Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Trifone

Here are my Week 4 picks against the spread:

Green Bay Packers -2 over Chicago Bears (3 units)

I'm going to listen to Aaron Rodgers and relax regarding the Packers 1-2 start to the season. This is a critical game for them early in the season, as a 1-3 record and 0-2 in the division is deep hole from which to come back. The Bears have been playing well, but weren't particularly great against the Jets. They got some fortuitous turnovers, and I don't expect Aaron Rodgers to make the kinds of mistakes Geno Smith made. Give me the Packers to win and cover 2.

New York Jets +2.5 over Detroit Lions (3 units)

Calvin Johnson missed practice again on Thursday, and his status for this week's game is unknown. While I'm guessing he'll play, if he's less than 100 percent, that's going to hurt the Lions offense, and I'm just not totally sold on the Lions just yet. The Jets, meanwhile, played a mistake-ridden game on Monday night against the Bears, but I believe they will avoid back-to-back home losses. Take the Jets at home.

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Jacksonville Jaguars +13.5 over San Diego Chargers (3 units)

I hate myself every time I take the Jags to cover a spread because they have just been terrible to start the year. However, with Blake Bortles starting, I think it will give them a spark, and should keep them within two touchdowns of the Chargers. San Diego is a good team, and will be most people's Survivor pick to win this week. I agree that they'll win the game, but I expect it to be closer than 13.5.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings — Under 46.5 (3 units)

The Falcons just put up a 56 spot on the Thursday game last week. Still, they're not the same team on the road. I don't think they'll score at near the same rate this week, against a better Vikings defense. I also expect Minnesota to look to control the clock a bit with Teddy Bridgewater set to make his first start. Forty-seven just feels like too much for this game. I like a 23-17 type of a game — well under the total.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

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