Fantasy Football Friday: Better Fantasy TE in 2012: Gronkowski or Graham?
We are introducing a new feature this (fantasy football) offseason and it's starting today: Fantasy Football Fridays.
Essentially what will happen each Friday (hence the name) is I will pose a question to all EDSFootball.com contributors and will post all the responses to the question in this weekly post.
Of course, you could say that Tuesday is Fantasy Football Tuesday or Sunday is Fantasy Football Sunday since that is our site's primary focus, but just go with it.
For those looking for 2012 fantasy football rankings, our first iteration will be out by the day after Super Bowl XLVI (but likely sooner). After that point, we will update our rankings after the beginning of the free-agent period and after the 2012 NFL Draft as well. Starting in July, they will updated frequently.
Getting back to "Fantasy Football Friday," here is the first question of the year (and the responses):
Which tight end should be drafted first in 2012: Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski?
John (see archives): You really can't go wrong with either one of these guys. This is less like the decision of Ryan Leaf vs. Peyton Manning, where one guy goes down as one of the biggest busts of all time while the other goes on to be one of the best of all time. Instead, this is more like Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady; both are can't-miss players, and if you can't have one, you'd be happy to have the other. Graham promises to be a big part of New Orleans prolific offense moving forward, but Gronkowski promises the same for the Patriots. This past year, both guys caught 90+ balls and scored double digit touchdowns, but Gronkowski scored 17 times, six more than Graham did. For this reason alone, I would go with Gronkowski. Graham is certainly a red zone threat, but Gronkowski is an even bigger one. They will both catch a lot of balls and pile on the yardage, but Gronkowski was virtually unstoppable near the end zone this past year, and until teams start proving they can cover him, Gronk looks like the strongest fantasy TE in the game.
Sean (visit his site): Gronkowski's and Graham's numbers this year are very similar, and the toughest thing to predict is touchdowns. New England suprisingly has more rushing TDs than New Orleans this season 18-16 despite New Orleans clearly having the better RBs. I think this will change next year as Mark Ingram gets another year under his belt. I'm drafting Gronkowski a tad earlier than Graham, but I think both go mid-2nd to early-3rd next year.
Dan (follow on Twitter): Next years number one TE selection is going to be very difficult. With the numbers Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham put up, you should treat them as top echelon wideouts. Gronkowski put up 90 catches for 1327 yards and 17 TDs, while Graham compiled 99 catches for 1310 yards and 11 TDs. I would take Gronkowski as the first TE as he will have more touchdowns given Brees penchant to spread the ball around.
Steve (see archives): I could write 500 words on why Gronkowski should have been the first overall pick (and have), let alone the first tight end taken this year; however, we are forecasting to next year, which is the proverbial "horse of a different color" and ironically I'd take Graham over Gronkowski next year. The reasons why have to do more with the environment, than the player himself. This year, another New England tight end, Aaron Hernadez was the fifth-best in fantasy at the position and is set to steal some targets from Gronkowski next year. That combined with how good Gronkonski was this year, there is bound to be some regression, especially with coaches gameplanning more against him. Historically great seasons (i.e., Brady and Moss in 07) come back to their historical average the following year. Expect a good year from both, but I like Graham's chances to get better next year still.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): In NFL history, there have been five tight ends that have finished with 90-plus receptions, 1,000-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. Two of them did it in 2011: Graham and Gronkowski. In fact, both tight ends finished with more than 1,300 yards, which are the two best all-time performances by a tight end. So, in other words, you can't go wrong either way, but I would take Gronkowski if I had the choice. While touchdowns are (more) difficult to predict, Gronkowski has 27 receiving touchdowns in the past two seasons. Only Detroit's Calvin Johnson (28) has more and only two other players have at least 20: Green Bay's Greg Jennings (21) and Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe (20).
Although January 13th will be the next "Fantasy Football Friday," feel free to stop by before then. Keep track of our updates via Facebook.
FYI: All five of us made final score predictions for this weekend's playoff games.