2012 Fantasy Football Profile: Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
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Updated: August 5, 2012
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While he may not have the upside of today's elite tight ends, Cowboys tight end Jason Witten is one of the safest and most reliable at the position.
Over the course of the past five seasons, no tight end has more receiving yards than Witten (5,071). In addition, he is one of only 11 players with 5,000-plus yards during that span. The only other tight ends with at least 4,000 yards during that span are Tony Gonzalez (4,639) and Antonio Gates (4,405).
During that stretch, Witten has three 1,000-yard seasons, which accounts for 30 percent of the 1,000-yard seasons by tight ends during that span. The only other tight end with multiple 1,000-yard seasons during that stretch in Gonzalez with two.
Not only does Witten lead all tight ends in receiving yards, he also leads them in receptions (444) during that span as well. Only five players have more receptions than Witten during that span.
One of the things Witten's detractors will point out is that he set five-year lows last year with 79 receptions and 942 yards. Aside from the pair of 1,300-yard tight ends last season (Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham), however, no other tight end had more receiving yards than Witten.
Those with a glass-half-empty view would counter that Witten averaged only 58.9 yards per game, which ranked sixth amongst tight ends last year. The reason Witten finished third in the yards, though, is due to his ability to stay on the field.
Since his 15-game rookie season (2003), Witten has played in 16 games for eight consecutive years.
While Miles Austin missed six games and had a down year, there were many games where the Cowboys had three productive and/or talented receivers on the field with Austin, Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson. Partly due to the presence of those receivers, Witten saw his targets drop from 128 in 2010 to 117 last year.
With Robinson signing with the Jaguars this offseason, Witten should see his targets increase (or at least remain steady).
Although plenty of tight ends have a higher ceiling than Witten, he has one of the highest floors. You can bank on 16 games, 75 receptions and 900 yards but with upside for a bit more receptions and yards.
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Strength of Schedule
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Based on the cumulative fantasy points allowed to tight ends last year by all of the Cowboys' opponents this year,
Witten and Cowboys' tight ends have the 16th-most favorable schedule from a fantasy perspective and 22nd-most
favorable in the fantasy postseason (Weeks 14-16).
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- Resources: Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule | Team Schedule (Tickets: TicketCity | SeatGeek)
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2012 Outlook
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Witten is my fourth-ranked fantasy tight end behind Gronkowski, Graham and Aaron Hernandez in standard-scoring
leagues and behind only Gronkowski and Graham in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. He won't cost you a high
pick, but he should come close to another 1,000-yard season.
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Dynasty Outlook
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Entering his tenth NFL season, the 30-year-old tight end out of Tennessee is closer to the end of his career than the
beginning. Even if his best is behind him, there's no reason why he can't be productive for a few more years. But his
value is clearly higher in redraft than dynasty leagues.
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2012 Projection: 85 Receptions, 935 Yards, 6 TDs
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