TheDailyBlitz.com

Based on the positive feedback we've received about our Top 150 Cheat Sheets, we've decided to carry over the same concept to weekly positional rankings. Similarly based on our belief that "2 heads are better than 1", we averaged out the weekly rankings of 4 different sites to arrive at a consensus.

To see Week 1 rankings, click on the links below:

Top 25 Fantasy QBs

Top 40 Fantasy RBs

Top 50 Fantasy WRs

Top 20 Fantasy TEs

Top 20 Fantasy Kickers

Top 20 Fantasy Team Defenses

Good luck in week 1...

Posted by edsfootball at 03:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

We have once again updated our Top 150 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet and there wasn't a lot of movement since our last update on August 19th. Here is the new Top 10:

1. Ladainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
3. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
4. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
5. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
6. Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
7. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots
8. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
9. Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys
10. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills

Within the Top 100, here are some notable movers (+/- 10 points since August 19th):

Positive:
#40: Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos - average cheat sheet position improved 14.0 spots
#89: Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins - average cheat sheet position improved 29.3 spots
#97: Patrick Crayton, WR, Cowboys - average cheat sheet position improved 13.2 spots
#100: Maurice Morris, RB, Seahawks - average cheat sheet position improved 25.5 spots

Negative:
#49: Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins - average cheat sheet position declined 12.2 spots

Good luck with your fantasy drafts!

Posted by edsfootball at 09:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

ESPN is reporting that Derek Anderson will be the starting QB vs the Dallas Cowboys to open the season. He has been battling a concussion and his status has been in question. Some fans may still be clamoring for Ohio-born Brady Quinn to get the start. And if he didn't hold out of training camp in 2007, who knows? Quinn might have earned a starting nod in camp and Anderson wouldn't have had the opportunity to take advantage of after Charlie Frye was benched and traded.

"The expectation is 'DA' will be back and ready to go," Savage said.

Let's take a closer look at Derek Anderson's passing numbers:
- In 1/4 of season (games 2, 6, 8 and 10), Anderson threw 14 TDs and only 1 INT
- In 3/4 of season (other 12 games), Anderson threw 15 TDs and 18 INTs

If you are going to make Derek Anderson the 7th QB and 44th overall draft pick taken in your fantasy draft (where he appears in ESPN's Top 200 cheat sheet), you will need greater consistency out of DA. In fact, in his final 7 games of the season, Anderson threw more INTs (10) than TDs (9). And none of those 7 games were against playoff-bound teams.

Even fantasy "gurus" within ESPN expect Anderson to be replaced by Brady Quinn by mid-season. QBs ranked lower than Anderson that I like more: Donovan McNabb at #8 (finished strong and finally healthy) and Jay Cutler #10 (healthy now that he's being treated for diabetes and he's had a strong pre-season).

Posted by edsfootball at 02:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Our new Top 150 Cheat Sheet, which averages out Cheat Sheet positions from ESPN, NFL.com, SI.com, Sportsline, Fox Sports and Yahoo!, was updated 8/19.

Here is the Top 10 (and average cheat sheet position):

1. Ladainian Tomlinson, Chargers (1.0)
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (2.7)
3. Brian Westbrook, Eagles (3.2)
4. Steven Jackson, Rams (4.8)
5. Joseph Addai, Colts (5.3)
6. Tom Brady, Patriots (5.3)
7. Randy Moss, Patriots (8.8)
8. Clinton Portis, Redskins (9.0)
9. Marion Barber III, Cowboys (9.3)
10. Frank Gore, 49ers (10.0)

Click here to see full 150

Posted by edsfootball at 09:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Like weathermen and economists (i.e., experts in their fields), fantasy football experts vary widely in their outlooks.  That is why we believe in the saying, "two heads are better than one."  Actually, in our June 22nd Cheat Sheet, we used opinions from five different sources: ESPN, Sportsline, Fox Sports, NFL.com and KFFL.  Since then, we've grown another "head" including Yahoo! Sports' Big Board in our updated (7/13) Cheat Sheet.

Here are the Top 10:

Ladainian Tomlinson, Chargers

Adrian Peterson, Vikings

Brian Westbrook, Eagles

Tom Brady, Patriots

Steven Jackson, Rams

Joseph Addai, Colts

Randy Moss, Patriots

Clinton Portis, Redskins

Marion Barber III, Cowboys

Larry Johnson, Chiefs

Of the players in the Top 150, the 3 biggest risers are:

TJ Duckett (Seahawks) +18.5

Derrick Ward (Giants) +17.3

Ricky Williams (Dolphins) +17.2

Of the players in the Top 150, the 3 biggest decliners are:

Dominic Rhodes (Colts) -25.7

Jamaal Charles (Chiefs) -15.5

Giants Team Defense -13.3.

Posted by edsfootball at 10:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Before the 2007 season, Rudi Johnson was the model of consistency.  He rushed for exactly 12 TDs in 2004, 2005 and 2006.  A logical expectation for Johnson owners in 2007 was 12.  Instead, they got 3 due to several reasons including a hamstring injury that limited Rudi to 9 starts.

Heading into 2008, expectations for Johnson have been greatly reduced.  In ESPN fantasy football leagues, Johnson's average draft pick (ADP) is 52.9.  In Yahoo fantasy football leagues, Johnson's ADP is 96.2, more than 4 rounds lower than in ESPN leagues.  Johnson appears on ESPN's Berry's Players I Hate list for 2008.

Nobody seems to love Johnson.  That's partly why I do.

I'm NOT saying that Rudi Johnson will be more productive than LT, Marshawn Lynch or Brandon Jacobs.  But there is plenty of value in scooping up Johnson as your 3rd or even 4th RB.

According to Geoff Hobson at Bengals.com: "Johnson says he came in last month at 225 pounds, about 10 to 15 more than last year, and the word is he's regained the pop in his swivel."

After losing guys like Eric Steinbach, the Bengals offensive line is not as good as it was when Johnson was piling up (mind you in a very boring way) 1300-1450 yards and 12 TDs year in, year out.  But last year the Bengal's OL was plagued with injuries as well.  The OL should be much healthier heading into 2008.

In addition, Pete Prisco of CBS Sportsline named Stacy Andrews as his #1 breakout player for 2008 saying: "He went into that season as a backup, but injuries gave him 13 starts. He now goes into this season listed as the starting right tackle, ahead of 13-year veteran Willie Anderson. By season's end, he just might be the best right tackle in the AFC."

Let me be clear: I do NOT expect 1400 yards and 12 TDs from Johnson in 2008.  But I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson bounces back with an 1100-yard and 9-TD season.  Not a bad return for a guy snagged in the 10th round of your Yahoo Fantasy draft.

Posted by edsfootball at 09:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

In fantasy football seasons past, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson wouldn't be available at their 2008 average draft pick slots.

Steve Smith is the 7th and 6th WR drafted in ESPN and Yahoo Leagues, respectively. His ADP is 28th and 23rd, respectively.

• Last year, Steve Smith didn't have the kind of season you would expect from what was most likely the #1 WR taken in your draft, especially from weeks 8-15. In that span, his best game was 72 receiving yards. He didn't have a TD during that span.

• This year, Jake Delhomme is back. According to Smith, Delhomme's arm seems stronger although I'm sure Smith would probably say that he still can't be outthrown. Delhomme got hurt week 3 last year. What did Smith do weeks 1 and 2? 7 rec, 118 yds, 1 TD and 8 rec, 153 yds, 3 TDs.

Chad Johnson is the 11th and 10th WR drafted in ESPN and Yahoo Leagues, respectively. His ADP is 33rd and 32nd, respectively.

• Chad cried wolf. He made some strong demands and he was (like always really) very vocal about those demands. What's Ocho Cinco's tune these days: "I love you Cincinnati". On ESPN in an interview with Stephen A. Smith, Smith asked Johnson about his relationship with Carson Palmer and Chads response was "Carson loves me".

• If everything is as "normal" (I use that word loosely) with Chad and Cincy, he's been extremely consistent and extremely productive. Look at his last 3 years:

  • 2005: 97 rec, 1432 yds, 9 TDs

  • 2006: 87 rec, 1369 yds, 7 TDs

  • 2007: 93 rec, 1440 yds, 8 TDs

Looking back at the 2008 fantasy season, which WR will give you the greatest opportunity to say "I told you so" to all the doubters? 

Although I think both will, it will be especially so with Chad Johnson.  While he'll likely be a pain in the ass for Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer all season, he's not likely to pester you or me to trade him to "The Kalamazoo Killers" or "The Steel Curtain".  And if he ever did, that's a much better story than telling people you won your fantasy football league.

But imagine a draft that gets you some combo of RB-WR-RB in the 1st 3 rounds and you take Chad Johnson in the 4th round as your 2nd WR.  Although the Bengals have standed their ground (which I admire), there's no chance (barring injury) that Johnson doesn't play at all.  Regardless of whether Johnson plays somewhere else (although not expected) or plays with a pout, what's the least an owner can expect from him?  1000 yards and 6 TDs.  That still would put him in the Top 20 (most likely).  I think 1300 / 7 is most likely.  But I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out and plays with a monster chip on his shoulder and puts up something like 1500 / 10.  Without the off-season debacle, Johnson would have been in the top 3-4 WRs taken in drafts.

Drew Rosenhaus, Chad's agent, won't let this situation develop into what happened with T.O. in Philly.  He knows firsthand how much of a mistake that would be.  So, if you can take Ocho Cinco where he's currently being drafted, get ready to say "Championship". 

Posted by edsfootball at 01:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Matthew Berry of ESPN says this in his Players I Love / Players I Hate column: "My friend Merril Hoge tells me Davis can't run a route to save his life. Stats seem to back him up. And the Martz offense doesn't use a tight end all that much. Too much hype, too little production..."  You probably aren't surprised that Davis falls on his "Players I Hate" side.

Right now, Vernon Davis appears in the 8-10 range on most site's positional rankings for TEs.  Last season, I projected (and correctly for a change) that Jason Witten would finish in the Top 2 of fantasy TEs and that it would be smart to target him as a possible trade target before others realized his true value.  I think Vernon Davis will enjoy the same fate in 2008. 

Mike Martz sums up why:

"I don't know if anyone in the league can run like he can at that position," Martz, the 49ers' first-year offensive coordinator, said of Davis. "He gets down the field so fast. I don't know who beats him in a footrace."

Martz said none of his offensive players worked harder this spring than Davis, who was on the field before practice started and hung around after it ended to hone his receiving skills.

With the lack of a big-time WR (Bryant Young, Isaac Bruce, Ashley Lelie, Arnaz Battle are the top 4 WRs), I expect Martz to utilize Davis like and as a WR.  If he's working as hard as Martz says on his receiving skills, this 3rd-year TE might reach full stride in 2008.  And, once he does, there's no stopping him. 

Posted by edsfootball at 09:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

In '04, Jason Witten, 980 yards receiving, trailed only Tony Gonzalez. Antonio Gates was 3rd. In fact, his 2004 production (980 yards and 61.2 ypg) would have led ALL TEs in 2006. (Last year, Gates led with 924 yds and Gonzalez with 60.0 ypg.)

He obviously won't maintain his week 1 pace (116 yds) and end the season with 1856 (116 x 16), but I bet he will surpass his 2004 career bests for 3 reasons:

First: Tony Romo. Witten doesn't need to stay in and block for an immobile QB and Romo/Witten seem to have more chemistry than one would expect when a QB has only started 12 regular season games.

Second: Terry Glenn. While Glenn's absence may affect the Cowboys offense overall, his absence makes Witten the recipient of more looks as he becomes the #2 target behind T.O. 

Third: even though he's a fifth-year veteran, did you know he is only 25 y.o.? That's the age of many 3rd-year players, the season where many receivers typically come into their own.

But in most fantasy drafts, he was the 8th-12th TE taken. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the 2nd most productive TE this season behind Gates. Maybe it's time to make a move (i.e., trade offer) before others realize his true value.

1100 yds + 10 TDs in '07?  Why not?  1100 yds is only 120 more than he had at 22 y.o.  120 yds over 16 games is only 7.5 ypg more.  Unrealistic?  Don't think so.

Posted by edsfootball at 08:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Most likely you've had your fantasy football draft by now.  Or perhaps I should say drafts...since fantasy football teams are like potato chips - you can't have just one. 

Of course, having a solid draft (especially in the middle-to-late rounds) could make or break your team, but that's only half the battle.  Managing your team throughout the season is equally as important as nabbing that sleeper you were targeting in the 12th round.

Whenever I talk to fellow fantasy football team owners, it seems that everyone loves their team(s) in the pre-season.  And there is certainly some Ocho Cinco-esque trash talkin' going on as you have your checklist of the victims that have to face you week-to-week.

(There is a study I recall reading when studying for the CFA exams that demonstrated investor's psychology although it wasn't directly related to investing.  It went something like 80% of all drivers think they are above-average.  Are you an above-average driver?  Of course, you are.  Despite the mathematical impossibility, it's my unvalidated hunch that more than 80% think they are above-average at drafting a fantasy football team.  Test it out.  Ask 10 of your friends if they are above-average.  Let me know if more than 2 say no.)

Then reality sinks in.  They start playing some football. And your top RB rushes for 37 yards on 19 carries.  Meanwhile an undrafted #4 WR comes from nowhere and goes off to the tune of 9 grabs for 125 yards and 2 TDs.  Who hasn't been tempted to quickly add the undrafted WR?  And how many times is Week 1 the best performance he has the entire season?

In some instances, you find a diamond in the rough (a la Marques Colston of the Saints), but normally these type of players don't pan out and you end up dumping a better player for a one-week wonder.  If you've ever invested in a mutual fund, you've undoubtedly heard the disclaimer "past performance is no guarantee of future returns".  Although LT, Addai and Rudi Johnson are going to give you solid production week in and week out, that rule certainly applies in the cases of previously unestablished consistency.

Despite the temptations, my advice to everyone out there is to "prey" don't "pray".  Do "prey" - go after the #1 RB that only had 37 yards (through trade proposals) but will probably smooth out his performance with solid weeks ahead to average things out.  Don't "pray" - chase a performance that is likely to hit a wall worse than a college kid returning from a carb-loaded lunch to go to Intro to 13th Century Art at 1 p.m.  To use another investing adage, "buy low, sell high."

Since fantasy owner's emotions can swing so wildly in the opposite direction (from draft-day elation to a Week 1 ego deflation), be ready to scoop up the other team's "trash" that will soon become your "treasure".  Happy Hunting!

Posted by edsfootball at 11:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)