Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Trifone

We are only days away from the kickoff to the 2014 NFL (regular) season and that's actually the game I like the best this week in terms of picks against the spread (ATS).

[Editor's note: Our contributors will pick 2-5 games per week this season and include a number of units (from 1-5) along with their picks. And we will choose from teams ATS as well as game score over/unders.]

Here are all of my Week 1 picks:

Green Bay Packers + 6 over Seattle Seahawks (4 units)

The Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl Champs, but they have a tough opening game against Green Bay this Thursday. Before Aaron Rodgers got hurt, the Pack were one of the best teams in the league. The emergence of Eddie Lacy has given them a legitimate running game to go with their already formidable quarterback and wide receivers. It wouldn't shock me to see Green Bay win this one outright, but either way, I expect a pretty close game. Seattle has the largest home-field advantage in the league, but I'll still take the Packers getting the six.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 units)

Going into the season, it's really hard to lay a double-digit point total. The preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, and it's hard to know exactly how good teams are until we've at least seen a few games that count. The Jags started off last year 0-8, but were able to finish the last half of the season going 4-4. The Eagles have a tough offense to keep up with, but I don't expect Nick Foles to have the same 27:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio he had last year. The Eagles should win this one, but I'll take Jacksonville with the 10.5 points.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 over Carolina Panthers (3 units)

The Panthers were among the best defensive units in the league last year. Their offense has been revamped, though, and I expect it to take them some time to figure things out. The Bucs have Doug Martin back and a new quarterback in Josh McCown that was terrific last year. I like Tampa to have a bounce-back year, and like them to beat Carolina at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers — Under 39.5 (3 units)

In addition to liking Tampa to win and cover, I also believe this will be a defensive struggle with points coming at a premium. I see this as a 20-13 kind of game, so I think 39.5 is too high. I'll take the under here.

[Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag]

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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