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NFC Championship Game (see past results): San Francisco 49ers 27, Atlanta Falcons 17

There’s a fine line between committed and stubborn. I was committed to my preseason NFC champion pick of the Packers last weekend and stubborn in my reluctance to buy into the Falcons. This earned me losses in both of those games last weekend, as the Falcons pulled out a victory from the jaws of defeat, while the Packers defense forgot to the board the flight to San Fran, allowing some record-setting offensive output to the 49ers in their loss.

What seemed apparent though in watching both games is that the 49ers seemed ready for the Super Bowl, and I still have some doubts about the Falcons. I have not been one of those Falcons doubters who say “they have to prove it” with a playoff win or a Super Bowl, etc. I simply have not liked the construct of this team. The best adjective I can come up with -- the Falcons has been fragile, which is the antithesis of the 49ers, who are about as durable and tough a team there is the NFL.

For all the faults of Mike Singletary, he did add talent to the roster and brought in tough players into the 49ers system, such as acquiring Justin Smith from the Bengals, drafting Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis to fill holes in the offensive line, and grabbing raw, but now one of the best linebackers in the NFL in Navarro Bowman too. Albeit it took JimHarbaugh to help this team to excel, he was fortunate to inherit one the most talent-laden rosters in the NFL.

Harbaugh added more tough, Pro Bowl-caliber players on defense, like Whitner and Goldson to the back end of the secondary. Now installing Colin Kaepernick at QB, the 49ers offense has developed to new levels and helped former first-round draft pick, Michael Crabtree play to his potential. The 49ers have arguably more talent across both sides of the ball than any team in the NFL.

For all the commentary about how Matt Ryan hadn’t won in the playoffs until last week and how the Falcons come up short in big games, the reality has been they aren’t a team with depth. Their most talented players are limited to a few skills positions (QB, Tight End, and WR) – their team talent is great for fantasy football, but is not rounded enough to win the playoffs in the NFL.

Ultimately the 49ers have too much talent - I expect them to win with ease.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 07:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

New England Patriots 34, Houston Texans 24

The final game of the weekend, will be the third replay of a regular-season game. When the Patriots beat the Texans back in Week 14, it was the “official” kick-off of Houston season-ending tailspin. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense were able to shred the Houston defense with three decisive touchdowns in their first three drives and they never looked back.

The Texans are a good defensive team, and although they rank sixth in total defense, they are 16th in passing defense and have shown vulnerability against the elite passing teams. In addition to the loss to the Patriots, Houston pass defense was similarly deconstructed by Aaron Rogers and the Packers. Even in a couple of wins (over Denver and Detroit), the Texans pass defense appeared susceptible giving up large chunks of yardage to Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Even with Jonathan Joseph back in the lineup, and Brooks Reed probably in at linebacker, Houston will struggle to stop Brady and company.

Houston’s recipe for success lies in their ability to keep the Patriots off the field and they are well-suited to do that with one of the best running games in the league. In the first meeting, Arian Foster rushed for only 46 yards, as New England got ahead early and the Texans went away from their run game. Foster will get more carries and more yards this go-round as Houston will stay closer early as the Texans will be unwilling to go away from the strength in the run game.

This will be closer and more competitive than the last meeting; however, the final outcome will be similar with too much Patriots offense.

Continue reading "NFL Divisional Round Playoff Game Predictions (Woodhull)" »

Posted by Steve Woodhull at 05:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my predictions for this weekend's playoff games:

Houston Texans 20, Cincinnati Bengals 10

Television and radio personalities have been crushing the Texans the past couple of weeks, as they lost three of their last four, and seem to have universally picked the Texans for an early exit from the playoffs.

Before we prematurely write a Houston obituary, we should keep in mind that those four games were against playoff teams and some of the league’s best competition. Although Houston had some rough games around Thanksgiving (overtime win against the Lions) and the week prior – a shootout with the lowly Jags. The losing started with the Patriots (my pick as best team in the league), then splitting with Colts (weak but more on that in their preview), and a loss to the AP Express-Vikings.

The only loss of those three games that worries me was the Vikings game. Houston could only generate 187 yards of offense and only 34 rushing yards while turning the ball over twice. Meanwhile the Vikings and the Bengals play a similar style of game. On defense, both use a base 4-3 and their D-Lines are anchored by at least one Pro Bowl-caliber tackle, Kevin Williams for the Vikings and Geno Atkins for the Bengals and pass-rushing defensive ends (Jared Allen in Minnesota, Carlos Dunlap in Cincy).

Furthermore Cincinnati's defense has been getting healthier throughout the season; Pat Sims (their other starting tackle) started the year on the PUP list and the aforementioned Dunlap missed time early in the year. Throughout the year, I’ve commented on how I’ve liked the Bengals personnel decisions and they were being overlooked as a playoff contender.

I was even dumb bold enough in the preseason to pick them to win the AFC North. Through the final eight games of the season, the Bengals have allowed the fewest points per game, 13, in the NFL. On offense, A.J. Green is arguably the best young wide receiver in the NFL, and they’ve added other complementary pieces in the offense for Andy Dalton, such as picking up BenJarvus Green-Ellis in free agency, and drafting Jermaine Gresham at tight end.

As much as like this Bengals team, I expect Houston to be able to run the ball and use their play-action pass to move the ball effectively and Wade Phillips will create a defensive package for the game that will be too much for an Andy Dalton-led offense.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 02:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Heading into the final week of the season, three of our five contributors have already made their picks against the spread for Week 17.

While two of our best this season may not be able to send any commentary this morning for different reasons, they have sent their weekly picks.

Steve Woodhull (27-21 ATS this season):
- Indianapolis Colts (+7) over Houston Texans
- Buffalo Bills (-3.5) over New York Jets
- Kansas City Chiefs (+16.5) over Denver Broncos

Sean Beazley (29-19 ATS):
- Dallas Cowboys (+3) over Washington Redskins
- Indianapolis Colts (+7) over Houston Texans
- Detroit Lions (+3) over Chicago Bears

See all of our Week 17 picks here.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 09:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Detroit Lions (+4) over Atlanta Falcons

A bad Eli Manning does not create belief in the Falcons for me. As you may noticed, I’ve been a doubter of the Falcons all season and that hasn’t changed with their victory over a turnover prone and inconsistent Giants team. Even in victory, the Falcons struggled to run the ball against the Giants, which has been a problem all season for the Falcons (28th in the NFL).

Last week, the Lions were a debacle against the Cardinals due to turnovers and are now on a six-game losing streak. Prior to the Cardinals loss, the Lions had been playing better in competitive losses to good teams (Colts, Packers and Texans).

Atlanta needs to come back to earth a little after the big win, and this feels like a game they stub their toe on Saturday night against a Lions team that has more talent than the record would indicate.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 01:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

Green Bay Packers (-3) over Chicago Bears

The Packers offense was surprisingly benign against an average Lions defense last week and this week they face the Bears, ranked fifth in total defense, but the Packers D is the one that will control the game.

However good the Bears defense has been this year, I expect this game to go similar to the Week 2 game in Green Bay. The Bears turned the ball over four times in Week 2, only generated 11 first downs and were never in that game.

Chicago is coming off two straight losses and four out of their last five, and they are in need of a jump start. Now with defensive leader Brian Urlacher shelved with an injury and the offense struggling to generate points, the Bears slide continues.

I like the Packers to win on the road in Chicago and cover the three points.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 11:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Washington Redskins (-2.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Despite how negative I’ve been on the Ravens this year, I was shocked to see the Redskins giving points in this game because the Ravens are still 9-3 and widely consider one of the top five teams in the NFL. And I’ll still pick the Redskins giving the points as I still considered the Ravens overrated.

As I’ve talked about in the past, the Ravens have a hard time stopping the run, which won’t change this week and Washington leads in the NFL in rushing at 167 yards per game. Adding that their best defensive player, Terrell Suggs, is now injured again (torn biceps) and the Redskins are one of the hottest teams in football, this seems like a great spot to pick Washington.

Lastly, despite the actual 9 “W”s in the win the column, the Ravens are only 4-8 against the spread – good teams do find a way to win, but for the Ravens this year it has been just as much tje other team finding a way to lose and that won’t happen this week.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 11:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) over San Diego Chargers

The Chargers gave away their game last week against the Ravens and now the Bengals come to town. The Bengals are riding a three-game winning streak. Cincinnati has been up and down all season, including bad losses to Cleveland and Miami.

However, San Diego is just out-right bad. The Chargers lack leadership in the clubhouse, they need more talent and depth on the offensive line and secondary. This matchup fits well for the Bengals, as they should be able to pass downfield to A.J. Green.

I expect San Diego to roll over without a fight. With the loss bringing their record to 4-8, you can probably starting counting Norv’s Turner remaining tenure in hours. As further motivation for the pick, I love the 1.5-point spread here, as it only takes a field goal to cover.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 04:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 12 picks against the spread:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) over Atlanta Falcons

As you may have noticed, I’ve been down on the Falcons all year, and have mostly been wrong. Even in victory though, Atlanta has continually looked susceptible and after the ugly win last weekend, the Atlanta bandwagon has gotten a bit lighter.

Shouldn’t it cause some alarm that it was debatable who had the better performance last week: the Arizona combination of Ryan Lindley and John Skelton or Matt Ryan? Instead of facing the inept offense of Arizona, this week the Falcons get to travel to Tampa to play Josh Freeman, Doug Martin, and Vincent Jackson.

Tampa has won their last 4 games and average almost 29 points a game, good for fourth in the NFL. I see Bucs extending that streak to five games with a big division win against the Falcons as the Bucs make a run at winning the division outright.

[Editor's note: "Run at winning the division outright?" Did Steve have a little too much Wild Turkey on Thanksgiving?]

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 07:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) over Carolina Panthers

Divisional games on the road are tough, so I’m a little hesitant with this pick, but how can you not like the way the Bucs are playing now? In the preseason, I picked the Bucs to win 10 games, and they are now starting to show the talent that may get them to double-digit wins.

From a matchup perspective, I like what the Bucs can do throwing the ball downfield to Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. On defense, the Bucs have been exposed in the passing game, as the Bucs give up a league worst 321 yards per game; however, the Panthers don’t have any real threats at wide receiver as Steve Smith has lost a step and there is no other complementary pass catcher.

I can see the Bucs scoring early and the Panthers unable to catch up in a shootout.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 08:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:

Houston Texans (+1.5) over Chicago Bears

The sports-commentating world seems pretty equally divided into two camps on Chicago: those that believe and those that don’t believe. I firmly fall into the camp of the non-believers.

The Bears feast on bad teams and turnovers to fuel the scoring, but their offense has been underwhelming. In the first quarter last week, the Bears put up 28 points against the Titans on 40 yards of offense – I’ll repeat that: 28 points with only 40 yards of offense.

This is a Chicago team that is opportunistic, but a sound team like the Texans won’t give the Bears those opportunities. The Texans special teams won’t give up the huge returns that set up short fields, and the offense will control the ball without turning it over.

Chicago’s D could keep them in the game, but I expect the Texans to travel to Chicago and come away with a win.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 02:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my Week 9 NFL picks against the spread:

Detroit Lions (-4.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

For all the problems Detroit still has on special teams, last week they at least found some continuity and the ability to utilize players not name Calvin Johnson in the offense. Spreading the ball around has re-ignited some of the explosiveness we saw last year. The Lions continue to struggle early and fall behind in the fourth quarter, but against the atrocious Jags offense that may not be a problem. Maurice Jones-Drew was the only semblance of offense that Jacksonville has had all year, and as he sits out another week with a sprained foot Jacksonville will struggle to generate offense. The Lions have too much firepower and cover easy.

Houston Texans (-10) over Buffalo Bills

Only one thing you need to know about this game – Buffalo gives up 176 rushing yards per game, worst in the NFL. I can see both Arian Foster and Justin Forsett (since Ben Tate is not expected to play) breaking the century mark in this game. Houston reasserted their dominance of the AFC when they overwhelmed the Ravens and I don’t see them letting off the throttle. The Texans will control the game from start to finish and the only concern about giving double digits is a back-door cover on a late, meaningless, garbage-time score.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over the NY Giants

The Steelers still have some offensive line woes, which can be a scary proposition against arguably the best pass-rushing D-line in the NFL. However, under Todd Haley as offensive coordinator, the Steelers offense is more geared to short passing, and, of course, running the football. In theory, this should neutralize the Giants pass rush and the Steelers after a rocky start have started to get on a bit of roll, both offensively and defensively. On the other hand, the Giants are due for let-down game after a couple of big division wins. On defense, the Steelers will be without Troy Polamalu, however, they will have Ryan Clark at the other safety active, and he is the better of the two in pass defense, which will be critical against Eli Manning.

All of our Week 9 picks will be posted on The Weekly Blitz page as they are made. Also, check out our Week 9 NFL consensus power rankings.

Posted by Steve Woodhull at 07:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my three NFL picks for Week 8:

Cleveland Browns (+3) over San Diego Chargers

You may recount my high expectations of the Browns in my preseason write-up, projecting 8-8. After starting 1-6, I need a near miracle of seven wins in their last nine games to hit .500 for the season. Also, if you’ve been following my picks on this site, you’ll probably notice I rely a lot on statistics. The Browns rank near the bottom in both total defense and total offense, so it’s probably a few weeks late on me giving up on my thought that the Browns would have a turnaround season this year.

But I’m stubborn – is there such a thing as a competitive 1-6 team? I’ve also held on to my preseason belief that the Chargers are a bad team and they are hitting a midseason slump. After dropping two straight games, the Chargers continue their swoon and Browns pick up their second win of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) over Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have looked weak in their wins, but are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL. The Eagles, despite having a couple of impressive wins (Giants and Ravens), have been turnover prone and have several bad losses through six games. The Eagles have enough talent to beat any team in the NFL, but they have been inconsistent and unable to close out opportunities due to ill-timed turnovers and mistakes.

Now, both teams are coming off the bye and will have worked on correcting some of the problems that plague each team. Despite the undefeated record, the Falcons have significant structural problems in their offense and defense. The Falcons can’t run the ball (29th in the NFL) nor can they stop the run on the defense (28th). Those numbers for the Falcons speak to the fact that they can’t control the game and why they had to squeak out close wins against bad teams like the Raiders and the Panthers.

Amazingly, despite the imbalance in win-loss outcomes, the .500 team, the Eagles are giving points in the match-up. I’m not buying into what the Falcons are selling and I must be a sucker as I’m willing to take the Eagles to win giving those points.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts

And the rejuvenation of Chris Johnson continues! Almost 200 yards rushing for Johnson last weekend as the horrendous Buffalo defense has the ability to make any offense look good – just see what the Jets did to the Bills in Week 1.

As for more evidence that the real Chris Johnson will continue to step forward, next up for the Tennessee Titans is the almost as bad Indianapolis Colts defense. Almost as important though, the stability that Matt Hasselbeck brought to the Titans when he replaced the injured Jake Locker at quarterback. The Titans defense is still shaky, but I envision a game like last weekend and the teams trading touchdowns and the Titans push the win streak to three games, winning by a touchdown.

All of our Week 8 picks will be posted on The Weekly Blitz page as they are made. Also, check out our Week 8 NFL consensus power rankings.

Posted by Steve Woodhull at 05:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Here are my 2012 NFC East preseason predictions:

1. Philadelphia Eagles (14-2)

“The Dream Team,” or so they thought last year. I think this year, it’s a little closer to the truth – players are usually not the best evaluators of talent and for all the skill-position ability the Eagles had last year, they were lacking up the middle of the defense and some gaps on the offensive line. Add in the contract disputes (DeSean Jackson) and playing some new defensive schemes (Juan Castillo replacing Jim Johnson as defensive coordinator) in short offseason and they were an average team unable to put it all together against the league’s elite.

So, the question is what’s changed in a year? Well, both a little and lot. The NFL is a game of details, and an extra year of playing together, focusing on the details will be a huge help for the Eagles. As well as adding talent at key positions, such as bringing in DeMeco Ryans at linebacker will improve the defense that struggled at times last year to stop the run. By releasing Asante Samuel, the Eagles will move Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to starting cornerback position, and should serve as an overall upgrade to the defense as rookie Brandon Boykin looks capable to stepping into the slot-corner spot that Rogers-Cromatie filled last year.

Of course,the over-arching story from Eagles training this year, has been the passing of Andy Reid’s son Garrett. Although at the NFL level, there shouldn’t need to be any additional motivation, this tragedy seemed to pull the team close. After such an unfortunate incident, you can’t help but want to play a little harder and be a little more focused for your football fraternity family.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 08:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Statistics are made to lie and in the NFL, no stat lies more than wins. A win is a single piece of data that is the outcome of thousands, if not millions, of variables in a single game of football.

And I always do my best to avoid relying on last year’s win/loss record as a rationale for a team’s success this year. So why would we bring this up when last year in the AFC West three teams tied at 8-8 (and the fourth was 7-9)?

Because no division saw more teams “over achieve” than the AFC West. Although not a great proxy, scoring differential (points for minus points against) can sometimes be used to indicate a team’s “strength” in victory. For example, that 7-9 team (Kansas City) had a point differential of -126, second worst in the AFC. The only team in the AFC that had a worse differential, the 2-14 Indianapolis Colts. The division-winning Broncos were -81, and the only positive team in the AFC West was the San Diego Chargers. So what does this tell us about who’s going to win the AFC West this year?

Probably not much, but I can sure say this division was real bad last year and the teams were “lucky” to even get eight wins.

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Posted by Steve Woodhull at 03:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)