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If I could meet any 10 people in sports, the list would be as follows (not necessarily in order):

Muhammad Ali

Muhammad Ali is perhaps the greatest pound-for-pound boxer of all time. The heavyweight champ fought in some of the greatest matches of all time, including his bouts with a seemingly invincible Sonny Liston, against whom he first won the title, the famous rope-a-dope match against George Foreman, in which Ali famously allowed Foreman to punch himself into exhaustion before unleashing on him and handing him the first loss of his career, and three epic matches with his biggest rival, Smokin' Joe Frazier, culminating in the Thrilla in Manilla. Ali famously called this match the "closest thing to death" he ever experienced. Ali was the heavyweight champ at a time when boxing was king. In addition, he was a religious and political icon. He was a freak athlete, a poet, a showman, and an ambassador of peace all rolled into one. Muhammad Ali is certainly one of the most interesting figures in sports history, and tops my list of athletes I'd like to meet.

Mark Cuban

There are a lot of great characters in the world of sports, but few more interesting and entertaining than Mark Cuban. Cuban started a software company, Microsolutions, which made him a millionaire by the age of 32 when he sold it. A few years later, he started Broadcast.com, and during the dot com boom, he sold it to Yahoo! for 5.9 billion. I could go on and on about the different successful business ventures Cuban has had, but one of his most interesting acquisitions was his purchase of the Dallas Mavericks in 2000. The Mavs were the laughing stock of the league when Cuban took over, but over time, they became a perennial playoff contender, and this past year, defeated Lebron James and the hated Miami Heat, to capture the NBA championship. Cuban is an outspoken owner who rarely keeps his opinions to himself. He has racked up at least $1,665,000 in fines during his tenure as owner of the Mavericks. He has also shown interest in buying a baseball team, actively bidding on the Texas Rangers, and at one point or another showed interest in both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. He has recently been mentioned as considering purchasing the Los Angeles Dodgers if the price is right. In the entertainment field, Cuban has also made several guest appearances on ABC's entrepreneurial television hit series Shark Tank, in which he competes with other entrepreneurs to buy the rights to various ideas people bring forward to them. Cuban is an unconventional billionaire, and his candid nature and ability to have fun no matter what he is doing, has made him a fan favorite. It would be quite the experience to grab a cup of coffee with Mark Cuban.

Continue reading "The 10 People in Sports I'd Like to Meet" »

Posted by John Trifone at 08:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Yesterday, the other EDSFootball.com contributors and I released all individual game predictions for the wild-card round of the playoffs.

Here are my picks for the full playoffs from this point:

NFC

Wild-Card Round:
(3) Saints over (6) Lions (see our picks and rationale)
(4) Giants over (5) Falcons (see our picks and rationale)

Divisional Round:
(1) Packers over (4) Giants
(2) 49ers over (3) Saints

NFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Packers over (2) 49ers

I know this is actually complete chalk in terms of seeds, but most people will have the Saints over the 49ers and possibly even the Packers. I also suspect a fair amount of people will take the Falcons over the Giants in the first round. I'd love to go another way than the Packers, but they've been hands down the best team in football this year in my eyes, and if they can play to their potential, I don't see anyone beating them.

AFC

Wild-Card Round:
(3) Texans over (6) Bengals (see our picks and rationale)
(5) Steelers over (4) Broncos (see our picks and rationale)

Divisional Round:
(1) Patriots over (5) Steelers
(2) Ravens over (3) Texans

AFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Patriots over (2) Ravens

I'm not a Patriots fan, so I'd like to see myself be wrong here, but the Patriots are the best team in the AFC. They have come out flat in a lot of games this year, and then ended up just pouring it on and winning the game easily. Since losing to the Giants, the Patriots have won eight games in a row. Their offense is as good as any in the league, and their defense, though 31st in the league in yards, is 15th in points allowed. The poor defensive numbers are a little misleading though, as they are with Green Bay's 32nd-ranked defense. Though I wouldn't call either defense "good," they are victimized by such strong offenses. The defense is on the field more often with less rest when the offense can score as quickly and efficiently as these offenses do. I do think the Ravens can pose a challenge, but in New England, it's hard to pick against Brady and Belichick, the winningest coach/player combination in league history.

Super Bowl XLVI (historical results): Packers over Patriots

I know I'm not exactly going out on a limb picking the 15-1 Packers to win the Super Bowl. That said, it certainly isn't going to be an easy road. The Saints are perhaps the hottest team in the league, and it will take a lot to get by them if need be. The 49ers have a great defense that would likely slow down the Packers' offense. And while San Fran's offense is not great, Green Bay's defense is obviously their weak point. Even the Giants are capable of knocking the Packers off, given that Eli Manning led a drive in the final minutes of the game they played earlier in the year to tie them with less than a minute to go. Rodgers was able to one up Eli and march down the field in a matter of seconds to get into field goal range and get the win, but ever since the Chiefs upset Green Bay, they certainly were exposed as beatable.

The Patriots are also beatable, as they fall behind early far too often. Although their offense seems like they can score at will, their defense is quite vulnerable, and if they fall behind to a good playoff team, the Patriots certainly could go down. Every team has their flaws, though. The Ravens have been inexplicably bad at times this year, the Steelers have injury problems and can't beat the Ravens, and the Texans lost their number one quarterback earlier in the season, realistically taking them out of top contention in the eyes of most.

As for the game itself, the Packers are just the better overall team. You can flip a coin on Brady and Rodgers, and it's likely that whoever gets the ball last will be the team to triumph. But between the Packers defense being the better group in my mind and the Patriots problems with falling behind early, I like the Packers to come out on top. In this day and age, it's difficult for a team to repeat as champion, but the Packers are good enough to do just that. And I expect that they will.

See more of John's posts here and follow him on Twitter @JohnnyT0122

Posted by John Trifone at 06:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

With just two weeks left in the season, several teams are pushing to make a late playoff run. Other teams are trying to keep it together long enough to fend off the teams on the outside looking in. A few more scenarios have developed as a result of this past weekend's action, so it should make for some exciting football down the stretch.

Here's a look at the current playoff scenarios:

1. Green Bay Packers (schedule): The dream of an undefeated season is over, as the Packers are coming off their first loss of the season at Kansas City. Still, at 13-1, they hold a two-game lead over the rest of the NFC. They will clinch home field throughout this weekend with a win at home against the Bears or a 49er loss to the Seahawks.

2. San Francisco 49ers (schedule): The Niners are coming off a big win over the Steelers Monday night, holding Pittsburgh to just three points. For anyone still wondering, this team is for real. They have already clinched the NFC West, and can clinch the number two seed overall with a win at Seattle and a Saints loss to the Falcons. They currently hold the tie breaker over the Saints with a better conference record (9-2 vs. 7-4).

3. New Orleans Saints (schedule): The Saints have clinched a playoff berth, but have yet to lock up the division with the Falcons breathing down their necks. New Orleans will get a chance to clinch this weekend at home against Atlanta. The Saints could also beat the Panthers in Week 17 to win the division. They are in good shape to get the three seed and can displace the 49ers as the two seed if San Francisco stumbles against either Seattle or St. Louis.

4. Dallas Cowboys (schedule): The NFC East is up for grabs, as no one seems to want to win it. The Cowboys looked good in a big win on Saturday night over Tampa Bay, but that's not really all that impressive. Dallas has a one-game lead in the division, but have tough games against the Eagles and Giants coming up. We all know how Dallas has been finishing the last few years, so the NFC East could certainly get interesting. With two weeks to go, it's too early to tell if Dallas will be hosting a playoff game.

5. Atlanta Falcons (schedule): The Falcons are pretty likely to be one of the two NFC wild card teams. If they win out and the Saints lose out, they could still win the division and become the three seed. They could also get dislodged by Detroit and fall to the six seed. However, they have a two-game lead over all of the teams on the outside looking in, and Atlanta hosts Tampa Bay Week 17. It's likely that the Falcons will clinch a wild card spot.

6. Detroit Lions (schedule): The Lions staged a huge comeback against the Raiders this past weekend, squeaking by with a 28-27 victory. This was a very important game for them, as the Lions have to finish against a suddenly hot San Diego Charger team, and then a road game at the Packers. If they're lucky, Green Bay will rest most of their starters. But if not, those are two very losable games for the Lions, and they may need every bit of the two-game lead they currently hold for the six spot. The Lions do not hold every tie breaker, so if they were to lose out, it is possible that they could lose their spot.

7. Seattle Seahawks (schedule): Seattle is coming off a game in which they destroyed the Bears. After being down 14-7, they went on to win it 38-14. Seattle has won five of their last six games and have been playing great lately. Unfortunately for them, it may be too late. San Francisco is too far ahead for them to win the division, so they would need to earn a wild card spot. They need to win out and get help in order to get in.

8. Chicago Bears (schedule): At 7-7, the Bears are in a similar boat as the Seahawks, except the Bears have a few more obstacles. One, they have to go into Green Bay this week and get a win to even stay alive. And two, they need to find a way to get a win without Jay Cutler. Chicago is 0-4 since Cutler went down, and it doesn't look good for them to get back into the thick of it. They also need to win out and get help to get in.

9. New York Giants (schedule): The Giants are still alive in the race to win the NFC East, even after their atrocious efforts against the Redskins this past weekend. They are one game behind Dallas, and they will host the Cowboys Week 17. The Giants do have one other concern, though. The Dream Team Philadelphia Eagles have come out of nowhere. If the Giants lose to the Jets this weekend and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, they no longer control their own destiny. Long story short, if the Giants win out, they will win the division and lock up the four seed.

10. Arizona Cardinals (schedule): As bad as the NFC West is, they still have three teams alive for a playoff spot. The Cardinals know what they need to get in, and that is to win out and get lots of help. They need to beat the Bengals and Seahawks in the final two weeks AND the Falcons and/or Lions to lose out, and they will clinch a playoff berth.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (schedule): The Eagles looked great this past weekend against the Jets. The offense is clicking, and it is certainly possible that they could win out with games against the Cowboys, who they beat 34-7 earlier in the year, and Redskins. They also need the Giants to lose to the Jets in Week 16, but then beat the Cowboys in Week 17. This is the only scenario in which Philadelphia can make the playoffs, and if it happens, the Eagles will win the NFC East at 8-8.

Eliminated: Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins.

Posted by John Trifone at 06:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The AFC picture is quite interesting. There is only one wild card spot still up for grabs for several teams to fight over. In addition, all four of the teams in the AFC West still have a chance to win the division.

There are still an awful lot of ways that this whole thing could play out, but this is the current breakdown:

1. New England Patriots (schedule): The Patriots continued rolling this past weekend against the Broncos, ending Tebow's winning streak at six. With losses by Houston, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh, the Patriots are in sole possession of first place in the AFC, and will clinch home field throughout if they can beat the Dolphins and Bills in the final two weeks of the season.

2. Baltimore Ravens (schedule): The Ravens got trounced by the Chargers this past weekend, but with the Steelers also losing to the 49ers, they were able to remain the two seed. So long as Baltimore can hold off the Browns and Bengals to finish the season, they will hold onto the first-round bye. A loss could cause them to fall to a wild card spot, if either Houston or Pittsburgh were to win out.

3. Houston Texans (schedule): The Texans are coming off a disappointing game to the Panthers. They have already locked up the AFC South division, and still have a chance at a first-round bye if they can beat the Colts and Titans and get a little bit of help. It remains to be seen how effective the Texans will be without Matt Schaub, and with a nagging injury to Andre Johnson.

4. Denver Broncos (schedule): The Denver Tebows, or Broncos rather, saw their winning streak end to Brady and the Patriots. Thanks to a massive comeback by the Lions and some fantastic catches by Megatron down the stretch, Denver is still holding a one-game lead over the Raiders. They need a win and a Raider loss to win the division. If they were to lose out, they could be displaced by either the Raiders or the Chargers.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (schedule): Although they lost to the 49ers on Monday night, the Steelers still were able to clinch a playoff berth when the Colts knocked off the Titans for their first win of the season. Pittsburgh can still clinch a first round bye if the Ravens stumble and they win out. If not, they will face a road playoff game wild card weekend.

6. New York Jets (schedule): The Jets are coming off a bad loss to the Eagles this past weekend. Fortunately for them, most of the other relevant teams in the playoff hunt also lost. They still hold on to the final playoff spot with a better record in common games than the Bengals (3-2 vs 2-2). The Jets have a big game against the Giants this Saturday and then finish at Miami. They do still control their own destiny, but a loss will open the door to several teams.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (schedule): The Bengals held off the Rams in a 20-13 victory to pull into a virtual tie with the Jets. They still need help, though, as they do not hold the tiebreaker over New York. The Bengals will clinch a wild card spot with two wins against the Cardinals and Ravens, and a Jets loss.

8. Tennessee Titans (schedule): The Titans suffered a devastating loss at the hands of the Colts this past weekend. With only one wild card spot that can be earned, the Titans will need a lot of help, as they are a full game behind both the Jets and Bengals. They still have an outside shot, but this past weekend's loss really crippled Tennessee's playoff hopes.

9. Oakland Raiders (schedule): The Raiders also suffered a terrible loss in Week 15, blowing a 27-14 lead over the Lions, before losing 28-27. Because of the loss, they remain a game behind the Broncos. There are still many ways that the AFC West could play out, but the Raiders will have to win two tough division games against the Chiefs and Chargers and hope for a Bronco loss if they want to win it.

10. San Diego Chargers (schedule): Like the Eagles, the Chargers have found a way to get back into the playoff discussion. Though spectacularly unimpressive for most of the season, the Chargers are surging, winning their last three games in decisive fashion. The Chargers need to win out AND need two Bronco losses in order to clinch the AFC West.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (schedule): Don't ask me how, but somehow, after derailing the Packers perfect season, the Chiefs still have an outside chance to win the AFC West at 6-8. They would need to win out AND have the Broncos lose out AND a Charger loss. If this scenario plays out, the Chiefs will be back in the playoffs.

Eliminated: Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.

Posted by John Trifone at 06:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

In breaking down the games this week, it once again appears that the best bet of the week by the numbers, is the Monday Night game.

The 49ers are coming off a bad loss at Arizona, but come home this week where they are 6-0-1 ATS this season. They are also 7-1 ATS when playing as the favorite.

By contrast, the Steelers have not been great on the road. Although they have a 4-2 record overall, they are just 2-4 ATS and 1-2 ATS as an underdog, which they will be this week.

Like last week, this game is currently OTB, pending the status of Ben Roethlisberger, but the preliminary line was San Francisco by 2.5. If Roethlisberger does not play, Pittsburgh's offense is going to struggle mightily against a solid 49er defense, so even with a more inflated spread, the 49ers should cover. Pittsburgh is ranked 17th in the league running the ball and San Francisco is ranked number 1 against the run. So without the services of Big Ben, the Steelers are likely to struggle to score points. And if Big Ben can play, he will likely be affected by his high ankle sprain, and the Niners will look to exploit that.

Both San Francisco and Pittsburgh are coming off less than impressive games. Pittsburgh was able to salvage a home win against Cleveland, although with only a few minutes to go, it was a 7-3 game with Cleveland driving. San Francisco blew their road game at Arizona, and will be looking to bounce back and retain the two seed they have held for most of the season.

From a game standpoint alone, this one looks like a tough one to call, with two powerhouse teams squaring off. But the numbers tell us differently.

Take San Francisco all the way.

Posted by John Trifone at 05:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are 10 bold NFL predictions for Week 15 (ranked in order from least bold to boldest):

1. Tony Romo will throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a big Cowboy victory over the Bucs.

2. The Chargers will stay hot and defeat 10-3 Baltimore this week, and will pull within one game of the division lead.

3. TJ Yates will build off his performance in Cincinnati and lead the Texans to victory over Carolina. Houston will go on to clinch home field throughout.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew will rush for over 100 yards against a tough Atlanta defense in a losing effort.

5. The 49ers will bounce back from their loss to Arizona and win by double digs against Pittsburgh on Monday Night.

6. Marshawn Lynch will have his touchdown streak broken in Chicago, but Seattle finds a way to win anyway.

7. Tim Tebow finally plays four bad quarters instead of the usual three, as the Patriots put an end to Denver's 6 game winning streak.

8. Aaron Rodgers will throw for five touchdowns this week, even without number once receiver Greg Jennings, putting Brady's touchdown record in jeopardy.

9. The Colts offense finally gets going as they get their first win over division rival Tennessee this weekend

10. Joe Webb and AP will tear up the New Orleans defense and lead Minnesota to an upset victory over the Saints.

What is your bold prediction for Week 15?

[Editor's Note: Kevin Hanson will have 10 bold predictions for fantasy football this weekend.]

Posted by John Trifone at 07:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The NFC playoff picture has started to clear up a bit, but there are still a variety of ways that the AFC can play out. In the NFC, the top three seeds are pretty well solidified, but the AFC seeding could still change several times before we know who will have home field throughout and who will be playing on wild card weekend.

At present, this is what the seeding looks like:

1. Houston Texans (10-3)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
3. New England Patriots (10-3)
4. Denver Broncos (8-5)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
6. New York Jets (8-5)
7. Tennessee Titans (7-6)
8. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
9. Oakland Raiders (7-6)

AFC East:

It's the same old story in the AFC East, with New England having a choke-hold on the division. New England held off Washington this week, but dropped from the one seed to the three based on tie breakers. However, these scenarios are likely to change, and the Patriots will be in a battle for a first-round bye. The Jets are coming on once again and have leaped into the six seed. Key losses by the Titans, Bengals, and Raiders allowed this to happen. If Mark Sanchez can protect the football, the Jets promise to be a tough out if they can hang on to their wild card position.

AFC North:

The Ravens retained the two seed and would earn a first-round bye if they can remain there. Pittsburgh is still breathing down their neck, but will lose the tie breaker to Baltimore based on two head-to-head losses. The Ravens have a tough matchup at the suddenly red hot San Diego Chargers, while Pittsburgh faces their own challenge at San Francisco. Both games are hugely significant, as teams jockey for playoff position. Keep in mind that the Steelers will lose the tie breaker to Baltimore, but own the head-to-head tie breaker over New England, so Pittsburgh could be the five seed, playing a road wild card game, or the one seed, earning home field throughout. Time will tell. The Bengals had a damaging last-second loss to Houston this past week that dropped them to eighth in the seeding. They will need some help going forward to get back in it.

AFC South:

The Texans vaulted to the number one seed, as rookie TJ Yates led two 80+ yard drives to clinch a last-second victory in Cincinnati. Houston has Carolina, Indianapolis, and then what could be a very important division game week 17 against the Titans. Not normally viewed as one of the traditional powerhouses of the AFC, Houston has a legitimate shot at clinching home field throughout. Tennessee will need some help after dropping a home game to New Orleans. They currently hold tie breakers over Cincy and Oakland, but need to make up a game still to avoid being the first team out.

AFC West:

It's Tim Tebow's world, we're all just living in it. After another stunning comeback against Chicago, the Broncos put some distance between themselves and the Raiders, who got steamrolled by Green Bay. The Raiders may fall out of the playoff picture, unless they can right the ship the last few weeks. Denver has a tough challenge against New England coming up, which may give the Raiders some hope. Regardless of who wins the division, it seems that they are a lock to be the four seed and host a game on wild card weekend, as they are unlikely to catch the top three. San Diego is also worth a mention, as they have played great the past two weeks. They will need plenty of help, but if they can win out, they still have a shot at the division.

Related: NFL Standings - NFL Schedule - NFL Power Rankings

Posted by John Trifone at 09:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

We're getting closer to seeing a perfect season, and a few other great NFC stories as the season winds down. The Lions making the playoffs would be great for the city of Detroit. The 49ers have had a great turnaround from a 6-10 team last year to the number two seed. And can the Cowboys overcome their December woes and finally win a playoff game this year?

Here's a look at the NFC's playoff picture:

1. Green Bay Packers (13-0)
2. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
4. New York Giants (7-6)
5. Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
6. Detroit Lions (8-5)
7. Chicago Bears (7-6)
8. Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

NFC East:

The New York Giants were virtually on the brink of elimination this past weekend, after losing four games in a row, and having to go into then division leader Dallas. A loss would have put them two games behind the Cowboys, who also would have held the head to head tie-breaker, with only three weeks left in the season. Instead, the Giants kept themselves alive and defeated the Cowboys 37-34; a game in which Eli Manning led the Giants back from down 12 points in the final 6 minutes of the game. As it stands now, the Giants are in as the four seed and the Cowboys are on the outside looking in. However, the two teams will meet again in New York in week 17, and the winner of this game will likely win the division, while the other is likely to miss the playoffs.

NFC North:

The Packers continue to cruise this season, with their latest victims being the Oakland Raiders. Oakland was down by 14 before you could get comfortable in your seat to watch the game. At 13-0, there is every reason to think that Green Bay will lock up home field throughout in the coming weeks. The Bears were the first wild card team in a week ago, but after blowing a 10-0 lead at Denver, have fallen out of the top six. The Bears have been realizing everyone's fears about their offense after Cutler went down, and if they are unable to figure something out soon, they may have just been displaced for good. The Lions, who have fallen behind big early several times this year, found themselves in the unusual position of getting out to a big lead, only to blow it. Fortunately for them, the refs missed a key facemask penalty against Minnesota's Joe Webb, and held on to a 34-28 victory. At 8-5, the Lions have moved up to the six spot, but are going to need to play better than they did in the second half this past week if they are going to stay there.

NFC South:

The Saints got a key win at Tennessee this past weekend, and after a 49ers loss, have moved into a tie with them at 10-3 a piece. San Francisco still holds the tie breaker with an 8-2 conference record, compared to the Saints 6-3 record, so New Orleans may need to gain one more game in order to get the two seed. San Francisco hosts Pittsburgh in a highly anticipated Monday Night game this coming week, and this may be the Saints best chance to move up a spot. Atlanta also won a big game at Carolina this past weekend, and hold the tie breaker over the six seeded Lions. The Falcons still have home games against the Jaguars and Buccaneers, so Atlanta looks to be in good shape to lock up one of the wild card spots.

NFC West:

The 49ers lost a rare game to the Cardinals this past weekend, and slipped into a tie with the Saints for the two seed. Fortunately for them, they still hold the tie breaker, and if they can take care of business at home this week against the Steelers, they are big favorites to hold onto the spot. The Saints still have a tough game to play against the Falcons, so San Francisco is still in pretty good shape. The Cardinals, coming off a win against the Niners, and the Seahawks are both playing better of late, and at 6-7 each, have played their way into the playoff discussion. Sort of. Each team would likely need to win out and get a fair amount of help to have a chance, but stranger things have certainly happened.

Related: NFL Standings - NFL Schedule - NFL Power Rankings

Posted by John Trifone at 09:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The AFC playoff picture is a bit more complicated than the NFC (see NFC Playoff Picture) with several things still subject to change over the coming weeks.

As it stands right now, here is the playoff breakdown:

1. New England Patriots 9-3
2. Baltimore Ravens 9-3
3. Houston Texans 9-3
4. Denver Broncos 7-5
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-3
6. Cincinnati Bengals 7-5
7. Tennessee Titans 7-5
8. Oakland Raiders 7-5
9. New York Jets 7-5

AFC East:

The Patriots have emerged as what has looked like the class of the AFC. Though they lost to Pittsburgh earlier in the season, they seem to have hit their stride, with a defense that has been playing better and better and an offense that the league is still struggling to figure out. Tight end Rob Gronkowski appears to be uncoverable in the red zone, and Wes Welker seems to catch at least 10 balls per game. The Patriots currently hold the one spot in the AFC, but this is subject to change if Pittsburgh wins the division. Pittsburgh holds the tie breaker over New England, while Baltimore does not. The Jets are the interesting team to watch in the AFC East down the stretch. At 9-7 last year, the Jets made their second consecutive run to the AFC Championship. Once again, they have the defense to go deep, and they have a pretty favorable schedule to make another run at it. With two home games against Kansas City and the Giants, and road games against Philadelphia and Miami, the Jets certainly have the ability to wind up at 10-6. They are, however, on the losing end of some key tie breakers, which will clearly work against them. I like the Jets, probably more than most, to once again sneak in and potentially make some noise, but clearly there is an awful lot of football still to be played.

AFC North:

This is the division that needs to really play itself out to fill in the puzzle pieces of the AFC playoff picture. The Ravens won both games against the Steelers this year, so with a tie record, Baltimore would win the division. Baltimore has two fairly easy home games against the Colts and Browns, but two tougher matchups on the road at San Diego and Cincinnati. The problem with Baltimore is that they have struggled in games that they should seemingly win easily. They lost to Jacksonville and Seattle, and needed to mount a massive comeback to beat Arizona 30-27 at home. Still, I'd expect Baltimore to get it together, and go 3-1 down the stretch. Pittsburgh has three games in which they will be big favorites, with two against Cleveland and one against St. Louis. The other game is at a 10-2 San Francisco team, which looks to be a great defensive matchup. If they, too, go 3-1, then the Ravens will hang on to win the division and likely get a first-round bye, as they hold the tie breaker over Houston with a head-to-head win. Cincinnati is also in contention for a wildcard spot, with two favorable games against the Rams and Cardinals, and two tougher games against Houston and Baltimore. If Cincy does, indeed, go 2-2 in their last four, they are likely to be on the outside looking in, with so many teams in contention. But as it stands right now, they hold the tie breakers and are clinging to the 6-seed. The upcoming game against Houston on Sunday should give us a clearer picture of where Cincinnati stands.

AFC South:

Even losing Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart to injury, the Texans are still in good shape to win the division. They hold a two-game lead over the Tennessee Titans and won their earlier matchup in Tennessee. The real question for the Texans is how legitimate of a chance do they have after losing their first two quarterbacks? They do have a good defense, and the best running back tandem in the game. They also have a terrific offensive line, which should allow third-string quarterback T.J. Yates to have time to make decisions in the pocket. The jury is still out on how successful they can be, but Houston can at least rest easy knowing that they are fairly securely in the playoffs, and they have four more games to get Yates some experience. Tennessee, behind Chris Johnson's ferocious comeback, may ride him all the way to a wild card birth. They have won three of their last four games, and after a tough matchup with New Orleans this weekend, they play the Colts and Jaguars the following two weeks. They finish against a Houston team that may have nothing to play for Week 17, so Tennessee has a real chance to get in. They are currently in seventh, one spot behind the Bengals for the final team in.

AFC West:

The AFC West has been a very marginal division the last few years, with only the Chargers being taken seriously as a contender. This year, the Chargers have struggled, and the Raiders and more surprising Broncos have emerged. Behind Tim Tebow, the Broncos have won game after game in the same unorthodox fashion. Get behind early, put up terrible numbers, make a big play on defense or special teams, and then let Tebow win the game in the waning minutes. Say what you will about Tebow and the Broncos, but they have won five in a row and have charged to the top of the AFC West. The Broncos will have a tough test, with Chicago and New England as their next two games. But with Cutler out, and Buffalo and Kansas City in their final two games, the Broncos have to be the favorite to win this division. The Raiders have a much tougher road, hosting Green Bay before playing Detroit and San Diego. They also have a game against Kansas City that they should win. Still, only one of these teams seems likely to make the playoffs, so the battle for the division is on. In a virtual tie (Denver has the tie breaker on a 3-2 division record compared to Oakland with a 2-2 division record), every game could be the one that propels either Denver or Oakland into the playoffs. Both teams are feel good stories, with Oakland losing long time owner Al Davis earlier in the season, and the Broncos riding the Tim Tebow express, with his cult-like following. Time will tell.

Related: NFC Playoff Picture - NFL Standings

Posted by John Trifone at 06:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Unfortunately, the 2011 NFL football season is already three-quarters over. Fortunately, this means that the playoffs are just around the corner. Plenty can still change in the last four weeks of the season, but the NFC looks pretty straight forward, with eight teams vying for six spots. Let's look ahead at some of the potential seedings and matchups we may be likely to see in January.

Currently, the playoff standings are as follows:

1. Green Bay Packers (12-0)
2. San Francisco 49ers (10-2)
3. New Orleans Saints (9-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-5)
5. Chicago Bears (7-5)
6. Atlants Falcons (7-5)
7. Detroit Lions (7-5)
8. New York Giants (6-6)

NFC East:

It is unlikely that both the Giants and Cowboys will both make the playoffs this year. The Cowboys currently hold a one-game lead, but the two teams will face off against each other in two of their final four games. The Giants are in particularly bad shape, already being a game out of the division lead, and holding a 3-6 conference record, which is used as the tie-breaker for a wildcard spot after head-to-head. The Cowboys would seem to have an easier road, with games at Tampa Bay and home against Philadelphia, while the Giants have Washington and a tough game at the Jets, who will be scrapping for a playoff spot themselves. There is still plenty of season for these teams, as both control their own destinies, but it is likely that only one of them will qualify for a playoff spot.

NFC North:

The Packers have already locked up the division and are essentially a lock for a first-round bye. They are also the heavy favorite to have home field advantage throughout, as they continue their pursuit of perfection. The Bears and Lions, on the other hand, are in a much less fortuitous circumstance. The Bears had been looking as good as anyone in the league, but the loss of Jay Cutler has proven to be a huge detriment, and could seemingly take them out of playoff contention. They would have been looking good down their stretch run, with winnable games at Denver and Minnesota, and at home against Seattle, but with Denver on a five-game winning streak, and no Cutler, the Bears are likely to struggle going forward. The Lions have their own issues, losing Ndamukong Suh for the first of a two-game suspension this past week. The Lions have a favorable matchup this week against the Vikings, but then go on the road to Oakland, play a talented but under-achieving Chargers team, and then go into Lambeau Field in Week 17, against what could be a 15-0 Packer team looking to wrap up a perfect season. Both teams have a one-game lead over the Giants, although the Lions, through tie-breakers, are still on the outside looking in for now.

NFC South:

The Saints have the most powerful offense in the league and have just been annihilating the competition at home. At 9-3 and with no signs of slowing down, the Saints should finish as at least the 3-seed, with a chance at a first-round bye, if the 49ers slip up at all. Atlanta is also looking good to make the playoffs at 7-5 and with the head-to-head tie-breaker over Detroit. They also have very winnable games coming up, with home games against the Jaguars and Bucs, and a road game at Carolina. Though they also still have one more game with New Orleans, so long as they take care of business in their other three games, Atlanta should easily get in at 10-6.

NFC West:

This division is already wrapped up. The 49ers clinched this past week, and with Seattle and Arizona at 5-7, there don't seem to be any other teams in playoff contention. The Niners have a tough home game against Pittsburgh in two weeks, but their remaining three road games are against the rest of the division, games in which they will be heavy favorites. It is certainly possible that New Orleans could catch San Francisco for the 2-seed, but the way things look right now, they are in good shape to have home-field against all but Green Bay.

Check back Thursday morning for the AFC Playoff Picture.

Posted by John Trifone at 11:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Beating the Vegas bookies isn't an easy thing to do. Most people try to look at many variables in a matchup to make as informed of a decision as possible, but it often comes down to a gut feeling that the spread is either too many or too few points. And so we make our wagers, cross our fingers, and hope to be right. This week, I decided to take a look into some trends and numbers to see if I could find any games that stuck out as a good bet. As it turns out, the Seahawks, playing in this week's Monday Night Football game, could be the bet of the week.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a big win at home this past Thursday night. Seattle is 7-4-1 against the spread (ATS) this year, posting a 4-2 mark at home. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, including a cover against Dallas and outright wins against the Ravens, Eagles, and Rams in St. Louis. The Rams, on the other hand, are just 2-10 ATS so far, and 1-5 on the road. They are 0-3 in the division and have lost three games in a row. (Just as an FYI, had I written a By the Numbers column last week, the feature game would have been the San Francisco 49ers hosting these same St. Louis Rams. San Francisco had been 9-1-1 ATS and 5-0-1 at home, and I've already shared the Rams abysmal record with you. Suffice it to say, the 49ers easily covered the 14-point spread, en route to a 26-0 victory.)

The Seahawks are also in the top half of the league or better in overall team defense, including total points, yards, and yards against the run, ranking 12th, 14th, and 11th respectively. Though they have a mediocre 5-7 record, their defense has been stable and consistent. This does not bode well for the Rams, who are scoring a putrid 11.7 points per game. They are, not surprisingly, last in scoring offense, as well as 31st in total yards per game.

Throw in the fact that Seattle's Marshawn Lynch has been on fire of late and will be matching up against a 24th-ranked Rams defense, and give Seattle three extra days to prepare for the game, and this one looks like a slam dunk bet on Seattle. The preliminary spread for this game was Seattle -6.5, but the game has been taken off the board pending injury updates. Certainly look for status updates on EDSfootball.com, and keep in mind that no matter how good a bet may look, to quote the great Chris Berman, "that's why they play the games." But strictly by the numbers, this one looks like the Seahawks all the way.

Posted by John Trifone at 09:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The dynamics of the NFL have evolved over the years. As quarterbacks have become the face of their respective franchise and more and more rules have been put in place to protect them, the league has become much more pass-oriented. It seems every year now, someone is challenging a major record. Peyton Manning set the QB rating mark of 121.1 with his 49 TDs and 10 picks in the 2004 season. A few years later, Tom Brady had his 50-and-8 campaign, and both he and Brees have challenged Marino's total passing yards number of 5,084. This year is no exception, as Aaron Rodgers will likely make a run at every single season QB record across the board. Behind the incredible efforts of their respective quarterbacks, the Colts, Patriots, Saints, and Packers have all won at least one championship. So is it really realistic to think that the San Francisco 49ers, led by Alex Smith, can go all the way this year?

The 49ers are bringing back the old school model for winning: run the football and stop the run. Their rushing attack is number six overall in the NFL, and they are tops in the league at stopping the run. They are also giving up a full two points per game less than the next best team, no small feat to accomplish 11 games into the season. Defensively they are at or near the top in most of the important categories, including forcing turnovers. They have 15 interceptions (tied for fifth in the NFL) and 13 forced fumbles (tied for second) to date. For you gamblers out there, the 49ers are 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this year, a statistic that suggests that Vegas is drastically underrating how good this team really is. This is reminiscent of the Patriots team that covered spread after spread all the way to the Super Bowl.

But getting back to the quarterback, Alex Smith is having a much better season than expected. Though his numbers are not spectacular, he has a top ten quarterback rating (he is number eight overall), and has only thrown five interceptions. This is another indication of a team that has all the potential in the world; they protect the football. Defenses know that the 49ers are going to rely heavily on the run, and yet they are still averaging just under 129 rushing yards per game. And unlike the pass-heavy teams, the Niners use their passing game as a complement to their rushing attack instead of the other way around. Alex Smith has shown that he can be the game manager, but can also win the game for them when necessary. In the fourth quarter this year, Smith has a 91.6 QB rating, good enough for 9th in the league behind guys like Rodgers, Brady, and Eli Manning, who is having perhaps the best statistical season of his career. His numbers are not sexy, and because of this it is difficult to see him as anything more than a Trent Dilfer type of quarterback, who won a ring while being known as a "game manager."

They are not flashy and they don't look like the 49ers of the 80's that won behind Montana, Young, Rice, etc. But this defensive unit has gotten better and better over the last few years, and now it looks like they have an offense that is good enough to put them in serious contention. They protect the football and force turnovers. They run the football well and stop the run. And on top of having one of the leagues best defenses, they have a quarterback who is just good enough to win a big game for them. I'm not sure anybody is going to beat the Packers this year, but the Niners have as good a chance as anybody.

Posted by John Trifone at 06:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Are the Ravens the real deal?

It seems that every year, they are among the favorites in a top-heavy AFC. Yet in that time, they have as many Super Bowl appearances as I do, and have reached only one AFC Championship since their Super Bowl run in 2000, eleven years ago. In that same time, the Ravens arch-rival Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have reached a combined seven Super Bowls and come out with five rings. The Colts have two Super Bowl appearances with one win, and even the Jets have two AFC Championship appearances. The Chargers, perhaps the most disappointing team of the last decade considering the amount of talent they have had (including missing the playoffs last year even though they led the league in both offense and defense statistically), sit in the same boat with Baltimore with only one AFC championship appearance in that time. Every year it seems that both the Ravens and Chargers are among the early favorites to win it all, and each year, both teams have failed to reach their goal. This year, the Chargers have declined, and with a 4-6 record, their expectations have been lowered significantly. But what of the Ravens, who, after beating the previously 9-1 San Francisco 49ers on Thanksgiving, have an AFC leading 8-3 record? Are they a legit pick to make the Super Bowl this year or are they destined to disappoint once again?

The 2011 Ravens have been strangely inconsistent for a team with the best record in the AFC. Though they are 4-2 in their last six games, they lost road games to (3-7) Jacksonville and a (4-6) Seattle. They also needed a massive second-half comeback to eek out a three-point win at home against a (3-7) Arizona team, who has struggled to find an identity. This is not the kind of play that should instill Ravens fans with the confidence that their team has what it takes to get to Indianapolis this year. At the same time, Baltimore is 3-0 in the division, with two wins against the mighty Steelers, and also have impressive wins over both the Jets and Texans, two other teams in playoff contention. This past week, they defeated the San Francisco 49ers 16-6. I think this game, hyped up as it was, revealed very little about the Ravens. They were coming off a home game, so did not have to travel anywhere. The Niners, on the other hand, had to fly from San Francisco to Baltimore on the short week, and had less time to prepare. A great defense and a hostile crowd in primetime is a difficult enough challenge as it is, without these added disadvantages. Don't get me wrong, the Ravens still took care of business and won the game, but it played to the expectations; a defensive battle won by the home team. It was a solid win, but not a particularly impressive one that left me saying "wow, that's a team that's head and shoulders above the rest."

The biggest issue the Ravens face is their offensive production. Joe Flacco, it seems, has taken a step backward this year. Through 11 games, he has a quarterback rating of 78.9, putting him behind rookies Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, as well as a struggling Mark Sanchez. While both Newton and Dalton are having phenomenal rookie seasons, they should not be playing better than a veteran like Flacco, who has stud running back Ray Rice to open up his passing game. And Mark Sanchez is largely responsible for why the Jets, a team that has made back-to-back AFC Championships, is teetering on the brink of making the playoffs this year. Sanchez needs to improve for the Jets to have any hope of reaching a third-straight championship game, and it speaks volumes that his sub-par efforts this year are still exceeding those of Flacco's. With this lack of production and inconsistency on the offensive end, I don't expect Baltimore to be able to get through the traditional powerhouses in January. The Ravens' offense needs to figure something out in the last few weeks of the season or they may be in for more of the same come playoff time; another quality season culminating in the disappointment and frustration of watching the Steelers and Patriots duke it out.

Related: 2011 NFL Standings | Super Bowl History | AFC Championship Game History

Posted by John Trifone at 11:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)