Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)
Here are my Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:
Cleveland Browns+6 (over Cincinnati Bengals)
The Browns haven't been this relevant this late the NFL season for a long time, and they could pull right into striking distance this week with a win over the Bengals. The Bengals have struggled as of late; after putting up an offensive explosion on the Jets, they have only scored 37 points in their last two games.
The Bengals are banged up on defense, as their two best defensive players in Leon Hall and Geno Atkins are on IR, and they will be out with Rey Maualuga and Chris Crocker this week as well. The Browns also match up well against the Bengals offense, as they allow 98.2 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, and A.J. Green will have the pleasure of seeing Joe Haden.
The Browns also have the history against the number as well, as they have gone 3-0-1 in their last four when playing Cincy. I know the Bengals are at home, and will look to bust a two-game losing streak, but this game will be within one possession, so I will take the points.
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Kansas City Chiefs +7.5 (over Denver Broncos)
The game of the week, for certain, will pit the 8-1 Broncos vs. the 9-0 Chiefs for AFC West supremacy. The Broncos are on track to have the best passing attack of all-time, but they will face a stout Chiefs defense that only allows a 53.5-percent completion rate, 208 yards per game, nine TDs in nine games, and they have 36 sacks.
The Broncos come into this game banged up, as they are missing key pieces on the offensive line, and of course the dreaded high ankle sprain for Peyton Manning. The Chiefs also have the offense to keep Manning off the field, as they have one of the league's best backs in Jamaal Charles. I would look for the Chiefs' excellent secondary to play press coverage and disrupt the timing of the Broncos offense, and for the the Chiefs front four to get to Manning though that patchwork line.
The Chiefs have two historical factors working for them, as the underdog in this series is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven. And if you are giving points to that defense in a divisional game, I will gladly take them.
New England Patriots +1.5 (over Carolina Panthers)
In the other prime time matchup, we have most likely the second best game of the week, as the Patriots will head south to Carolina.
The Panthers were impressive last week, as they traveled to the west coast, and dominated the 49ers on their home field. Carolina has assembled one of the best defenses in the league, and they have fared well against the pass giving up only 201 yards per game and 7 TDs so far.
The Patriots much maligned offense in the first half of the season is starting to come around, as they have not scored less than 27 points in a game in their last four. Although the Panthers defense has been great, they still have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66 percent of their throws, and Tom Brady finally has a healthy Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and an emerging Aaron Dobson on the field at once.
It is so rare to see the Patriots get points, so when a gift falls into your lap, you have to open it. I love the Patriots off the bye week, getting points, and on Monday Night Football where they always shine.
Five of our contributors make three weekly picks ATS every week and they will be posted here.
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