Three Things Learned in Fantasy Football in 2011
The NFL regular season has come to a close and the fantasy football playoffs have concluded. Aligning with the end of the calendar year, it creates a natural time to be reflective on the on the actual year and in this case, the fantasy football year. As you will likely see many such columns in the next few days or week, I’ll add my unique take on it, which will be applying a bit of statistical engineering to illustrate some conclusions that my otherwise seem unlikely.
One quick disclosure, the numbers used are through Week 16 of the NFL season (the typical week for fantasy championships).
At first, I considered 10 items, but realized it would be 10,000 unbearable words, that’s if I can actually think of 10 interesting things to say. Without further ado, a top 3 list of fantasy “learnings “ from 2011:
1. You should have drafted a tight end in the first round – I’m obviously talking about Rob Gronkowski, whose fantasy performance from tight end position is unparalleled. His scoring, when compared to the top 25 players at the position, was nearly three standard deviations above the mean. That’s effectively saying he’s in the 99%. Gronkowski scored 218 points compared to the average of 94 points for the “average tight end,” or about eight points more per game. Let me put it another way, that’s 14.5 points per game compared to just over six points or 225% more production per game. What’s even more impressive is that Jimmy Graham is also having a phenomenal season. Readjusting the numbers by removing Graham and Gronkowski, the standard deviation of the points scored by player falls from approximately 36 to 18. That effectively puts Gronkowski at a six sigma deviation from mean. What that means in English, is that about 3 times out of a million can you get a dispersion of score like we saw with the tight end production. So you get it, Gronkowski (and Graham to a lesser extent) are wicked good, but what makes them better than a top RB like Arian Foster, or QB like Aaron Rodgers? It probably goes without saying, but although Rodgers or Foster have been exceptionally good, the deviation above mean wasn’t as pronounced because of the dispersion of the group. There is no other player were you are getting over 200% production of the “average player.” Not only should Gronkowski have been a first-round pick, he should have been the first pick.
2. Drafting a running back in the first round is like playing Russian roulette. Did anyone really have Marshawn Lynch as top 5 fantasy RB? – The projected top 4 running backs in some order were: Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson. Only two of whom are in the top 5 at their position this season nor is this a unique phenomenon to this year. By nature of the position, running back is the most volatile position. Every year a few of the top guys slip, some substantially, some slightly, while a fresh new crop of running backs break out on emerging teams. This year, LeSean McCoy has busted out to the be the best fantasy running back. Looking back, in 2009 the top 5 running backs were : Chris Johnson, Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rice and Thomas Jones. In 2010 they were: Foster, Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and Peyton Hillis. And this year: McCoy, Rice , Foster, Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch.
The standard rules of fantasy football drafting were RB/RB in the first two rounds for much too long. Certainly , you’ll see people step out to draft a top QB or WR in the first couple of rounds, but not as much as they should. By human nature, we overvalue our ability to predict (or perhaps we are overvaluing the “experts” ability to predict). Although we try to infer beyond what happened last year, it still becomes the first point of reference to estimate a players value in this year. Due to injury, changing team, fleeting ability, etc. the best running backs change over every year. From 2009 to 2010 Thomas Jones went from 5th to 25th. Charles can’t even be found because of the torn ACL early in the season , and Hillis has had all sort of issues and sits around the 35th best running back. That’s not too mention the much bemoaned struggles of Chris Johnson this year (at least he's in the top 20 . . . but barely). So when you are considering the fourth or fifth running back off the board in the first round of draft you may want to consider . . .
3. We continue to undervalue quarterbacks, especially Tom Brady. First a word of disclosure, I’m a Jets fan, so this makes me sick, but the truth is he is the best QB in the NFL or at least in the world of fantasy football. Excluding 2008 when Brady blew out his knee in the first game of the year, he’s averaged 4,400 yards and 35 TDs every year going back 2007. You can’t get that level of consistency from any other player or any other position. If you didn’t have Brady, Drew Brees or Rodgers, you didn’t win your fantasy league this year. As the NFL makes the rules for a more pass-happy league, this is trend that will continue.
[Editor's note: See more of Steve Woodhull's posts here.]
