2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Week 17 (Trifone)

Here are my picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 17 of the 2015 NFL season:

Pittsburgh Steelers -11 over Cleveland Browns (4 units)

Week 17 is always tough to pick because you never know how coaches are going to decide to play it. They may rest players and try to see what they have in some younger guys, or they may treat it as any other Sunday. There are some games where it is easier to predict what coaching will do, and in this case, the Steelers are playing for their season.

After a huge stumble last week against Baltimore, they'll need help from the Bills to get in, but I think Pittsburgh will show up this week the way I expected them to last week. The Browns will be going with Austin Davis at quarterback and I just don't see a way that they can keep up with the high-powered offense of the Steelers. This one should be over quickly in a 38-10 type of game.

New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Atlanta Falcons (3 units)

Everyone seems to love the Falcons here, coming off a huge win against the formerly undefeated Panthers. Julio Jones needs 17 receptions and 243 yards to break single season receiving records in both categories. I love Julio, but he's unlikely to get either record, even against the Saints terrible defense. I've watched too much of the Falcons this year to be fooled by the previous week's performance.

Sometimes teams get up for big games. Prior to that win, Atlanta had been terrible and I expect them to come back down to earth. I think the Saints have a decent chance to win here, but either way, I'm certainly not laying 5.5. I'll take Julio in DFS all day, but his individual stats aren't going to win them the game. Take the points.

New England Patriots -10.5 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

I'm not sure what I think this spread should be, but it just doesn't feel high enough - even at 10.5. The Patriots have been decimated by injury, but they could put you and me out there against Miami and easily win this one. The Dolphins had a little surge after firing Joe Philbin midway through the season, but that has long since passed. I don't think that they can hang for long here. It feels like a big win for the Pats and a free coffee at Dunkin Donuts Monday morning for those of us living in New England.

Green Bay Packers -3 over Minnesota Vikings (5 units)

I don't know why, but I like the Packers to win and cover here. I admit I'm still in love with Aaron Rodgers and no matter how terrible his receiving corps is or how often he's been getting pressured in the pocket, I just believe. The Vikings look like one of the more fraudulent playoff teams this year and I'd pick them as least likely to win a playoff game of the teams in. I think they falter against Green Bay and the Packers gain a little momentum going into Wild Card weekend. Give the three.

- Note: We will track all of our 2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread here.

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