Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em for Week 11
Going into the Thursday Night Football matchup, Colts running back Donald Brown had been more productive than teammate Trent Richardson — and that trend only continued in a big way last night in primetime.
Brown carried the ball 14 times for 80 yards and scored twice while Richardson had eight carries for just 22 yards. TRich did add five receptions for 31 yards, but he has a mere 44 rushing yards in his past three games since the team's bye.
Since the Colts gave up their 2014 first-rounder for him, Richardson has only 388 yards from scrimmage in eight games. During that span, Richardson is averaging only 2.83 yards per carry on 96 attempts.
While he may not be dropped (yet) in your league(s), it's hard to imagine Richardson making it into (m)any starting lineups going forward until, or if, he turns things around. In addition, Brown is now ranked ahead of Richardson in my rest-of-season rankings.
Looking ahead to the rest of the games this week, here are some players to consider starting in Week 11:
QB - Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. MIN)
Fifth among quarterbacks this season in fantasy points scored, Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive games after only accomplishing that feat in two of his first six games this season. While he has only one rushing touchdown this season, Wilson ranks second at the position in rushing yards (395) this year.
Not only will Wilson get better protection from a healthier offensive line, but the team's most dangerous and dynamic wideout, Percy Harvin, will make his season debut against his former team even he's on a snap count.
Speaking of Harvin's former team, the only team to allow more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Vikings this season are the Cowboys, who are on bye this week. The Vikings have allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven of nine games this season including their past three games.
QB - Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. WAS)
Not only does he have a phenomenal 16 touchdowns and no interceptions this season, 10 of his touchdown passes have come in the past two weeks alone. Even though he has only 136 pass attempts on the season, only seven quarterbacks have thrown more touchdowns this year.
Fortunately for Foles and his fantasy owners, he gets a favorable matchup this week against the Redskins, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Over their past three games, they have allowed 305.3 passing yards and eight touchdowns.
QB - Case Keenum, QB, Houston Texans (vs. OAK)
Earlier this week, Keenum made his way to my waiver-wire list as he was only 29-percent owned in Yahoo! leagues at the time. While his ownership has increased, he is still currently available in slightly more than half of all leagues.
In his three starts, all of which were against teams that rank in the top half of fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, Keenum is averaging 274 passing yards per game and has compiled a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio. In addition, Keenum has thrown three touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. Getting his most favorable fantasy matchup as a starter, Keenum is a low-end QB1 this week.
RB - Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers (at MIA)
Even though he has yet to rush for more than 36 yards in any game this season, Woodhead is a huge threat as a receiver out of the backfield. Scoring nine or more fantasy points in five of his past six games, Woodhead has 53 receptions and is tied with Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson for 10th in the league. In addition to his 53 catches, he has 628 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns.
Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Since Week 3, the Dolphins have allowed a running back to rush for a touchdown every week and have allowed a team's running back corps to score 20-plus fantasy points in six of their past seven games.
RB - Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at JAX)
Depending on his workload, Ellington has the potential for a huge week against the Jaguars in Week 11. That said, he had only 13 touches after coach Bruce Arians indicated that he wanted to get the ball into his hands 20 times. On the season, Ellington is averaging more than seven yards per carry and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
The Jags have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
RB - Andre Brown, New York Giants (vs. GB)
The Giants did not ease Brown into action last week as they gave him 30 carries in his season debut against the Raiders. Only two players have had games with more carries this season. With a heavy workload, Brown was able to rush for 115 yards and score a touchdown. While I don't expect 30-plus carries again in Week 11, Brown should come close to (or exceed) 20 carries this week.
The Packers defense has been middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, but they surrended 150 and 166 rushing yards to backs in the past two weeks. Those are their two highest totals all season.
RB - Ben Tate, Houston Texans (vs. OAK)
With Arian Foster on injured reserve, it's up to Tate to carry the load for the Texans although he continues to play through his rib injury. After starting the season strong on a yards-per-carry basis, Tate has averaged less than four yards per carry in each of his past four games.
I'm not as high as some others on Tate this week, but he should get a decent workload and has upside against a defense that allowed Brown to rush for 115 yards and a score last week. I have him ranked inside my top 20 running backs this week.
WR - Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (vs. BAL)
Over his past six games, Jeffery has scored double-digit fantasy points five times and has gone over 100 yards in four of those games including his franchise-record 218 yards. During that stretch, Jeffery has 34 receptions for 631 yards and three touchdowns. Only A.J. Green and Megatron have more yards during that span.
Only four teams have allowed more yards per reception than the Ravens (12.7) this season. In addition, the Ravens have allowed four 100-yard receivers in their past five games.
WR - Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. ATL)
Jackson has had a couple of disappointing performances in recent weeks, but his best performance of the season came in his first matchup against the Falcons. In Week 7 in Atlanta, Jackson had 10 receptions for 138 yards and two touchdowns. While I don't expect a repeat 25-point performance, he should get a ton of targets and has a good chance to end his three-game TD drought.
The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season and have allowed multiple TDs to WRs in three of their past four games.
WR - Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns (at CIN)
With inconsistent numbers on a game-to-game basis, Gordon has two games with 44 yards or less over the past three weeks. That said, Gordon is one of the league's most talented receivers and has three 100-yard games and four games with double-digit fantasy points in his seven games this season.
WR - Riley Cooper, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. WAS)
In the past five games, Foles has started four games although he left one of them early due to a concussion. In those games that he has finished, Cooper has gone over 100 yards and scored. In fact, he has 362 yards and six scores in those three games.
With the chemistry displayed by Foles and Cooper and a favorable matchup this week, it's hard to sit Cooper. Only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers than Washington this season.
TE - Tim Wright, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. ATL)
After scoring a touchdown and double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back weeks, Wright had only one reception for 19 yards last week. That said, he's clearly the team's second-best option in the passing game behind Jackson and should see a decent amount of targets to be a low-end TE1 this week.
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Here are some players to possibly sit for Week 11:
QB - Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (at NO)
Since throwing for more than 400 yards in Week 1 against the Packers, Kaepernick has thrown for less than 200 yards in seven of eight games this season. In fact, he had his lowest total of the season last week against the tough Panthers defense and finished with a season-low two fantasy points. Much of Kaepernick's fantasy success has come from running the ball well this year with 310 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
This week, he faces another tough (and much improved from last year) NFC South pass defense. Only the Panthers and Seahawks have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.
QB - Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at TB)
Although Ryan had his best fantasy performance of the past three weeks, he had just 11 fantasy points last week against the Seahawks. Over the past three weeks, Ryan has averaged 230.7 passing yards and thrown three touchdowns with seven interceptions.
While the Bucs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points this season to quarterbacks, Bucs cornerback Darrelle Revis is playing much better lately and the matchup is more difficult than it may appear on paper.
RB - C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills (vs. NYJ)
Spiller has had several disappointing performances this season including last week, but his worst game of the season was his first matchup against the Jets this season. In that game, Spiller had 10 carries for nine yards and no fantasy points. With it being difficult to trust Spiller's workload and an unfavorable matchup, Spiller is no more than a flex option this week.
The Jets have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs and lead the NFL in rushing defense (73.8 yards allowed per game).
RB - Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (at TB)
Obviously the multi-week absence due to injury has derailed his season, but I expected Jackson to be much more productive than he's been when healthy. For the second time in the past three weeks since returning to the lineup, however, Jackson rushed for 11 yards or less. Behind a not-so-great offensive line, Jackson is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season and the Bucs rank fifth in the NFL in rushing defense (95.8 YPG allowed).
RB - Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (vs. SF)
Ingram had the best game of his career last week as three Saints running backs finished in the top five in fantasy points at the position. Ingram had 14 carries for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers rush defense struggled earlier in the season as they allowed six total touchdowns to running backs in Weeks 1 to 3. Since then, however, they have allowed only three touchdowns to running backs in six games.
WR - Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (at DEN)
The good news is that Bowe had season highs of seven receptions and 67 yards in his most recent performance. Aside from his arrest this past weekend, the bad news for Bowe is that those are his season highs.
According to incident report, Dwayne Bowe asked officer if Sonic was still open. #notajoke — Amanda Palumbo (@PalumboKCTV5) November 12, 2013
The Broncos have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, but I have little faith that Bowe and the Chiefs will be able to exploit that.
WR - Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (at TB)
After sitting out a regular-season game for the first time(s) in his career, White returned to the field last week but it was another disappointing performance for him. On five targets, he finished with one reception for 20 yards. With Revis playing better and likely/possibly shadowing White, it's better to wait at least one more week before inserting White into your starting lineup.
WR - Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (at NO)
In his first game of the season, Boldin had 13 receptions for 208 yards and a touchdown. Through the Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 11, there are only four players who have a 200-yard game this season.
Since Week 1, however, it's been all downhill for Boldin and his fantasy owners. He has only one other game with double-digit fantasy points and he has five or fewer fantasy points in four of his past five games.
TE - Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (vs. SD)
Before allowing a long touchdown to Julius Thomas last week, the Chargers defense had not allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 1. In their previous seven games, they have held opposing tight ends to a combined five points or less in seven consecutive games.
After scoring a touchdown in three consecutive games, Clay now has three consecutive games with three fantasy points or less.
More Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings:
- Week 11 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
- Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
- Week 11 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
- Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Salary-Cap Analysis:
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