2013 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft: Round 1 Completed
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We began a new Fantasy Football mock draft using point-per-reception (PPR) scoring yesterday and we will post the results (with comments) of the picks as they are made.
Round 1 is now complete and here are the results:
What Peterson did in 2012 was nothing short of amazing!
Returning from a torn ACL near the end of 2011 and playing through a sports hernia down the stretch last season, Peterson nearly broke the single-season rushing record despite opposing defenses knowing exactly what was coming.
During the final 10 games of the season, Peterson, the league's MVP, rushed for 1,598 yards and 10 touchdowns in addition to catching 20 passes for 88 yards and a score. He averaged 6.80 yards per carry and nearly 160 yards rushing per game during that stretch.
While his 2,097 rushing yards was the highest total of the 2000's, what he did in 10 games (again, 1,598 rushing yards) would have ranked as the 25th-highest total (as a full season) since 2000.
In addition, Peterson rushed for 100-plus yards in nine of those 10 final regular-season games and had at least 199 rushing yards three times.
During that span, the passing game was so anemic (everyone say, "how anemic was it?") that Peterson gained more on the ground than Christian Ponder (1,501 passing yards) had through the air. With the additions of Greg Jennings (via free agency) and Cordarrelle Patterson (NFL Draft), the Vikings should have a more viable passing attack to take some pressure off Peterson.
The Muscle Hamster started slowly, but he finished fifth in the NFL in rushing (1,454 yards). The only player to rush for more yards in Tampa Bay franchise history was James Wilder (1,544 yards in 1984).
Not only did Martin finish fifth in rushing, but he also finished fifth among running backs in receiving yards (472) on 49 receptions. Even better, the only running back with more yards from scrimmage than Martin (1,926) was Peterson (2,314).
While I would prefer Peterson over Martin, some including Sean, have that order reversed.
First, let's start with the negatives and there are three things that have fantasy owners worried: (1) his career-low 4.1 yards-per-carry average last year, (2) his cumulative workload over the past three years and (3) the ailments that currently have him on the Active/PUP list.
Over the past three seasons counting the playoffs, Foster had a total of 1,243 touches (1,061 carries and 182 receptions), which averages to nearly 415 touches per season. Should fantasy owners attribute that workload to his 4.1 YPC average last year or to his calf strain and sore back that has kept him out of practice?
Maybe, maybe not. We'll see.
But no player has more yards from scrimmage (5,702) or touchdowns (47) than Foster has over the past three seasons combined. (Those numbers don't include his playoff totals.)
In each of those three seasons, he has 1,200-plus rushing yards and double-digit scores each season and he led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (15) last year.
From a game-to-game standpoint, he's been consistently productive as well.
Based on PPR scoring, Foster has single-digit fantasy points only three times over the past three seasons. In fact, he has three times as many (nine games) with 30-plus fantasy points. He has more games with 20-plus fantasy points (25) than games with less than 20 points (20) during that span.
Spiller rushed for 1,244 yards despite getting only 207 carries and he finished with 43 receptions for 459 yards. Along with Peterson, he was the only other 1,000-yard rusher that averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry. Assuming a larger workload in 2013 under new coach Doug Marrone, Spiller should have a realistic shot at getting 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage.
But the team's website recently upped the ante and discussed the possibility of Spiller becoming the next 2,000-yard rusher with the possibility of up to 30 touches per game.
Finishing fourth in the league in rushing (1,509 yards) last season, Charles took an interesting path to get there. Charles had two games with more than 225 rushing yards and a total of seven games with at least 100 yards. That said, he also had three games with 10 yards or less. Coincidentally, both of his 200-yard games were preceded by one of those games of 10 or less yards.
Playing in Andy Reid's offense, Charles should see his reception totals increase, perhaps significantly, based on comments from Charles and offensive coordinator Doug Pederson. He has never had more than 45 receptions in a season, but I would be shocked if he had less than 50 this year.
Although he left practice on Monday with a foot injury, Charles is considered "day to day" and might even return to practice on Wednesday.
The 2012 season was a huge disappointment for McCoy (and the Eagles as a team). Following a monster season of 1,309 rushing yards and a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns in 2011, McCoy set a career low with two rushing scores and missed four games due to a concussion last year.
As the team begins the Chip Kelly era, it will be interesting to see exactly how his offense translates to (and is modified for) the NFL. While I don't think we ever see 17 rushing touchdowns from McCoy again, he should finish with at least 1,600 to 1,800 yards from scrimmage and around 60 receptions this year.
There was some debate here about going with a running back due to position scarcity, but it was too hard to resist Megatron in a PPR format.
In 2011, Johnson became only the second receiver in NFL history to finish with at least 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns in the same season. The first to do it was Randy Moss (2003).
Last season, Johnson broke Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yards record in Week 16. He ended the season with a new-record 1,964 yards despite playing with three broken fingers.
In his past 20 games counting the team's playoff loss in 2011, he has five 200-yard games. Stated differently, he has 200-plus yards in one-quarter of his past 20 games.
No receiver can take over a game like Megatron and if there's anyone that can break more of Rice's (or his own) receiving records in the future, it's Johnson.
Over the past three seasons, only Darren Sproles (220) has more receptions than Rice (200). The only player with more yards from scrimmage than Rice (5,465) during that span was Foster (5,702). Along with Peterson (5,062), only three backs have 5,000-plus YFS in the past three years.
With Rice, however, there is some concern about the presence of Bernard Pierce, a talented back in his own right. One of the league's most talented backups, Pierce is expected to get a larger share of the workload this year.
Quick: List all of the running backs that rushed for double-digit TDs and had 50-plus receptions last year.
If you started (and ended) your list with Richardson, you'd be correct. Despite having a (relatively) disappointing season, T-Rich rushed for 11 touchdowns, caught another and hauled in a total of 51 receptions.
Slowed by an assortment of injuries (knee, ribs, etc.), Richardson failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season.
Provided he stays relatively healthy, his overall fantasy production should be an uptick with the heavy workload envisioned for him by the coaching staff. New offensive coordinator Norv Turner has suggested that his target is 300 carries this season.
This was a tough call for me as I strongly considered Matt Forte, who is my next-ranked fantasy running back.
Forte would be worth the pick here, but Graham is an absolute stud at a position that has depleted depth for a variety of reasons: Aaron Hernandez (jail), Dennis Pitta (hip injury) and Rob Gronkowski (back/arm surgeries).
Graham himself had offseason wrist surgery — and the wrist bothered him all of last season. With better health in 2013, Graham's numbers should be closer to 2011 (99/1,310/11) than 2012 (85/982/9).
1.11 - Brendan Donahue (Team 3): Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
Although he set his career highs as a rookie with 1,715 yards from scrimmage (YFS) and 12 total touchdowns, Forte has had five straight seasons with 1,400-plus YFS. If it weren't for a knee injury that forced him out of the final four games of 2011, he might have reached 2,000 YFS. (He was on pace for 1,983 that year.)
Playing in Trestman's offense, I expect Forte to set new career highs in YFS and/or receptions in 2013. Recently, NFL.com's Bucky Brooks wrote that "it is very possible" that Forte becomes the second player to rush for 1,000 yards and catch 100 balls in the same season.
With back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to begin his professional career, Green set career highs across the board last year with 97 receptions for 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Only Marques Colston (168) has more receptions than Green (162) over the first two seasons of an NFL career. Green ranks sixth in receiving yards (2,407) over the first two seasons on an NFL career.
As he looks to build on the strong start to his NFL career, the sky is the limit for Green.