Week 8 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Here are my Week 8 NFL picks against the spread:

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (over Arizona Cardinals)

Sometimes you are what your record says you are, and sometimes you're not. In this case, neither team really is.

The Falcons are better than 2-4 and the Cardinals are worse than 3-4. Arizona does have a pretty good defense, but they're 26th in the league rushing the ball, and Carson Palmer appears to be a failed experiment. Larry Fitzgerald has not put up the kind of numbers he was expected to at the start of the year.

Last year, the Falcons were massively overrated. This year, they are underrated. Atlanta will win this game outright, so I'd take this game +120 on the ML, but definitely take the points here. Full five-unit wager, as this is my favorite bet of the week.

New York Giants +6 (at Philadelphia Eagles)

The Giants have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year. Nobody had this team starting 0-6. Still, the Giants got their first win under their belt this past Monday night, and I think they have some momentum to build on.

The Eagles are injury-plagued, and are coming off a bad home loss to Dallas. While Michael Vick is getting the start, Matt Barkley is just a hit away from getting in the game. It's pretty clear Vick is not yet 100 percent, so either way, Philly is looking at a difficult QB situation.

I think this is another pretty good ML bet on the Giants at 2-1, but I certainly like this game to be much closer than the last game these two played. Six points is way too much. This is another 5-unit bet.

* Play Daily Fantasy Football and get a 100-percent deposit bonus from DraftKings.

Miami Dolphins +7 (over New England Patriots)

The public still loves betting the Pats, so I'm going to keep taking the value against them. They were as high as 5-point favorites at New York last week. The public sees them getting Rob Gronkowski back and reacts.

But if you look deeper at the injuries the Pats have had (Vince Wilfork, Aqib Talib, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola among others), it becomes more clear that the Patriots won't be able to sustain the win rate. Even if you disagree and think they can, they're not going to be winning big enough in these games to cover the kind of spreads they're giving. Of the Pats five wins, only one was by more than a touchdown, against the lowly Bucs, and three of them were by three points or less.

The Dolphins did not look very good against Buffalo, but it doesn't justify being a seven-point 'dog to an injury-ridden division rival. The Patriots have a chance to get people back and put all of the pieces together by year end, but until then, enjoy the inflated spreads they've been getting. They're currently 3-4 ATS, although if they had come up short against New Orleans like they should have, they would be 2-5. Either way, you're a winner on the season taking the points against them.

Until the lines start reflecting the actual product we're seeing as opposed to the name on the jersey, I'll probably continue to take the value against them. Another five-unit bet here.

Five of our contributors make three weekly picks ATS every week and they will be posted here.

Week 8 fantasy rankings: Quarterbacks - Running Backs - Wide Receivers - Tight Ends

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

DraftKings: Open an account and get a 100% deposit bonus (up to $600).

Check Out the Most Recent Posts on The Daily Blitz

Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Yanotchko Nov 23, 2014
Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson Nov 23, 2014
Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Trifone Nov 23, 2014
Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Beazley Nov 22, 2014
2014 Fantasy Football Week 12 Start'em, Sit'em Nov 21, 2014
2015 NFL Mock Draft - Week 12 Update Nov 21, 2014
Fantasy Football Week 12: Underrated Players in PPR Leagues Nov 20, 2014
2014 NFL Power Rankings: Week 12 Nov 19, 2014
Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season (ROS) Rankings: Weeks 12 to 16 Nov 18, 2014
Updated Fantasy Football QB Strength of Schedule (SOS): Weeks 12 to 16 Nov 18, 2014


TrackBack URL for this entry:

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Our FREE Week 13 Fantasy Football Contest
Want to win one of our site's t-shirts for free?

>> Enter our free Week 13 contest.

(Spots in the contest are limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis up until kickoff on Sunday.)