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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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2012 NFL WEEK 6 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Picks and spreads are as of Friday, October 12th at 10:33 p.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Discuss
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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John
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Steve
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Thu, Oct 11 at 8:35 PM
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Steelers
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6.5
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TITANS
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Game Thread
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Sun, Oct 14 at 1:05 PM
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Bengals
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2.0
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BROWNS
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Game Thread
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CLE +2
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Sun, Oct 14 at 1:05 PM
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JETS
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3.5
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Colts
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Game Thread
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IND +3.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 1:05 PM
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BUCCANEERS
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4.5
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Chiefs
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Game Thread
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TB -4.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 1:05 PM
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FALCONS
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9.5
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Raiders
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Game Thread
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ATL -9.5
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ATL -9.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 1:05 PM
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RAVENS
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3.5
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Cowboys
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Game Thread
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BAL -3.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 1:05 PM
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EAGLES
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3.5
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Lions
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Game Thread
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PHI -3.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 1:05 PM
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DOLPHINS
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4.0
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Rams
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MIA -4
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Sun, Oct 14 at 4:10 PM
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Patriots
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3.5
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SEAHAWKS
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NE -3.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 4:10 PM
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CARDINALS
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4.5
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Bills
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BUF +4.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 4:30 PM
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REDSKINS
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NL
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Vikings
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Sun, Oct 14 at 4:30 PM
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49ERS
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6.5
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Giants
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NYG +6.5
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NYG +6.5
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NYG +6.5
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Sun, Oct 14 at 8:30 PM
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TEXANS
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3.5
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Packers
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GB +3.5
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HOU -3.5
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Mon, Oct 15 at 8:30 PM
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CHARGERS
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1.0
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Broncos
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Bye Weeks (see all byes): Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 5-9-1 (35.7%)
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Raiders at Falcons (-9.5)
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Cowboys at Ravens (-3.5)
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Rams at Dolphins (-4)
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Falcons -9.5
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Ravens -3.5
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Dolphins -4
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All else being equal, I prefer not to pick
against teams coming off their bye as the
Raiders are. But it's hard to imagine the
Raiders defense slowing down the Falcons
high-powered offense enough to keep this
game close. Blessed with a trio of top-notch
targets in Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony
Gonzalez, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is
having an MVP-like season. Through five
games, all wins, he is averaging 301.4
passing yards per game, has completed 68.3
percent of his pass attempts and has a 13:3
touchdown-to-interception ratio. Only the
Titans and Bills have allowed more points per
game than Oakland, who is bad against the
run (25th) and even worse against the pass
(27th).
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Once again, I find myself picking against a
team coming off a bye. In addition, I
usually avoid picking against (or for) my
favorite team. Disclosure: I'm a die-hard
Dallas Cowboys fan. The general rule of
thumb is that home-field advantage is
worth three points. If that's the case, this
line is saying that the Ravens are only
slightly better than the Cowboys. Do you
really think that is the case? Perhaps the
talent level isn't all that different, but
Dallas is a team that shoots itself in the
foot all too often. I don't expect another
five-interception performance from Tony
Romo, but he tends to make mistakes at
the most inopportune times. The Ravens
have been money at home: 18-1 in the
regular season since 2010. They will
extend their home-winning streak here.
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Like the rest of the NFC West, the Rams
have been tough to beat at home so far
this season. While the Rams are 3-0, the
division has a collective 10-0 home record.
As good as they have been at home, the
Rams are 0-2 on the road so far this
season. In their two road losses, the Rams
scored only 29 points and seven of those
resulted from a Cortland Finnegan return
touchdown. While the Rams play solid
defense, their offense, especially without
Danny Amendola, leaves a lot to be
desired. Facing the league's top-ranked
rush defense, Steven Jackson, who is
averaging only 3.5 yards per carry, could
struggle running the ball. Meanwhile, Sam
Bradford should be under constant pressure
as only the Cardinals and Packers have
allowed more sacks this season. The
Dolphins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15
games and 9-0 ATS against teams with a
winning record.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 8-7 (53.3%)
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Raiders at Falcons (-9.5)
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Colts at Jets (-3.5)
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Giants at 49ers (-6.5)
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Falcons -9.5
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Colts +3.5
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Giants +6.5
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I normally don't like the huge number covers,
but in this case the numbers are so much in
Atlanta's favor I will make the exception. The
Raiders have struggled on offense this year,
as they have only scored more than 14 points
once in four games, while the Falcons have
not scored less than 24. The Falcons are also
an impressive 4-1 against the spread, while
the Raiders are the opposite at 1-3. The most
telling statistic is Matt Ryan going up against
the 27th-ranked passing defense that gives
up 283 yards per game and 9 TDs in four
games. All this points to an Atlanta blowout
without even having to rely on the old West
Coast team playing at 1 p.m. lame argument.
Lay the 9.5 for the Falcons in the dome.
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The Colts are coming off one of this
season's biggest upsets by beating the
Packers at home while playing for their
coach Chuck Pagano. The Jets are a mess,
and they have finally put Darelle Revis on
IR for the year, and just can't move the ball
at all on offense. The Jets have surprisingly
been horrible against the run this year, as
they have allowed 172.8 yards per game on
the ground, and I don't care if Vick Ballard
is starting, he will make it rain. The Jets
have relied on Revis to make their defense
run, so they can utilize Rex Ryan's great
blitz schemes, but Antonio Cromartie will
have a very tough day against the
rejuvenated Reggie Wayne. I like Andrew
Luck over Mark Sanchez, Reggie Wayne
and whatever guy the Jets got off the
street, and Vick Ballard over Shonne
Greene. I look for the struggles of Mark
Sanchez to continue, and love the fact that
I am even getting points here, as the
shouts for Tebow increase.
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Perhaps the top game of the weekend, we
have the Giants traveling back to San
Francisco for an NFC Championship game
rematch. The 49ers have steamrolled their
last two opponents in the Bills and Jets,
while the Giants toyed with the Browns and
lost to the Eagles. The Giants have
historically had the best of the 49ers
against the spread, as they are 6-1 in their
last seven against the number. The Giants
have historically been a much better road
team, and they will also get a boost with
Hakeem Nicks likely returning from injury.
The Giants have one of the best passing
attacks in the league, and they have been
within seven points in their past two losses.
I don't think that the Giants will win this
game outright, but if you are giving the
defending Super Bowl champions 6.5
points, it would be crazy not to take them.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 7-8 (46.7%)
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Patriots (-3.5) at Seahawks
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Giants at 49ers (-6.5)
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Bengals (-2) at Browns
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Patriots -3.5
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Giants +6.5
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Browns +2
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Seattle is money at home beating two NFC
powerhouses at home already this year in
Dallas and Green Bay, but I don't put too
much stock into either of those wins. It took
a B.S. call in the Green Bay game to actually
win the game, and they only scored seven
points up until that play. Green Bay's defense
isn't exactly elite either as they have given up
27 points or more in three of their five games
this year. One good thing that Bill Belichick
and the Patriots are good at is confusing
rookie QBs. Russell Wilson has looked shaky
in recent weeks, so I expect him to struggle
again at home. On the flip side, the Patriots
offense is clicking on all cylinders and they
may get TE Aaron Hernandez back this week,
which would open up the middle of the field
even more for Stevan Ridley and the running
game. I know the public will be all over the
Pats, but I'd take this game all the way up to
six points. The Patriots win big, 31-17.
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The 49ers have looked unbeatable the past
two weeks, but let's not crown them NFC
champs right yet. I do stand by my
preseason Pats-49ers Super Bowl
prediction, but I'm not crowning them
champs now. Alex Smith looks great, the
49ers D has only allowed three points total
in the past two weeks, but look at the
competition. The Bills and Jets are two
teams of a group of five that are playing
terrible football right now. (Titans, Browns
and Jags are the others.) There is the
revenge factor in this one as well since the
Giants ended the 49ers season last year,
but I just think this spread is a little crazy.
I would cap this game at four or 4.5. I
know the Giants defense isn't as good as
years past, and that they have a ton of
problems in the secondary, but Alex Smith
isn't going to sling the ball over the field for
400 yards and three TDs. The 49ers aren't
built that way. Eli Manning is as money as
any QB in recent history. I think people are
writing off the Giants, and I actually think
the Giants win this game on the road.
Giants win, 24-21.
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I ranked Cleveland 32nd in our recent
power rankings, and I do think they are the
worst team in football. This week they face
the in-state rival Bengals. The underdog is
9-1-1 ATS in the past 11, and I think
Cleveland gets their first win at home this
week. Cincinnati is just one of those teams
that I think aren't as good as people think
they are. I think there is that look-ahead
factor in this one as well since they play the
Steelers at home next week. Remember
that game five years or so ago where the
Browns won 51-45? I think it's gonna be
one of those type of wild games. Browns
win, 44-40.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 6-7-2 (46.2%)
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Bills at Cardinals (-4.5)
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Giants at 49ers (-6.5)
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Packers at Texans (-3.5)
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Bills +4.5
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Giants +6.5
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Packers +3.5
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The Bills have been terribly inconsistent, while
the Cardinals have started the season an
impressive 4-1. However, the Bills have the
talent to perform better than they have been,
while the Cardinals seem like they may have
hit the ceiling on their season. The Rams
controlled the whole game last Thursday
night, holding Arizona to just three points.
The Cardinals defense is still one of the best
in the league, but it's tough to win with just
one side of the ball. How they've skated by
with the offensive line and quarterback
carousel that they have had is a complete
mystery, but now that they finally lost, I think
we may see the more marginal Cardinal team
that most of us expected coming into the
year. On the other hand, Buffalo has been a
complete disappointment, and has been the
most under-achieving group in the league.
Arizona is a winnable game on their schedule,
and as poorly as they've played, they are still
just a game out of the division lead. I expect
a weak Cardinal offense to keep this game
close either way, so I'll take Buffalo and the
five points.
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Before the spreads come out, I usually try
to guess what I think the lines for each
game should be. It's usually not too hard
to get pretty close. When I looked at this
game, I had the Niners by 3.5. The spread
came out at 5 and moved up to 6.5.
Maybe the smart money is betting big on
San Francisco, but I think 6.5 is just too
much. The 49ers are my pick to win the
Super Bowl, and although I have them
ranked No. 2 in our power rankings, truth
be told, I'd take SF over anybody on a
neutral field. However, winning and
covering are two different things. This
game should be a battle, and while the
Niners will likely take this one, I think Eli will
keep the Giants in the game in a 24-20
type game.
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I've come awfully close to giving up on the
Packers and coming to grips with the fact
that it's possible that the team that won the
Super Bowl two years ago, and went 15-1 in
the regular season last year, is just not a
great team anymore. You can blame the
defense for blowing a 21-3 lead against the
Colts, or you can scratch your head and
wonder how the Pack were only able to put
up six points against the Indy defense in
the second half. It turns out, though, that
it's just not that easy for me to give up on
Aaron Rodgers. In the primetime Thursday
night game Week 2 against division-rival
Chicago, Rodgers led Green Bay to an easy
victory against what looks like one of the
best teams in the league. This is another
big primetime game against one of two
remaining unbeaten teams. The Texans
looked surprisingly shaky against the Jets
last week, and this game is critical for the
Packers to stay in contention for the
division. The Bears, as well as the
surprising Vikings, have started off with 4-1
records, and since they got robbed of a win
Monday night against the Seahawks, Green
Bay is already two games behind both. I
think we see the best of Mr. Rodgers on
Sunday night, and I like the Packers to end
Houston's perfect season.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 8-7 (53.3%)
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Lions at Eagles (-3.5)
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Chiefs at Buccaneers (-4.5)
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Packers at Texans (-3.5)
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Eagles -3.5
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Buccaneers -4.5
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Texans -3.5
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Both teams have been plagued by mental
mistakes and sloppy play all season. The
Lions give up huge plays on special teams
and the Eagles are second-worst in the NFL
with -7 net turnovers on 14 giveaways through
five games (somehow KC is an astounding
-15 net turnovers on 19 giveaways). I chock
up the Detroit’s errors to lack of discipline and
coaching and don’t expect much different until
new leadership is installed there, but Philly
has proven coaching and leadership and
turnovers can sometimes just be unlucky. I
expect the Eagles to eventually right the ship,
and correct some of the errors that have led
to close contests and two losses. The Eagles
three wins so far have been by a combined
four points, but I have confidence they’ll win
and cover this week giving the four to Detroit.
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And the Brady Quinn experience continues!
For all the inappropriate complaints and
cheering of Matt Cassel, he was the best
quarterback on the roster. I am a believer
that team and system means a lot, but let’
s not forget Cassel did led the Patriots to
an 11-win season, and I think there are a
lot of starting QBs in the NFL who couldn’t
have done that. I’d put Cassel as better
than half the starters in the NFL and going
to Quinn is a downgrade and one that put
more focus Jamaal Charles. Although
Tampa’s pass defense has been atrocious
so far this season (worst in the NFL),
however, their run defense has been
exceptional (fourth fewest yards per game
allowed). I’d expect the Bucs to key in on
Charles and force Brady Quinn to beat
them, which seems like a recipe for Tampa
to get back in the “W” column.
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Bill Parcells was quoted as saying “You are
what your record says you are” and he is a
man that has forgotten more football than
I will ever know. But I lead with that in
game that pits a 5-0 team against 2-3
team and the undefeated team is only
giving 3.5 at home. Houston has looked
dominant so far this season on both sides
of the football. They are top five in scoring
offense and top five in defense. Green Bay
has looked pedestrian and are middle of
the road in both total defense and total
offense. This game and spread looks to be
tainted through the lens of Green Bay’s 15-
1 record last season, compounded by the
Texans losing one of its best defenders,
Brian Cushing, to a torn ACL. If anything
Houston did last year, it is that they proved
they have great depth. Although I could
see the Texans missing Cushing against a
great running team, the Packers are not
that. Although my Houston pick missed
last week with Jets getting a fourth quarter
field goal for the cover, I’m sticking with the
Texans this week against an over-powered
Packers team.
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