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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, five of our "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final 2011 results: Combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
Final 2012 results: Combined record of 130-121-4 (51.8 percent) ATS.
2013 Cumulative Results: 16-25-4 (39.0 percent) ATS. (Ouch)
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2013 NFL WEEK 2 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Lines used for each handicapper are the lines at the time of their pick.
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Links to their picks are under the name (as well as below in the grid).
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Spreads are as of Sunday, September 15th at 12:56 a.m. ET
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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Steve
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John
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Kevin's picks
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Dan's picks
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Sean's picks
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Steve's picks
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John's picks
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Thu., Sept. 12 at 8:30 PM
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Patriots 13, Jets 10
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NE -11.5
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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EAGLES
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7.5
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Chargers
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SD +7
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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RAVENS
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7.0
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Browns
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BAL -7
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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TEXANS
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9.0
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Titans
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TEN +9
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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COLTS
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3.0
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Dolphins
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MIA +3
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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Panthers
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3.0
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BILLS
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BUF +3
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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FALCONS
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5.5
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Rams
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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PACKERS
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7.5
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Redskins
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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CHIEFS
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3.0
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Cowboys
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KC -3
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DAL +3
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 1:05 PM
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BEARS
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6.5
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Vikings
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 4:05 PM
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Saints
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4.0
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BUCS
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NO -4
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TB +4
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TB +4
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 4:05 PM
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Lions
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2.0
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CARDINALS
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 4:25 PM
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RAIDERS
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6.0
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Jaguars
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JAX +6
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JAX +6
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 4:25 PM
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Broncos
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4.0
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GIANTS
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Sun., Sept. 15 at 8:30 PM
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SEAHAWKS
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2.5
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49ers
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SF +2.5
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Mon., Sept. 16 at 8:30 PM
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BENGALS
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6.5
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Steelers
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CIN -6.5
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 22-28-1 (44.0%)
2013 Record: 4-4-1 (50.0%)
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Browns at Ravens (-7)
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Jaguars at Raiders (-6)
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Panthers (-3) at Bills
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Ravens -7
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Jaguars +6
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Bills +3
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Due to a scheduling conflict with the Orioles, the Ravens had to begin their title defense on the road. To make matters worse, they suffered a beatdown at the hands of the Broncos and Peyton Manning, who tied the NFL single-game record with seven touchdown passes.
Fast forward a week (or technically 10 days) and the Ravens will finally play in front of their fans at M&T Bank Stadium, where they enjoy one of the better home-field advantages. And we can only imagine that the Ravens are ready to take out their frustrations on the team up next: Cleveland.
In addition, it's safe to say that Brandon Weeden is no Peyton. Plus Josh Gordon, the team's most talented receiver, will miss one more game as he serves his two-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. The Browns have a better run game than the Broncos although they inexplicably gave Trent Richardson only 13 carries last week.
On the flip side, it was surprising that Ray Rice had only 12 carries, but he finished with eight receptions in Week 1. With Joe Haden likely shadowing Torrey Smith all over the field, I expect to see more of a running game this week from the Ravens.
Over the past five seasons, the Ravens are 33-7 at home and 10-0 head-to-head against the Browns. With a mini-bye, the Ravens improve upon those numbers.
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Led by Blaine Gabbert, the Jaguars' offense was atrocious in Week 1 as the squad had a total of 178 yards of offensive output. That will change this week — both the starting quarterback, as Chad Henne is in for Gabbert, and they will move the ball better against this AFC West opponent. Both Maurice Jones-Drew and Cecil Shorts will have nice games after slow starts last week.
Meanwhile, Terrelle Pryor made it exciting for the Raiders last week as he nearly led them to an upset over the Colts, who were double-digit favorites. Oakland's offensive line is one of the worst in the league, if not the worst without Jared Veldheer, and they have now lost rookie Menelik Watson (knee) for a month.
With both teams in the mix to finish with the top pick in the draft, the loser gets a better chance of securing a shot at Teddy Bridgewater (or Jadeveon Clowney).
These two teams are bad and there is going to be little interest in this game on a national basis, but I think this game is at least closer than the six-point spread suggests.
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There are number of home underdogs this weekend as the Bills, Bucs, Cardinals and Giants are all getting points at home. In all four of these cases, I would go with the home 'dog so why the Bills over the others for my final pick?
In those matchups, the Bucs and Giants face two teams I expected to win their divisions and the Cardinals may (or may not) be without Larry Fitzgerald as he battles a hamstring injury.
The Panthers have some strengths, but they have their share of weaknesses as well. The team's biggest strength is the front-seven of its defense. That may allow them to get pressure on rookie E.J. Manuel and may slow down the 1-2 punch of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Their secondary is arguably the league's worst, though.
After a competitive game against the Patriots (Stephen Gostkowski kicked game-winning FG with five seconds to go), I expect that we see more of Spiller (barring no fumbles) and the Bills get their first win of the Manuel era.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 28-23 (54.9%)
2013 Record: 2-7 (22.2%)
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Saints (-4) at Buccaneers
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Jaguars at Raiders (-6)
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Dolphins at Colts (-3)
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Saints -4
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Jaguars +6
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Dolphins +3
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The Saints couldn't have gotten off to a better start, as they beat divisional-rival Atlanta, and now they will want to improve to 2-0 against the Bucs. Tampa Bay had a great chance to win last week, but of course, a stupid penalty gave the Jets all the opportunity that was needed to win.
New Orleans has history on their side in recent games, as they have gone 4-1 against the spread in their last five with Tampa. I love the matchup of Drew Brees going against last year's worst overall pass defense, and the Buccaneers are a team that allowed rookie Geno Smith to throw for 214 yards on them.
The Saints defense is vastly improved, and even though the Bucs have added to their secondary, Revis can't be everywhere. I would like the home dogs if they were getting more points, but I will gladly take the Saints on the road.
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I think I am going out on a limb here by even looking at this game, and also maybe I should be examined as I am going with a team that only scored two points on a 2-14 team last week.
The Raiders sure made it interesting against Indy, and perhaps Terrelle Pryor may be an answer at quarterback as well. Both of these teams have been recent league bottom-dwellers, so by finishing last each year, they actually play quite often. Jacksonville has gotten the better of the Raiders as of late, as they have gone 4-0 against the number head-to-head.
The reason I like Jacksonville to cover this week, is that they will have a better rushing attack against the Raiders, who gave up 127 yards on the ground to that fierce two-headed monster of Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw. The Jags will also most likely start Chad Henne, and of course that is an instant upgrade.
I don't know if the Jags can win this one outright, but I know that they will be in the ballpark at least, so grab the points.
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The Colts needed a bit of magic from Andrew Luck last week to escape the Raiders, while the Dolphins outlasted the Browns last week. Both of these teams will be looking to get off to that 2-0 proverbial hot start, and I really like the Dolphins on the road this week.
Miami has historically played well in Indy, as their 4-1 record against the spread certainly indicates. The main reason I like the Dolphins, is because their defense will be able to keep this game close. The Dolphins held Trent Richardson to 47 yards rushing last week, and also had three interceptions as well.
The Colts have a good offense, but their defense really does struggle to stop teams from going up and down the field on them. I love the Miami front-seven going against a sub-par Colts offensive line, and I wouldn't be surprised if they get to Andrew Luck for eight sacks this week.
Last week certainly went to the underdogs, and I have a feeling this trend will continue, so I will take the favorable three points here.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 31-20 (60.8%)
2013 Record: 3-3 (50.0%)
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Jets at Patriots (-11.5)
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Saints (-4) at Buccaneers
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Titans at Texans (-9)
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Patriots -11.5
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Bucs +4
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Titans +9
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The Patriots will be without Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Sudfeld for Thursday Night's game vs. the Jets. They also lost RB Shane Vereen who looked like he was ready to step right in and take the starter job from Stevan Ridley.
But I will take the Patriots all day here.
I think this is going to be one of those classic turn-the-game-off-at-halftime blowouts. Tom Brady in the National spotlight just after Peyton Manning from a week ago threw seven touchdowns. You know Brady is going to be ready and have a huge game. Brady has 350 yards and 4 TDs tonight.
New England's defense goes to the house twice as well, as they rout the Jets at home, 51-10.
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I like the Bucs at home on Sunday, not only to cover but to win this game outright. They played an absolutely terrible game on the road vs the Jets, but they always play the Saints tough especially at home. I think Doug Martin and the Bucs offense gets back on track versus a very mediocre Saints defense. The Tampa secondary is one of the best in the NFL, so I expect Drew Brees to have a little trouble in this one.
Bucs win at home 27-23.
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Too many points in this one. Houston is on a short week after playing a Monday nighter in San Diego. The Titans are on a high after beating Pittsburgh on the road. I think that Chris Johnson and the Titans offense gets on track here, and the Titans come close to pulling the upset. Texans, 30-28.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 29-22 (56.9%)
2013 Record: 1-6-2 (14.3%)
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Chargers at Eagles (-7)
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Cowboys at Chiefs (-3)
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49ers at Seahawks (-2.5)
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Chargers +7
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Chiefs -3
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49ers +2.5
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Chip Kelly’s offense had an impressive showing in his NFL debut, winning on Monday night over the Redskins. Conversely, the “same ol'” Chargers blew their second-quarter lead to the Texans.
So why take the Chargers, flying across country on short week?
The high profile nature of the victory for the Eagles and the impressive offensive display seems to have blown this line out of proportion. The Chargers were frisky against stout Texans team and I think they will be poised to compete. We are a culture of overreaction, often times we are too quick to jump to conclusions based on limited evidence.
Let’s hit the pause button on Chip Kelly’s offense and the new-look Eagles before crowning them the best offense since the ’07 Patriots or the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams. I’d like to see success at least two weeks in a row and Michael Vick to make the right decision a little more, let alone stay healthy in a high-risk offense.
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The second pick of the week, is the same song, different verse. The Cowboys won in a turnover-filled nightmare of a game on Sunday night over the Giants, yet proved nothing to me in terms being a competitive team this year.
The Giants had a disastrous six turnovers, but yet were still somehow alive to the end of the game. The Cowboys' offense didn’t capitalize nearly as much as they should have on those six turnovers – they “only” produced 16 points off those 6 turnovers.
Conversely, the Chiefs turned their two turnovers into 14 points in their route of the Jags. I’ll be the first to point out that stats can be twisted many ways to support one's arguments. In this case, I could have easily said that the Cowboys' offense was more effective because they weren’t as reliant on turnovers as the Chiefs to produce scores.
The Cowboys are sloppy at times and fail to exploit the other teams, while the Chiefs are well-coached and advantageous. I’ll take the Chiefs; I don’t trust the Cowboys.
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There’s one thing I learned watching the Seahawks in Week 1; they struggle on offense when they can’t run the ball. Marshawn Lynch is no longer “beast mode,” or least did not show it yet this season. Now, matched up against a great run-stopping team like the Niners, I anticipate Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense to struggle mightily this weekend. The ‘Hawks don’t have credible receiving options and this is where Seattle is going to really miss having Percy Harvin on the field.
Despite the big home field advantage the Seahawks have here, I just don’t see them competing with San Francisco’s offensive fire power. One other factor in the 49ers favor: Harbaugh > Carroll. For those who remember Carroll as the head coach of the Jets and Patriots, we should still have doubts about him for another season or so. Take the Niners, until proven wrong.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 20-28-3 (41.7%)
2013 Record: 5-3-1 (62.5%)
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Cowboys at Chiefs (-3)
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Saints (-4) at Buccaneers
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Steelers at Bengals (-6.5)
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Cowboys +3
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Bucs +4
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Bengals -6.5
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The Chiefs are clearly an improved team from last year. They have a new coach and a new quarterback, both of which are upgrades from last year, and they had an impressive Week 1 victory over the Jaguars, 28-2.
Still, even with that, I'm not ready to crown the Chiefs a playoff team just yet. Its tough to really tell just how good they are yet. I think Week 1 told us more about the incompetence of the Jags than it did about the quality of Kansas City's football team.
On the other hand, the Cowboys could be given mixed reviews from their Week 1 victory at home against the Giants. They forced six turnovers, but only won the game by five. I took more positives from the win, as Dez Bryant was heavily covered the whole game, and Tony Romo was still able to move the ball well without relying on his star wideout. Dez isn't going to be held down all season, and I think he and Romo could have big games at Kansas City.
I like the Cowboys +3, and probably to win a close one outright. This would be a 3-unit bet (out of a 5-unit max/scale).
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Historically, the worst bet in football is a small road favorite.
I know this one looks like a slam dunk win for the Saints. They are coming off a big win against division-rival Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Bucs just blew an ugly game against the Jets, a team most thought would be pretty terrible this year. I think the Bucs will turn it around, though, and give the Saints a game.
I don't particularly like them to win, but I'll go with history here and take the four points at home. This would be a 3-unit bet.
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I don't think that the Steelers are going to be as bad as they were in Week 1, a week in which they were neck and neck with the Jaguars for poorest overall performance of the week. I do, however, believe that they are just not as good as they've been in years past. It's hard to separate this year's team from the name on the jersey, but the Steelers really look like a mediocre team at best.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are coming off a tough three-point loss to the Bears in Chicago. It was a tough game to open up, but they still managed to lead most of the way. I don't think Cincinnati is going to start off the year 0-2, and I think their defense will keep Pittsburgh's scoring to a minimum, so I'll give the touchdown. This would be a 5-unit bet for me.
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