33 passes in each game. During this three-game stretch, Eli has completed 68 of his 98 pass attempts for 953 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception.
3. Alex Smith, 49ers (vs NYG): Down 24-23 with four minutes to go, Smith led the Niners to a go-ahead score and later a game-winning score against Brees and the Saints. While Smith still has not reached 300 passing yards in any games this season, he came really close (a season-high 299) last week. It was also the first time he threw more than 40 times in a game and only the second time this season that he threw three touchdowns (plus he ran it in for another).
4. Joe Flacco, Ravens (at NE): For me, there is less difference between Smith and Flacco than there is between Brady and Manning. The good news is Flacco has a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his past three games and he faces the league's 31st-ranked pass defense this week. The bad news is he has had 15 or less completions and 176 passing yards or less in all three of those games.
Running backs have not flourished this postseason. In fact, running backs have collectively reached the 100-yard rushing mark only three times in eight postseason games over the past two weeks.
Houston's Arian Foster did it twice and Pittsburgh's Isaac Redman did it once, but both play for teams that have been eliminated from the postseason.
Here are our running back rankings for the championship-game round of the playoffs:
1. Ray Rice, Ravens (at NE): No running back had more yards from scrimmage than Rice (2,068) during the regular season. Rice set a career high in rushing yards (1,364) and receiving yards (704) as well as touchdowns (15). Although Rice had a mediocre game last week, it was the seventh time in eight weeks that Rice had 20-plus carries.
2. Frank Gore, 49ers (vs NYG): Last week, Gore had 13 carries for 89 rushing yards plus 38 receiving yards on seven receptions. The last time Gore faced the Giants, he and I both finished with zero rushing yards although Gore had six carries. Although I expect more from Gore (not me) this time around, the Giants have not allowed a running back to gain more than 58 rushing yards in their past five games.
3. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (at SF): Bradshaw, who scored four touchdowns in the final three regular-season games, has had 63 rushing yards and no touchdowns in back-to-back games. The 49ers, who ranked first in run defense this year, allowed only 37 rushing yards to the Saints last week.
4. Brandon Jacobs, Giants (at SF): Jacobs didn't run the ball as well last week as he did during the divisional round, but he did score a touchdown late to salvage a respectable fantasy performance (eight points). Jacobs' spot here has as much to do with BenJarvus Green-Ellis as it does with Jacobs himself.
5. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots (vs BAL): The last time Green-Ellis rushed for 30-plus yards was on November 27th against Philadelphia (44 yards). In fact, tight end Aaron Hernandez has more rushing yards (104) over the past four games than Green-Ellis (77). The Law Firm's value comes from the potential to score a touchdown (11 rushing touchdowns in the regular season).
6. Kendall Hunter, 49ers (vs NYG): Hunter should get somewhere around 6-10 touches and finish with 30 to 50 yards from scrimmage.
7. Stevan Ridley, Patriots (vs BAL): Ridley has run the ball more effectively than any other Patriots running back in the past four games. Although he only had four carries for 21 yards last week, Ridley had 39 carries for 210 yards (5.38 yards per carry) in the team's final three regular-season games.
8. Ricky Williams, Ravens (at NE): With only four teams still alive in the postseason, you shouldn't expect too much from the eighth-ranked running back. Williams has averaged a bit more than seven carries per game and 36 yards from scrimmage through last week.
If the Giants and Patriots don't win this weekend to advance to the Super Bowl in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII, the alternative would be a rematch of the Harbaugh Bowl.
From an offensive standpoint, there was little to be thankful for on that Thanksgiving evening. After all, Baltimore's Joe Flacco and San Francisco's Alex Smith combined for only 301 passing yards in that game.
A Ravens-49ers Super Bowl would mean that the best receiver in the Super Bowl would then be either Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin or Torrey Smith, depending on your opinion.
Here are our wide receiver rankings for the championship-game round of the playoffs:
1. Hakeem Nicks, Giants (at SF): In two postseason games, Nicks has a total of 13 receptions for 280 yards and four touchdowns including an amazing Hail Mary catch at the end of the first half against the Packers.
2. Wes Welker, Patriots (vs BAL): In his past two games, Welker has six receptions for 50-something yards in each game. While he caught one of Tom Brady's six touchdown passes last week, the Ravens have allowed only 11 passing touchdowns in 17 games.
3. Victor Cruz, Giants (at SF): Cruz had a remarkable regular season: 82 receptions for a franchise-record 1,536 yards and nine touchdowns. That said, he's had a salsa-free postseason so far: seven receptions for 102 yards and no touchdowns.
4. Michael Crabtree, 49ers (vs NYG): Crabtree finished with four receptions (on 10 targets) for 25 yards and a touchdown last week, but he should have had more. Crabtree, who is normally a sure-handed receiver, had numerous drops last week.
5. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (at NE): Boldin returned from his knee injury and posted a solid performance last week against the Texans. Boldin finished with 73 yards and a touchdown as the Texans focused on slowing down the speedy Torrey Smith.
6. Torrey Smith, Ravens (at NE): Smith now has a 10-game streak of games with either double-digit fantasy points (four games) or three points or less (six games). He finished with one reception for nine yards (zero points in leagues that don't award fractional points) last week.
7. Mario Manningham, Giants (at SF): While Manningham has only seven receptions for 99 yards combined in New York's two playoff games, he has scored in both games. Of the Giants three receivers on this list, it was Manningham that had the best performance in their first matchup against the Niners with six receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown.
8. Deion Branch, Patriots (vs BAL): Branch, a former Super Bowl MVP, earned fantasy owners 14 points last week largely due to a 61-yard touchdown, but he's been too inconsistent to rely on for that kind of production every week.
9. Kyle Williams, 49ers (vs NYG): Williams had only two receptions on his six targets for 12 yards last week. While I don't expect a huge game from Williams (if that's not obvious from his spot in my rankings), I can see a game with three or four receptions for 40-50 yards.
We noted how a quartet of tight ends posted monster stats in the divisional round. While one of those four tight ends (Saints Jimmy Graham) won't be playing this weekend, the other three play as home favorites in the AFC and NFC Championship games.
Here are our tight end rankings for the championship-game round of the playoffs:
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (vs BAL): Through 17 games this season, Gronkowski has nearly twice as many touchdowns (21 counting his "rushing" score) than the Ravens have allowed passing touchdowns (11). Counting last week, Gronkowski has 100 receptions for 1,472 yards and 20 touchdowns (plus one "carry" for two yards and a touchdown) this season.
2. Vernon Davis, 49ers (vs NYG): Davis is averaging seven receptions, 180 yards and two touchdowns in the postseason for his career. Granted, he's only played one postseason game, but it was a helluva performance last week.
3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots (vs BAL): In his past four games, Hernandez has 24 receptions for 358 yards and three touchdowns. Perhaps more impressive is his rushing stats during that span: nine carries for 104 yards. (As a comparison, Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has 77 rushing yards during that span.)
4. Jake Ballard, Giants (at SF): In the postseason, Ballard has been nearly invisible with 16 and 17 yards, respectively, over the past two weeks. That said, Ballard had 38 receptions for 604 yards and four touchdowns in the regular season.
5. Ed Dickson, Ravens (at NE): In his past eight games, Dickson has had less than 50 receiving yards every week and less than 25 yards in six of those games.
6. Dennis Pitta, Ravens (at NE): Pitta has been slightly more productive than Dickson recently. During that same span, Pitta has had at least (but not much more than) 25 yards in five of eight games and he scored three touchdowns from Weeks 12 to 17 of the regular season.
7. Travis Beckum, Giants (at SF): Neither Ballard or Beckum have been particularly productive this postseason. Both tight ends have three receptions and Ballard has a few more yards (33) than Beckum (29).
Alabama junior cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick declared himself eligible for April's NFL Draft and is projected by many to be a top-10 pick.
Most draft analysts project Kirkpatrick to be the second cornerback selected in the draft after LSU's Morris Claiborne, the Jim Thorpe award recipient this year.
Kirkpatrick didn't help his draft stock any today, however, as he was arrested early Tuesday morning on a marijuana possession charge. He was released this morning on $120 bond and his court date is set for February 21st.
With the NFL Scouting Combine next month (Feb. 22-28), it makes no sense why Kirkpatrick would allow himself to end up in this situation.
Over the weekend, we updated our 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database and, as expected, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is still the consensus No. 1 overall pick.
Assuming Luck goes to Indianapolis at No. 1, there is less clarity about who the Rams will take with the second overall pick.
Or will they trade the pick away to a quarterback-needy team like Washington?
Assuming the Rams don't trade the pick, then they will likely select USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil, who is the brother of Panthers center Ryan Kalil, or Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who is the back-to-back Biletnikoff winner.
Who will be the second overall pick? Will the Rams trade the pick? Is Luck a lock as the first overall pick?
As usual, this NFL season has gone by way too fast. In seven days, there will be only two teams left, who will play in the year's final game: Super Bowl XVLI in Indianapolis.
[Related: Take our poll on which two teams will appear in the Super Bowl.]
At some point after the conference championship games, you will know someone that has set up an office pool (Super Bowl squares).
Of course, you won't have any idea what your numbers will be when you select your square(s). You won't find out until after all 100 squares have been filled.
For those unfamiliar with how the process works, the numbers are based on the final score for each team at the end of each quarter or the game. So, in other words, a score of 3, 13, 23, etc. would count as a 3 for the pool.
When you find out your numbers, you will immediately have a sense of whether your numbers are good or bad. For example, you know that 7 and 3 is good. You know that 5 and 2 is not.
Before Super Bowl XLV, those were the exact numbers that I got (5 and 2).
Ugh!
Although I knew my odds were slim, I wasn't sure exactly how slim. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to run through all of the past Super Bowl boxscores to see which numbers have come up the most and least often.
With 45 Super Bowls in the books and four quarters per game, that means there have been 180 quarters and a total of 360 scores (180 quarters times two teams).
The most common number overall is 0 and especially so in the first quarter. Although its occurrence declines each quarter from the first to fourth, the number 0 has come up 99 times out of 360 possible outcomes (or 27.5 percent). In the first quarter, it has come up nearly half the time (42 of 90) but only 13.3 percent of the time in the fourth quarter (12 of 90).
The least common number overall is a three-way tie between 2, 5 and 8, all of which have occurred nine times out of 360 (or 2.5 percent of the time). Of those three, the least common in the fourth quarter (final score) is the number 8, which has occurred three times (out of 90) as a final score.
Here are the most common by quarter (number of occurrences out of 90 in parenthesis):
- 1st quarter: 0 (42 times)
- 2nd quarter (halftime): 0 (27)
- 3rd quarter: 7 (21)
- 4th quarter (final): 7 (18)
Here are the least common by quarter (number of occurrences out of 90 in parenthesis):
- 1st quarter: 1, 2, 5, 8 and 9 (tied with 0 times)
- 2nd quarter (halftime): 5 (1)
- 3rd quarter: 2, 5 and 8 (tied with 3)
- 4th quarter (score): 8 (3)
To see all the results per number by quarter, click here.
Before suffering a season-ending injury, Bills running back Fred Jackson had nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage (934 rushing yards and 442 receiving yards) through 10 games.
In the six games after Jackson fractured his fibula, teammate C.J. Spiller, the team's first-round pick in 2010, posted 633 yards from scrimmage (446 rushing yards and 187 receiving yards).
To put it another way, either running back would thrive if they were the guy. But how will the Bills split the workload in 2012 when both backs are healthy?
“I wouldn’t call it 50-50, but it’s closer to 50-50 than it ever has been because (Spiller’s) more confident and we have more confidence in him having experience now,” said [coach Chan] Gailey, per Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com. “To me it’s a win-win for everybody except them individually. It’s a win-win for the team. It’s a win-win for setting up game plans and for us making it through the season healthy. It’s not a win-win for each of them individually because neither one of them will get the ball as much as they want to.”
Or as much as their respective fantasy owners will want.
For many (not me though), the Packers, who won a league-high 15 games, were their Super Bowl XLVI pick. However, the Saints, my pick to win it all, were also eliminated this weekend.
As Bob McGinn from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes, it's not that uncommon in recent history for the No. 1 seed in the NFC to lose their first game of the postseason.
Four of the past five top seeds in the NFC have lost their first playoff game: Dallas (2007), NY Giants (2008), Atlanta (2010) and now Green Bay (2011).
That means the NFC Championship Game will feature the 49ers and the Giants, who needed to win the final regular-season game to make the postseason. The 49ers defense is legitimate, we all knew that, but their offense looked good this weekend.
In the AFC, the Patriots got their first playoff win since losing to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII and will host the Ravens, who will need more from their offense to keep up with the Patriots. Then again, they face a defense that is nowhere near as tough as they just faced.
Our picks for both Championship Games will be posted by Thursday, but the early lines in these two games (via SportsBook.com) shows the home teams as favorites: Patriots (-7.5) and 49ers (-2.5).
Here are the odds to win Super Bowl XLVI: Patriots (-110), 49ers and Giants (both +350) and Ravens (+600).
If I could meet any 10 people in sports, the list would be as follows (not necessarily in order):
Muhammad Ali
Muhammad Ali is perhaps the greatest pound-for-pound boxer of all time. The heavyweight champ fought in some of the greatest matches of all time, including his bouts with a seemingly invincible Sonny Liston, against whom he first won the title, the famous rope-a-dope match against George Foreman, in which Ali famously allowed Foreman to punch himself into exhaustion before unleashing on him and handing him the first loss of his career, and three epic matches with his biggest rival, Smokin' Joe Frazier, culminating in the Thrilla in Manilla. Ali famously called this match the "closest thing to death" he ever experienced. Ali was the heavyweight champ at a time when boxing was king. In addition, he was a religious and political icon. He was a freak athlete, a poet, a showman, and an ambassador of peace all rolled into one. Muhammad Ali is certainly one of the most interesting figures in sports history, and tops my list of athletes I'd like to meet.
Mark Cuban
There are a lot of great characters in the world of sports, but few more interesting and entertaining than Mark Cuban. Cuban started a software company, Microsolutions, which made him a millionaire by the age of 32 when he sold it. A few years later, he started Broadcast.com, and during the dot com boom, he sold it to Yahoo! for 5.9 billion. I could go on and on about the different successful business ventures Cuban has had, but one of his most interesting acquisitions was his purchase of the Dallas Mavericks in 2000. The Mavs were the laughing stock of the league when Cuban took over, but over time, they became a perennial playoff contender, and this past year, defeated Lebron James and the hated Miami Heat, to capture the NBA championship. Cuban is an outspoken owner who rarely keeps his opinions to himself. He has racked up at least $1,665,000 in fines during his tenure as owner of the Mavericks. He has also shown interest in buying a baseball team, actively bidding on the Texas Rangers, and at one point or another showed interest in both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. He has recently been mentioned as considering purchasing the Los Angeles Dodgers if the price is right. In the entertainment field, Cuban has also made several guest appearances on ABC's entrepreneurial television hit series Shark Tank, in which he competes with other entrepreneurs to buy the rights to various ideas people bring forward to them. Cuban is an unconventional billionaire, and his candid nature and ability to have fun no matter what he is doing, has made him a fan favorite. It would be quite the experience to grab a cup of coffee with Mark Cuban.
Bobby Knight
Bobby Knight had been the all time winningest coach in men's college basketball history until very recently, when his former player, Mike Krzyzewski, surpassed him. He is best known for his time as a coach with the Indiana Hoosiers, but Knight has been in the spotlight for over 40 years, between his time coaching at Indiana and more recently Texas Tech, and his time as an analyst for ESPN. Many remember Knight for his temper, with the image of him throwing a chair across the court during a game burned in our minds. Still, other images of his basketball know-how and colorful commentary as an analyst create a fascinating dichotomy that leaves you wondering about the real Bobby Knight. His genius and high expectations of both himself and his players are what ultimately led to his controversial nature. I'd love to sit down with Coach Knight and find out about his philosophy on life; if he has any regrets, or if he feels that the pursuit of perfection demands the intensity which he brought to the game during his career as a coach. No doubt, Bobby Knight makes my list of most fascinating figures in sports.
Charles Barkley (The Round Mound of Rebound - best nickname ever)
Sir Charles was one of the all time great power forwards in NBA history. Barkley was unfortunate enough to play at the same time as Michael Jordan, and as a result, he never won a championship. He did, however, accomplish a great deal over his career, with dominant individual statistics, one trip to the NBA Finals, a league MVP, and two Olympic Gold medals as a member of the Dream Team in 1992 and 1996. Barkley was one of basketball's original bad boys, and was quite the controversial figure during his playing career. Most notably, he delivered a public message that athletes should not be considered role models. This sparked a public debate and found its place in the culture of society. This past year, Lebron James made a Nike commercial in which he referenced Barkley's "I am not a role model" statement, indicating the longevity of Charles's comments extending to future generations. Barkley is also known for being a compulsive gambler, revealing in an ESPN interview that he had approximately 10 million dollars in lifetime losses. Barkley has written books, with titles such as I May Be Wrong but I Doubt It, entertained the idea of running for political office, is a frequent guest star on ESPN's PTI program, and is a successful basketball analyst for the Emmy Award winning Inside the NBA on TNT. One need not watch more than one episode to understand the allure and attraction of Sir Charles. He is fun loving, outspoken, and wildly entertaining. Barkley is currently being paid to lose weight as a Weight Watchers spokesman. Over the years, he has become one of the most beloved figures in sports, and a conversation with Sir Charles would likely be one of the most interesting of your life.
Tim Tebow
It's certainly possible that ten years from now, the name Tim Tebow will be all but forgotten, as the jury is still out on whether he can really make it as a quarterback in the NFL. However, his performance against the Steelers in the wild card round of the playoffs broke a record on twitter for number of tweets per minute, a record formally held by Beyoncé, when she announced her pregnancy. From entertainers like Lady Gaga to star athletes like Kobe Bryant, it seems everybody is talking about Tim Tebow.
Tebow had one of the greatest college careers of all time, becoming the first sophomore ever to win the Heisman Trophy (see past winners), and leading the Florida Gators to two National Championships. When it was time to go pro, there was a lot of discussion about if Tebow could make it in the NFL, and if he could, whether or not he could do so as a quarterback. Many believed, and perhaps still believe, he would be best suited as a fullback. When the Broncos took a chance on him with a first-round pick (a decision made by head coach Josh McDaniels, who was later fired), the pressure on Tebow to live up to being a first-round pick began. After only limited playing time in his first season, the Broncos got off to a poor start to the 2011 season and mounting pressure to give Tebow a chance gave him an opportunity. He took advantage, going 6-1 in his first seven starts, including a five-game winning streak, before losing the final three games of the regular season. Just when it seemed like things were starting to cool for him, Tebow had perhaps his best game in the NFL in the biggest moment of his young career. He passed for 316 yards with 2 TDs, and added another 50 yards rushing and a TD against the league's top-ranked defense. Tebow-mania is so rampant right now that the word "tebowing" actually became an official word in the dictionary, referencing the act of prayer tebow goes into at times on the field and after games. Whether he will be a phenomenon with staying power or this is merely his 15 minutes of fame, Tebow is certainly quite an interesting character, and one I'd certainly like to have a beer with, if either of us drank beer.
Derek Jeter
This one's a no brainer. Even if you're a Yankee-hater, you have to respect Jeter. Along with a few other athletes like Joe Montana and Tom Brady, Jeter is just a winner. In 1996, he was officially called up to be the starting shortstop for perhaps the greatest franchise in sports history. Some might be overwhelmed by the pressure of New York; Jeter thrived on it. In addition to winning Rookie of the Year in '96 (see past winners), he went on to help lead the Yankees to their first World Series title in 18 years, in an epic six-game series against the Atlanta Braves. He went on to help lead the Yankees to three more titles in the next four years, including three in a row, culminating in a World Series MVP in 2000 in the Subway Series against the Mets. Under Jeter, the Yankees have made the playoffs every year, except in 2008, including a run of thirteen postseason appearances in a row. They have also reached the World Series seven times and have won five rings. Jeter's late-season heroics have earned him the nickname "Mr November" and he became Captain of the team in 2003. This past season, Jeter became the 28th member of the 3,000 hit club, doing it in perfect Derek Jeter fashion with an astonishing five-hit game, while also becoming only the second player in history to have his 3,000th hit be a home run. His achievements on the diamond are incredible, and yet for all of his accomplishments, I have not even scratched the surface as to why he would definitely make my top 10 list of athletes to hang out with.
Jeter's personal life is the envy of men everywhere. When he first arrived on the scene, his relationship with Mariah Carey was the talk of the city. Since then, he has dated six women named in the top ten of the Maxim hot 100, including a former Miss Universe and actresses Jessica Biel and Minka Kelly. He has made over 220 million in career earnings (Baseball-Reference.com) behind only his teammate, Alex Rodriguez. Money, fame, beautiful women, and he's a 17-year veteran shortstop for the New York Yankees. Who wouldn't wanna hang out with this guy?
Brett Favre
Before the days of the "discount double-check," there was a guy named Brett Favre in Green Bay. There was so much drama surrounding the end of his career, that for a while there, just the mention of his name became irritating. Will he retire or won't he? Still, as time passes, Favre will surely be remembered for his record-breaking achievements on the field, as well as his boyish love of the game throughout his career.
Favre got his first chance to play in 1992, when Don "Magic Man" Majkowski (what a name right?) went down. He led the Packers to a come-from-behind victory, throwing the game-winning touchdown pass with 1:07 left, the first of many comebacks in his career, and the rest is history. He went on to break several passing records, including most career touchdown passes, most career passing yards, and most victories as a starting quarterback. Favre is also, along with Peyton Manning, the sports only three time league MVP (see past winners), although Favre won his consecutively ('95-'97). He made five NFC Championship games and two Super Bowls, with one Super Bowl win. To go along with his incredible numbers, Favre is best known for his toughness and his consecutive starts streak, which reached 297 games before it finally came to an end after injuring his shoulder while playing with the Vikings.
What really made Favre special was his perseverance and the way he overcame adversity in his personal life. When his wife, Deanna, was diagnosed with breast cancer, Favre shaved his head to show his support. Seeing the loving and supportive side of a guy who runs across the field to jump into the arms of his receiver after throwing a touchdown pass only made him more endearing. And who could forget his performance on Monday Night Football just one day after the passing of his father. Favre decided to play, dedicating the game to his late father. His performance that game against the Raiders was legendary, throwing for four touchdowns in the first half, in what would be a 41-7 Green Bay victory over the Oakland Raiders. Favre's passer rating was 154.9 for that game, just 3.4 points shy of a perfect game by the traditional rating system, and was the highest rated game of his career. For the duration of his career, Favre was the quintessential football player. He was a leader who's toughness was never questioned, and he went out there every game and had fun. He played the game the way it was meant to be played. I'd certainly like to throw on a pair of Wrangler jeans and toss the football around with Favre.
[Editor's note: Did you really just write that? "Throw on a pair of Wrangler jeans ..."? Is that before or after you get your pedicure with Sir Charles?]
Dick Vitale
Dick Vitale is the guy that every college basketball fan knows. What makes Vitale such a desirable person to meet is less about his personal achievements with the sport and more about his energy, enthusiasm, and what he has done for the promotion and growth of college basketball.
Vitale began coaching on the collegiate level in 1971 as an assistant coach for Rutgers University. He also had a short stint in the NBA, coaching for the Pistons for the 78-79 season. It wasn't until his career in broadcasting that his popularity really took off. What sports fan hasn't heard Dicky V's popular catch phrases "He's a PTPer" (Prime Time Player), "Diaper Dandy" (referring to an outstanding freshman), and "It's Awesome, baby, with a capital A!" Vitale routinely broadcasts big college games, and is also a frequent guest on the morning radio show Mike and Mike in the Morning with Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic. He always has something to say about the March Madness tournament selections, and has long been an advocate for the "little guy," passionately arguing in favor of good teams from smaller conferences over mediocre teams from big conferences. Vitale also spends time raising awareness for cancer research since the passing of his good friend, the late Jim Valvano. The Jimmy V Foundation is supported by ESPN and Vitale is one of the biggest spokesmen, volunteering his time and efforts to raise money for the cause. For his passion, his love of the game, and a lifetime of experience in basketball, Dicky V makes my list of top 10 sports figures I'd like to meet.
Tiger Woods
Love him or hate him, Tiger Woods brings a popularity to the sport of golf not seen prior to his arrival on the scene, and not likely to be seen after. His greatness as a golfer can not be understated and his sustained period of dominance brought more than just the casual fan to their TV sets to watch any tournament in which he was playing. His 2001 victory at the Master's completed what has become known as the "Tiger Slam," where Tiger held all four major championship titles at the same time. He was never able to win a true Grand Slam, which would be the same achievement except in the same calendar year, but no individual has come closer than he has, holding three of them. With 14 career Major victories, it was a foregone conclusion that Woods would break the record of 18 held by Jack Nicklaus. Then, in November of 2009, Tiger's marriage began to fall apart as reports of extramarital affairs emerged. His image, as well as his career, took a major hit, and Woods lost his number 1 ranking, which he held for a record 281 consecutive weeks. With all of the publicized drama in his life, Tiger claims to have returned to his Buddhist roots, and appears to be trying to make amends for mistakes of his past. I, for one, respect the way he has since conducted himself, and I look forward to seeing if he can get his Tiger mojo back, and once again challenge Nicklaus's record. Tiger has had a very interesting, albeit tumultuous, life in the public eye, and I'd certainly like a glimpse behind the curtain; to get to know the real Tiger.
Barry Sanders
I grew up as a Giants fan, but my favorite player of all-time and the guy responsible for my becoming a fan of the NFL was Barry Sanders. Sanders had one of the most accomplished collegiate careers in history, setting 34 NCAA records and setting the single-season rushing record with 2,628 rushing yards in 1988. In 1989, he was selected 3rd overall by the Detroit Lions (see team draft history) and went on to win Rookie of the Year honors with 1,470 yards rushing. Sanders rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his 10 seasons, winning four rushing titles and a league MVP award in 1997, a year in which he had 2,053 yards from scrimmage. Had Barry not decided to retire at the age of 30, coming off a season in which he rushed for 1,491 yards, he was a virtual lock to surpass Walter Payton as the NFL's all-time leading rusher. He would have also been likely to keep Emmitt Smith (who eventually passed Payton) from catching him, barring injury, so long as he played as many seasons as Emmitt. His numbers are incredible, and had it been a goal of his, he probably could have ran away with a great number of NFL records. I believe he had the potential to hold as many rushing records as Jerry Rice holds for receiving, and Rice is universally regarded as the greatest WR, and often, greatest NFL player of all time. Sanders was a pretty humble guy, though, and decided he wanted a life after football. Not wanting to risk serious injury and further abuse to his body were major reasons for his decision. He also avoided continuing to play during what would have inevitably been the downside of his career, choosing instead to "go out on top" if you will, an admirable decision. More than all of this, though, Sanders was mesmerizing to watch. His footwork and ability to make defenders look foolish was second to none. At any given moment, he had the ability to make some jaw-dropping juke move that left you wondering in amazement how he just did that. You just knew there was an exciting potential for a big play every time Detroit had the ball. An inspiration both on and off the field, Barry Sanders was a childhood role model for me, and while he may not be as flashy or controversial as some of the other interesting sports figures on the list, he absolutely makes my list of athletes I'd like to hang out with.
Texans running back Arian Foster faced two top rush defenses in his first two career postseason games: Cincinnati (10th against the run) last week and Baltimore (second) this week.
Not only did Foster rush for 100-plus yards in both games, but he broke the previous record (278 yards) set by Duane Thomas in 1970 for the most rushing yards in a player's first two playoff games.
In his two postseason games, Foster rushed for a combined 285 yards and three touchdowns on 51 carries and had eight receptions for 51 yards as well.
Foster missed three regular-season games (two due to injury plus Week 17 for rest), but he finished the season with nine 100-yard rushing games counting the playoffs and three 100-yard receiving games. Teammate Ben Tate had three 100-yard rushing games this season as well.
That said, I'm sure that Foster would trade the yardage to keep playing this postseason.
Four of the top five wide receivers in my fantasy football rankings for the divisional round will play on Sunday afternoon when the Packers host the Giants at Lambeau Field.
Hakeem Nicks, Giants (at GB): Nicks had his best game of the season in terms of fantasy points last week. He ended up with six receptions for 115 yards and two touchdowns or 23 fantasy points. The only other game this season in which he scored multiple touchdowns was his first matchup against the Packers.
Victor Cruz, Giants (at GB): Cruz has had plenty of big games this season, but last week was not one of them. After finishing with 342 yards and two touchdowns in the final two regular-season games, Cruz had only two receptions for 28 yards last week.
Jordy Nelson, Packers (vs NYG): Nelson led the team in receptions (68), yards (1,263) and touchdowns (15) this season. In his final two games of the season, Nelson had 15 receptions for 277 yards and five touchdowns.
Greg Jennings, Packers (vs NYG): A knee injury has kept Jennings out of the lineup since Week 14, but he is expected to return this week against the Giants. In his first matchup against the Giants, Jennings finished with seven receptions for 94 yards and a score. For the season (13 games), Jennings had 67 receptions for 949 yards and nine touchdowns.
Which one of these four receivers will have the most fantasy points on Sunday?
After Saints tight end Jimmy Graham caught the go-ahead touchdown in the final two minutes of today's game, 49ers tight end Vernon Davis caught the game-winning score in the final seconds of the game.
It was the second touchdown of the game for each tight end.
Between Graham, Davis and Patriots tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, they posted ridiculous combined stats -- 26 receptions for 483 yards and eight touchdowns.
Of those four tight ends, Hernandez was the only one to finish with only one touchdown, but he also led the Patriots in rushing with five carries for 61 yards. BenJarvus Green-Ellis finished second on the team with 28 yards on 13 carries.
The other three tight ends all finished with 100-plus yards and two-plus scores: Gronkowski (10 receptions for 145 yards and three touchdowns), Davis (7-180-2) and Graham (5-103-2).
This season, Saints running back Darren Sproles set a career high in rushing yards (603), however, the sixth-year back is more valuable in the passing game.
Sproles set career highs in receptions (86), receiving yards (710) and receiving touchdowns (seven) this season while also breaking the NFL record for all-purpose yards (2,696).
In today's loss to the 49ers, Sproles set the NFL record for most receptions (15) in a playoff game and finished with 119 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Before today's game, the record was 13 held by four players: Chad Morton, Shannon Sharpe, Thurman Thomas and Kellen Winslow Sr.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees has now thrown for 460-plus yards in back-to-back games this postseason.
That said, Brees would certainly trade that streak for the ability to extend his games played streak this postseason to three.
After throwing for 466 yards last week, Brees threw for 462 yards on 40-of-63 passing in today's loss to the 49ers.
Only Cleveland's Bernie Kosar threw for more yards (489) in an NFL postseason game than Brees. In other words, Brees now has thrown for the second- and third-most yards in playoff games in NFL history.
Brees ended his streak of postseason passes without an interception at 226 attempts as he threw four touchdowns and two interceptions today.
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has thrown a postseason-record five touchdowns in the first half against the Broncos.
Brady has completed 18 of 25 pass attempts for 246 yards, five touchdowns and one interception in the first half.
Three of the touchdowns were to Rob Gronkowski, who led the NFL during the regular season with 17 receiving touchdowns and set the single-season record for tight ends. Receivers Wes Welker and Deion Branch have caught the other two touchdowns.
Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow has completed three of 10 pass attempts for 28 yards.
Barring a miracle, the Patriots, who are up by 28 points, will get their first postseason win since losing Super Bowl XLII.
Not only is it a three-day weekend for many of us, this is my favorite football weekend of the season.
With the eight best teams still alive, in theory, it is the final week of the season with four NFL games. In addition, it's the final week with games on more than one day.
One of the games this weekend features one of the all-time great quarterbacks in New England's Tom Brady against Denver's Tim Tebow, who ESPN declared as America's "most popular" athlete and is one of the most polarizing players in the league.
Take our poll on how many passing yards Tebow will have this week.
This week's Fantasy Football Friday roundtable question:
Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 among QBs in fantasy points in 2012?
John (see archives): When I first read this question, my immediate instinct was no way. But when I looked a little deeper at it, it's actually a lot closer than I initially thought. Tebow had a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, so he has limited his mistakes this past season. In addition, he added almost 50 rushing yards per game and scored six touchdowns on the ground. If Tebow does play a full season next year, it's more than reasonable to think he could crack even the top 10 fantasy QBs. His rampant popularity may be enough to allow him this opportunity, even if he does have a few sluggish games next year. For now, it certainly does seem like his job to lose. Still, I'm going to say Tebow will not be a top 12 fantasy QB next year. While he certainly has big fantasy point potential, I believe he will have at least a few real bust games, which will lower his overall production. I expect teams to start to figure him out a bit, and as the magic starts to wear off, his fantasy numbers may regress. He made some big plays this past weekend against the Steelers, but I'm not sure Tebow is a good enough quarterback to continue to take chances and not turn the ball over. And if he starts having two and three interception games, that's going to start to eat into the points gained from his rushing production. Overall, I'd say Tebow is still too much of a gamble to make your starting fantasy QB, but he's certainly worth a roster spot, as he does have a lot of potential to prove people like myself wrong.
Sean (visit his site): This may be the easiest question of the offseason. There is no way Tim Tebow will finish in the top 12 in fantasy points next year among QBs. Tebow will never be a QB who throws for 3,500 yards and 20-plus TDs. Tebow is going to need to put up rushing touchdowns like Cam Newton did this year to crack the top 12, and that isn't happening. If Tebow is named starter next year, and that is a big IF, I don't think he will play a full 16 games. I believe this game this week versus the Patriots will lay the blue print down forever on how to stop the Tebow-led Broncos. I see Tebow starting next year, and lasting about 6-7 games before being yanked for good.
Dan (follow on Twitter): I certainly think that Tim Tebow will finish next year in the top 12 of quarterbacks for fantasy points overall. Tebow averaged 123 yards passing on the year, and 47 yards rushing the ball and 18 touchdowns in 11 starts, which in standard scoring would be good enough for about 15 points per game. Tebow will certainly benefit from a full offseason as the established first-string QB, and an offense that will be even more tailored to his ability. Tebow is also definitely in the company of the guys that statistically hang out in the 12-16 range, as they are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. I think Tebow can certainly put up more total yards than those guys.
Steve (see archives): Before getting to the numbers, I can't envision a sitution (aside from injury) in which Tebow does not come back as the starter next year for Denver. He's currently backed up by Brady Quinn - who couldn't even win the starting job in Cleveland - so there's no real threat on the roster, which means they would need to acquire one via draft, trade or free agency. The price will seem unreseasonably high for the Broncos to trade for Manning or go up the draft board for Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. Some other food for thought on the topic: How long did John Fox stick with Jake Delhomme in Carolina? As for the numbers, extrapolating out Tebow's performance to a full season would put hiim around 300 points, good enough for 10th best at QB. That's right at the cut-off, especially given injury to otherwise likely starters Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, and Matt Cassel. If you're comparing Tebow to the 10-15 range of QBs, would you bank on more points out of Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton grouping, or Tebow. I think with the young receivers (sleeper alert: Titus Young), and the differential for running vs passing TDs (generally 6 vs. 4 points), the upside on Tebow is better and I'm confident he'll be top 12 in QB Fantasy points.
Brendan (follow on Twitter): Tim Tebow will not be in the top 12 fantasy QBs in 2012. While I do feel Tebow will finish the year as the starter in Denver - he will not have progressed enough in the passing game to crack the top 12. Looking back on his 11 regular season starts in 2011 - he only threw for 12 touchdowns and only topped the 200 yard mark twice. Now that teams will have an entire offseason to review and prepare for Tebow I think he and coach John Fox will have to be even more creative in 2012 for him to succeed. I expect the top 12 fantasy QBs in 2012 to be: Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Newton, Eli Manning, Vick, Stafford, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Schaub. Notice I said Eli Manning and didn't even mention his brother, who if healthy could not only be in the top 12 but possibly the top 5 next year. I really don't see Tebow finishing ahead of any of those names.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): From Week 5, when he replaced Kyle Orton mid-game, to Week 16, the championship week in most leagues, Tebow finished with 12-plus fantasy points every week. It was never pretty, but it was remarkably consistent. Since then, he has had his worst and best performance (minus one point in Week 17 but a season-high 31 points against Pittsburgh in the playoffs). Since Week 5, Tebow ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing yards (661), which is the most among quarterbacks. Carolina's Cam Newton was 26th during that span with 573 rushing yards. During that same span, however, Tebow ranked 27th in passing yards (1,730). In fact, Tebow has thrown for more than 200 yards in only three of his 12 starts (counting last week's 316-yard performance). While I think he finishes just outside of the top 12 in fantasy points among quarterbacks, I think it is relatively close.
Divisional-Round Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs
Three of the four matchups in this weekend's divisional round of NFL playoffs are rematches from the regular season.
In the one game that is not a rematch (New Orleans at San Francisco), it features two teams that are polar opposites. Perhaps surprisingly, the Saints were the better run offense this season -- 132.9 yards per game (YPG) for New Orleans and 127.8 YPG for San Francisco.
While the Saints ranked first in total offense (467.1 YPG) and second in scoring offense (34.2 points per game), the 49ers ranked fourth in total defense (308.2 YPG) and second in scoring defense (14.3 PPG).
Here are our quarterback rankings for the divisional round:
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (vs NYG): With Matt Flynn starting in Week 17 and the Packers having a first-round bye, Rodgers has not played since Christmas night. Rodgers, who set the single-season record for passer rating (122.5), had a passer rating of 100-plus in 13 of 15 games. He finished the season with a franchise-record 45 touchdowns and only threw six interceptions. The Giants had the fourth-worst pass defense this season, but they have played better recently.
2. Drew Brees, Saints (at SF): Not only did Brees break numerous records this season, he has been especially good in the past eight games counting last week's playoff win. During that eight-game span, Brees has thrown for 2,938 yards, which is an average of 367.25 yards per game, and has a 28:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Although Brees has thrown more touchdowns at home (29) than on the road (17) in the regular season, he has actually averaged more passing yards per game (369.8) outdoors than he did in domes this season.
3. Tom Brady, Patriots (vs DEN): Brady has thrown for 300-plus yards in four straight games and seven of his past nine games. Throwing at least one touchdown pass in every game this season, Brady was held to just one passing touchdown in only two games this season and he had two rushing touchdowns in one of those games. In his first matchup against the Broncos, Brady threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score.
4. Eli Manning, Giants (at GB): The Packers have allowed the most passing yards (299.8 per game) in the NFL this season. Although they have allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns (29), they are one of only five teams to have more interceptions (31) than passing touchdowns allowed. Manning fell just short of 5,000 passing yards (4,933) and he threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers the first time around this season.
5. Tim Tebow, Broncos (at NE): When it mattered the most, Tebow threw for a career-high 316 yards last week as he led the Broncos to an "upset" win over the Steelers. While he completed less than 50 percent of his passes (10-for-21), Tebow finished with 31 fantasy points, which was the most (by far) that the Steelers allowed all season. That said, it was only the third time in 12 starts this season that Tebow finished with more than 200 passing yards. (Take our poll on how many passing yards Tebow will have this week.)
6. Alex Smith, 49ers (vs NO): While Smith has played solid football, he has thrown more than 33 passes in only two games this season. Smith has no 300-yard games this year, but he has not thrown an interception since Thanksgiving either. The Saints have allowed eight 300-yard games this season including back-to-back 400-yard games in Weeks 12 and 13, but this game will have gone horribly wrong for the Niners if Smith throws for 400-plus yards.
7. Joe Flacco, Ravens (vs HOU): The Texans and Ravens both rank in the top four in pass defenses as the Texans have allowed only 189.7 yards per game. In their first matchup, however, Flacco threw for 305 yards and he is one of only two quarterbacks to throw for 300-plus yards against the Texans. Brees was the other.
8. T.J. Yates, Texans (at BAL): The Ravens allowed a league-low 11 passing touchdowns this season and have one of only five defenses to intercept more passes (15) than they have allowed passing touchdowns. The first time this season that these two teams met, Yates did not play but Matt Schaub had a mediocre performance: 220 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. The Ravens have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for more than one touchdown in any game this season.
Of the 15 NFL running backs that rushed for 1,000-plus yards this season, only four of them will be playing this weekend.
Three of them play in the AFC: Baltimore's Ray Rice, Houston's Arian Foster and Denver's Willis McGahee. The other is San Francisco's Frank Gore.
Coincidentally (or not so coincidentally), they all play for the four teams that have the worst passing offenses of the remaining eight teams.
In other words, the quarterbacks of the teams with the 1,000-yard rushers are Joe Flacco, T.J. Yates, Tim Tebow and Alex Smith. The other four quarterbacks are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning.
Here are our running back rankings for the divisional round:
1. Ray Rice, Ravens (vs HOU): Rice led the NFL in yards from scrimmage this season (2,068). In his first matchup against the Texans, Rice had 23 carries for 101 yards plus five receptions for 60 yards.
2. Arian Foster, Texans (at BAL): No running back has more yards from scrimmage over the past two seasons than Foster (4,061). Although Foster was inactive in Week 17, he has three consecutive games with 100-plus rushing yards and a touchdown. During that three-game span, Foster has 63 carries for 420 yards and four touchdowns plus 11 receptions for 103 yards. That said, Foster had only 49 rushing yards in his first matchup against the Ravens.
[Related: Take our poll on which RB will have more yards from scrimmage this weekend: Foster or Rice?]
3. Frank Gore, 49ers (vs NO): Gore stayed healthy enough to play in 16 games for only the second time in his career. He finished with 282 carries for 1,211 and eight touchdowns, all of which are the second-highest totals of his career. But he also finished with a career-low 114 receiving yards.
4. Darren Sproles, Saints (at SF): In the regular season, Sproles had one less reception (86) than he had carries (87). It's unlikely that Sproles gets even one rushing touchdown against the 49ers after having two of them last week against the Lions, but he had a receiving touchdown in each of the final three regular-season games of the year.
5. Willis McGahee, Broncos (at NE): McGahee had his third-highest yardage total (1,199 rushing yards) of his career, but he actually set a career low in rushing touchdowns (four) this season.
6. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (at GB): Bradshaw had a decent game last week (85 yards from scrimmage but no touchdowns). In the final three regular-season games of the year, Bradshaw scored a total of five touchdowns -- four rushing and one receiving.
7. Brandon Jacobs, Giants (at GB): It's anyone's guess what you'll get from Jacobs in any given week. After three straight games with 42 yards or less, Jacobs ran with power and racked up 92 rushing yards on 14 carries and another eight yards on two receptions last week.
8. Pierre Thomas, Saints (at SF): Last week, Thomas had eight carries for 66 yards and a touchdown plus six receptions for 55 yards. Thomas has yet to have more than 10 carries in any game this season, but he has had at least three receptions in 11 games.
9. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots (vs DEN): The good news: Green-Ellis has scored six touchdowns in his past six games. The bad news: The Law Firm has less than 25 rushing yards in five consecutive games.
10. James Starks, Packers (vs NYG): Starks has only played in one game since his first matchup against the Giants on Dec. 4th, but he has practiced fully this week and is expected to play Sunday.
11. Ben Tate, Texans (at BAL): Tate averaged 62.8 rushing yards per game and finished with 942 yards this season in 15 games. Had he played all 16 games and rushed for his average in the game he missed, the Texans would have had two 1,000-yard rushers.
12. Ryan Grant, Packers (vs NYG): Grant has over 400 yards from scrimmage (243 rushing and 162 receiving) in his past four games. It's hard to imagine Grant being anywhere near as productive with Starks expected back this week.
13. Christopher Ivory, Saints (at SF): While Ivory will likely lead the Saints in carries, the 49ers have allowed a league-low 77.3 rushing yards per game and three rushing touchdowns all season. (That said, they did not allow a rushing touchdown until Week 16.)
14. Kendall Hunter, 49ers (vs NO): In his past two games, Hunter has 28 carries for 149 yards and three receptions for 22 yards. That said, there's little chance (barring injuries) that Hunter gets more work than Gore this week. I expect Hunter to get around 8-10 carries for 40-50 yards.
In the history of the NFL, a player has finished the season with 110-plus receptions 25 times and 120-plus receptions seven times.
Patriots receiver Wes Welker has two of the 120-reception seasons and four of the 110-reception seasons all during his five years in New England.
The one exception was his 86 receptions in 2010, which was the immediate full season after he tore his ACL.
As you would imagine, Welker leads the NFL in receptions (554) over the past five years. In other words, he's averaging more than 110 receptions during that span.
The next four players with the most receptions over the past five years are: Brandon Marshall (474), Reggie Wayne (472), Roddy White (471) and Larry Fitzgerald (463).
Here are our wide receiver rankings for the divisional round:
1. Wes Welker, Patriots (vs DEN): Welker set career highs in yards (1,569) and touchdowns (nine) and was only one reception shy of his career high (123) set in 2009. That said, Welker had one of his worst performances (four receptions for 41 yards) of the season against the Broncos a few weeks ago.
2. Hakeem Nicks, Giants (at GB): Nicks had his best game of the season in terms of fantasy points last week. He ended up with six receptions for 115 yards and two touchdowns or 23 fantasy points. The only other game this season in which he scored multiple touchdowns was his first matchup against the Packers.
3. Jordy Nelson, Packers (vs NYG): Nelson led the team in receptions (68), yards (1,263) and touchdowns (15) this season. In his final two games of the season, Nelson had 15 receptions for 277 yards and five touchdowns.
4. Victor Cruz, Giants (at GB): Cruz has had plenty of big games this season, but last week was not one of them. After finishing with 342 yards and two touchdowns in the final two regular-season games, Cruz had only two receptions for 28 yards last week.
5. Greg Jennings, Packers (vs NYG): A knee injury has kept Jennings out of the lineup since Week 14, but he is expected to return this week against the Giants. In his first matchup against the Giants, Jennings finished with seven receptions for 94 yards and a score. For the season (13 games), Jennings had 67 receptions for 949 yards and nine touchdowns.
6. Marques Colston, Saints (at SF): Colston did not score a touchdown last week after finishing with five touchdowns in the final four regular-season games. But he finished with seven receptions for 120 yards. In his past five games, Colston has seven-plus receptions and 81-plus yards every week and three 100-yard games.
7. Andre Johnson, Texans (at BAL): One of the league's elite receivers, Johnson has battled hamstring injuries most of the year. It appears that he is fully healthy (or close to it) again as he finished with 90 yards and a touchdown in last week's win over the Bengals.
8. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (at NE): Thomas is coming off a 204-yard performance in which he caught the game-winning 80-yard touchdown in overtime. Thomas has three 100-yard games in December and January including his 116-yard performance against the Patriots in mid-December.
9. Torrey Smith, Ravens (vs HOU): In the nine games played since Week 9, Smith has scored a touchdown and finished with double-digit fantasy points in four of them. In the other five games during that span, Smith has had 23-38 receiving yards and three (or less) fantasy points.
10. Mario Manningham, Giants (at GB): It has been a disappointing and injury-plagued season for Manningham, who missed the first matchup against the Packers. Last week, however, Manningham finished with 68 yards and a score against the Falcons.
11. Michael Crabtree, 49ers (vs NO): Crabtree had his best game of the season in Week 17 against the Rams: eight receptions for 86 yards and two scores. That said, it was only the fourth time this season that Crabtree had double-digit fantasy points.
12. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (vs HOU): Boldin hasn't played since Week 15, but he is expected to return this week. Boldin had one of his two best games of the season when the Ravens and Texans met in mid-October as he finished with eight receptions for 132 yards.
13. Deion Branch, Patriots (vs DEN): Branch has been inconsistent this season after a strong start (15 receptions for 222 yards in his first two games). In the other 13 games he played, Branch had only 36 receptions for 480 yards and five touchdowns.
14. Robert Meachem, Saints (at SF): With so many talented receivers on the Saints' offense, it's hard to trust any of them except Colston. That said, Meachem's 111-yard performance last week was his second 100-yard game in the past six games.
15. James Jones, Packers (vs NYG): Jones has the potential to have a big week in any given week, but he has the potential to have a dud performance as well. Jones has only seven games with more than two receptions this season.
In the history of the NFL, only 30 tight ends have had 1,000-plus receiving yards.
The two that did so this season became the first two to ever finish with 1,300-plus yards: Rob Gronkowski (1,327) and Jimmy Graham (1,310). The previous record for the position was 1,290 yards set by Kellen Winslow in 1980.
Gronkowski set the record for receiving touchdowns (17) by a tight end while Graham had the third-most receptions (99) by a tight end.
Here are our tight end rankings for the divisional round:
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (vs DEN): Not only did Gronkowski set the single-season record for tight ends as noted above, but the second-year tight end led the NFL in receiving touchdowns (17). Over the past two seasons, Gronkowski trails only Calvin Johnson in receiving touchdowns by a margin of 28 to 27.
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints (at SF): Graham had 99 receptions for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. In fact, Graham and Gronkowski were the only two players in the NFL to finish with 90-plus receptions, 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns this season.
[Related: Our poll on who should be drafted first in 2012: Gronkowski or Graham?]
3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots (vs DEN): In his last game against the Broncos, Hernandez had a season-high nine receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown and one rush attempt for 16 yards. In his past three games counting the game in Denver, Hernandez has 20 receptions for 303 yards and two touchdowns plus four carries for 43 yards.
4. Vernon Davis, 49ers (vs NO): In Week 17, Davis had eight receptions for a season-high 118 yards. That said, Davis, who has scored only once in the past six games, had as many touchdowns in 2009 (13) as he has had in the past two seasons combined.
5. Jermichael Finley, Packers (vs NYG): Finley is as talented as any tight end on this list, but his production is less consistent than the guys ahead of him. Finley had only four games with double-digit fantasy points and seven games with less than 40 receiving yards this season.
6. Jake Ballard, Giants (at GB): After missing two (the final regular-season) games, Ballard returned last week and finished with two receptions for 16 yards. Ballard had three catches for 47 yards the first time around against the Packers.
7. Owen Daniels, Texans (at BAL): Despite a "hand issue," Daniels will play according to coach Gary Kubiak, per John McClain of the Houston Chronicle. That said, the Texans tight ends combined for two receptions for 13 yards in their first matchup against the Ravens, who ranked second in the NFL in fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year.
8. Ed Dickson, Ravens (vs HOU): In his first matchup against the Texans, Dickson finished with only two receptions for 20 yards and no touchdowns. The Texans ranked fourth in the league in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season.
9. Dennis Pitta, Ravens (vs HOU): In the final game of the regular season, Pitta finished with six receptions for a season-high 62 yards and a touchdown. Pitta scored all three of his touchdowns in the final six weeks of the season.
10. Joel Dreessen, Texans (at BAL): From Weeks 5 to 14, Dreessen was a scoring machine. Six of his 16 receptions during that span were touchdowns, but he hasn't scored since.
All of the teams with a first-round bye will host their first playoff game of the postseason this weekend, but not all of them are favorites based on lines from Sportsbook.com.
Going on the road, the Saints are four-point favorites over the 49ers.
Five of the EDSFootball.com contributors made our predictions for this weekend's games:
- 49ers-Saints: Three of five have the 49ers winning the game.
- Packers-Giants: Four of five have Green Bay winning the game.
- Ravens-Texans: Four of five have Ravens winning the game.
- Patriots-Broncos: All five of us have the Patriots winning the game.
Three of these four games are rematches from the regular season. The one exception is the Saints-49ers game, which features one of the most explosive offenses (New Orleans) against one of the league's toughest defenses (San Francisco).
Of all the postseason teams, the Saints are the most balanced and are my Super Bowl pick (over the Patriots).
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself are making a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Packers-Giants game:
The Giants are looking to mimic their success from the 2007 season, and they appear to be doing just that. They have played their best football these past three weeks, defeating the Jets, Cowboys, and now the Falcons, all with relative ease. They have been getting pressure on the quarterback with that athletic front four, and the offense has been extremely impressive. Victor Cruz, the team's leading receiver, had just two catches for 28 yards against the Falcons, and New York still went on to score 24 unanswered points to finish the game. In short, the Giants seem to be peaking at the right time. Going into the playoffs, I had picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl. They've been the best team all year, and the inevitable MVP Aaron Rodgers seems determined to put the finishing touches on a virtually perfect season. Once again, though, the Giants have changed my mind. They looked focused and primed to run the gauntlet of NFC powerhouses, and I'm now calling for the upset. When the playoffs began, I made my picks based on the information from the regular season. But combining the season with the new information gained from last week's games, I believe that the Giants will end the Packers season. Let it be known I'm a huge Giants fan, and you can call me a homer if you want. [Editor's note: HOMER.] But in being as unbiased as possible, the Giants are getting better and better each week, and they are ready for the Packers. The first game between these two teams was a narrow 38-35 victory for Green Bay. I expect a little lower-scoring game this time around, with the Giants defense disrupting the Packer offense.
The game of the week is the last game of the weekend. It is the game I am looking forward to most. We have seen the Giants on one of their late-season runs. Eli Manning played great last weekend, and the ground game should be solid this Sunday versus the Packers defense. There is nobody in the league who makes more big plays than Eli Manning, unfortunately with big plays comes mistakes. I think Eli will get picked once or twice in this one and that will be the difference. I think the Packers will struggle in the beginning of the game, mainly due to a little rust, but once Rodgers gets going I think he will pick apart a terrible Giants secondary. The Giants front four is going to have to play the game of their lives to stop Rodgers and the Pack. This game will be lower scoring than most people think. The O/U is set at 52.5. I like this game to be under that mark, and I also think the Giants with the points is a good play. I like the Giants to come out strong, perhaps get a double-digit lead, and then Rodgers and the Pack to come back from behind in the 4th quarter to win it.
The Giants are starting to get the same look as when they went on their Super Bowl run, while the Packers were machine-like this year cranking out an impressive 15-1 record. The Packers and Giants also matched up this year, with the Packers driving down the field with a last-second field goal. The Giants surprised everyone last week by running all over the Falcons with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and will look to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field going against a rush D that allows 4.7 yards per carry. Eli Manning has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year, and was able to rack up 347 yards in the last game against the Packers. Green Bay has been the purveyor of the big play this year as their passing game averaged 308 yards per game, 9.4 yards per pass and 51 touchdowns. As great as the Giants front four have been, the Giants secondary has been week giving up 255 yards per game and 4,000 yards in total. I love the Packers at home going against the weak Giants secondary, Packers 38-27.
Steve: Green Bay Packers 23, New York Giants 17
Can we get this game taken off due to the death of offensive coordinator, Joe Philbins’ son? A tragic situation and my best goes out to all. When they played earlier this season, the Giants played their best game of the year only to fall a little short. For all the struggles the Giants have seen on defense over this season, it’ll be the offense that lets them down this game. Eli Manning has carried the defense, and the running game has been lackluster. Without a running game, the Giants will be unable to control the clock, and subsequently create too many possessions for the Packers. The Giants play another competitive game against the inspired Packers and come up a little short again.
The Giants certainly have plenty of momentum and confidence going into this week's game. In their past three games, all wins, they have not allowed more than 14 points and have won by double-digits. Heading into Lambeau, however, they will face their toughest test of the past four weeks. While the Packers defense has not played nearly as well this year as they did last year, their offense is as good as it gets. Green Bay averaged a league-high 35 points per game and 405.1 yards of offense this season. The Giants have a talented receiving corps, but the Packers' group is as talented and perhaps even deeper with the expected return of Greg Jennings. While Eli Manning has cut down on his mistakes (16 interceptions) from last year (25), I see Manning making a critical late-game mistake against the defense with the most picks this season to seal the win for the Packers.
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the 49ers-Saints game:
John (follow on Twitter): San Francisco 49ers 27, New Orleans Saints 24
I know that the perception of the Saints is that they look unbeatable, and their 17-point victory over the Lions this past weekend only reinforced that, but I saw something different. While Drew Brees and the offense were incredible once again, the Saints certainly didn't look invincible; they looked beatable. The Lions controlled the time of possession in the first half, and led for the majority of the first 30 minutes. Ultimately, the Saints made some adjustments and the Lions didn't do a good enough job shortening the game. Time of possession shifted, and the Saints ended up running away with it. The 49ers have a strong enough defense to slow down even the mighty Drew Brees, and you can bet it's going to be in their game plan to limit the amount of times he touches the ball. As the only home underdog going into this weekend, I think San Francisco is out to prove they belong, and I have them taking down the hottest team in football this weekend.
Sean (follow on Twitter): San Francisco 49ers 27, New Orleans Saints 24
Home-field advantage in the NFL is more important than any other sport by far. The Saints at home are a totally different team then they are on the road. The Saints were 5-3 on the road this year. The loss at Green Bay can be expected, but two stinkers against the Bucs and Rams, who combined to go 6-26 were awful, and cost the Saints the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Saints have covered in an amazing nine games in a row. I don't think they will make it 10 in this one. I really like San Fransisco's defense. Aldon Smith has been a terror all year and should win the defensive rookie of the year award. Patrick Willis is one of the best defensive players in football. San Fransisco has been money at home all year. Their only loss came to the Cowboys in a game which they should have won. Alex Smith hasn't lived up to being the No. 1 overall QB in the 2005 draft, but he has played better this year under Jim Harbaugh. I think San Fransisco will ground & pound, and play great defense and sneak out a win in this one. Everyone wants to see a New Orleans vs Green Bay matchup, but they will be disappointed early. New Orleans on a slow field versus a good defense will lose in the final few seconds, 27-24.
Dan (follow on Twitter): New Orleans Saints 20, San Francisco 49ers 15
The Saints will head west this week after blowing out the Lions at home, but the Saints are certainly a different team on the road. The resurgent 49ers have rested up, and will enjoy their first home playoff game in a decade. The Saints have certianly had the Niners number, as they have won the last six head-to-head matchups. The Saints will most likely stay away from the run game, as San Fransisco boasts the best rushing D in the league, but they will look to exploit a passing defense that allowed 231 yards per game and 17 touchdowns. The 49ers best chance to win the game is to grind it out on the ground by using the eighth-best rush offense in the league going against a Saints front seven that allows 108.6 yards per game and an eye popping 5 yards per carry. The Saints are not the offensive juggernaut on grass, so I expect this game to be close, but the Saints have the experience to get the job done. New Orleans to the ship, 20-15.
Steve: San Francisco 49ers 27, New Orleans Saints 17
The toughest game of the weekend to pick, so I went to the stats. The 49ers were best in the NFL against the run defensively, and the Saints were the 6th best running offense in the NFL. The Saints defensively were 30th in the league against the pass , but the 49ers were 29th in the league in passing offense. The Saints had the best passing offense in the NFL; however the 49ers had the best turnover differential. . . . . uggh. . . I still have no idea. Everyone seems to be taking the Saints and they are favored to win by 3.5. This is weak logic, but when everyone is betting on one team, we should go the other way, so I’m taking the 49ers on the field. Look, everyone’s talking about the 40+ points that Saints scored over the last four games, but really that was against Detroit, Minnesota, Carolina, and Atlanta. The Saints will be playing in San Fran, on a slow surface as opposed to the indoor they’re accustomed to, which is negating their best strength. More importantly, San Francisco’s defense is the best in the NFL. They have an extra week to rest and prepare. They’ll control the clock and limit possessions. The passing defense stat is inflated, as they gave up a lot of yards late in the game in a prevent mode. If Saints fall behind like they did against Detroit last week, they’ll be out of the game by the 2nd quarter. The 49ers dominate possession of the ball and it’ll feel like Drew Brees wasn’t even on the field in the first half. I’ll take the 49ers win: 27 –17.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): New Orleans Saints 24, San Francisco 49ers 16
Of all the matchups this weekend, this is perhaps the most intriguing as these two teams thrive for different reasons. The Saints' high-powered offense is led by Drew Brees, who set NFL records for most passing yards, completion, 300-yard games and highest completion percentage in a season. In his past eight games including last season's playoff win, Brees has been virtually unstoppable. During that span, Brees has thrown for 2,938 yards (367.25 per game) and has a 28:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. For what it's worth, Brees has averaged more passing yards outdoors than he has in domes this season. On the other hand, the 49ers have one of the league's best defenses. They ranked second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game) and fourth in total defense (308.2 yards per game allowed) and the 49ers run defense led the NFL (77.3 YPG allowed). Believe it or not, the Saints had a better rushing offense (sixth in the NFL) than the 49ers (eighth). I expect the 49ers defense to slow down the Saints a bit, but I doubt that the Niners offense can keep up with that slightly slower pace.
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Ravens-Texans game:
The Texans were very impressive this past weekend against Cincinnati. People were fairly split as to the outcome of the game, but I think pretty much everyone expected a close game one way or another. Instead, the Texans took control of the game and scored a decisive victory, for the team's first ever playoff win. After seeing that performance, I certainly give them a chance to go into Baltimore and win. Still, I do still like the Ravens to come out on top. Baltimore played its best football against good teams, as evidenced by their 6-0 record against playoff teams. One of those games was a relatively one-sided affair against these same Texans. I think Houston will give Baltimore a much better game this time around, but the Ravens will pull it out.
I may be changing my AFC Super Bowl pick after watching the Texans on Saturday. They looked really good against the Bengals. The Bengals are obviously not in the same class as the Ravens, but they did give the Ravens some trouble. Houston's defense is very good, and I made my case a few weeks ago for Wade Phillips as coach of the year. He turned that Texans defense around this year. Baltimore lives and dies with Ray Rice. Baltimore has gotten away from Rice at times this year, so it is very important for the Ravens to take a lead early and not play from behind. In Week 6, these two teams met in Baltimore and the Ravens won 29-14. This game was played without Andre Johnson though. I think Johnson is the X factor in this one. There isn't a corner on the Ravens that can cover Johnson. Baltimore is going to have to draw extra attention his way or he is going to beat them. This will open up some of the underneath stuff to Daniels and Dreessen. This is where Yates is most comfortable. If the Ravens don't roll extra coverage towards Johnson, then Yates is very capable in burning them deep. I will live with my Baltimore-Green Bay as my official prediction for the Super Bowl, but I think the Texans are the one team this week that people are overlooking.
The Texans handled their first playoff game in history quite sucessfully, as they easily disposed of the Bengals. After years of playing on the road, the Ravens will finally get a home playoff game as they come into the playoffs as the number 2 seed. The Ravens and Texans have already met up this year, with the Ravens beating a Matt Schaub-led Texans team 29-14. The Ravens managed to stifle the Texans No. 2 ranked rush defense to only 93 yards on the ground, while limiting the Texans to 200 yards through the air. The Ravens will look to feature Ray Rice against a stout rush defense that only allowed 96 yards per game, and a passing defense that only allowed 190 yards a game. While the Texans defense has been great, the Ravens defense is just a little bit better, as they only allow 92 yards per game on the ground, and 196 YPG and 11 touchdowns through the air. I always love the home team coming off the bye week, and the Ravens have been money at home this year. Ravens in a low-scoring contest, 20-10
Steve: Baltimore Ravens 13, Houston Texans 6
Now matter what you hear before, during, or after the game, the player with greatest impact will be Baltimore nose tackle, Haloti Ngata. I consider him the best d-lineman in the NFL and he eats up offensive linemen and has made Ray Lewis look great for years. What Ngata does is make it easy for the linebackers to stuff the run, effectively taking away what Houston does best. The Texans may be able to find some success going to the outside, but I’d expect Baltimore to game plan for this. The Ravens will have a hard time moving the ball as well, and I see a big special teams play being impactful to the outcome. I still find Baltimore being successful with a kick return for a TD being the deciding factor.
The first time these two teams have played each other, the Texans were without stud receiver Andre Johnson, who had a nice game (90 yards and a touchdown) in last week's win over Cincinnati. In addition, the Texans were only 58 rushing yards short of having two 1,000-yard rushers and no running back has more yards from scrimmage over the past two seasons than Arian Foster (4,061). That said, the guy who led the NFL in yards from scrimmage this season (2,068) plays on the other side: Ray Rice. After three straight seasons of making the postseason as a wildcard team, the Ravens now get to host a playoff game. As I pointed out earlier in the season, the Ravens have been much better at home this season and over the past three years. At M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens were 8-0 this season and 21-3 over the past three seasons. I expect the Ravens to prevail at home in a game that is closer than their first matchup, which was a 29-14 home win for the Ravens.
[Related: Our poll on which running back will have more yards from scrimmage in this game: Foster or Rice?]
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Patriots-Broncos game:
John (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 37, Denver Broncos 20
Kudos to the Broncos for beating Pittsburgh at home this past weekend. Although Roethlisberger was not 100% and they were missing a few key starters, I still expected Pittsburgh to take care of business. Although Tebow still connected on less than 50 percent of his passes, he certainly showed off some big play capability, including the 80-yard touchdown in overtime we've all seen 100 times by now. Still, Brady and the Pats are eagerly awaiting the Broncos visit. I don't think that Denver can carry on the momentum they gained against the Steelers, and I expect that if they have to play catch up against New England, Tebow is going to make some mistakes. Ultimately, I think the Pats win this one handily.
Sean (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 44, Denver Broncos 10
The Broncos played with a chip on their shoulder Sunday as very few people actually gave them a shot. There is going to be even less people who are going to give them a shot this week at New England. The Steelers lost the game, not on defense but offense. Their protection of Ben Roethlisberger was awful. Denver had five sacks and was chasing Big Ben all over the field. Ben didn't look comfortable back there at all. I do think the injury did come into play more then he is letting on. This week the Broncos enter Foxboro and face the AFC's top QB, and unlike Roethlisberger, Brady is a quick decision maker and gets the ball out quick. This will neutralize Denver's pass rush. I think the Patriots will have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field and I fully expect them to score 30-plus points in this one. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau may well be one of the greatest DC's of all time, but Lebeau ins't Belichick. The Steelers may have a better defensive team statistically, have the better personnel, but they do not have Belichick. As much as I hate Belichick, I respect him. I fully expect Belichick to come up with a defensive scheme to shut down the one-dimensional Tebow-led Broncos offense. I see multiple turnovers in Tebow's future, and a sub-40 percent completion percentage. This game will get ugly. I think the Pats steamroll the Broncos in this one.
In a game that has a chance to set playoff TV viewing records, this game features Tom Brady vs Tim Tebow. The two teams met earlier this year with the Patriots mauling the Broncos in Denver 41-23. The Broncos were able to move the ball against the flexible Pats defense as they posted 252 yards rushing and 141 yards passing. The Patriots compiled an impressive 141 yards on the ground, and a more classical 310 yards passing from Tom Brady while taking advantage of three Denver turnovers. For the Broncos to win, they will have to shorten the game with their top-ranked rushing attack, force some turnovers, and stay away from the turnover bug themselves. While the Tebow ride has been quite the story, I believe it comes to an end this weekend. The Patriots number 2 pass offense that averages 318 yards per game is too much for a Broncos pass D that gives up 232 yards per game and 24 touchdowns. I do not like the Broncos on the road, playing on the short week, and going up against Bill Belichick who has already seen their offense once. Patriots at home 34-17.
Steve: New England Patriots 30, Denver Broncos 20
Before breaking down the game, has there ever been a player more mis-evaluated by the media than Tim Tebow? The hyperbole is sickening – he’s either the next great thing at QB or isn’t good enough to carry the team bags, vacillating back and forth like a see-saw. As with most things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. First and foremost – last week's game: I’m sure we all heard that Tebow broke 300 yards passing for the game, but let's dig a little deeper. During regulation, he was 9 of 20 for 236 yards, which just doesn’t sound quite as good since ex’d out that 80 yard completion in OT. Now giving some credit, he was able to complete passes downfield, as he had two other passes in excess of 50 yards during the game. So what contributed to his success? – Probably the most overrated defensive player in football today, Troy Palomalu. With Ryan Clark missing from the defensive secondary (held out by coach’s decision due to his sickle cell condition – definitely the right call by Mike Tomlin - Coaches do have the responsibility to look after a player’s safety), Palomalu was exposed as the overaggressive, free lancer he’s historically been by getting caught out of position repeatedly during the game.
So what does my lengthy revisiting of last week’s Broncos game mean for their chances against the Patriots? – Tebow is considered a “sight thrower.” He’s able to take advantage of defensive mistakes (re-watch that replay of the 80-yard TD in OT and look at how open Thomas), so connects when the defense breaks down due to his scrambling or when the defense makes mistakes, but he struggles against disciplined teams. The Patriots above all else are a disciplined team and won’t find the opportunities he did against a depleted Steelers team. Offensively, the Patriots are too good for any team to stop completely and I don’t foresee anything differently here. The Tebow magic carpet ride finally comes to an end. Look for the Patriots to roll in game that won’t be as competitive as the final score may indicate.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 38, Denver Broncos 13
For the Broncos to have a chance, they need to establish an early lead in this game similar to what they did against the Steelers last week. That said, the Steelers defense is much better than the squad the Patriots will use to slow down Tebow, but it helps that these two teams have already met and the Patriots added Josh McDaniels to help the Pats gameplan against them. The Patriots have won eight straight games and have scored 30-plus points in seven of the eight. (The exception was a 27-point performance against the Dolphins.) Perhaps I am underestimating the Broncos (again), but I think the Patriots win easily and this game will be out of reach by the second quarter.
[Related: Our poll on how many passing yards Tebow will have this week.]
In the most important game of his NFL career, Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow threw for a career-high 316 yards against the league's top-ranked pass defense including 80 of those yards in the only offensive play of overtime.
Despite completing less than 50 percent of his pass attempts (10-for-21), Tebow threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns and ran 10 times for 50 yards and a touchdown. In other words, Tebow finished with 31 fantasy points.
The Steelers did not allow more than 20 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in any regular-season game this year.
In his first matchup against the Patriots this season, Tebow completed 11 of 22 passes for only 194 yards although he ran for 93 yards and two touchdowns.
During the regular season, the Patriots allowed the second-most passing yards (293.9 per game). Coincidentally, the only team to allow more is the other No. 1 seed in the postseason.
Counting last week's playoff win, Tebow has started 12 games this season. In those 12 games, Tebow has thrown for 200-plus yards only three times and has thrown for less than 100 yards twice.
How many passing yards will Tebow have this time around against the Patriots?
Over the past two seasons, the two running backs with the most yards from scrimmage will meet in Baltimore this weekend: Houston's Arian Foster (4,061) and Baltimore's Ray Rice (3,844).
Foster led the NFL in rushing (1,616 yards) and YFS (2,220) last year while Rice led the NFL in YFS (2,068) even though Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew led the league in rushing (1,606 yards) in 2011.
Earlier in the season when these two teams met, Rice rushed for 101 yards on 23 carries and added five receptions for 60 yards. For the Texans, Foster had only 49 rushing yards and 52 receiving yards on six receptions.
Although he was inactive for Week 17, Foster has three straight 100-yard games in which he has played including 153 rushing yards against the Bengals on Saturday. Since Week 7, Foster has rushed for 100-plus yards seven times and finished with 100-plus receiving yards twice in 10 games. He has also scored 13 touchdowns during that span.
In Rice's last game (also against the Bengals), he finished with 191 rushing yards and eight receiving yards. Rice has more than 100 YFS in five straight games and has two games with 190-plus rushing yards since Week 13.
Of these two stud running backs, which one will have more yards from scrimmage this week?
The Steelers ranked first in the NFL in pass defense (171.9 yards per game allowed) this season and did not allow any 100-yard receivers in any of the 16 regular-season games.
That streak (and their season) is over.
Broncos second-year receiver Demaryius Thomas finished the game with four receptions for 204 yards and the game-winning 80-yard touchdown in overtime.
Going into Monday's night BCS Championship Game, there was no controversy around the unbeaten and top-ranked LSU Tigers playing for the national title.
With no playoff system in place to determine who should meet in the championship game, however, there was plenty of debate about whether it should be Alabama or Oklahoma State that faces LSU. Since Alabama finished second in the BCS standings ahead of Oklahoma State, who beat Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl, it will be the second time that LSU and 'Bama face each other this season.
The fact that these two teams faced each other already has no bearing on whether or not I think they should meet in the championship game although I would much rather have the matchups determined by a playoff (ideally eight teams).
In their first matchup, LSU beat Alabama by a field goal in overtime in Tuscaloosa, but the Crimson Tide were only two-of-six on field goal attempts in that game.
Alabama and LSU rank first and second, respectively, in scoring defense (8.8 and 10.5 points allowed per game) and total defense (191.3 and 252.1 yards allowed per game). Will it be another defensive battle between college football's top two defensive teams?
Alabama, who hasn't played since November 26th, are two-point favorites over LSU, who last played on December 3rd in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees extended his streak of 300-yard games to eight with a 466-yard performance in tonight's playoff win over the Lions.
Brees completed 33 of 43 pass attempts and threw three touchdowns and no interceptions.
It was the second-most in a playoff game and only the 16th 400-yard game in NFL postseason history. Only Cleveland's Bernie Kosar threw for more in a playoff game: 489 yards in an overtime win against the Jets on January 3rd, 1987.
Next week, the Saints will travel to the west coast to take on the 49ers, who have the league's second-ranked scoring defense (14.3 points per game) and fourth-ranked overall defense (308.2 yards per game). Their pass defense ranked 16th in the NFL (230.9 yards allowed per game).
In my full playoff predictions, I have the Saints beating the 49ers next week and going on to win their second Super Bowl title in three seasons.
For the third time in four games, Lions receiver Calvin Johnson finished with more than 200 receiving yards in a game.
In tonight's loss to the Saints, my pick to win it all, Johnson caught 12 of 15 targets and finished with 211 yards and two touchdowns.
Before this year, only five other receivers have had 200-plus receiving yards in a postseason game in NFL history.
In his past four games counting tonight's game, Megatron has a total of 36 receptions for 771 yards and six touchdowns. He has at least 102 receiving yards and one touchdown in all four games during that span.
Johnson led the NFL in receiving yards (1,681), was second in receiving touchdowns (16) and fourth in receptions (96) during the regular season. All three of those were career highs and Johnson will be the consensus top receiver drafted in 2012.
Earlier in the week, five EDSFootball.com contributors predicted the final score for all four games during wild-card weekend. Of the four games, two were consensus picks: Saints over Lions and Texans over Bengals.
Could the team with the best regular-season record, likely MVP (see my award predictions) and best odds to win the Super Bowl be one-(win)-and-done in the playoffs? Perhaps it's coincidental, but the last time a team with the best record in the regular season won the Super Bowl was after the 2003 season when the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVIII. That is not why I'm picking the Saints over the Packers, but it's an interesting stat.
Granted the Saints would have a better shot of winning this game if it were in New Orleans, but Brees and the Saints have as high powered of an offense as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The difference is the Saints offense is more versatile. New Orleans ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing offense (132.9 yards per game). Green Bay has the sixth-worst rushing offense (97.4 YPG). Brees has a seven-game streak of 300-plus passing yards and here is his line during that span: 71.6 completion percentage, 2,472 passing yards (353.1 per game), 124.3 passer rating and a 25:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Divisional Round:
(1) Patriots over (5) Steelers
(2) Ravens over (3) Texans
AFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Patriots over (2) Ravens
As we have seen through the regular season, the Ravens have been a much better team at home than on the road: 8-0 (home) and 4-4 (road). On the other hand, we know how tough the Tom Brady-led Patriots are to beat at home. The Ravens defense is as good as it gets and Brady has not played great against them. In five games (counting their playoff loss two years ago) against Baltimore, Brady has completed only 55.9 percent of his passes (104 of 186) for 226.6 YPG and has thrown as many interceptions (six) as touchdowns (six). That said, I think this game comes down to the last possession and Brady pulls out the victory in Foxboro.
Coincidentally, the Saints ranked sixth in the league in rushing offense when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. I think their offensive balance and ability to play the Super Bowl in a dome (Indianapolis) makes them nearly impossible to defend. Then again, nearly every team has been difficult to defend for the Patriots, especially their defensive backs. When it comes to offense, the difference between Brady and Brees and Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham is negligible. This game has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls ever, but I have more faith in the Saints' ability to make a stop or two when needed than I have in New England's. The Saints will win, 35-27.
I know this is actually complete chalk in terms of seeds, but most people will have the Saints over the 49ers and possibly even the Packers. I also suspect a fair amount of people will take the Falcons over the Giants in the first round. I'd love to go another way than the Packers, but they've been hands down the best team in football this year in my eyes, and if they can play to their potential, I don't see anyone beating them.
Divisional Round:
(1) Patriots over (5) Steelers
(2) Ravens over (3) Texans
AFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Patriots over (2) Ravens
I'm not a Patriots fan, so I'd like to see myself be wrong here, but the Patriots are the best team in the AFC. They have come out flat in a lot of games this year, and then ended up just pouring it on and winning the game easily. Since losing to the Giants, the Patriots have won eight games in a row. Their offense is as good as any in the league, and their defense, though 31st in the league in yards, is 15th in points allowed. The poor defensive numbers are a little misleading though, as they are with Green Bay's 32nd-ranked defense. Though I wouldn't call either defense "good," they are victimized by such strong offenses. The defense is on the field more often with less rest when the offense can score as quickly and efficiently as these offenses do. I do think the Ravens can pose a challenge, but in New England, it's hard to pick against Brady and Belichick, the winningest coach/player combination in league history.
I know I'm not exactly going out on a limb picking the 15-1 Packers to win the Super Bowl. That said, it certainly isn't going to be an easy road. The Saints are perhaps the hottest team in the league, and it will take a lot to get by them if need be. The 49ers have a great defense that would likely slow down the Packers' offense. And while San Fran's offense is not great, Green Bay's defense is obviously their weak point. Even the Giants are capable of knocking the Packers off, given that Eli Manning led a drive in the final minutes of the game they played earlier in the year to tie them with less than a minute to go. Rodgers was able to one up Eli and march down the field in a matter of seconds to get into field goal range and get the win, but ever since the Chiefs upset Green Bay, they certainly were exposed as beatable.
The Patriots are also beatable, as they fall behind early far too often. Although their offense seems like they can score at will, their defense is quite vulnerable, and if they fall behind to a good playoff team, the Patriots certainly could go down. Every team has their flaws, though. The Ravens have been inexplicably bad at times this year, the Steelers have injury problems and can't beat the Ravens, and the Texans lost their number one quarterback earlier in the season, realistically taking them out of top contention in the eyes of most.
As for the game itself, the Packers are just the better overall team. You can flip a coin on Brady and Rodgers, and it's likely that whoever gets the ball last will be the team to triumph. But between the Packers defense being the better group in my mind and the Patriots problems with falling behind early, I like the Packers to come out on top. In this day and age, it's difficult for a team to repeat as champion, but the Packers are good enough to do just that. And I expect that they will.
We are introducing a new feature this (fantasy football) offseason and it's starting today: Fantasy Football Fridays.
Essentially what will happen each Friday (hence the name) is I will pose a question to all EDSFootball.com contributors and will post all the responses to the question in this weekly post.
Of course, you could say that Tuesday is Fantasy Football Tuesday or Sunday is Fantasy Football Sunday since that is our site's primary focus, but just go with it.
For those looking for 2012 fantasy football rankings, our first iteration will be out by the day after Super Bowl XLVI (but likely sooner). After that point, we will update our rankings after the beginning of the free-agent period and after the 2012 NFL Draft as well. Starting in July, they will updated frequently.
Getting back to "Fantasy Football Friday," here is the first question of the year (and the responses):
Which tight end should be drafted first in 2012: Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski?
John (see archives): You really can't go wrong with either one of these guys. This is less like the decision of Ryan Leaf vs. Peyton Manning, where one guy goes down as one of the biggest busts of all time while the other goes on to be one of the best of all time. Instead, this is more like Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady; both are can't-miss players, and if you can't have one, you'd be happy to have the other. Graham promises to be a big part of New Orleans prolific offense moving forward, but Gronkowski promises the same for the Patriots. This past year, both guys caught 90+ balls and scored double digit touchdowns, but Gronkowski scored 17 times, six more than Graham did. For this reason alone, I would go with Gronkowski. Graham is certainly a red zone threat, but Gronkowski is an even bigger one. They will both catch a lot of balls and pile on the yardage, but Gronkowski was virtually unstoppable near the end zone this past year, and until teams start proving they can cover him, Gronk looks like the strongest fantasy TE in the game.
Sean (visit his site): Gronkowski's and Graham's numbers this year are very similar, and the toughest thing to predict is touchdowns. New England suprisingly has more rushing TDs than New Orleans this season 18-16 despite New Orleans clearly having the better RBs. I think this will change next year as Mark Ingram gets another year under his belt. I'm drafting Gronkowski a tad earlier than Graham, but I think both go mid-2nd to early-3rd next year.
Dan (follow on Twitter): Next years number one TE selection is going to be very difficult. With the numbers Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham put up, you should treat them as top echelon wideouts. Gronkowski put up 90 catches for 1327 yards and 17 TDs, while Graham compiled 99 catches for 1310 yards and 11 TDs. I would take Gronkowski as the first TE as he will have more touchdowns given Brees penchant to spread the ball around.
Steve (see archives): I could write 500 words on why Gronkowski should have been the first overall pick (and have), let alone the first tight end taken this year; however, we are forecasting to next year, which is the proverbial "horse of a different color" and ironically I'd take Graham over Gronkowski next year. The reasons why have to do more with the environment, than the player himself. This year, another New England tight end, Aaron Hernadez was the fifth-best in fantasy at the position and is set to steal some targets from Gronkowski next year. That combined with how good Gronkonski was this year, there is bound to be some regression, especially with coaches gameplanning more against him. Historically great seasons (i.e., Brady and Moss in 07) come back to their historical average the following year. Expect a good year from both, but I like Graham's chances to get better next year still.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): In NFL history, there have been five tight ends that have finished with 90-plus receptions, 1,000-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. Two of them did it in 2011: Graham and Gronkowski. In fact, both tight ends finished with more than 1,300 yards, which are the two best all-time performances by a tight end. So, in other words, you can't go wrong either way, but I would take Gronkowski if I had the choice. While touchdowns are (more) difficult to predict, Gronkowski has 27 receiving touchdowns in the past two seasons. Only Detroit's Calvin Johnson (28) has more and only two other players have at least 20: Green Bay's Greg Jennings (21) and Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe (20).
Although January 13th will be the next "Fantasy Football Friday," feel free to stop by before then. Keep track of our updates via Facebook.
Wisconsin running back Montee Ball has decided to return to school for his senior season.
One of the main factors influencing Ball's decision to stay in school was the draft grade he received from NFL evaluators.
"I got it back two or three weeks ago, and obviously it weighed a lot on my decision. They came back, they said third round, and obviously I was a little disappointed. I felt like I was better than third round. Me coming back now, I'll be able to focus on my strength, my speed and all that stuff, and I believe I can better my stock," Ball said.
An area of focus for the 205-pound back will be to add about 10 pounds to his frame, however, he dropped 25-30 pounds going into last season. "I'm sure my body is a little confused with that, going from 230 to 205 and now I have to get back up to 215," Ball said.
Ball tied the NCAA record for touchdowns (39) set by Hall-of-Fame running back Barry Sanders and he finished with 1,923 rushing yards last year. In other words, he is unlikely to improve upon his on-field performance.
I understand why Ball would be disappointed by the draft grade he received. Considering how short-lived the career of an NFL running back is, however, I don't understand why he wouldn't cash in on his opportunity to move on to the next level.
There were three quarterbacks that threw for 5,000-plus yards in the 2011 season. Two of them will meet in New Orleans.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees set a number of passing records this season: yards (5,476), completions (468), completion percentage (71.2) and 300-yard games (13) to name a few. Yet I had him finishing second in the MVP voting when I predicted postseason award winners earlier in the week.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford, the top overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, threw for 5,038 yards, but as importantly he stayed healthy for a full 16-game season after playing in only three games last year. Of course, he would have not thrown for 5,000-plus yards without playing a full season.
The Lions are in the postseason for the first time since 1999 and this game is destined to be a shootout, which means it'll be 9-6, right?
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Saints-Lions game:
John: New Orleans Saints 38, Detroit Lions 34
New Orleans has been unbelievable this season. They've won their final eight games of the season, and finished 8-0 at home. Drew Brees annihilated Marino's single-season passing yards record and put himself in MVP contention, a feat that looked impossible a few weeks ago, considering the season Aaron Rodgers has had. There is absolutely nothing that says that the Lions will win this game. I've gone back and forth on this game, but I just can't pull the trigger. The Saints at home are just too good. And the Lions still have an immature, mistake-ridden group that needs to become more disciplined before they will be among the favorites to win it all. I do expect the Lions to come out with a lot of energy and even rattle Brees a bit. In the end, though, home field and the most explosive offense in the league will simply be too much for Detroit.
Sean: New Orleans Saints 37, Detroit Lions 31
Detroit blew it this past week vs Matt Flynn and the Packers. Nobody wants to play the Saints at home right now. Drew Brees and the Saints offense is clicking on all cylinders. The only way to beat the Saints is to beat them in a shoot out. When you get opportunities versus the Saints in the redzone, you have to convert those to TDs and not FGs. Detroit is fourth in the NFL in converting TD's in the redzone. Detroit is also third in the NFC in takeaways while New Orleans is last. This game is going to be closer then people think, although I think Detroit's inexperience will be their downfall.
Dan: New Orleans Saints 38, Detroit Lions 28
In a game that has the potential to post the most offensive fireworks in playoff history, as both teams surpassed the 5,000-yard passing mark for the year. The Saints have been the leagues hottest team down the stretch, and look almost invincible at home since they posted a perfect 8-0 record. The Saints have been on fire lately as in their last three games they have posted 40 plus points in each, and won by an average of 25 points. The Saints and Lions also faced off in December in New Orleans with the decision going to the Saints, 31-17. The Lions were able to move the ball on the Saints gaining 466 total yards of offense, and if they can stay away from the turnover, they have a great chance to pick off the Saints. I like the Brees-led Saints passing attack just a little bit better than the young Lions 22nd-ranked passing defense that has yielded 26 touchdowns on the year. I am taking the Saints, 38-28.
Steve: New Orleans Saints 45, Detroit Lions 33
If you like points, you’ve come to the right game. Not sure what Vegas has now, but pretty sure you want to take the over. I expect this game to be Calvin Johnson and Drew Brees setting playoff records at their respective positions. NFL “pundits” have questioned Johnson’s ability and desire to take over a game and this will be his moment to prove them wrong. I could easily see 200+ yards and two TDs for Johnson, unfortunately he will be handicapped by his quarterback. Stafford is a good, young, QB, however, he’s overmatched in this game and his 300-plus yards and three TDs are going to overset by three picks, not to mention overshadowed by Drew Brees. Brees throws 400 yards and 6 touchdowns and another notch in his Hall of Fame resume. The Saints offensive jugernaught slowly pulls away in a game that looks like it could go either way.
Kevin: New Orleans Saints 48, Detroit Lions 42
Imagine if this were a college football game (or that their overtime rules were used for this game)? This could end up being a 91-84 shootout in eight overtimes or something ridiculous like that. The Lions are coming off a game in which Matthew Stafford and Packers backup Matt Flynn combined for 1,000 passing yards. So, this week, substitute Brees, who set the single-season passing yardage record this year, for Flynn and let's see what we get. With both teams having explosive offenses, the question comes down to which team is more likely to muster a stop or two and I think that team is New Orleans. With the Super Dome being one of the toughest places to play for road teams, the Saints will outlast the Lions in one of the highest-scoring playoff games in NFL history.
If you are playing fantasy football in the playoffs, the two NFC games certainly have many more talented quarterbacks and receivers in the first round than the AFC does.
The other NFC game features a pair of 5,000-yard passers while Giants quarterback Eli Manning just missed the mark by 67 yards and Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan threw for a career-high 4,177 yards. Seven of the league's ten 4,000-yard passers play in the NFC.
Based on 2011 receiving yards, this game features three of the top 10 wide receivers: Victor Cruz (1,536), Roddy White (1,296) and Hakeem Nicks (1,192).
In addition, Julio Jones, who missed three games, finished with 959 yards. In other words, if he stayed healthy and maintained his 73.8 yards-per-game average, he would have finished with 1,180 yards.
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Giants-Falcons game:
John: New York Giants 31, Atlanta Falcons 17
Going into the Sunday night game between the Cowboys and Giants, I had already made up my mind that Atlanta was going to beat the winner anyway. The Giants, however, made a convincing case, as they really took it to the Cowboys from start to finish. Even after a 21-0 lead evaporated into a 7-point game, the Giants kept their composure and scored the next 10 points to win the division and advance to wild card weekend. The Giants have been a bit inconsistent this year, and it certainly would not be surprising to see them get knocked out this weekend. They also have the potential to play with the best in the league, as evidenced by their defeating the Patriots in New England and losing on a last-second field goal to the Packers earlier in the year. Atlanta has a powerful offense that has started clicking down the stretch run of the season, but the Giants have the better overall team. Eli Manning has had the best season of his career. Victor Cruz has emerged as a true superstar to go along with the rest of the Giants solid receiving corps. And when Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora are on their game, the Giants have an excellent pass rush that is capable of slowing down an offense that is even as prolific as Atlanta's. Sunday night's game changed my mind on this one. I'm going with the GMen to move on.
Sean: New York Giants 30, Atlanta Falcons 27
The AFC games are stinkers this week. Thank god we have two exciting NFC matchups. I am not counting out the Falcons in this one, but this Giants team has something special going on right now. Everything seems to be going right for them. Eli Manning has been playing well enough down the stretch, and he always turns it on come playoff time. Atlanta has gotten away from their bread and butter which was always running the football. I don't believe that their rushing attack is back because Michael Turner had a big game last week vs the Bucs. Both teams have mediocre pass defenses, and both teams will be tested down field, but I think the difference in this one is the Giants ability to rush the passer where they were second in the NFL this year. I can see a big Matt Ryan fumble from a JPP sack being the difference in this one. I think the Giants win with a 4th-quarter comeback.
Dan: New York Giants 31, Atlanta Falcons 27
In the game that on paper should be the closest matchup of the weekend, will have the Falcons in search of that first elusive playoff win under Mike Smith's tenure. This game will certainly come down to how well the Falcons can hold Eli Manning, as the Giants have the worst rushing attack in the league averaging 89 yards per game. In theory the Falcons should use Michael Turner to control the clock and keep the Giants offense off the field, but since Michael Boley has come back the Giants rush defense has looked that much better. How could you not love the fifth-ranked pass offense going against the Falcons secondary that gives up 237 yards per game, and they are prone to giving up the big play. The Giants are battle tested as they played four of the top five teams in our power rankings this year, and I just don't trust the Falcons on the road outdoors.
Steve: New York Giants 21, Atlanta Falcons 10
You may have read the analysis of the 2011 coaching hot seat, where I mentioned that Mike Smith will lose his job should the Falcons be blown out by the Giants in the opening round of the playoffs. I’ll amend that slightly; the Falcons will lose a moderately competitive game, 21-10. The Giants are bad matchup for the Falcons, an issue exacerbated by injury. Tight end Tony Gonzalez has been held out of practice, and a healthy tight end would be critical to success exploiting the Giants weakness at linebacker. The Falcons ability to throw downfield will be neutralized by the Giants pass rush. I’d expect a couple of sacks from Justin Tuck and either Osi Umenyoira or Jason Pierre-Paul on the other end depending on who gets the playing time. The Giants will have a hard time running the ball against the Atlanta defense, but Eli Manning will be able to make enough plays in the passing game to Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks to get a few touchdowns. The most interesting part of this game will be the Monday following. The New York media will buzz of how the Giants defense stepped up and the upcoming rematch with the Packers. By noon on Monday we’ll be all tired of hearing the comparisons to 2007 and upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl, which will be especially amusing when the Giants lose by 20 to the Packers the next weekend.
Kevin: Atlanta Falcons 27, New York Giants 24
With the exception of the Redskins game in Week 15, the Giants have been playing better over the past five weeks. But the Falcons have started to turn things around as well. In three of the past four games, the Falcons have scored more than 30 points including two games with 40-plus points. In his past seven games, quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown no interceptions in six of those games. Since the bye, Ryan has a 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In their past four games, Roddy White (32-415-3) and Julio Jones (20-393-6) have combined for 52 receptions for 808 yards and nine touchdowns. With one of the four worst pass defenses based on yards allowed, the Giants will definitely have their hands full trying to contain the Falcons talented receivers. I see the Falcons escaping on a last-second field goal in a game that can go either way.
In their fifth game, which turned out to be their fourth loss, they benched starter Kyle Orton for Tim Tebow, arguably the most polarizing player in the NFL.
While the final stat lines haven't been pretty, Tebow went on to lead the Broncos to win seven of eight games and most of them were come-from-behind fourth-quarter (or overtime) victories. His proponents would argue that quarterbacks are measured by wins more than anything else and he's winning.
Well, he was winning.
The Broncos limped into the postseason as losers of their past three games and host the Steelers, who are literally limping into the postseason. The Steelers have lost running back Rashard Mendenhall to a torn ACL and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger admitted to suffering a setback in last week's game against the Browns.
While safety Ryan Clark is not injured, he won't play due to a blood disorder that could jeopardize his well-being if he were to play. I have respect for Steelers coach Mike Tomlin making the call and considering Clark's health over winning.
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Steelers-Broncos game:
John: Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Denver Broncos 3
Tim Tebow has been a polarizing figure all year long. You either love him or hate him. Whichever way you feel about him, he simply hasn't played well enough to give the Broncos a chance to win. Even during their winning streak, most of his game performances were putrid, aside from one drive at the end. Still, so long as they were winning, it didn't really matter how. Now that they are on a three-game losing streak, the magic seems to have ended, and the Broncos have been exposed as the mediocre team that they are. Although their defense can keep them in a lot of games, the atrocious output of the offense simply isn't going to keep them in contention with a team like Pittsburgh (anyone that suffered through the Kansas City game this past weekend knows exactly how atrocious they've been). The Steelers have some injuries that could affect their chances of getting to Indianapolis this year, but I'm confident Charlie Batch and the B squad could handle the Broncos this weekend.
Sean: Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Denver Broncos 6
Tebow time in prime time, and thankfully the Tebow era will come to an end. Tebow and the Broncos are going to have a real hard time moving the ball against this Steelers defense, and this isn't even one of the better defensive Steelers teams. The only chance Denver has on this one is for them to come up with huge plays on defense and special teams. I just don't see this happening this week. Tebow was a great story this season, but Tebowmania is officially over after this game. I think Tebow is going to make 3-4 mistakes, give the Steelers a short field and the Steelers will capitalize on those opportunities. Pittsburgh even without Mendenhall will roll.
Dan: Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Denver Broncos 10
Perhaps they are not yet ready for prime time, but here it comes in the afternoon it's Tebow time on the number one stage. Poor Pittsburgh, they compiled a 12-4 record, and they are rewarded by having to play in Mile High against a .500 ball club. The Broncos led the league in rushing this year averaging 164.5 yards a game and 4.5 yards per carry. The Steelers will counter with the 8th-ranked rushing defense in the league giving up 99 yards per game and four yards a clip. If the news wasn't bad enough that the Broncos face a stout rush defense, they will also contend with the league's best pass defense that only surrenders 172 yards per game. The Steelers do have some question marks on offense, and Ben Roethlisberger looks almost immobile, and some of his throws have been Tebow-esque as he can't step into them. The Steelers will also be missing their starting running back, which doesn't bode well as Denver is weak against the run giving up 126 yards per game. I foresee this one as another Pittsburgh struggle to score points game as they have only scored 13, 27, 3 and 14 vs. the Browns twice, Rams and 49ers. As much as I would love the upset for my Patriots and Tebow's first playoff game to explode talk radio .... Steelers 17, Broncos 10.
Steve: Denver Broncos 12, Pittsburgh Steelers 3
If you are taking the over on the Saints-Lions, you’ll take the under on the Steelers-Broncos. I could see the Broncos out “steelering” the Steelers. Lots of running and hard, aggressive defense. The Steelers have been able to hide their offensive line play this year that ranged from inconsistent to poor and is compounded by Maurkice Pouncey recovering from an ankle sprain. An injured offensive line, and a banged up Big Ben against an inspired Denver D? If you look at the Steelers losses this year (Ravens, 49ers, and Texans), they have a hard time against stout defenses and strong running teams and I can’t see the Steelers moving the ball. And besides what would the legend of Tebow be without a win in his first home playoff game? I’ll take the Broncos to win, 12-3.
Kevin: Pittsburgh Steelers 16, Broncos 6
Since the Raiders lost as well, the Broncos made the postseason with a loss, their third in a row, due to tie-breakers. Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey summed it up well: "... if we keep putting that product out there on the field like we did [Sunday], it's not going to be pretty." Tebow had his worst game of the season: 6-for-22 for 60 yards and an interception. In his past three games, Tebow has completed only 41 percent of his passes for 439 yards with a 1:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. Against the league's top-ranked pass defense (171.9 yards allowed per game), it's hard to imagine it getting any better. Like Champ said, it's not going to be pretty.
Heading into the wild-card round of the playoffs, both AFC home teams this weekend head into the postseason as losers of three straight games.
Unlike the Broncos, however, the Texans clinched the division and their first-ever playoff berth before their losing skid. That said, they would have certainly preferred to head into the postseason with some positive momentum instead of a three-game losing streak.
The Bengals, who clinched a playoff berth last week despite losing to the Ravens, lost their first matchup to the Texans and have struggled to beat teams with a winning record. In seven games against teams with a winning record, the Bengals won only one of them and it was over the 9-7 Titans.
For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Texans-Bengals game:
John: Houston Texans 24, Cincinnati Bengals 19
Earlier in the year, Houston edged Cincy 20-19 in an incredible game that came down to two long touchdown drives by T.J. Yates, including one in the final moments. It was a road game for Houston and this, of course, will be in Houston. Cincinnati has had an unexpectedly good season. With a rookie quarterback that few people were talking about, most people were predicting a disastrous season for the Bengals. Dalton has been solid all year, though, and would likely get rookie of the year consideration if not for Cam Newton's year. They also have a formidable defense, ranked 7th in the league in yards and 9th in points allowed. I think that the Bengals are the sexy pick here, especially with Houston losing three games in a row heading into the playoffs, but I'm taking the Texans to advance. Although injuries to Arian Foster, Mario Williams, Matt Schaub, and Andre Johnson throughout the year have kept this team from playing at full strength at any point, they still managed to win the division and lock up the three seed. Though not a typical powerhouse, I believe Houston could have been a force to be reckoned with and would have made some real noise if not for all their injuries. I still think they'll have enough to get by Cincy this weekend, though. I expect a relatively close game, Houston 24 Cincinnati 19.
Sean: Houston Texans 24, Cincinnati Bengals 17
I love the Texans at home in this one. They have a pair of running backs who eclipsed the 1,000 yard (from scrimmage) mark for the season, and most importantly a strong defense for really the first time in franchise history. Gary Kubiak's job was saved this year by Wade Phillips. If Houston was fully healthy, they would be the team to beat in my opinion in the AFC. They are strong across the board at every facet of the game. With T.J. Yates at QB though, this will limit the Texans chances to go deep in the playoffs. With this being Houston's first ever home playoff game, I expect them to come out strong, plus the Bengals are 1-6 versus teams with a winning record this year. Kudos for a great season for Marvin Lewis and the Bengals, but it's the end of the road for them in Houston.
Dan: Houston Texans 17, Cincinnati Bengals 14
The first matchup of the 2012 playoffs may contain the least amount of fireworks on paper, but if you like physical, defensive, throwback smash mouth football then this is the game for you. The Texans and Bengals met on December 11th, with the Texans going on a late drive to win 20-19, which was Houston's last victory. The No. 2 rush offense for Houston managed to hang 144 yards on the No. 10 ranked rushing defense that allows an average of 3.9 yards per carry. The Texans boast the No. 3 ranked pass defense this year, and I would expect for Jonathan Joseph to lock up stellar rookie AJ Green. The Bengals just do not have the offensive power to match the Texans defense, and T.J. Yates with Andre Johnson will pull out just enough to get their first playoff win. The pick is the Texans, 17-14.
Steve: Houston Texans 13, Cincinnati Bengals 7
As if it hasn’t been said enough yet, but the only winning team the Bengals have beaten were the Titans. The Texans are playing their 3rd string quarterback in TJ Yates and have lost three straight games and not to mention, the Texans just brought in Jake Delhomme. The Texans will play it close to the vest and not put Yates in a position that could lose them the game. Ultimately, this game should follow closely to the Week 14 game that the Texans won 20-19, with Yates at QB. Look for lots of Foster and just enough Andre Johnson for the Texans to move the chains, while the defense shuts down the Bengals altogether.
Kevin: Houston Texans 14, Cincinnati Bengals 13
The three-game losing streak to close the season is a concern for the Texans. In addition, I worry about the adrenaline of the Texans' players, who may try to do too much in the franchise's first-ever playoff game. That said, the Texans have the league's best running back tandem in Arian Foster and Ben Tate, who combined for more than 2,100 rushing yards on the season. In fact, the duo has nearly 2,900 yards from scrimmage this season. With Andre Johnson able to play more snaps this week than last week, the offense will be a little more dynamic than it's been since T.J. Yates has taken over for the injured Matts. The Texans have the second-best overall defense and the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL, which means that Yates won't have to do too much and the Bengals will struggle to move the ball. I have the Texans winning by one point again as the Bengals were 0-7 against teams that made the playoffs this season.
Soon enough, the Associated Press will announce the winner(s) of various NFL awards. Technically, that will happen on February 4th from 9-11 p.m. on NFL Network.
But why wait one month? I'm going to tell you now which players (and coach) will win the awards. In fact, I'm also going to tell you who the runner up will be as well.
Without further ado, here are my thoughts on who will win each respective award:
One can certainly argue that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, the reigning league MVP, had an MVP-like season. Not only did Brady lead the Patriots to 13 wins and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but he threw for the second-most yards (5,235) in any season in NFL history. That said, the quarterback that threw for the most in NFL history did so this season as well: Saints quarterback Drew Brees (5,476).
As great of a season as Brady had, the MVP voting will likely come down to Brees and Rodgers. Brees threw for more yards than Rodgers (5,476 to 4,643), one more touchdown (46 to 45) and completed a higher percentage of his passes (71.2 to 68.3 percent). In fact, Brees set the single-season mark for completion percentage in addition to 300-yard games (13) as well.
If Rodgers did not sit out Week 17, he would have come close to (or reached) the 5,000-yard mark as Brees, Brady and Detroit's Matthew Stafford did. After all, backup Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns, both of which are franchise records, on Sunday. Perhaps Flynn's great performance is an argument against Rodgers, but Rodgers has been nearly flawless this season and the Packers have won a league-best 15 games.
Rodgers set the NFL record for highest quarterback rating (122.5) and started the season with 12 straight games with a passer rating of 100-plus. In addition, he set the franchise record with 45 passing touchdowns and threw only six interceptions in 502 pass attempts. For the fourth straight season, Rodgers has rushed for at least three touchdowns and 200 yards.
While I think Rodgers will win the MVP (as noted above), I can see Brees taking home the award for Offensive Player of the Year. Rodgers was more efficient (he threw 155 less pass attempts than Brees), but he led the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt (9.2).
Brees was more prolific setting records in passing yards, completions (458) and 300-yard games and leading the league in passing touchdowns. He closed out the season with seven straight 300-yards games and threw a total of 14 touchdown passes in his final three games.
Out of these two players, there is no wrong choice as both have had remarkable seasons and it wouldn't surprise me if we see co-MVPs.
After much internal debate, I am giving the award to Allen. Not only did he just miss out on the single-season sack record with 22 sacks, only four players had more forced fumbles than Allen (four). Allen also had 66 tackles, a safety and an interception for the three-win Vikings.
In the year (2001) that Michael Strahan set the single-season sack record (22.5) with the help of Brett Favre, he won the award.
Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, the team's first-round pick in 2010, came on strong in his second NFL season and finished fourth in the NFL in sacks (16.5). In the final four games of the season when the Giants needed to win, JPP had a sack in every game and a total of six sacks during that span. Of the players with double-digit sacks, no player had more tackles than Pierre-Paul (86).
If I picked a second runner-up, it would be Baltimore's Terrell Suggs. He finished first in forced fumbles (seven), tied for fifth in sacks (14.0) with San Francisco's Aldon Smith and had two interceptions as well. But Suggs had three great games (first game vs. Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Indianapolis). In those three games, Suggs had nine sacks and six forced fumbles. That means that Suggs finished with only five sacks and one forced fumble in his other 13 games this season.
Not only did Newton set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (14) by a quarterback, the rookie signal caller finished third in rushing yards (706) out of all rookies. Only Houston's Ben Tate (942) and Dallas' DeMarco Murray (897) had more.
Aside from his insane rushing statistics as a quarterback, Newton, the first overall pick, threw for 4,051 yards, which set the rookie record and he completed 60.0 percent of his passes. Despite being a rookie quarterback with no OTAs, Newton was one of only five quarterbacks to throw or run for a total of 35 touchdowns in 2011. The other four quarterbacks were Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Stafford. More impressively, Newton is the sole name on the list of players that have thrown for 4,000-plus yards and rushed for 700-plus yards in NFL history.
Related: Sean Beazley, one of our site's main contributors, named Newton as his quarterback MVP in fantasy football (see the rest of his picks) based on draft value. Sean projects Newton as being the fourth quarterback off the board in 2012.
Three other rookies that would be worthy of the award in any other season are Bengals rookies A.J. Green and Andy Dalton as well as Falcons rookie receiver Julio Jones. Green finished with 1,057 yards, which makes him the fourth rookie receiver to finish with 1,000-plus yards since 2000. If Jones had not missed three games, he would have done so as well. Jones finished with 959 yards and his 73.8 yards per game was a few yards better than Green's (70.5) and he had one more touchdown than Green (eight to seven).
49ers rookie Aldon Smith, the seventh overall pick in this year's draft, was only one-half sack away from tying the all-time single-season rookie sack record set by Jevon Kearse in 1999. Smith did not get his first sack of the season until Week 4, which means he finished with 14 sacks in his final 13 games. As noted above, Smith was tied for fifth in the NFL in sacks with Suggs.
Denver's Von Miller also finished in the top ten in sacks with 11.5 this season. Miller had 64 tackles while Smith had only 37 and both had two forced fumbles. The race for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year will be much closer than will the race for the offensive counterpart.
With no offseason, it appeared that the 2011 season would be an uphill battle for any team that had a new head coach or even a new coordinator or two. After all, there was virtually no time to implement new schemes and systems and/or evaluate talent. It seemed as though the teams that had the least amount of turnover would be best-positioned for success in 2011. And that happened with teams like Green Bay, New England and New Orleans all having tremendous success this year.
While there might not have been a huge turnover of player personnel in San Francisco, the 49ers were huge disappointments in 2010, which led to Mike Singletary's dismissal. Harbaugh turned the Niners around and got them to believe in themselves and win 13 games to earn a first-round bye. After all, "nobody" has it better than them. The 49ers ranked first in scoring defense and rushing defense and quarterback Alex Smith posted a 17:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
While Marvin Lewis has been head coach in Cincinnati since , it was a rookie offensive coordinator, quarterback and receiver that helped lead the team to a playoff berth despite playing Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice each per year. Granted they lost all four games to the Ravens and Steelers, but they beat the teams they should have despite plenty of change on the offensive side of the ball. In addition, they lost cornerbacks Jonathan Joseph to free agency and Leon Hall to a season-ending injury in the middle of the season.
Smith (along with New England's Tedy Bruschi) won the AP Comeback Player of the Year award in 2005. Smith played in only one game in 2004 and set career highs in 2005 with 103 receptions, 1,563 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Excluding his rookie season and 2004, Smith never had fewer receptions (46), yards (554) or touchdowns (two) than he had last year. With Newton under center, Smith found a fountain of youth and finished with 79 receptions, 1,394 yards (third-highest total of his career) and seven touchdowns.
After being drafted in the second round in 2010, Ben Tate missed the entire season due to an ankle injury. This year, Tate was only 58 yards shy of 1,000 rushing yards. Tate finished the season with 175 carries for 642 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and four touchdowns. He also had 13 receptions for 98 yards.
Over the next couple of days, we will release predictions of all games during the wild-card round of the playoffs and full playoff predictions including Super Bowl winners.
During that stretch, Bush set his career high with a 203-yard performance against the Bills.
Based on average draft position (ADP) from Yahoo! drafts, Bush was selected just outside the top 100 on average with an ADP of 100.7.
In 2012, Bush will obviously cost you a much higher pick.
Bush finished the season with 1,086 rushing yards, which ranked 11th in the NFL, and it was the first 1,000-yard season of his career. His previous career high was only 581 yards in 2007.
Backup running back Daniel Thomas, the team's second-round pick, finished the season with 581 yards on 165 carries but averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. Thomas missed three games due to injury, but he had double-digit carries in nine games.
In 2012, will Bush rush for 1,000-plus yards for the second time in his career?
With the NFL regular season over, this will be our final Consensus NFL Power Rankings for the 2011 season. From this point, the playoffs determine whether or not the Packers should still be the No. 1 unanimous choice at the top of the power rankings.
Twelve teams have the power to determine their own fate; the other 20 teams can only watch and start rebuilding for 2012 and beyond. And some teams (St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis) have already fired their head coach and/or general manager.
Here are some stats on this week's consensus rankings:
- Biggest jump from last week: San Diego Chargers (+4.75)
- Biggest drop from last week: Oakland Raiders (-3.75)
- Team with widest difference between high and low rank: New York Jets and Oakland Raiders (8)
As part of our weekly power rankings, we will feature one question that all four rankers will answer.
Here is this week's question (followed by our responses): Which wild card team has the best shot to get to (and perhaps win) the Super Bowl?
John (follow John on Twitter): I'd love to say that the Falcons have the best chance to get to the Super Bowl as a wild card. They've really come on and have been playing very well down the stretch. However, the NFC is just too strong, and I don't see either Atlanta or Detroit getting through two or possibly all three of the top three seeds (Packers, 49ers and Saints). Realistically, the Steelers are the wild card team with the best chance to go all the way. They have already beaten the top-seeded Patriots and although they have lost twice to the Ravens, historically the Steelers have been very good against them (including knocking them out of last year's playoffs). The Steelers are good offensively and defensively, and they've certainly been there before. If they are healthy enough, they are the wild card team with the best chance to make the Super Bowl.
Sean (visit Sean's website): I am choosing Pittsburgh even without Mendenhall for the playoffs. It was really a process of elimination. The Bengals have only beat one team over .500 this year and that was the Titans. Detroit is playing the Saints, who look really good, and the Falcons (if they win and if the Saints win) have a date in Green Bay next week. New England and Baltimore are both beatable in the AFC.
Dan (follow Dan on Twitter): It seems that lots of wildcard teams have been making moves into the Super Bowl lately, and the team that will have the best shot to get to and win the SuperBowl would be the Steelers. Pittsburgh is battle-tested and they know what it takes to get to and win the championship. All of the AFC teams have question marks, and if there is a team that is built to win three on the road, I trust Roethlisberger and LeBeau's defense over any of the other wildcards.
Kevin (follow Kevin on Twitter): While I don't think any of the wild card teams will actually make it to the Super Bowl this year, the path of least resistance is through the AFC. Along with the Packers last year, the Steelers are the other team in NFL history that has won the Super Bowl despite being a No. 6 seed. If there's a wild card team that can do it, I'd go with the team that has already done it (recently).
Last night, Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon announced that he will enter the 2012 NFL Draft.
Named the MVP of the Tostito's Fiesta Bowl, Blackmon finished the game with eight receptions for 186 yards and three touchdowns.
On the season, he finished with 121 receptions for 1,522 yards and 18 touchdowns. In the past two seasons combined, Blackmon has totaled 232 receptions for 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns.
Every year we start talking about the first day of the NFL Draft. Which players are going number one, two and three? Where will Andrew Luck end up? Does he deserve to be number one? Will he be a boom or a bust? But we always fail to look at the day three guys, that seventh-round pick, that stretch that your favorite team took that you either couldn’t believe or didn’t even notice because you turned off the draft.
Well, today we will look back at the last ten years drafts and highlight the 10 best players on the last day or final rounds of the draft. Of those players, these are the 10 players I believe have made the biggest impact and have helped their team or another team because of a trade or free agency. These guys are the ones we like to call in the fantasy realm, “sleepers.”
10. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Oregon State (selected with the 204th pick of the 2001 NFL Draft by the Cincinnati Bengals)
He was drafted in a year where Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson (Ochocinco), Drew Brees and many more were drafted. Housh has two 1,000-yard years with six years of 900 or more yards. This says a lot when five of those years were when he was the No. 2 receiver behind Chad Johnson (Ochocinco).
9. Michael Turner RB Northern Illinois (selected with the 154th pick of the 2004 NFL Draft by the San Diego Chargers)
Drafted as a backup for LT, he has truly been a breakout star for the Atlanta Falcons. Turner has four 1,000-yard years with three consecutive years of 1,000 yards or more. He had a career high of 1,699 yards in 2008 and helped the Atlanta Falcons to consecutive winning seasons for the first time in franchise history and playoff berths in three out of the last four years he has been in Atlanta.
8. Matt Cassel, QB, USC (selected with the 230th pick of the 2005 NFL Draft by New England Patriots)
Drafted as the backup for “The Golden Boy,” Cassel's start in Week 2 of the 2008 season was his first start in a game since high school, and he led the Patriots to a win, which extended the Pats' regular-season winning streak record to 21 games before a loss the next week. He led the Pats to an 11-5 record, but failed to make the playoffs. He was traded to the KC Chiefs in 2009.
7. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Harvard (selected with the 250th pick of the 2005 NFL Draft by the St. Louis Rams)
Fitzpatrick took the Wonderlic Test and on the NFL's official website reported that he made a perfect score, while setting a speed record by completing the exam in nine minutes. On September 20, 2010, Fitzpatrick was named the new starting quarterback of the Buffalo Bills and has thrown for over 3,000 yards in each of his two years as a starter.
6. Marques Colston, WR, Hofstra (selected with the 252nd pick of the 2006 NFL Draft by the New Orleans Saints)
As a rookie, Colston had a breakout year with 70 receptions with 1,038 yards and 8 touchdowns. Colston has had 1,000-yard years in five of his six seasons. He helped lead the New Orleans Saints to their first Super Bowl victory in 2010. Colston becomes a free agent in 2012.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Marshall (selected with the 250th pick of the 2007 NFL Draft by the New York Giants)
On December 23, 2007, he scored his first NFL touchdown on an 88-yard run in the 4th quarter against the Buffalo Bills. It was the third-longest run in Giants history and the longest run of the 2007 season. He finished the game with a career-high 151 yards on 17 carries. Bradshaw has been up and down throughout his career, but after a strong 2010 season with 276 carries, 1235 yards and eight touchdowns, he re-signed with the Giants in 2011.
4. Brent Celek, TE, Cincinnati (selected with the 162nd pick of the 2007 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles)
After not being invited to the 2007 NFL Scouting Combine, Celek was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles. In 2008, Celek set franchise records for yards in a game with 131 in Week 9 and receptions in a playoff game with 10 during the 2009 NFC Championship Game. He caught two touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game against the Arizona Cardinals and his 19 catches during the 2008-09 NFL playoffs were the third most in NFL history for a tight end. In 2009, Celek had 76 catches for 978 yards and eight touchdowns.
3. Matt Flynn, QB, LSU (selected with the 209th pick of the 2008 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers)
Matt Flynn is currently listed as the Packers' second-string quarterback, having won the competition for the backup role to Aaron Rodgers beating out fellow rookie and second-round pick Brian Brohm. On December 19, 2010, Flynn made his first NFL start against the New England Patriots. Flynn threw three touchdown passes against New England, but threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown in the second half. The Packers lost the game 31-27. Flynn completed 23 of 37 passes for 254 yards in the loss. On January 1, 2012, after the Packers had already clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and rested most of their starters, Flynn started the final game of the season against the Detroit Lions. He threw for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns in the 45-41 victory, both of which set all-time Green Bay Packers records.
2. Steve Johnson, WR, Kentucky (selected with the 224th pick of the 2008 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills)
Johnson finished his rookie season with 10 receptions for 102 yards and two touchdowns. In 2009, he had a breakout season with 82 receptions, 1073 yards and 10 touchdowns. Following the season, Johnson was named the 2010 Vizio Top Value Performer for being the NFL player who outplayed his salary by the widest margin. In 2011, Johnson's numbers fell a bit, posting 76 receptions for 1,004 yards and seven touchdown receptions. Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent in 2012.
1. Peyton Hillis, RB, Arkansas (selected with the 227th pick of the 2008 NFL Draft by the Denver Broncos)
Hillis rose to the top of the depth chart as the starting fullback for the Broncos before being ushered to the starting position due to injuries to the running back corps. After spending two years in Denver, Hillis was traded to the Cleveland Browns in 2010. After being promoted to starter due to injury, Hillis had a breakout season 2010 with 270 carries for 1,177 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns plus 61 receptions for 477 yards receiving and two touchdowns.
Once again, I can only guess that some will agree with my list and some will disagree, but these are the players I feel have had some of the biggest impacts on their teams after being drafted in the last three rounds of the draft. Thank you for taking the time to read my ramblings and I hope this is one of many more you will read.
Honorable Mentions:
- 2007 NFL Draft with the 153rd pick the New York Giants take Kevin Boss, TE, Western Oregon
- 2009 NFL Draft with the 256th pick the Kansas City Chiefs take Ryan Succop, K, South Carolina
- 2009 NFL Draft with the 173th pick the Tennessee Titans take Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
- 2009 NFL Draft with the 232nd pick the New England Patriots take Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State
- 2010 NFL Draft with the 193rd pick the Green Bay Packers take James Starks, RB, Buffalo
- 2011 NFL Draft with the 148th pick the Oakland Raiders take Denarius Moore, WR, Tennessee
Per Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette, an MRI confirmed that Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall has a torn ACL and Mendenhall will have surgery in the next week or two.
There was no injury to the other parts of the knee (MCL, PCL, meniscus, etc.), according to Bouchette.
Based on average draft position (ADP) from Yahoo! leagues, Mendenhall is the third running back in the top six backs off the board to have suffered a torn ACL this season.
Kansas City's Jamaal Charles suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 and Minnesota's Adrian Peterson suffered a torn ACL in Week 16. The eighth running back off the board, on average, was Oakland's Darren McFadden, whose foot injury kept him out of nine games this season.
Given the minimum timeframe of eight months to recover from the injury, there's a good chance that Mendenhall won't be ready for the start of the 2012 season. Even if he is on the active roster at the start of the season, players usually aren't the same in their first year back from the injury.
In Week 17, Isaac Redman carried the ball 19 times for 92 yards and a touchdown and should get the majority of the carries going forward this postseason.
As the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs, the Steelers face the Broncos this weekend.
For a long time, it was nearly impossible for a wildcard team to make it to the Super Bowl. Over the past several seasons, that has changed as a couple of No. 6 seeds have won the Super Bowl.
As the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs last year, the Green Bay Packers went on to win Super Bowl XLV. As the No. 1 seed this year, they are the clear favorite to repeat as they have been nearly unbeatable (15-1).
This year's field of wildcard teams includes: (AFC) Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals and (NFC) Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons.
As the No. 5 seed in the AFC, the Steelers will face the Broncos this weekend. Meanwhile, the Bengals, as the No. 6 seed, will face the Texans. Coincidentally both home teams this weekend in the AFC playoffs have lost their past three games.
As the No. 5 seed in the NFC, the Falcons will head to New Jersey to take on the Giants. The No. 6 seed, Detroit, will face the Saints, who lost the tie-breaker for a first-round bye with the 49ers, the No. 2 seed.
Later in the week, we will have individual game predictions for all of the playoff matchups in the wildcard round and I'll have my full playoff predictions including a Super Bowl winner. But which road team will get to the big game this year?
The NFL regular season has come to a close and the fantasy football playoffs have concluded. Aligning with the end of the calendar year, it creates a natural time to be reflective on the on the actual year and in this case, the fantasy football year. As you will likely see many such columns in the next few days or week, I’ll add my unique take on it, which will be applying a bit of statistical engineering to illustrate some conclusions that my otherwise seem unlikely.
One quick disclosure, the numbers used are through Week 16 of the NFL season (the typical week for fantasy championships).
At first, I considered 10 items, but realized it would be 10,000 unbearable words, that’s if I can actually think of 10 interesting things to say. Without further ado, a top 3 list of fantasy “learnings “ from 2011:
1. You should have drafted a tight end in the first round – I’m obviously talking about Rob Gronkowski, whose fantasy performance from tight end position is unparalleled. His scoring, when compared to the top 25 players at the position, was nearly three standard deviations above the mean. That’s effectively saying he’s in the 99%. Gronkowski scored 218 points compared to the average of 94 points for the “average tight end,” or about eight points more per game. Let me put it another way, that’s 14.5 points per game compared to just over six points or 225% more production per game. What’s even more impressive is that Jimmy Graham is also having a phenomenal season. Readjusting the numbers by removing Graham and Gronkowski, the standard deviation of the points scored by player falls from approximately 36 to 18. That effectively puts Gronkowski at a six sigma deviation from mean. What that means in English, is that about 3 times out of a million can you get a dispersion of score like we saw with the tight end production. So you get it, Gronkowski (and Graham to a lesser extent) are wicked good, but what makes them better than a top RB like Arian Foster, or QB like Aaron Rodgers? It probably goes without saying, but although Rodgers or Foster have been exceptionally good, the deviation above mean wasn’t as pronounced because of the dispersion of the group. There is no other player were you are getting over 200% production of the “average player.” Not only should Gronkowski have been a first-round pick, he should have been the first pick.
2. Drafting a running back in the first round is like playing Russian roulette. Did anyone really have Marshawn Lynch as top 5 fantasy RB? – The projected top 4 running backs in some order were: Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson. Only two of whom are in the top 5 at their position this season nor is this a unique phenomenon to this year. By nature of the position, running back is the most volatile position. Every year a few of the top guys slip, some substantially, some slightly, while a fresh new crop of running backs break out on emerging teams. This year, LeSean McCoy has busted out to the be the best fantasy running back. Looking back, in 2009 the top 5 running backs were : Chris Johnson, Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rice and Thomas Jones. In 2010 they were: Foster, Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and Peyton Hillis. And this year: McCoy, Rice , Foster, Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch.
The standard rules of fantasy football drafting were RB/RB in the first two rounds for much too long. Certainly , you’ll see people step out to draft a top QB or WR in the first couple of rounds, but not as much as they should. By human nature, we overvalue our ability to predict (or perhaps we are overvaluing the “experts” ability to predict). Although we try to infer beyond what happened last year, it still becomes the first point of reference to estimate a players value in this year. Due to injury, changing team, fleeting ability, etc. the best running backs change over every year. From 2009 to 2010 Thomas Jones went from 5th to 25th. Charles can’t even be found because of the torn ACL early in the season , and Hillis has had all sort of issues and sits around the 35th best running back. That’s not too mention the much bemoaned struggles of Chris Johnson this year (at least he's in the top 20 . . . but barely). So when you are considering the fourth or fifth running back off the board in the first round of draft you may want to consider . . .
3. We continue to undervalue quarterbacks, especially Tom Brady. First a word of disclosure, I’m a Jets fan, so this makes me sick, but the truth is he is the best QB in the NFL or at least in the world of fantasy football. Excluding 2008 when Brady blew out his knee in the first game of the year, he’s averaged 4,400 yards and 35 TDs every year going back 2007. You can’t get that level of consistency from any other player or any other position. If you didn’t have Brady, Drew Brees or Rodgers, you didn’t win your fantasy league this year. As the NFL makes the rules for a more pass-happy league, this is trend that will continue.
Heading into the final week as the NFL's leading rusher, Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew was unlikely to be caught.
When both of the next two leading rushers (Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy and Houston's Arian Foster) were inactive for today's games, it became a certainty.
That said, Jones-Drew saved his best for last as he finished with a season-high 169 rushing yards against the Colts today.
Not only did Jones-Drew close out the season with three straight 100-yard games, but he had at least 80 rushing yards in all but one game this season. No player has had more 80-yard games in a season than MJD.
This was the third straight season with 1,300-plus yards for MJD and he set a career high and franchise record this season (1,606 rushing yards). The previous franchise mark was 1,572 by Fred Taylor (2003). Both Taylor and MJD have three 1,300-yard seasons each.
In addition, Jones-Drew finished with 43 receptions for 374 yards and 11 total touchdowns this season.
With Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers inactive today, backup Matt Flynn got an opportunity to showcase what he can do.
Flynn completed 31 of 44 passes for 480 yards, six touchdowns and one interception as the Packers closed the regular season with 15 wins.
While Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was less efficient (36-for-59), he threw for 520 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions.
In other words, the duo of signal-callers combined for 1,000 passing yards and 11 touchdowns.
After winning the Super Bowl as the No. 6 seed last year, the Packers head into the postseason as the No. 1 seed in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, the Lions will be the sixth seed assuming the Falcons don't blow their 35-0 lead over the Bucs.
The Atlanta Falcons and tight end Tony Gonzalez have agreed to a one-year extension worth $7 million, according to Fox Sports' Jay Glazer (via CBS Sports).
With his 79 receptions through last week, Gonzalez has more receptions than any tight end not named Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski this season. He ranks fourth among tight ends in receiving yards with 867 and has seven touchdowns.
In his career, Gonzalez has four 1,000-yard seasons and the 133 yards he needs would be a season high. But he is only 33 yards shy of 900 yards, which would give him his ninth 900-yard season of his career and first one since 2008.
Gonzalez ranks second all-time in receptions and will be seeking the first playoff win of his 15-year NFL career.
Griffin, this year's Heisman Trophy recipient, has completed more than 72 percent of his passes for nearly 4,300 yards and has a 37:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. In addition, Griffin was second on the team in rushing with 699 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Last year, Griffin threw 3,501 yards, 22 touchdowns and only eight interceptions in addition to rushing for 462 yards and eight touchdowns.
Especially with USC quarterback Matt Barkley returning to school for his senior season, RG3 will be one of the top two quarterbacks selected along with Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.
If your New Years' resolution or goal was to write for us, here are my first two thoughts: (1) you probably should set your sights much higher and (2) we have good news (i.e., openings) for you.
That said, the pay for our contributors is incredibly low (as in nothing). After 90 days, however, we give all contributors a 20-percent raise.
Yes, I know that's still nothing. And, yes, I know that's not really funny.
But we hope to provide you with an opportunity for exposure as our site continues to grow in popularity.
Our plan is to increase our coverage in all sports and we are especially looking for folks that write about the NFL Draft, college football, fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball.
If you're interested, shoot me an e-mail at kevin (at) eatdrinkandsleepfootball (dot) com and let me know what topics you would be interested in writing about.
And if there are existing links to your work, feel free to send those along as well.
