2013 Fantasy Football Profile and Projection: Falcons RB Steven Jackson

Often we see talented players that spend all of their careers with a losing team join a legitimate contender near the end of the career for the chance to win a title.

After voiding the final year of his contract with the Rams, running back Steven Jackson signed a three-year deal with the Falcons and recently said that he wants "to go out on top."

Tied with the Broncos, the Falcons had the best record (13-3) in football, but they lost to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game last year. Perhaps the addition of Jackson helps them go deeper into the postseason this year.

While Jackson joins a team that should have more success than his former team, he also moves to an improved situation from a fantasy football perspective.

The Falcons have one of the league's most potent passing attacks. Setting career highs across the board, Matt Ryan finished fifth in the NFL in passing yardage (4,719 yards). Plus, the team has one of the most talented trios of pass-catchers in the NFL with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

The Rams improved their passing offense this offseason by drafting wide receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey and signing free-agent left tackle Jake Long. That said, Jackson has long been the primary focus of the Rams' offense (and of the defenses they faced). Facing many eight-men fronts, Jackson has averaged only 4.23 yards per carry in his career in St. Louis.

Beginning with his second season (2005) in the league, Jackson has a streak of eight consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 rushing yards. Only four running backs, all enshrined in Pro Football's Hall of Fame, have more 1,000-yard seasons: Emmitt Smith (11), Curtis Martin (10), Walter Payton (10) and Barry Sanders (10).

Back in 2006, Jackson had one of the best seasons ever for a running back. That year, he rushed for 1,528 yards, had 90 receptions for 806 yards and scored 16 touchdowns. While he will never approach 90 receptions again, Jackson is a very capable receiver out of the backfield and has finished with at least 38 receptions every season since 2005.

As productive as Jackson has been from a yardage and receiving standpoint, he has not had many goal-line opportunities within the Rams offense. Since scoring double-digit touchdowns in 2005 and 2006, Jackson has failed to hit that mark again. Over the past four seasons, he has scored a total of 20 touchdowns (19 rushing and one receiving), which ties him for 66th in the NFL during that span.

More opportunities should be available for Jackson in the Falcons' high-powered offense. Ex-Falcons running back Michael Turner, who was released early this offseason, ranks third on that list with 44 total touchdowns over the past four seasons. In fact, Turner has rushed for double-digit touchdowns in all five of his seasons in Atlanta.

The biggest concern with Jackson, who turns 30 years old in July, is the cumulative tread on the tires. No active running back has more carries than Jackson (2,395). Broncos running back Willis McGahee (1,957) ranks second on that list.

While I don't expect Jackson to break down in his age-30 season, we have seen other highly productive backs like Shaun Alexander have a precipitous and unexpected drop in production as they approach that age. With good health, however, Jackson could have his best season since 2006.

Fantasy Strength of Schedule

Based on the cumulative fantasy points allowed by their opponents from Week 1 to 16, Jackson and his fellow Falcons' running backs have the league's eighth-most favorable schedule in standard-scoring leagues. In point-per-reception (PPR) formats, they have a top-five schedule.

Unfortunately for Jackson and his fantasy owners, however, he faces the tough 49ers run defense in Week 16.

- Resources: Fantasy RB Strength of Schedule | 2013 Falcons Team Schedule

Projection: (Rushing) 245 Attempts, 1,078 Yards, 11 Touchdowns; (Receiving) 35 Receptions, 287 Yards, 1 Touchdown

- More 2013 Fantasy Football profiles and projections





Check Out the Most Recent Posts on The Daily Blitz

Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch to end his holdout Jul 31, 2014
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Per Day (July 30th): 10 teams, 2-QB League, PPR, No. 4 pick Jul 30, 2014
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Per Day (July 29th): 12 teams, No. 1 pick Jul 29, 2014
Pats WR Aaron Dobson had permanent screw inserted in March foot surgery Jul 29, 2014
2014 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft: Round 10 Jul 28, 2014
Fantasy Football ADP (July 28th Update): Biggest Weekly Risers/Fallers Jul 28, 2014
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Per Day (July 28th): 16 teams, No. 3 pick, PPR Jul 28, 2014
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings agree to 5-year extension Jul 27, 2014
2014 Fantasy Football Profile: Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart Jul 27, 2014
Jaguars WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring) will miss a couple of weeks Jul 26, 2014


TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/blog-mt/mt-tb.fcgi/3892

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)






FanDuel Week 1 NFL Contests
Win money playing fantasy football. Week 1 NFL FanDuel contests are live:

-> NFL Kickoff: $100K in prizes; $10,000 to 1st
-> NFL Rush: $50K prize pool; $5,000 to 1st
-> Join my free league for bragging rights only