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It's already 2012 in many places around the world; here in the northeast U.S., we are less than 12 hours away from the ball dropping in Times Square to ring in the New Year.

What a year it has been!

One of the common things to do at the end of the year (or beginning of the subsequent year) is to reflect on the year that was. For us at Eat, Drink and Sleep Football, it was a good year.

Not only did I finish as the third-most accurate fantasy football expert for 2011 (through Week 16 and via FantasyPros.com), I have covered on more than 70 percent (31-13 with four pushes) of my weekly picks against the spread (ATS) this season.

Along with the other two "handicappers" on our site, we have covered on 61 percent of our picks and all three of us are locked in at over .500 on the season regardless of what happens in the final week.

Since we each pick three games per week, I would still finish at 66.0 percent ATS this season even if I went 0-3 ATS in the final week. If I go 3-0, however, I would finish 72.3 percent ATS. My official goal is to cover two-thirds of my three weekly picks and if I do that this week, I will finish at 70-plus percent for the full year.

Ok, enough talking about what I (we) have done. In our what-have-you-done-for-me-lately society, none of that really matters. You care about this week.

So, here are my Week 17 picks against the spread:

Baltimore Ravens (-2) over Cincinnati Bengals

This is a critical game for both teams. If the Bengals win, they're in the playoffs, which would be a remarkable feat considering the situation with quarterback Carson Palmer and ultimately starting a rookie quarterback with virtually no offseason.

For the Ravens, however, it could be even more important. As the only AFC North team to make the postseason in each of the three previous seasons, the Ravens have had to play all of their playoff games on the road during that span as a wildcard team.

A win in Week 17, however, will clinch the division (and a first-round bye). And in the unlikely scenario that the Patriots also lose to the Bills, the Ravens would secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Ironically, the Ravens need to win on the road to secure a home playoff game for the first time since the 2006 season. Over the past three seasons, the Ravens are 21-3 (8-0 in 2011) at home and 11-12 (3-4 in 2011) on the road. There is plenty of reason for them to do whatever it takes to win this game and the division.

In their past six games, Ray Rice has 20-plus carries in all five of those games (all wins). In the loss (to San Diego), Rice had 19 touches (10 carries plus a season-high nine receptions). I think Cam Cameron will make sure Rice gets a heavy workload; if not, Terrell Suggs will surely let him know.

[Note: the Ravens could clinch the division with a loss (if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland) and the Bengals could clinch a playoff berth with a loss depending on the tie-breakers.]

Denver Broncos (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs

Boy, I was certainly wrong last week when I took the Broncos over the Bills. And Kyle Orton would love nothing more than to return to Denver to stick it to his former team and their Tebow-billboard-buying fans.

While Tim Tebow is not the league's most accurate passer by any stretch of the imagination, his career-worst four-interception performance was an anomaly. And their defense is not as bad as they have looked as they have allowed 40-plus points in back-to-back games.

Granted, Orton is playing better (599 yards in past two games) than Tyler Palko, but the Chiefs offense lacks firepower, especially since losing Jamaal Charles for the season in Week 2. For eight consecutive games, the Chiefs have scored less than 20 points and only the Rams rank lower in scoring offense than the Chiefs.

The Broncos control their own destiny as a win clinches the AFC West and the atmosphere at Mile High will be electric. Take the Broncos and give the points.

New York Jets (+3) over Miami Dolphins

Although the Jets do not control their own destiny in the AFC for the No. 6 seed, they absolutely need to win this game to remain alive. After that point, they need a ton of help.

Having made it to the final two AFC Championship games (see past results), the Jets have some recent history in performing well on the road in important games.

Dolphins running back Reggie Bush has been as good as it gets over the past four weeks. During that span, he has four straight 100-yard games including his 203-yard performance and no running back has more rushing yards than Bush during that span. That said, Bush has been ruled out for this week's game.

In addition, the Dolphins are without left tackle Jake Long, who was placed on injured reserve, and the Jets have the Jordan-esque Darrelle Revis to limit the playmaking ability of Brandon Marshall.

While the Jets may not win this game (and ultimately it may not matter considering the tie-breakers needed), I expect the Jets to at least keep the game close, especially if Mark Sanchez does not throw it 59 times this week.

For all of our Week 17 picks including our other two handicappers, click here.

If you're looking for our fantasy football rankings for Week 17, you'll find them here.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 12:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

It's great to have a lot of meaningful football on Christmas Eve. And I'm here to deliver to you what former-49ers head coach Mike Singletary would have wanted for Christmas: "Winners."

Picking three games against the spread each week, it's difficult to have a .500 week, which is exactly what I had last week with a win (Saints), a loss (Texans) and a push (Bengals).

On the season, however, I am 29-12-4 (70.7 percent) against the spread (ATS).

Here are my three Week 16 picks:

Denver Broncos -3 over Buffalo Bills

Going into this week's games, the Broncos control their destiny with a one-game lead in the AFC West even after last week's loss to the Patriots. The Broncos did not match up well with the Patriots, but they do against the Bills.

In their past three games, the Bills have allowed three 100-yard rushers including Miami' Reggie Bush, who rushed for a career-high 203 yards last week. During that three-game span, the Bills have allowed running backs to rush 95 times for a total of 575 yards (6.05 yards per carry) and four touchdowns.

Only the Bucs (20) and Colts (19) have allowed more rushing touchdowns this season than the Bills (16).

With a healthy Willis McGahee, Lance Ball and Tim Tebow, not a "running back" despite what Brian Urlacher calls him, the Broncos should be able to run all over the Bills today.

Philadelphia Eagles +1 over Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has said he's "scared." Should he be?

With all of the preseason hype, some of it self-created with nicknames like the "Dream Team," the Eagles have not lived up to expectations. But at 6-8, they are still alive in the NFC East playoff picture and they beat the Cowboys convincingly in their first matchup this season.

The Eagles have historically been a pass-first team and they have plenty of weapons to help them strike quick, but they are running the ball effectively behind LeSean McCoy, who ranks second in the NFL in rushing and has a total of 20 touchdowns in the first 14 games.

While the Eagles will be without Asante Samuel, a positive for the Cowboys in the passing game, the status of Cowboys running back Felix Jones (hamstring) is very questionable, which means they may or will have to rely on Sammy Morris.

Take the point as the Eagles continue to roll.

Miami Dolphins +9.5 over the New England Patriots

Like last week, I thought about going with the Chargers this week. The status of receiver Vincent Jackson caused me to reconsider although I would take the Chargers and the points if I had to pick that game.

Instead I'm taking the Dolphins. As noted earlier, the Dolphins got a 200-yard performance from Reggie Bush last week, but Bush has three straight 100-yard games. It may be more difficult for him to rush for 100-plus yards this week, but the Patriots secondary is vulnerable.

No team has allowed more passing yards than the Patriots this year and Chad Henne threw for 416 yards in their first matchup. (Of course, Tom Brady threw for more than 500 yards in that game.) I like Miami's balance on offense and they are playing well (5-2 in their past seven games.)

While I don't expect Miami to win this game, I expect them to keep it close.

For all of our Week 16 picks including our other two handicappers, click here. If you're looking for our fantasy football rankings for Week 16, you'll find them here.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

If you have paid attention to my NFL picks against the spread (ATS) this season, you know that I pick exactly three games week in and week out.

The goal is to finish 2-1 ATS (or better) every week and I have exceeded my goal on a year-to-date basis.

In fact, if I have three losing weeks to close out the regular season, I would still finish at nearly 65 percent (64.6) ATS. As previously stated, that is NOT the goal, of course.

On the season, I am now 28-11-3 (71.3 percent) ATS through the first 14 weeks and find myself in a position where I like several (more than three) games, but I don't love any of them. Narrowing down this week's picks to only three was tough.

For example, I like the San Diego Chargers to cover and win outright on Sunday Night Football over the Ravens, who have been inconsistent on the road this season (losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle). Despite their bad start (or technically bad middle since they started 4-1), the Chargers and quarterback Philip Rivers have once again gotten their post-November groove back. It's almost as inexplicable as the Tim Tebow-led post-third-quarter comebacks in Denver.

But I've decided not to go with this game as one of my three games for the week. Here are my three NFL picks against the spread for Week 15:

New Orleans Saints (-7) over Minnesota Vikings

With Vikings running back Adrian Peterson listed as probable on the team's injury report, he's expected to return after missing the past three games with a high-ankle sprain. Peterson is one of the league's best running backs and teammate Percy Harvin has been playing as well as any receiver in the league recently.

While the Vikings' offense should be fine, can they stop or at least slow down the Saints' high-powered offense?

It's highly unlikely.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (4,368) and is on a record-setting pace. In fact, Brees needs to average less passing yards than his worst performance of the season for the final three games to break Dan Marino's single-season record. Through 13 games, Brees has thrown for 300-plus yards 10 times.

No team has allowed more passing touchdowns (26) than Minnesota, who is tied with the winless Colts for a league-worst six interceptions.

With the 49ers having an edge based on the tie-breakers for the No. 2 seed (and first-round bye), the Saints will be fully motivated to take the lead (at least for a day until the 49ers host the Steelers on Monday Night Football) as Brees puts on an offensive clinic.

Houston Texans (-6) over Carolina Panthers

While both teams are starting rookie quarterbacks, their paths to get the starting nod are much different. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was the first pick in this year's draft, has started from Day 1 and should be the league's NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (see past winners).

Texans quarterback T.J. Yates, the team's fifth-round pick out of North Carolina, is starting out of necessity as Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart both suffered season-ending injuries. That said, Yates threw his first-ever 300-yard game as the Texans clinched the AFC South and their first-ever playoff berth last week.

While I don't expect a repeat performance from Yates, the Texans should be able to run the ball extremely well against a bad Panthers run defense. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate both rushed for 100-plus yards in this game like they did against the Browns in Week 9. Foster has eight 100-yard games (five rushing and three receiving) and Tate has four 100-yard games.

As well as Newton has played, the Texans have the league's top-ranked defense (274.9 yards allowed per game) and they are top four in both rushing and passing defense. Against a team like Carolina that has one elite receiver, Jonathan Joseph should be able to contain Steve Smith and force the other (much less talented) Panthers receivers to step up.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over St. Louis Rams

Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is listed as doubtful for this week's game, which means the Rams will likely go with Kellen Clemens, who has 33 pass attempts from 2008 to 2011.

That said, the Rams offense has not been particularly explosive regardless of who has been under center. No team has scored fewer points than the Rams (11.8 yards per game). Against the league's seventh-ranked defense (314.8 YPG allowed), that trend is unlikely to change.

On the other hand, the Rams run defense has been particularly bad this season. No team has allowed more rushing yards (156.8 per game) than the Rams and the Rams are one of three teams to allow an average of at least five yards per carry this season.

The Bengals have struggled recently in large part due to the level of their competition. In their past five games, they are 1-4, but those four losses have all come against 10-win teams (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore and Houston).

Look for the Bengals to bounce back big against the woeful Rams.

For all of our Week 15 picks including our other two handicappers, click here.

Based on the accuracy results tracked by FantasyPros.com, I have been the most accurate "fantasy football expert" through the first 14 weeks of the year. If you're looking for our fantasy football rankings for Week 15, you'll find them here.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 12:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

In picking three NFL games against the spread (ATS) for "entertainment purposes only" every week, last week was very "entertaining."

To borrow and alter a phrase from Charlie Sheen, I was "tri-winning."

Finishing 3-0 ATS last week and improving to 26-10-3 (72.2 percent) ATS on the season, I threw in an extra pick (not counted in stats) writing that I thought that the Patriots would beat the Colts but that the Colts would cover the 20-plus point spread, which is exactly what happened.

With a solid record, I'm now tempted to pull a Jose Reyes and pick only one game to maintain my cover percentage. But, of course, I won't.

Here are my three picks against the spread for Week 14:

San Diego Chargers (-7) over Buffalo Bills

The recent success of the San Diego Chargers in the month of December has been widely publicized. With quarterback Philip Rivers under center, San Diego is 21-3 in December (and 3-0 in January during the regular season).

Against a depleted Jaguars secondary, Rivers threw for 294 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on Monday Night Football. He now has back-to-back games with no interceptions and a full complement of offensive skill players healthy and back in the lineup.

While the Chargers have been inconsistent and bad this season, the Bills have struggled recently as well. After getting off to a 4-1 start, the Bills have lost six of seven games including their past five games. During their five-game losing streak, they have scored more than 20 points only once.

While the Chargers have struggled with the health of their offensive line, the Bills have recorded a league-low 17 sacks this season. Earlier in the season, the Bills were creating plenty of turnovers, but they have only four takeaways in their past five games. Only the Colts have less.

Perhaps I'm making too many assumptions, but I like Rivers to pick apart the Bills secondary and continue his December dominance.

New York Giants (+4) over Dallas Cowboys

Coming into this week's key divisional matchup, the Giants are losers of four straight games (to quality opponents). While there may not be any moral victories in the NFL, the Giants have to feel as good as one could expect after a close loss to the unbeaten and reigning champion Packers.

On the other hand, the Cowboys are coming off an inexplicable loss to the Cardinals in overtime. While the Cowboys may technically be in control of the NFC East with a one-game lead over the Giants, you can almost sense the division slipping out of their hands.

After all, December hasn't exactly been their month (unlike the Chargers).

The Giants have won four of their past six matchups over the past three years. Even if the Cowboys win this game, however, it wouldn't surprise me if it's decided by a field goal or less.

More than anything, this game is a hunch, but I would take the points and the mentally tougher team here.

San Francisco 49ers (-4) over Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have two things going for them: (1) they have won four of their past five games and (2) they likely won't face 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis. However, the Cardinals only loss during that stretch was to San Francisco, 23-7.

That said, the 49ers have the league's top-ranked scoring defense and run defense. No running back has gained more than 64 yards against them and no running back has rushed for a touchdown against them. Considering Beanie Wells is dealing with an assortment of injuries himself, I don't expect the Cards to buck the trend even if Willis does not play.

While running back Frank Gore has not run the ball as well as he did during his five-game streak of games with 100-plus yards, only four players have more receiving yards than Michael Crabtree (270) in his team's past three games. In his last matchup against them, Crabtree, who is a start in our Start'em, Sit'em this week, had a season-high 120 receiving yards.

The great thing about the 49ers and Jim Harbaugh is you know he's not going to let up at any point. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers had a big lead and Harbaugh called timeout with 10 seconds to go to call a flea flicker.

For the rest of our Week 14 picks, click here. If you're looking for our fantasy football rankings for Week 14, you'll find them here.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 01:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Beating the Vegas bookies isn't an easy thing to do. Most people try to look at many variables in a matchup to make as informed of a decision as possible, but it often comes down to a gut feeling that the spread is either too many or too few points. And so we make our wagers, cross our fingers, and hope to be right. This week, I decided to take a look into some trends and numbers to see if I could find any games that stuck out as a good bet. As it turns out, the Seahawks, playing in this week's Monday Night Football game, could be the bet of the week.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a big win at home this past Thursday night. Seattle is 7-4-1 against the spread (ATS) this year, posting a 4-2 mark at home. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, including a cover against Dallas and outright wins against the Ravens, Eagles, and Rams in St. Louis. The Rams, on the other hand, are just 2-10 ATS so far, and 1-5 on the road. They are 0-3 in the division and have lost three games in a row. (Just as an FYI, had I written a By the Numbers column last week, the feature game would have been the San Francisco 49ers hosting these same St. Louis Rams. San Francisco had been 9-1-1 ATS and 5-0-1 at home, and I've already shared the Rams abysmal record with you. Suffice it to say, the 49ers easily covered the 14-point spread, en route to a 26-0 victory.)

The Seahawks are also in the top half of the league or better in overall team defense, including total points, yards, and yards against the run, ranking 12th, 14th, and 11th respectively. Though they have a mediocre 5-7 record, their defense has been stable and consistent. This does not bode well for the Rams, who are scoring a putrid 11.7 points per game. They are, not surprisingly, last in scoring offense, as well as 31st in total yards per game.

Throw in the fact that Seattle's Marshawn Lynch has been on fire of late and will be matching up against a 24th-ranked Rams defense, and give Seattle three extra days to prepare for the game, and this one looks like a slam dunk bet on Seattle. The preliminary spread for this game was Seattle -6.5, but the game has been taken off the board pending injury updates. Certainly look for status updates on EDSfootball.com, and keep in mind that no matter how good a bet may look, to quote the great Chris Berman, "that's why they play the games." But strictly by the numbers, this one looks like the Seahawks all the way.

Posted by John Trifone at 09:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Let's face it: the Colts are awful without Peyton Manning.

They rank dead last in scoring defense (29.7 points allowed per game) and 30th (of 32 teams) in scoring offense (13.6 points per game).

And there is little doubt that the Patriots are capable of beating down the Colts by 50-plus points as the Saints did on national television earlier in the year. With no love lost between these two teams, there would be no expectation for a Bill Belichick to take his foot off the pedal at any point if/when the Patriots are crushing the Colts.

That said, giving more than 20 points to another NFL team is too risky. After all, only twice has a favorite of 20-plus points covered the spread in nine matchups although they have won all of them straight up.

On the other hand, there is no way that I can trust a Colts team that has failed to win a game this year and is switching to Dan Orlovsky as its quarterback. Granted, Curtis Painter is no Peyton Manning, but I'm not sure that Dan Orlovsky is even a Curtis Painter.

If I had to pick this game, I would expect a Patriots victory and a Colts cover, but I am avoiding this game at all costs.

Here are my three picks for Week 13:

Miami Dolphins (-3) over Oakland Raiders

Over the past four weeks, the Dolphins are nearly perfect and had many opportunities last week to keep their winning streak alive although they lost by one point to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Either way, Miami has the added benefit of three extra days to rest and prepare for the Oakland Raiders, who are making a cross-country trip for an early game.

The Raiders will be without wide receivers Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford in addition to Darren McFadden for another week. While Michael Bush has shown that he is more than capable of picking up the slack in the running game, Carson Palmer has only one passing touchdown in his past two games and the Dolphins have allowed only two passing touchdowns in their past four games.

Miami's run defense is one of the league's best as they have allowed only 97.5 yards per game and only the 49ers have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns than the Dolphins (three). On the other hand, Oakland has allowed a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry and are giving up 135.3 rushing yards per game.

While Miami's defense is playing much better over their past four games, so is the offense under quarterback Matt Moore. In his past four games, Moore has a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and he's completing more than 67 percent of his passes during that span.

New York Jets (-3) over Washington Redskins

While I don't trust Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez, I trust Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman even less although the Jets have allowed six touchdown passes and have no interceptions in their past three games.

Redskins running back Roy Helu is coming off the first 100-yard rushing game of his career (although he had a 100-yard receiving game four weeks ago). While coach Mike Shanahan has indicated that Helu will get a heavy workload again, the Jets have been much better against the run recently than they were at the beginning of the season.

Excluding quarterbacks and wide receivers, the Jets have allowed running backs to rush for only 3.23 yards per carry (141 attempts for 456 yards) since Week 6.

With five games to go, the Jets are 6-5 and one game behind the Bengals, who have a tough matchup on the road in Pittsburgh, for the final playoff spot. In other words, the Jets are right in the thick of things as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. On the other hand, the Redskins are unlikely to make the postseason even in the very unlikely event that they win out.

The Jets are 10-4 against the spread (ATS) in their past 14 games versus teams with a losing record while the Redskins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games overall.

[Our Poll of the Day: Will Helu have more carries than Tim Tebow this week?]

Houston Texans (+3) over Atlanta Falcons

Although I picked the Jets over the Redskins, it's hard to resist taking a home underdog, especially when that team is 8-3 and tied for the best record in the AFC.

Granted, the Texans are without starting quarterback Matt Schaub and backup quarterback Matt Leinart, but is there a big dropoff between Leinart and rookie quarterback T.J. Yates? To me, Yates looked as good as (if not better than) Leinart last week. That said, the Texans offense has tons of talent surrounding Yates to compensate for the loss of the Matts.

Texans running back Arian Foster has four 100-yard rushing games as does backup Ben Tate and Foster has three 100-yard receiving games. While the Falcons are one of three teams to not allow a 100-yard rusher this season, they face their toughest challenge with the talent of the Texans' backs. (The Niners and Patriots are the other two teams yet to allow a 100-yard rusher.)

For the Falcons, they are dealing with injuries themselves. Running back Michael Turner and receiver Julio Jones were limited participants in practice on Friday and are listed as questionable on the team's injury report. In addition, the team will be without its best cornerback Brent Grimes.

Either way, the Texans defense is much improved from last year as they rank second in scoring defense (16.3 points allowed per game) and first in overall defense (268.4 yards allowed per game). They rank second in sacks (35) and are tied for sixth in interceptions (15).

For the rest of our Week 13 picks, click here.

If you're looking for our fantasy football rankings for Week 13, you'll find them here.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 03:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Every week, I pick three NFL games against the spread (ATS) and last week was a week to forget.

Despite finishing 0-2-1 ATS last week, my season record through Week 11 is still 22-8-3 (73.3 percent) ATS and it was only my second losing week on the season.

As a corporate trainer by day, I always advise folks to not change their answers on the industry exam for which I prepare them to take. That said, I ignored my own advice as I wrote a complete rationale as to why I thought the Packers would win last week, but that the Buccaneers would cover. Instead I changed that selection to the Jaguars over the Browns.

I won't make that mistake again. (If I lose, it will be with my first choice.)

Here are my Week 12 picks against the spread:

Detroit Lions +6.5 (over Green Bay Packers)

The Lions have long hosted the first Thanksgiving Day game. However, it's been a long time since this game has meant anything. Going into today's game, however, the Lions are in control of their playoff destiny as they would be a wildcard team if the season ended yesterday. And, of course, the Packers have not lost in 16 consecutive games going back to their Super Bowl run.

Although the Packers are clearly the best team in football (and the unanimous choice as No. 1 in our Power Rankings), I have a strong preference for taking home teams on Thursday games, especially when they are nearly a touchdown underdog.

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off a five-touchdown come-from-behind performance against the Panthers. But Detroit has repeatedly shown its ability to overcome large deficits this season and that may come in handy versus the Packers' high-powered offense even though I think the Lions will keep it close. Although the league's best wide receiver missed practice on Tuesday, Calvin Johnson is listed as probable on the injury report for Thursday's game.

Throughout the year, I have continuously pointed out how poor the Panthers are in stopping running backs so I wouldn't expect Kevin Smith to have a repeat performance of last week's surprise 201-yard game. At the same time, I feel that Smith gives the Lions more balance in their offense than they had with Maurice Morris as the primary ball-carrier.

Look for the Lions defensive line to put some pressure on All-World quarterback Aaron Rodgers and take the Lions and the points here as this game goes down to the wire.

Dallas Cowboys -7 (over Miami Dolphins)

The Dolphins bring their three-game winning streak to Cowboys Stadium. Undoubtedly, you have seen replays this week of the Leon Lett feet-first slide into the ball on the blocked field goal attempt on Thanksgiving in 1993 over and over again. (Fortunately there is no snow in the forecast.)

While the Dolphins are playing better football, so are the Cowboys, who have their own three-game winning streak. Unlike Miami, however, the Cowboys have their sights on the playoffs as Dallas is in a tie with the Giants at the top of the NFC East.

Not surprisingly, both starting quarterbacks have played well during their teams' three-game winning streaks. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has an 8:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 112-plus in all three wins. Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore has a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has completed more than 70 percent of his passes during that span.

That said, the Cowboys have been much better at forcing turnovers this season. Dallas' defense has 14 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles this season while Miami's defense has only five interceptions and six forced fumbles.

In addition, the Cowboys have more offensive firepower than the Dolphins even though Reggie Bush has been playing well. DeMarco Murray has provided the Cowboys with legitimate balance in their running-passing attack.

Houston Texans -3.5 (over Jacksonville Jaguars)

Aside from Maurice Jones-Drew, who has 80-plus rushing yards in nine of 10 games this year, the Jaguars have virtually no offense. After all, the only reason Blaine Gabbert's 201 passing yards from last week seems like a success is that it ended his four-game streak of 118 yards or less. In eight career starts, Gabbert has thrown for 200-plus yards only twice. Ultimately an offense's effectiveness is judged by the points it scores and only the Rams are scoring (12.0 points per game) less than the Jaguars (12.5 PPG).

Regardless of the defense they face, the Jaguars struggle to score. But the Texans are currently ranked No. 1 in overall defense (269.7 yards allowed per game). I've always said that Wade Phillips (although a bad head coach) is a great defensive coordinator. Last year, the Texans allowed almost the same total in passing yards alone and they ranked 30th in the league in total defense.

To be fair, I think Matt Leinart stinks and the loss of Matt Schaub hurts (a lot). With the return of Andre Johnson, one of the league's most gifted wide receivers, and arguably the league's best rushing attack, however, Leinart will be counted on to "manage" the game. (We don't care if we offend Jim Harbaugh's sports sensibility.")

In his past seven games, Arian Foster has four 100-yard rushing games and three 100-yard receiving games. Backup Ben Tate has four 100-yard rushing games on the season. Here's another way to look at the effectiveness of the Texans rushing offense: Foster and Tate both rank in the top 11 in rushing (or ahead of Baltimore's Ray Rice, who is 12th in the league).

Coming off their bye, the Texans and Phillips will throw the kitchen sink at Gabbert as the Texans win this divisional matchup easily.

For all of the Week 12 picks by our three handicappers, check out The Weekly Blitz home page.

If you're looking for fantasy football rankings, here are our Week 12 fantasy rankings. (FYI: Through 11 weeks, I am ranked as the third-most accurate "fantasy football expert" by FantasyPros.com.)

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Good luck in Week 12!

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Throughout the season, I pick three NFL games versus the spread with the goal to finish 2-1 (or better) for the week.

Finishing 3-0 against the spread (ATS) last week, I improved to 22-6-2 (78.6 percent) ATS through the first ten weeks of the season and I have only one losing week this season.

Here are my three Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

Buffalo Bills (+1.5) over Miami Dolphins

Based on each team's past two games, the Dolphins, who have won two straight, and Bills, who have lost two straight, are trending in the opposite direction. Will that continue? As ESPN college football analyst Lee Corso would say, "not say fast, my friends."

While the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (three), only three teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns than Buffalo this season. That said, Buffalo has been better against the run (even without defensive tackle Kyle Williams) over their past four games as they have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry during that span. In addition, only the Packers (17) have more interceptions than the Bills (15).

Although Bills running back Fred Jackson has not scored in three weeks and Miami's run defense is underrated, I expect a big week from Jackson, the NFL's leading rusher (917 yards), to help the Bills' offense get back on track. Jackson has four 100-yard rushing games in the past five weeks. The one exception was against an improved Jets run defense, who have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 5. Jackson still finished with 82 rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry) and 120 yards from scrimmage in that game.

Although the 'Fins have a one-game home winning streak, they have won only two of their past 14 games at home.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over Tennessee Titans

If you're expecting Titans running back Chris Johnson to continue to roll after last week's season-best performance at Carolina, brace yourself.

Here's an interesting stat: The Panthers have allowed an 85-yard rusher in every game this season except one and the Falcons have allowed only one 85-yard rusher (Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy, 95 yards, in Week 2) this season.

Unlike the Dolphins, the Falcons have been tough to beat at home over the past few years. Although they are only 2-2 at home this season, the first loss was to the unbeaten Packers and the other loss was to the Saints in overtime.

For his career, quarterback Matt Ryan is 22-4 at home compared to 16-13 on the road. Almost all of Ryan's numbers are better at home (road numbers in parenthesis): 94.0 passer rating (80.4), 63.7 completion percentage (58.4), 7.37 yards per pass attempt (6.21) and a 40:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio (40:27).

The Falcons are 8-2 against the spread as a home favorite in games with spreads of 3.5 to 10 points and are 18-5 ATS in games following a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, the Titans are 6-13 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) over Cleveland Browns

For my third game, I was very tempted to take the Bucs and the 14.5 points, but it's hard to bet against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who is making it look way too easy this season.

Instead, I am going with what just may be the most boring game of the day, or even the season, as the Browns and Jaguars have scored 20-plus points in only one game each this season.

The Browns will be without Peyton Hillis for another game and Montario Hardesty is a game-time decision, but I don't expect him to play. Chris Ogbonnaya had a solid game last week against the league's worst-ranked run defense (St. Louis), but Silent G won't be able to get the ground game going against a tougher run defense this week.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew has been extremely consistent this year. Through nine games, Jones-Drew has rushed for 80-plus yards in eight games, which is the most in the NFL. (Fred Jackson and LeSean McCoy have seven 80-yard games each and Adrian Peterson has six of them.) Meanwhile the Browns have allowed the third-most rushing yards (142.8 per game) this season.

The Jaguars are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games while the Browns are 1-8-2 ATS in their past 11 home games.

To see the picks of our other two "handicappers," visit the The Weekly Blitz page.

In addition to having tremendous success in picking games against the spread this year, I am currently ranked as the third-most accurate "fantasy football expert" out of all of those tracked by FantasyPros.com year-to-date through Week 10.

For all of our fantasy football rankings for Week 11, which will be updated later today, visit our fantasy section at TheTipDrill.com.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 01:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Picking three NFL games against the spread (ATS) every week for entertainment purposes, my official goal is to finish 2-1 (or better) ATS each week.

Fortunately, I've been more successful than that this season, so a 2-1 record last week dropped me to 19-6-2 (76.0 percent) ATS on the season through Week 9.

My one loss last week was my Cowboys (-11) pick over the Seahawks. The Cowboys won by only 10 points after the Seahawks converted a 4th-and-7 in the fourth quarter and ultimately scored on that drive with a Marshawn Lynch rushing touchdown.

Two of my six losses have been come-from-behind covers by the Seahawks as I had picked against them in Week 4 when they hosted the Falcons, who were 4.5-point favorites and blew a 20-point lead to win by only two points (and not cover).

Here are my three Week 10 picks against the spread:

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over Cincinnati Bengals

After the first quarter of the season, the Steelers had allowed more rushing yards than they have through Week 4 in any season since 1994. Since then, however, they have turned things around and rank sixth in the NFL in rushing defense (95.6 yards allowed per game).

Since allowing Houston's Arian Foster to rush for 155 yards in Week 4, they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher. In addition, no running back has more than 43 yards against them in their past three games and those backs include Baltimore's Ray Rice, Arizona's Beanie Wells and New England's BenJarvus Green-Ellis. In other words, I don't expect Cincinnati's Cedric Benson, who has been very mediocre this season, to have a strong game.

Meanwhile, the Steelers pass defense has been even stronger than their run defense as they have allowed the third-fewest passing yards this season. As great as A.J. Green and solid as Andy Dalton have played this season, it would not surprise me to see the Bengals' offense sputter this week.

[In fact, the Bengals face a team that ranks in the top four in pass defense in each of their next five games (Bengals' full 2011 schedule): Steelers twice, Browns, Ravens and Texans.]

While the Bengals defense is strong, they have a strong group of young offensive skill players and a few high draft picks from Oakland coming their way, their long-term future looks positive. Their short-term future, on the other hand, does not as the Bengals end their five-game winning streak this week.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) over New York Giants

Aside from an overtime loss to the Cowboys, the 49ers have not lost a game this year. After getting a tough come-from-behind road victory over the Patriots last week, the Giants head to the west coast for another tough matchup, which could have playoff-positioning implications.

In fact, the Giants have a brutal schedule from last week through the end of the season.

For a second week in a row, the Giants will be without running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has a cracked bone in his foot. Even with Bradshaw, however, it may not have mattered. The 49ers rank first in the NFL in rush defense (70.8 yards per game allowed) and are the only team in the league to not have allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

On the other hand, 49ers running back Frank Gore is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to play this week. Gore has a five-game streak of 100-yard rushing games and the Giants have been bad against the run this season. Not only are they in the bottom ten in the league in rush defense, the Giants have allowed a running back to finish with 98 rushing yards or more for five straight weeks before last week.

With five of their seven remaining games after this week against the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks, the Niners have a legitimate shot to win 13 games (or more) this season.

New England Patriots (+1.5) over New York Jets

When the Jets host the Patriots on Sunday Night Football, the game will feature one team on a three-game winning streak and another looking to avoid a three-game losing streak.

Against the Giants, who have struggled to stop the run as noted above, I expected the Pats to give BenJarvus Green-Ellis many more carries than they actually did. It is not that he was unproductive running the ball, but The Law Firm had only 12 carries for 52 yards. In fact, the trio of Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley had only 22 carries.

With the Darrelle Revis likely on Wes Welker, who leads the NFL in receptions (66) and receiving yards (960), it is unlikely that Welker has another big game. In their first matchup, Welker had five receptions for 124 yards but that included a 73-yard reception that Revis is unlikely to give up again.

Provided the Patriots are more commited to the run as they were in their first win over the Jets, they can avoid another loss. In that nine-point win in Foxboro, Green-Ellis had 27 carries for 136 yards and two touchdowns, all season highs, and Stevan Ridley carried the ball seven times as well.

If the Patriots lose Sunday night, it will be the first time since 2002 that they have lost three consecutive games. Perhaps this pick is as much of a hunch as anything, but I just can't see a Brady-led team losing three straight regular-season games.

Not only do I pick three games against the spread each week, but so do the other two "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz. To see their picks, click here.

For positional and/or flex rankings for both standard-scoring and/or point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats, check out our fantasy section at TheTipDrill.com.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 11:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Through the first half of the season, I've done fairly well picking NFL games against the spread (ATS) as I have had a winning record in seven of eight weeks.

Picking what I feel are the best three winners each week, I finished 2-1 ATS in Week 8 and now have a 17-5-2 (77.3 percent) ATS at the midway point of the season.

Here are my three picks for Week 9:

San Francisco 49ers (-4) over Washingon Redskins

Fortunately for the Redskins, tight end Fred Davis is no longer in a walking boot and is likely to play this week. That said, Davis has been the team's only offensive bright spot recently.

With Tim Hightower out for the season, the team's top two running backs have been ineffective since their bye. In those three games combined, Ryan Torain has 20 carries for 31 yards and Roy Helu has three carries for five yards total.

Despite getting only limited work, those carries came against three of the worst run defenses in the league: Philadelphia, Carolina and Buffalo. Running the ball won't get any easier against the 49ers, who have the league's stingiest run defense (73.4 yards allowed per game) and are the only team to have yet to allow a rushing touchdown.

Unlikely to establish the run this week, the Redskins will need to better protect quarterback John Beck, who was sacked nine times last week by the Bills. Entering the game, the Bills had only four sacks for the season. Even if the Redskins can protect Beck better, Washington's receiving corps is especially weak without Santana Moss.

For the 49ers, the secret to their success is not really a secret: play solid defense, run the ball well (Frank Gore has four straight 125-yard games) and limit Alex Smith's opportunity to make mistakes. Then try not to create a controversy with the post-game handshake.

Dallas Cowboys (-11) over Seattle Seahawks

As one would expect from the only team in the league to retire the number 12 in honor of their fans, the Seahawks play much better at home than they do on the road. In the past four and a half seasons, the Seahawks are 19-16 at home and 9-27 on the road.

While the Cowboys have a losing record (3-4) and are coming off a 27-point beatdown in primetime against division rivals, there is no doubt that the Cowboys are a far superior team than the Seahawks when it comes to talent. As an example, 33 players in the NFL are averaging at least 61 receiving yards per game. The Cowboys have four of them: Miles Austin (70.0), Jason Witten (68.1), Laurent Robinson (67.2) and Dez Bryant (61.2).

The easiest way to make Tarvaris Jackson look like a legitimate starting quarterback is to need Charlie Whitehurst to play a couple of games. That said, Jackson has not thrown a touchdown in three of his six games played this season. Yet their passing attack is even better (or less worse) than their ground attack.

This seems weird to say (or, technically, write), but the only team in the league to have a worse rushing offense than Seattle is Tennessee. Seattle has 77.7 rushing yards per game and Marshawn Lynch has rushed for more than 33 yards in only two of six games this season. Plus the Cowboys have the fourth-ranked run defense.

In their past 30 home games against teams with a losing record, the Cowboys are 21-7-2 against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

Prior to their bye last week, the Falcons won back-to-back games for the first time this season after getting off to a disappointing start. Maybe the bye slows their momentum some, but it also gives the Falcons an extra week to prepare for the Colts and to get healthy.

Atlanta has been without rookie receiver Julio Jones since he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5. Prior to the injury, Jones posted back-to-back 100-yard games.

The Falcons have relied heavily on Michael "The Burner" Turner in their past two wins. Turner has had 27 carries and more than 100 yards in each game. The Colts have the second-worst run defense in the league allowing 144 yards per game and are one of three teams to allow double-digit rushing touchdowns this season.

Not only are the Colts winless this year, but they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their past five games as road favorites.

Not only do I pick three games against the spread each week, but so do the other two "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz. To see their picks, click here.

For positional and flex rankings for both standard-scoring and point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats, check out our fantasy section at TheTipDrill.com.

To keep track of our updates, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 10:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Picking three NFL games against the spread (ATS) on a weekly basis, I felt pretty good going into the Monday Night Football matchup with a 2-0 record and the Ravens (-8) as my third pick last week.

Of course, that pick did not go as expected and it dropped me to 2-1 ATS for the week and 15-4-2 ATS for the season through seven weeks.

Some folks learn from their mistakes.

Perhaps, I'm not one of them as the Ravens are again one of my three picks for Week 8:

Baltimore Ravens (-12.5) over Arizona Cardinals

To say that the Ravens' offense sputtered in Week 8 would understate how badly it performed. The offensive playcalling and performance left Terrell Suggs (and everyone else) "baffled."

Not only did quarterback Joe Flacco throw for a season-low 137 yards, Ray Rice, the team's do-it-all back and most explosive offensive player, had only eight carries. The last time he had fewer carries was during his rookie season when he backed up Willis McGahee. Plus, the Ravens did not get their first first down until the third quarter.

There is no doubt that Rice will see a boost in his workload in Week 8. While the Cardinals are allowing only 3.8 yards per carry, they also have allowed eight rushing touchdowns -- only three teams have allowed more.

As far as Flacco's performance goes, he has alternated from solid to poor performances throughout the season. Here are his yardage totals from Weeks 1 to 7, respectively: 224, 197, 389, 163, (bye week), 305 and 137. Against a pass defense that ranks in the bottom five in the NFL, Flacco should bounce back this week.

From a defensive standpoint, the Ravens are as good as it gets as they rank first in defensive scoring (13.8 points allowed per game) and have created 19 turnovers (six interceptions and a league-high 13 forced fumbles).

After last week's disappointing loss in prime time, the Ravens will take out their frustrations all game long on the Cardinals and this game will turn into a laugher. When the Ravens are big home favorites (10.5 points or more), they typically take care of business: 11-4 against the spread in past 15 games.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) over the Denver Broncos

Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow led the Broncos to an amazing come-from-behind victory as he worked his magic last week on "Gator Day" in Miami.

Regardless of what tricks Tebow may have up his sleeves at home this week, a repeat performance is unlikely. While I admire his determination and will and he makes plays as a runner, there is little debate when it comes to Tebow's accuracy. Several of his throws last week weren't even close to their intended receiver.

The Lions rank ninth in the NFL in pass defense (204.6 yards allowed per game), have sacked the quarterback 17 times and are one of five teams to intercept double-digit passes.

It appears as though quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has a sprained ankle, will play on Sunday. While it would be hard to not have good chemistry with Calvin Johnson, Stafford and Megatron have connected on a league-high ten touchdowns through their first seven games. Johnson has 100-plus yards in three straight games and in four of his past five games.

The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five road games and the Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Dallas Cowboys

Based on expectations entering the season, both the Cowboys and Eagles enter their Sunday Night Football matchup as two teams not living up their potential.

It would be accurate to say that the Eagles have been a bigger disappointment. Not only do they have a worse record (2-4), but the "Dream Team" entered the season as the Super Bowl pick for many. Coming into the season, expectations for the Cowboys were somewhat tempered by their less-than-inspired performance in 2010 that caused their head coach to get fired.

Coming off the bye, betting against Eagles coach Andy Reid has been a losing proposition. In the game immediately after the bye in his 12 seasons as head coach of the Eagles, Reid is 12-0.

Led by the league's top-running quarterback, the Eagles rank first in the NFL in rushing offense (170.0 YPG). Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank first in the NFL in rushing defense (69.7 rushing yards allowed per game).

That said, I expect the Eagles to use LeSean McCoy more in the passing game than they have this year. McCoy, who led running backs in receptions (78) last year, has only 21 receptions for 123 yards, but McCoy is averaging a career-high 94.8 rushing yards per game (fifth in the NFL) through six weeks.

Philadelphia, who has yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season, picked off Rex Grossman four times in their last game. For the Cowboys, Tony Romo is prone to making mistakes in key moments as evidenced by the team's historic blown leads to the Jets and Lions.

In a must-win situation (falling to 2-5 would be a nearly insurmountable hurdle), the Eagles continue their game-after-bye winning streak under Reid.

For the rest of our Week 8 picks, check out The Weekly Blitz.

If you're looking for fantasy football rankings, here are our Week 8 rankings, which will continue to be updated up until the first kickoff on Sunday.

To keep track of our fantasy updates throughout the week, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 02:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Every week, I make three NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for entertainment purposes and last week was another "entertaining" week.

After my only losing week (1-2 in Week 5) of the season, I got back on track with a 2-0 performance (and a push) in Week 6. Through the first six weeks of the 2011 NFL season, I am now 13-3-2 (81.3 percent) ATS.

Here are my three picks for Week 7:

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over Arizona Cardinals

With an upgrade at quarterback, things were going to be like "night and day" for the Cardinals' offense. Instead, it has felt like more of the same.

Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb, who was acquired in the offseason via trade, has thrown only one touchdown and five interceptions in his last three games. And it won't get any easier this week.

Pittsburgh's rush defense hasn't been up to its own standards, but their pass defense currently ranks first in the NFL as they have allowed 157.7 passing yards per game. One of the things that has surprised me about the Steelers defense is they have created a league-low three turnovers (one interception and two forced fumbles) this season. That could change this week, however, as Kolb has thrown only one touchdown and five interceptions in his last three games.

The Steelers may have found some offensive balance with Rashard Mendenhall having his 146-yard performance last week. Currently the team ranks in the top 12 in both rushing and passing offense.

Baltimore Ravens (-8) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Ravens, who have won three straight, have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 100-38 during that span.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars will look to end their losing streak at five games. They haven't lost six straight games since 1995, their first season in the league.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been one of the few bright spots for the Jaguars as he ranks third in the NFL in rushing (572 yards). MJD has been consistent -- no fewer than 84 rushing yards in any of his first six games. However, only two teams in the league allow fewer rushing yards per game than the Ravens (76.6 YPG allowed).

In addition, the Ravens have scored four defensive touchdowns in five games while creating 16 turnovers (six interceptions and a league-best 10 forced fumbles).

While the Jaguars have run the ball well, they rank last in the NFL in passing offense and total offense. Perhaps it's a good thing that the local blackout has not yet been lifted for Monday Night Football.

(Note: Deadline to avoid blackout is Saturday at 8:30 p.m.)

Chicago Bears (-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the "home team," but the game is in London. With the Bears having a larger national (and global) fan base than the Bucs, it wouldn't surprise me if the crowd is pro-Chicago.

While he played his best game of the season last week, Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman has been inconsistent all season. Through six games, Freeman has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five). In fact, he has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he threw in all of 2010.

Although Bears quarterback Jay Cutler can be inconsistent as well, I expect the Bears to give the ball to running back Matt Forte early and often. As great of a rookie season as Forte had, he's having his best season as pro and it's not even close. Forte has 527 rushing yards and 381 receiving yards through six games, which means he is on pace for more than 2,400 yards from scrimmage.

Cutler has completed more than 71 percent of passes (49-of-69), has averaged 258 yards and thrown three touchdowns and no interceptions in his past two games.

For the rest of our picks for Week 7, check out our weekly picks page.

If you're looking for Week 7 fantasy football rankings, our rankings are currently available although we will continue to update them until 1 p.m. kickoffs on Sunday morning.

In addition, here is our free Week 7 fantasy football contest, if interested.

To keep track of our fantasy updates throughout the week, you can (1) follow us on Twitter @EDSFootball or (2) "like" us on Facebook or both.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 11:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Every week, I pick three NFL games against the spread (ATS) for entertainment purposes. As I sometimes joke (although it's true), winning is more "entertaining" than losing.

Last week was my least "entertaining" of the year.

After last week's 1-2 ATS performance, my overall record this season fell to 11-3-1 (78.6 percent) ATS.

Two of my three losses this year were by the Falcons in back-to-back weeks. As a six-point underdog and with a 14-0 lead against the Packers at home, the Falcons allowed the Packers to score 25 unanswered points. In the previous week, the Falcons nearly blew a 20-point second-half lead in Seattle but escaped with a two-point win and failed to cover.

The Falcons, who will be without rookie receiver Julio Jones, aren't one of our three picks in Week 6. Their opponent last week is, however.

Here are my three picks for Week 6:

Green Bay Packers (-14) over St. Louis Rams

If you're a Rams fan and a glass-half-full guy, here's a stat for you: St. Louis is tied for the NFL lead in fewest interceptions thrown (one) this season. OK, you should probably stop reading now.

For the rest of us, the Rams are bad. Really bad. Not only have they scored the fewest points (11.5 per game), they have allowed the second most (28.3 points per game) in the NFL. On a per-game basis, no quarterback has been sacked more than Sam Bradford. I could go on, but you get the point.

On the other hand, the Packers' offense is firing on all cylinders. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers became only the fifth quarterback since 1970 to start the season with five consecutive games with a passer rating of 100 or more and no team has scored more than Green Bay (34.6 per game).

It's going to be a long day for Bradford and the Rams.

Oakland Raiders (-7) over Cleveland Browns

Playing with a heavy heart the day after the death of long-time owner Al Davis, the Raiders pulled off an "upset" on the road against the Texans last week. The Raiders will now play their first home game since his passing.

Both teams should be able to run the ball well. Oakland has the league's leading rusher in Darren McFadden, who is averaging 103.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry this season.

The Raiders passing game gets a boost from the absence of cornerback Joe Haden, who has been ruled out and is one of the league's top up-and-coming cornerbacks. That bodes well for Denarius Moore, who was held reception-less in last week's game facing the Texans top cornerback Jonathan Joseph.

The Browns are 1-6-1 in their past eight games against the spread while the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their past six games.

New York Jets (-7) over Miami Dolphins

For both of these teams, there is a ton of pressure as the 'Fins have lost all four of their games this year and the Jets are on a three-game losing streak. Meanwhile, there are rifts from within the Jets' locker room that have gone public and no coach's hot seat is hotter than Tony Sparano's.

Dolphins receiver Brandon Marshall has joked, I think, that his plan is to play so emotionally that he gets tossed from the game in the middle of the second quarter. For that quarter and a half that he's on the field, he says he will be a "monster." Facing the league's top shutdown corner in Darrelle Revis, no wonder Marshall wants to leave Revis Island early.

The Jets will need to do a better job stopping the run, however, as the Dolphins will have rookie Daniel Thomas back in the lineup. Thomas, who has missed two games due to his hamstring, has 202 rushing yards in the two games he has played.

With both teams' backs against the proverbial wall, the Jets find themselves in virtually a must-win situation as a loss drops them to 2-4 and they would otherwise need an 8-2 or 9-1 run to make the postseason.

For more of our picks, check out The Weekly Blitz.

While I have had success in picking game against the spread this season, I have perhaps have had greater success with my fantasy football rankings.

Based on accuracy tracking of "fantasy football experts" at FantasyPros, I'm currently the sixth overall most-accurate ranker. Although I will continue to update my rankings through Sunday morning, you can find my Week 6 rankings here.

If interested, our free fantasy football contest for Week 6 is open to all and the deadline to enter is Sunday, October 16th at 12:59 p.m. ET.

Good luck in Week 6!

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 05:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Like the Buffalo Bills, I got my first loss of the season last week.

Every week at The Weekly Blitz, we pick three NFL games against the spread (ATS) and one of my three picks last week was the Atlanta Falcons, who beat the Seahawks but did not cover the spread.

Through the first four weeks of the year, my record is now 10-1 ATS (90.9 percent) with a push.

While my picks are for entertainment purposes only, of course, winning is certainly more "entertaining" than losing.

Here are my three picks for Week 5:

Oakland Raiders +5 (over Houston Texans)

The Texans will be without wide receiver Andre Johnson for the next three weeks or so and will lean on their ground attack led by a healthy-again Arian Foster. In fact, this game features two of the league's top rushers in Oakland's Darren McFadden and Foster.

In four games this season, McFadden has exactly 600 yards from scrimmage and he leads the NFL in rushing (468 yards). The last time these two teams played, McFadden was held to only 47 rushing yards, but he also had six receptions for 82 yards.

Under new head coach Hue Jackson, the Raiders are a confident bunch. Jackson has predicted an AFC West title and has this team believing in themselves. I think the Raiders are better than their 2-2 record indicates and both of their losses are to 3-1 teams. In addition, the Raiders will be playing with a heavy heart with the passing of their legendary owner, Al Davis, on Saturday morning.

While I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders pull off the upset, I expect them to keep this game close.

Atlanta Falcons +6 (over Green Bay Packers)

The general rule of thumb is that the portion of the point spread attributed to home-field advantage is three points. Based on that assumption, the spread in this game implies that the Falcons would be close to a double-digit underdog on a neutral field.

To be clear, the Falcons have their share of problems. The Falcons are 2-2 and nearly blew a 20-point second-half to the Seahawks, one of the league's worst teams. Atlanta hasn't protected quarterback Matt Ryan as well as they should have and their defense ranks 27th in scoring (26.3 points per game allowed) this season. Only the Bills have fewer sacks this season than the Falcons.

Facing the high-powered Packers offense and Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a six-touchdown performance (four passing and two rushing), it could be a long day for Atlanta's defense. That said, the Packers defense has struggled as well.

Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most yards (406.8 per game) and only New England has allowed more passing yards. While the Falcons need to protect their quarterback better, Matt Ryan has a 21-2 record at home during the regular season and better ratios across the board.

While I think the Packers will win this game outright, I also think it will be a shootout with both teams putting up a lot of points. I wouldn't be surprised to see the final score be something like 35-31 and the Falcons covering the spread.

Indianapolis Colts -2 (over Kansas City Chiefs)

Through four weeks, these two teams have a combined 1-7 record. In other words, both teams have been huge disappointments. To be fair, both sides have suffered significant injuries to their best players.

While Kansas City got their first win of the season against the winless Vikings last week, the Colts have played their opponents reasonably tough in their past two matchups. It's likely that Curtis Painter will be the team's starting quarterback again this week. Although he didn't play great in his first career start last week, Painter did throw for 281 yards, two touchdowns and, most importantly, no interceptions.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom four in the league in offense and both teams have been bad against the run (allowing 130-plus rushing yards per game). With Jamaal Charles out for the season, the Chiefs will rely heavily on receiver Dwayne Bowe for their offensive output. On the other hand, the Colts have a better balance than the Chiefs when it comes to running the ball and skill players on offense.

After this weekend, there will be (at least) one less winless team tied for the lead in the "Suck for [Andrew] Luck" sweepstakes.

For more picks, check out all three handicappers' picks at The Weekly Blitz.

Speaking of the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes, we have updated our 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database, which is full of links to various mock drafts on the web.

For those of you interested in fantasy football, you can find our Week 5 fantasy rankings at TheTipDrill.com, our fantasy section, and our free Week 5 fantasy football contest in our forums.

Good luck to all in Week 5!

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 12:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

With everything, good timing and a little bit of luck can go a long way. Last week, I had a little of both.

Every week, I (and the other members of The Weekly Blitz team) pick three NFL games against the spread.

Last Saturday, the Dolphins were two-point underdogs against the Browns since running back Peyton Hillis was expected to play despite dealing with strep throat. Last Saturday, the Dolphins were one of my three picks against the spread. Despite losing the game by one point, the Dolphins covered the spread.

When Hillis was ruled out Sunday morning, however, the roles were reversed and the Dolphins became the favorites by two points. So, in other words, if you made the selection on Sunday and gave two points, you would have lost.

In either case, I am 8-0 with one push in my nine picks against the spread this season.

Here are my three picks for Week 4:

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks

In their first win of the season last week, the Seahawks offense got a boost from receiver Sidney Rice, who had eight receptions for 109 yards in his season debut. That said, neither the win nor Rice's performance change what this team is, one of the league's worst (see our power rankings). It also does not change the fact that Tarvaris Jackson, who was booed at home, is one of the league's worst starting quarterbacks.

Seattle, one of three NFL teams to average 10 points or less per game, ranks second-to-last in total offense (214.7 yards per game).

For both of these teams, one of the keys will be keeping their quarterback upright. Jackson is tied with Chicago's Jay Cutler for most times being sacked (14) and Atlanta's Matt Ryan (13) is right behind them. That said, neither team has yet to get their pass rush going this season.

Although they have had a disappointing start, there is no doubt that the Falcons, who lost only three games in 2010, are a much more talented team the Seahawks. With their backs against the proverbial wall, I expect them to come out swinging and take care of business in the Emerald City and win this game big. When these two teams met last December, the Falcons won the game by a score of 34-18.

That sounds about right.

New England Patriots (-5.5) over Oakland Raiders

Raiders running back Darren McFadden has become one of the NFL's elite running backs. Over his past 16 games played, McFadden has 2,141 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns.

While the Patriots pass (and overall) defense has not done much to inspire confidence, they have been much better at stopping the run. Certainly, they will be keying on slowing down Run DMC as much as possible this week.

Despite last week's four interceptions, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been airing it out in record-setting fashion. No quarterback has thrown for more yards than Brady (1,327) during a three-game span in NFL history.

Since 2003, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has lost back-to-back regular-season games only twice: Weeks 8 and 9 in 2006 and Weeks 11 and 12 in 2009. It was the sixth time in Brady's career that he threw four interceptions, his total for all of 2010, in a regular-season game. In the immediate game after the previous five times he has thrown that many picks, however, Brady has thrown a total of nine touchdowns and only one interception.

I expect the Patriots to bounce back big as they typically do after a defeat.

New Orleans Saints (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Through three games, only the Chiefs have scored fewer points than the Jaguars, who are averaging less than 10 points per game. Rookie Blaine Gabbert replaced Luke McCown, who replaced David Garrard, as the starting quarterback last week. While Gabbert will have a solid career, look for the Gregg Williams-coached defense to throw the kitchen sink at Gabbert.

Meanwhile, the Saints, who are averaging nearly 35 points per game, have one of the league's most high-powered offenses and they get one of their best playmakers, Marques Colston, back from a broken collarbone this week. While I don't expect Colston to be a huge factor in his first game back from the injury, he has said he could play the full game, if necessary. Drew Brees, who has thrown for three touchdowns in three straight games, simply finds the open man, whether that's Colston, Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, etc.

If there is one thing that scares me about this pick (and the others), it's that I'm taking three road favorites.

For more picks, check out the picks by our other two "handicappers."

If you are looking for fantasy football rankings, here are my Week 4 rankings. In addition, here is our free fantasy football contest for Week 4.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 11:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)