Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)
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Here are my Week 4 NFL picks against the spread:
New York Jets +4 (over Tennessee Titans)
I was a bit surprised when this line came out, as I expected it to be 2.5-3 points.
The Jets defense is good, and Geno Smith and the receivers have been better than expected. The Titans defense has also been playing well, and Tennessee is off to a surprising 2-1 start. I expect a somewhat defensive game and the fewer points scored favors the team getting points.
I'll take the four to the Jets. This would be a 4-unit bet (on a scale of five units).
San Francisco 49ers -4 (over St. Louis Rams)
I don't like violating my rule of betting on small road dogs, but I'm going to do it here. I like the Rams and believe they're better than they've played so far. Unfortunately for them, they have a tough schedule, having to have played at Atlanta and at Dallas the last two weeks.
They return home for Thursday Night Football, but it doesn't get any easier, with a desperate 49ers team coming to St. Louis. Last year, the Giants went into San Francisco and beat them 26-3 in Week 6. San Francisco went on to win the division and make the Super Bowl.
After back-to-back poor performances, I'm betting on the Niners to come back big and even their record to 2-2. I think the defense in particular is going to step up, so I will give the four on the road. This would be a 5-unit bet.
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Atlanta Falcons -2 (over New England Patriots)
Last year, I thought the Falcons were one of the more overrated teams in the league. This year, the Patriots get that distinction. They did finally cover a game against a pathetic Buccaneer team at home, but the Patriots are 1-2 so far ATS with an absolute cupcake schedule.
Outside of Seattle, Atlanta may be the league's biggest home-field advantage. Matt Ryan doesn't often lose there, and against a Patriot offense that is still trying to put everything together, I'll take the Falcons -2. This would be a 5-unit bet.
Five of our contributors make three weekly picks ATS every week and they will be posted here.