CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 63.3% (31-18-2)
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Giants (-9) at Chiefs
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Bengals (-6) at Browns
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Packers at Vikings (-3.5)
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Giants -9
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Bengals -6
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Packers +3.5
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The Giants may have a secondary (and team
in general) that's banged up, but man can
they cover. In the past three seasons, the
Giants are 29-11 against the spread (ATS).
On the road, they are an amazing 17-3 ATS.
Arrowhead may be a tough place to play and
Kansas City fans are passionate. But the
Chiefs are 4-12 ATS in the past three
seasons. The Chiefs have put up the
third-fewest offensive yards through three
weeks (264.3 ypg) and only five teams have
allowed more points scored (28.3 ppg) than
the Chiefs.
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The Browns are bad. (Someone say, "How
bad are they?") They are so bad that
they've scored only one offensive
touchdown in nine games. Through three
games in 2009, they are averaging a
league low of 218 offensive yards per
game. In week four, the "Man-genius" will
make a change at QB and play Derek
Anderson, who threw three interceptions in
the second half last week against the
Ravens. The Bengals defense is tied for the
NFL lead in sacks (10). The Browns have
seen their quarterback get sacked 11
times, which is the second most in the
league. That seems like a match made in
heaven.
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Last week, Brett Favre led the Vikings to a
27-24 win over the 49ers on a last-second
touchdown pass to Greg Lewis. That is the
gun-slinging Favre at his best. So far this
season, Favre has been efficient throwing
five touchdowns and only one interception.
The emotions are going to be running high
on Monday night. Regardless of what he
says, Favre wants badly to stick it to the
Packers -- or specifically to Packers GM Ted
Thompson. I expect Favre to try to do too
much and make a few (or a lot of)
mistakes. In the past three seasons
(including one with Favre as QB), the
Packers are 10-3 against the spread when
playing division rivals.
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Dan
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 60.0% (30-20-1)
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Bengals (-6) at Browns
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Jets at Saints (-7)
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Packers at Vikings (-3.5)
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Bengals -6
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Saints -7
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Packers +3.5
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Let's get the first selection by breaking down
the battle of Ohio. Cleveland comes into this
game needing something, anything to get
their season on track, while the Bengals are
coming off a great win against Pittsburgh. It
appears Mangini is trying to pull out all the
stops, and looks to have named Derek
Anderson the starter, after Brady Quinn was
battered by the Ravens. I really don't think a
QB swap will help, as Cleveland appears to be
far beyond crummy quarterback play. The
Bengals look to establish their ground game
with Cedric Benson who is third in the league
in rushing, and must be licking his chops as
Cleveland boasts the 30th-ranked rushing
defense in the league. Cincinnati has been
running lopsided against the Browns winning 7
of the last 9 meetings, and goes against an
0-3 vs the spread Cleveland squad. Cleveland
is also 1-10-1 vs the spread in their last
twelve contests. Look for a healthy dose of
the ground pound, and get Ochocinco a
smartphone at halftime to send out tweets,
because technically this game will be over by
halftime.
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What a slate of games this week! The
remote will be working overtime in
DannyKGB's bunker this Sunday for sure.
The game where something has to give,
pits the ultra-confident Jets vs the offensive
juggernaut in the Saints in the Superdome.
Both teams have started fast going 3-0
straight up, and 3-0 vs the spread, but like
so many Jets' teams of the past October
has been the month for tricks instead of
treats. The Jets are 1-7 in their last 8
games against the spread in October, and
will go against the strong trend of New
Orleans of being 8-1-1 against the number.
In case you might have missed it, the Jets
have developed a very good corner in
Darelle Revis, but the real test for Rex
Ryan will be the variety Drew Brees brings
to the passing game. If Colston is covered
you can expect Shockey or Devery
Henderson to be open. The Saints can win
through the air, or also on the ground with
Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush in the flat.
The Dome will be rocking, and this is the
game that the Jets will prove that they are
still the B squad in New Jersey football. Lay
the big red 7, and look for the Saints to
come out on top in the Big Easy.
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You might not have heard, but Brett Farve
is still playing football, and this is the game
he has been waiting for. Farve is looking for
revenge vs his former team, who did
nothing wrong but kept asking him, "Well
are you going to play this year or not,
because we kind of need to know the
direction of our team." Green Bay comes
into the series against Minnesota winning 4
of the last 5, and would be 5-0 if not for a
missed field goal. Green Bay also has
compiled a 7-1 record vs the spread in their
last 8 games vs the NFC North, while the
Vikings are 2-6 against the same
competition. Green Bay has brought a
balanced attack to the table, and has used
timely takeaways to frustrate their
opponents. The classic way to beat the
Vikings is through the air, and the Packers
have plenty of weapons in Greg Jennings
and Donald Driver. Look for this to be a
classic game of Brett Farve trying to do too
much, Brad Childress handing the playbook
and the keys to his car, while ignoring the
best weapon in the league in Adrian
Peterson. Take the points for the battle of
NFC North supremacy, or just if you are a
believer in karma.
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Sean
2009 Record: 55.2% (16-13-1)
2008 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
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Ravens at Patriots (-1.5)
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Raiders at Texans (-9)
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Cowboys (-3) at Broncos
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Patriots -1.5
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Raiders +9
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Cowboys -3
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This is a huge test for the Ravens this week,
and this line is dropping fast. Baltimore still
lacks playmakers at the corner position, and I
think it will be another great week from Moss
& Brady. The Patriots were brilliant last week
against Atlanta with an actual ball control
offense. This isn't KC or Cleveland this
week, I expect superstar Joe Flacco to come
back down to earth in this one. People are
still overlooking New England, and they really
shouldn't be. The Patriots are back on the
map after an impressive win vs a Super Bowl
caliber team.
New England 20 Baltimore 14
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First off, I think the Texans are a playoff
team this year. I expect big things
offensively over the next 5-6 weeks out of
their big 3. Oakland just got embarassed
last week vs Denver scoring only 3 points
versus one of the league's worst defenses.
Houston can't stop anybody either. 24, 31,
31 points allowed in the first 3 weeks of the
season, and where they were beat was on
the ground. The one thing Oakland can do
is run the football. I expect a big game
from their collection of backs, and I
wouldn't be shocked to see them winning
this game outright late in the game. I like
the over of 42 as well.
Houston 28 Oakland 23
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Cincinnati, Cleveland & Oakland were
Denver's first three opponents. Believe
me, this team is not that good, and they
finally get a test this week with Dallas
coming to town. The Dallas defense looked
pretty good making some big plays vs the
Panthers and I have no doubt in my mind
that they come into this game and win it
easily. If not, Wade Phillips should be fired
on the spot. This is a pretty easy game for
me here, and I will make this my largest
play of the year so far. Denver has the
Cowboys number beating them 7 out of
their last 10 games spanning back to 1995.
In fact, the Cowboys haven't won in Mile
High since 1992 which was also the first
year of 3 superbowl wins in the 90's. I
expect this trend to end, as Dallas is clearly
better all around then Denver.
Dallas 30 Denver 16
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Jamie
2009 Record: 43.3% (13-17)
2008 Record: 55.1% (27-22-2)
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Cowboys (-3) at Broncos
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Titans (-3) at Jaguars
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Ravens at Patriots (-1.5)
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Cowboys -3
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Titans -3
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Patriots -1.5
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Dallas is on the short week here traveling to
the thin air in Mile High, but you still have to
like Dallas here. I understand the Broncos
currently have the #1 D in the NFL, but they
have yet to play a team with the weapons
they will see this week. MB3 from all
indications is a go this week and Dallas
should win this one by 7+ as long as Garrett
calls a smart game unlike last week with 2
fades from the 1 yard line.
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This will be the week the Titans get their
first win of the season. They should be able
to control both sides of the ball and
dominate TOP in this one. With Indy and
New England next up for the Titans, they
will come out fired up as this is really a
must-win or they are staring 0-6 in the
face. This would be my play of the week
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This is easily the game of the week in my
opinion. Welker should be a go and Brady
should be finishing shaking of the rust after
three weeks. The Ravens are a very solid
team led by Joe Flacco and a insane D.
There's no debating that. But Belichick will
show some things that will lead to some
confusion and the Pats will win this one with
a late FG. At home here got to love the
Pats.
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