Hanson: Full Playoff Predictions including Super Bowl XLVI Pick
Earlier in the week, five EDSFootball.com contributors predicted the final score for all four games during wild-card weekend. Of the four games, two were consensus picks: Saints over Lions and Texans over Bengals.
Yesterday, John Trifone made his full playoff prediction including his winner of Super Bowl XLVI.
Now it's my turn.
Here are my picks for the full playoffs from this point:
NFC
Wild-Card Round:
(3) Saints over (6) Lions (see our picks and rationale)
(5) Falcons over (4) Giants (see our picks and rationale)
Divisional Round:
(1) Packers over (5) Falcons
(3) Saints over (2) 49ers
NFC Championship Game (historical results): (3) Saints over (1) Packers
Could the team with the best regular-season record, likely MVP (see my award predictions) and best odds to win the Super Bowl be one-(win)-and-done in the playoffs? Perhaps it's coincidental, but the last time a team with the best record in the regular season won the Super Bowl was after the 2003 season when the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVIII. That is not why I'm picking the Saints over the Packers, but it's an interesting stat.
Granted the Saints would have a better shot of winning this game if it were in New Orleans, but Brees and the Saints have as high powered of an offense as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The difference is the Saints offense is more versatile. New Orleans ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing offense (132.9 yards per game). Green Bay has the sixth-worst rushing offense (97.4 YPG). Brees has a seven-game streak of 300-plus passing yards and here is his line during that span: 71.6 completion percentage, 2,472 passing yards (353.1 per game), 124.3 passer rating and a 25:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
AFC
Wild-Card Round:
(3) Texans over (6) Bengals (see our picks and rationale)
(5) Steelers over (4) Broncos (see our picks and rationale)
Divisional Round:
(1) Patriots over (5) Steelers
(2) Ravens over (3) Texans
AFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Patriots over (2) Ravens
As we have seen through the regular season, the Ravens have been a much better team at home than on the road: 8-0 (home) and 4-4 (road). On the other hand, we know how tough the Tom Brady-led Patriots are to beat at home. The Ravens defense is as good as it gets and Brady has not played great against them. In five games (counting their playoff loss two years ago) against Baltimore, Brady has completed only 55.9 percent of his passes (104 of 186) for 226.6 YPG and has thrown as many interceptions (six) as touchdowns (six). That said, I think this game comes down to the last possession and Brady pulls out the victory in Foxboro.
Super Bowl XLVI (historical results): Saints over Patriots
Coincidentally, the Saints ranked sixth in the league in rushing offense when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. I think their offensive balance and ability to play the Super Bowl in a dome (Indianapolis) makes them nearly impossible to defend. Then again, nearly every team has been difficult to defend for the Patriots, especially their defensive backs. When it comes to offense, the difference between Brady and Brees and Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham is negligible. This game has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls ever, but I have more faith in the Saints' ability to make a stop or two when needed than I have in New England's. The Saints will win, 35-27.
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