Ace Bailey - NBA Mock Draft Roundup 1.0

Ace Bailey is a complicated prospect with tremendous upside who is likely to have scouts split in their evaluation process. While he is 6-foot-10, there are some concerns about his shot selection and his passing. Bailey, regardless, is one of the most productive mid-range shooters among all recent prospects. But there are real reasons for evaluators to have concerns about his touch as he is shooting fairly poorly from the free-throw line.

There's an increasingly wide range of opinions on Bailey, which is somewhat ironic considering he fits the athletic jumbo wing archetype that is in such high demand and also has some real shot-making to match. The concerns, which are the same as they were in high school, are based on his shot selection, decision-making, lack of rim pressure for such an athlete, and overall inconsistency.

January has shown us the biggest pros and cons with Ace Bailey's shotmaking, positional measurements, tough shot selection and limited burst/handle.

With Dylan Harper out, he exploded for 39 points, carrying Rutgers and generating offense with his jump shot and ridiculous release point. He then combined to shoot 8-of-31 in losses to Wisconsin and Purdue, having trouble earning easy baskets.

Bailey bounced back for an efficient performance against UCLA, where he picked his spots better, didn't force plays and used his length to disrupt defensively.

Even considering Bailey's weaknesses, NBA teams are going to feel a sense of comfort with a 6'10" wing who offers special shooting skills and an ability to create separation just by using his positional height/length.

Bailey has turned into a highly polarizing player for scouts. What's unquestionable is his ability to create and make shots. He is about as ridiculous a shot-taker and shot-maker as you'll find, and no player's three-minute highlight reel this year will look better. You can put together a highlight package that makes him look like he's the NBA's next great elite wing creator because of his ability to make difficult shots. And yet, there's a lot that teams are worried about.

On those pull-up jumpers that Bailey loves to take, he's only made about 40 percent from the midrange and 33 percent from 3, per Synergy. In half-court settings, Bailey is creating attempts at the rim fewer than two times per game and only making them at a 54 percent clip despite being listed at 6-10 and possessing ridiculous levels of explosiveness. Moreover, Bailey is only averaging 0.7 assists per game. That's an almost impossible to believe nine assists in 406 minutes for someone who has the ball in their hands an awful lot.

But it's also worth remembering Bailey won't turn 19 until after draft day. While it is important to focus on what he struggles to do right now, he also is one of the better shot-makers I've ever evaluated at this age. Scouts still see the upside with Bailey if his development goes right over the next three years. I tend to be pretty averse to this type of player, and I still can't get him outside of my top four. Even if he does end up being just a shot-maker, he has a real chance to be very Michael Porter Jr.-like in his ability to hit catch-and-shoot 3s and create in a straight line. Part of why Porter has been so successful is that he's landed in a perfect spot next to Nikola Jokić, and a big part of why I have Bailey at No. 4 on my board is that no one has come and taken the slot from him. There's still much to be intrigued by with Bailey's ability to put the ball in the basket, and I've liked several flashes from him defensively this season as a switchable player with real size.

Utah will likely take a patient approach with its roster and should have a strong chance to select early in this lottery. A big, explosive wing such as Bailey would be a grand addition for the Jazz after a difficult season, offering All-Star potential with his exceptional shot-making prowess and overall scoring instincts. He has been up and down from game to game and possession to possession on both ends of the floor, but he is one of the draft's best shooters. He brings insatiable aggressiveness and a strong motor defensively.

Scouts will be watching how much the game slows down for Bailey as the season moves on with his shot selection, decision-making and feel for the game a significant work in progress. Still, he's young (18) and has a world of potential -- often making impossible shots look easy but he's also mistake-prone on both ends. -- Givony

The 6-10 Bailey can play any position on the floor and makes some very difficult shots look incredibly easy, averaging 19 points and eight rebounds per game. It's a skill to be a tough shotmaker, and Scarlet Knights head coach Steve Pikiell has told me multiple times that Bailey is the most unique prospect he's ever coached because of the amount of upside he possesses and the amount of "wow" plays he can make. That's still too hard for me to pass on at No. 3 in this draft.