Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)
Here are my Week 6 NFL picks against the spread:
Baltimore Ravens +3 (over Green Bay Packers)
As a group, the Ravens offense has been inconsistent and banged up, but the Packers defense will be missing its best pass-rusher in Clay Matthews (thumb) this week — and for several more after that.
With a depleted receiving corps last week, the Ravens focused on getting Ray Rice more involved as he carried it 27 times and scored two touchdowns against the Dolphins. Although Rice is averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry, he is still one of the most dynamic running backs in the league.
In addition, Torrey Smith ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards (556) behind Jimmy Graham (593) and Julio Jones (580), who is out for the year, and has been a consistent performer every week. Smith has yet to have less than 85 receiving yards in any game.
While the Packers have one of the league's most explosive offenses led by Aaron Rodgers and talented receivers like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, they have tried to establish a balanced attack with rookie Eddie Lacy. It will be tough to run the ball on the Ravens, who have limited opposing RBs to the fewest fantasy points in the league this year.
Over the past five-plus seasons, the Ravens are 35-7 at M&T Stadium, where they enjoy one of the league's best home-field advantages. With that history on my side, it's hard to pass up an opportunity to take the Ravens and points in Baltimore.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (over Philadelphia Eagles)
Two of the things I like to pick when picking games against the spread are: (1) home 'dogs and (2) teams coming off a bye.
While the Bucs certainly have their share of problems, they meet both of these conditions and I think they get their first win of the season at home against a team with its own share of problems.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs have done their fair share to help the team win games (or a game). They rank eighth in the NFL in scoring defense (17.5 points per game allowed) and once again have one of the league's best rush defenses (94.3 yards per game allowed, ninth-best in league).
Although their passing defense has been in the middle of the pack in terms of yardage, they rank sixth in the league in sacks per game (4.25) and are tied for fourth in the league in interceptions per game (1.5).
Of course, their offense has struggled and they still will have rookie Mike Glennon under center. That said, I expect a better performance from Doug Martin, who leads the NFL in carries (100) despite playing only four games, and Vincent Jackson is healthy after playing Week 4 through his ribs injury. The Eagles pass defense is more than suspect as they have allowed 326.0 yards per game, third-worst in the NFL.
Then again, if all else fails, perhaps they can resort to this.
Washington Redskins +6 (over Dallas Cowboys)
Like the Bucs, Washington is coming off a bye as the Cowboys are coming off a disappointing high-profile loss.
Sure the Cowboys went toe-to-toe with the league's most potent offense, but there are no moral victories in football despite what Jerry Jones might say.
One of the things the Redskins will have to do better is virtually everything on defense. As bad as the Redskins defense has been, the Cowboys offense has been equally as good. No team has allowed more yards per game than the Redskins (440.5 YPG allowed) and only the Broncos have scored more points than the Cowboys this season.
Only Peyton Manning has a higher passer rating than Tony Romo, who threw for a career-high 506 yards last week, DeMarco Murray ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing (399) and Dez Bryant has scored six touchdowns in the past four games.
For the Redskins, they have an almost as good matchup to exploit as the Cowboys rank 31st in the NFL in passing defense (326.4) and no team has allowed more passing touchdowns (14) this season. Look for Robert Griffin III to continue to shake off the rust and put up some points against the Cowboys.
Washington may not win this game, but I expect them to score with the Cowboys and to keep it closer than the spread. And as Sean pointed out with his picks, Washington is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games in Big D.
Five of our contributors make three weekly picks ATS every week and they will be posted here.
Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings:
- Week 6 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
- Week 6 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
- Week 6 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
- Week 6 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Salary-Cap Analysis: