Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)
Here are my Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:
Jacksonville Jaguars +13 (over Tennessee Titans)
The Titans stand at 4-4 and are in a fight for a wildcard spot this season. When Mike Munchak came out and said Shonn Greene would get 15 touches a game, I think that lit a fire for Chris Johnson. CJ2K actually looked like CJ2K last week in a big win versus the Rams on the road.
Johnson is always criticized in the fantasy world. You hear the phrases washed up, indecisive, or lost a step all the time. In half point PPR leagues (my standard), Johnson is actually the 12th best RB this year, which is about where he was drafted at this year. I think Johnson has another huge game Sunday against the league's worst rush defense.
The Jaguars are playing spoilers, and playing for the No. 1 pick in the draft next year. As much as I would love to see a landslide win from the Titans, I think this one is closer than people think.
Tennessee has a thing about making bad QB's look good. I actually had someone tell me in the office this week that Kellen Clemens should start over Sam Bradford. Bradford might not be the answer long term in St. Louis, but Clemens is horrible. Chad Henne was 1-1 against the Titans last year, and played fairly well against them. They also have a healthy Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Titans have problems stopping the run as well.
The Jaguars have lost every game this year by double-digits. This is a trend I expect to end on Sunday. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings vs. the Titans. I like them with the points Sunday: Titans 31, Jags 23.
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Dallas Cowboys +6.5 (over New Orleans Saints)
The Cowboys are one of two teams (Philly being the other) that are on pace to give up the most passing yards of all time. This week, they head to New Orleans to battle Drew Brees and one of the best passing attacks in the league.
After losing to the Jets last week, I think the Saints offense will get back on track this week. I've mentioned just how bad the Cowboys secondary is, especially their safeties. I think they get burned deep a few times in this one.
On the other hand, Dallas is just off a hard-fought battle against the Vikings where Tony Romo led them to a victory in the final few seconds. In the Cowboys four losses this year, they have only lost by a combined 14 points. That is pretty impressive and telling number. I think Dallas changes up the game plan this week and actually runs the ball against this Saints defense. The Jets were very successful doing it, and I think DeMarco Murray will be a big factor Sunday. If Dallas wants to have any shot in the NFC, they need to have their featured back carry the ball more than four times. This is a huge problem that I think gets fixed this week.
Brees throw for over 400 yards and three scores, but a healthy Murray is the difference in this one. I think the Cowboys win this one outright in a shootout: Cowboys 41, Saints 37.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (over Carolina Panthers)
The Panthers have been a pleasant surprise this season. They have rattled off four straight wins and are in the middle of the playoff race in the NFC at 5-4. San Francisco has won five straight games as well after a slow start.
The one thing these two teams have in common during these streaks is that they were all against .500 or below teams. I'm not sure Carolina is quite ready yet to win a game this big.
I love the 49ers defense at home this week. I think Carolina is going to have trouble moving the ball, and I think they are held without a touchdown all game.
On the other side, Carolina's streak of not allowing a first-half touchdown ends this week. 49ers, 23-9.
Five of our contributors make three weekly picks ATS every week and they will be posted here.
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