Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Here are my Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

Washington Redskins +6 (over Atlanta Falcons)

On paper, I actually think that the more defendable pick here is to take the Falcons at home. Sometimes, however, the better pick isn't the one that you can justify with numbers from the past. I'm going to go with my gut on this one, and say that Kirk Cousins and the Redskins are going to be tired of all the RGIII, Mike Shanahan, and Daniel Snyder talk, and they're just going to go out there and play.

Cousins has been pretty good in the limited time he's had to play, and these last three games are his first real opportunity to prove to the league that he is a starting quarterback. I think the Redskins have a good chance to win outright, but definitely should have enough to keep it close, against a Falcons team that has not been very good all year.

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Miami Dolphins +1 (over New England Patriots)

The Patriots had really begun to show that they were a legitimate contender in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl. Even though the defensive side of the ball has still struggled (especially against the run since Vince Wilfork got hurt), the offense was really coming together.

More than anything else, the presence of a guy like Rob Gronkowski just makes everyone else better. He can draw coverages away from lesser receivers, as the defenses are forced to pay more attention to him, and, at the same time, still be the go-to and big-play guy that the Patriots offense has lacked this year. Unfortunately for the Patriots, with Gronk out again, the offense will likely stumble the way they have in many of the games without him.

The Patriots scored 32 PPG with Gronk and only 20.8 without him. Tom Brady's passer rating is under 80 without him, and just under 96 with him. They're a different team with him on the sideline, and the Dolphins are playing for the No. 6 seed in the AFC. They just got a big road win in Pittsburgh last week, and are going home to play a division rival at the right time. I'll take Miami to win this one.

Oakland Raiders +6 (over Kansas City Chiefs)

I think that this spread came out at four at the start of the week, and it has moved all the way up to six. The public just saw the Raiders get smoked by the Jets and the Chiefs pummel a dysfunctional Redskins team.

They've moved the line a couple of points, and I just can't resist taking a home underdog in a division game like this. The Chiefs will more than likely win the game, but six points is a pretty sizable number for the home team to be getting.

I think the line movement is an overreaction to last week, where both games just got out of hand. I'll take the points here.

Five of our contributors make three weekly picks ATS every week and they will be posted here.

Week 15 fantasy rankings: Quarterbacks - Running Backs - Wide Receivers - Tight Ends

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