Fantasy Football Dynasty Mock Draft: Round 1 Completed
Before the 2013 NFL Draft, we completed two fantasy football mock drafts (standard scoring first and then point-per-reception (PPR) scoring) for re-draft leagues.
With the draft behind us, we will do more re-draft mocks in the near future.
For the first time this offseason, however, we have begun a dynasty mock draft. With this mock, we will be making our picks via a slow draft, but I will update the picks (and add commentary) as they are made.
Scoring for this mock draft is standard scoring and a half-point per reception. Passing touchdowns are worth four points and rushing and receiving scores are worth six points. In addition, one point is earned for every 25 passing yards, 10 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards.
Like with our other mocks, four of our contributors will draft for three teams per round.
Here are the picks that have been made thus far in our fantasy football dynasty mock:
Johnson is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver regardless of scoring format (dynasty vs. re-draft, standard vs. PPR scoring, etc.). Without question, he should be the first wide receiver selected in this mock.
After becoming only the second receiver in NFL history to finish with at least 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns in the same season in 2011, Megatron broke Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yards (1,964) record last year.
In his past 20 games counting the playoffs, he has five 200-yard games. Stated differently, he has 200-plus yards in one-quarter of his past 20 games.
With all that said, should he be the first player selected overall?
While I would personally take Adrian Peterson at this spot, I can see the logic in taking Johnson here.
Sean either takes him here or doesn't draft him. Ever. If he wants Megatron on his roster, he has to take him here.
Even though Peterson is a physical freak in his own right, he will turn 30 years old in less than 23 months. In addition, he is only 246 carries away from reaching 2,000 for his career. Those are numbers that worry me some (read: a lot) with a running back.
Meanwhile, the 27-year-old Johnson should have roughly five more dominant seasons and a few good ones on top of that. Turning 34 years old in the middle of last season, Reggie Wayne finished with 106 receptions and 1,355 yards.
A 1,300-yard rusher at 34 years old is not going to happen. Well, it has happened ... once. Only once and 30 years ago.
1.02 - Brendan Donahue (Team 1): Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
In re-draft leagues, Peterson is a no-brainer as the top running back (and top overall pick). As stated above, I would personally draft him first overall in this mock, but several owners may prefer a younger option at running back over Peterson.
Less than one year removed from a torn ACL, Peterson, the league's Most Valuable Player, nearly set the NFL single-season rushing record with the second-highest output of all-time (2,097 yards). In fact, almost 1,600 of those yards and 10 touchdowns came in the final 10 games of the season.
Shooting for 2,500 rushing yards this season, that goal seems somewhat less absurd after what he accomplished last year at less than 100 percent.
Rookie running backs (in addition to quarterbacks) had a ton of success in 2012. While Alfred Morris ranked second in the league in rushing, it was actually Doug Martin that ranked second in yards from scrimmage among running backs.
Only Peterson (2,314) had more than rushing and receiving yards than The Muscle Hamster (1,926), a three-down back.
Although Foster rushed for 1,424 yards last year, that was a moderate disappointment. Leading the league in carries (351), Foster finished sixth in the league in rushing and averaged a career-low 4.1 yards per carry in 2012. That said, he rushed for a season-high 15 scores.
A workhorse back, Foster has been relatively durable despite the workload and now has three straight seasons of 1,200-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns.
From a dynasty standpoint, however, Foster's cumulative workload in a short timeframe is my biggest concern. Over the past three seasons including the playoffs, Foster has 1,243 touches (1,061 carries and 182 receptions), which averages to nearly 415 touches per season.
Over the past three seasons, only Darren Sproles (220) has more receptions than Rice (200). The only player with more yards from scrimmage than Rice (5,465) during that span was Foster (5,702). Along with Peterson (5,062), only three backs have 5,000-plus YFS in the past three years.
With Rice, however, there is some concern with the presence of Bernard Pierce, a talented back in his own right.
Had you told me there would be two 1,000-yard rookie running backs at the beginning of last season, I would have thought for sure that T-Rich would be one of them. He wasn't. Part of the problem was health, however, as Richardson dealt with injuries (ribs and knee) for much of the year.
In dynasty leagues, Richardson, who turns 23 in July, is my third-ranked running back behind only Peterson and Martin.
While he fell short of 1,000 yards (950) and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, he scored 12 total touchdowns and was one of only seven backs with 50-plus receptions. Provided he stays relatively healthy during his sophomore campaign (and beyond), he has a legitimate shot to be a top-five fantasy back in 2013 (and beyond).
The 2012 season was a huge disappointment for McCoy (and the Eagles as well). Following a monster season of 1,309 rushing yards and a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns in 2011, McCoy set a career low with two rushing scores and missed four games due to a concussion last year.
As the team begins the Chip Kelly era, it will be interesting to see exactly how his offense translates to (and is modified for) the NFL. While I don't think we ever see 17 rushing touchdowns from McCoy again, he should finish with 1,600 to 1,800 yards from scrimmage and around 60 receptions this year.
Although McCoy is entering his fifth season, he won't turn 25 years old until July.
If I could have any quarterback in fantasy, my preference would be Rodgers. He's a lock to finish in the top three in fantasy points among players at the position. That said, I'd prefer to wait on quarterback in dynasty or re-draft leagues.
Despite the gaudy stats by some other quarterbacks, Rodgers has never thrown more than 552 pass attempts, which is a career high that he set last season. That ranked tenth in the NFL last year. Matthew Stafford threw it almost 200 more times than Rodgers. That said, ARod has an 84-to-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the past two seasons combined.
Clearly, Sean has a different strategy than the other three drafters and it will interesting to see how the draft ultimately plays out. Up to this point, there have been six running backs selected (none by Sean) and three non-running backs (all drafted by Sean).
In his breakout season, it was pedal to the medal for Bryant from Week 4 on. In his final eight games last year, he had 50 receptions for 879 yards and 10 touchdowns. That final-half pace would have led to a season with a stat line of 100/1,758/20. While I don't expect those numbers for Bryant in 2013, he has said his goal is a 2,000-yard and 20-touchdown season.
Until my latest update, Bryant was my No. 2-ranked wide receiver in re-draft leagues, but I bumped A.J. Green up in front of him (see rankings). For me, it is more of a 2 and 2(a) with Green and Bryant in re-draft leagues.
From a longer-term perspective, however, I worry some about the other stuff interfering with Bryant's ability to live up to his potential. He has had some issues off the field (like getting banned from a mall) and plays with a reckless abandon, which could lead to more injuries. In my dynasty rankings, Bryant is behind Megatron, Green and Atlanta's Julio Jones.
One of the league's most dangerous backs, Spiller had a breakout season as he set career highs with 1,244 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 459 receiving yards and eight total touchdowns.
Along with Peterson, Spiller was the only running back to average at least six yards per carry last season (6.01). Even though he ranked 22nd in rush attempts (207), the former first-round pick ranked second in the league in runs of 20-plus yards (12) behind Peterson.
With a new coaching staff in place and Fred Jackson now 32 years old, Spiller should see a larger workload in 2013 and beyond.
When Brendan was on the clock, my thought was that I would the running back out of Spiller and Charles that he did not take.
Charles ran for 1,509 yards on 285 carries, both of which were career highs, last season. While I wouldn't expect Charles to see a repeat of the 285 carries under Andy Reid, I do expect him to get more than the 35 receptions he had last year. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if he came close to the career high in YFS (1,935) he set back in 2010.
1.12 - Dan Yanotchko (Team 3): A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Green has had about as good of a start to his young NFL career as any receiver has had.
The sky is the limit for the 24-year-old receiver, who has a total of 162 receptions for 2,407 yards and 18 touchdowns combined in his first two seasons. He even has another 91 yards rushing as well.
If both Spiller and Charles had been off the board before my previous pick, I would have selected Green.
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