CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 63.3% (31-18-2)
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Patriots (-3) at Broncos
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Vikings (-10) at Rams
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Texans at Cardinals (-5.5)
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Patriots -3
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Vikings -10
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Texans +5.5
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The Denver Broncos are 4-0 and remain as
one of only two unbeaten teams in the AFC.
Yet for a second week in a row they are home
underdogs. Despite the initial criticisms and
challenges Josh McDaniels faced, he and
defensive coordinator Mike Nolan have done a
great coaching job in the Mile High city. Kyle
Orton (QB rating 97.7) has outplayed Jay
Cutler (QB rating 89.3) and the Broncos lead
the NFL in scoring defense (6.5 points per
game). The Broncos are second in the total
defense (239.8 yards per game) and in sacks
(15). While the Broncos are certainly better
than I -- and everyone else -- thought, their
level of competition has been relatively low.
Although the Patriots have lost Fred Taylor for
considerable time (if not the season), it
appears that the Patriots offense is beginning
to click as they converted three scores in five
trips to the redzone against Baltimore.
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These two teams are polar opposites. The
Rams are the league's worst team and
Minnesota is one of the few unbeatens
remaining in the NFC. Through four
games, the Rams still have no rushing
touchdowns and their passing offense ranks
second-to-last (152.8 yards per game).
The Vikings are one of two teams to not
allow a rushing touchdown yet this season
and lead the NFL in sacks (16). The other
team to not have allowed a rushing
touchdown (San Francisco) shut out the
Rams 35-0 last weel. The Rams have lost
three of their four games by more than 20
points. My only concern is the Vikings let
up and take their opponent for granted in a
short week after an emotional divisional
game. But they are easily 20 points better
than their opponent.
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Although the numbers through four games
don't show it, this game should be an
old-fashioned shootout. Both the Texans
and Cardinals have explosive offenses and
this will be a game of high interest for
many fantasy owners as both teams are
stacked with talented skill players.
However, the Cardinals have a
one-dimensional offense as they rank
second-to-last in rushing offense (60.7
yards per game). And as bad as the
Texans have been against the run, they
shut down the Raiders (granted, it was the
Raiders) running game last week.
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Dan
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 60.0% (30-20-1)
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Bengals at Ravens (-8.5)
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Buccaneers at Eagles (-15)
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Vikings (-10) at Rams
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Bengals +8.5
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Eagles -15
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Vikings -10
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Week 5, and who would have thought that this
would be the game for first place in the AFC
North? In getting back to my winning ways, I
looked at the numbers for this contest, and
like what I see as it hits lots of points on my
Ochocinco-like checklist. Divisional game with
a spread greater than a TD, a rejuvenated
Carson Palmer going against the 25th ranked
passing defense in Baltimore, and Cincinnati
coming in winning 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Last week, the Bengals squeaked out a win vs
the hapless Browns, but it seems to me that
the Bengals have been playing to the level of
their competition this year. The Ravens come
in after a tough loss from the case of the
drops against New England, and will look to
rebound with a win. I look for Carson Palmer
to exploit what has become a soft secondary
in Baltimore, and will be looking up Ochocinco
and Andre Caldwell during the game. In
looking at Cincinnati's track record so far
every game they have played in has been
decided by 7 pts or less this year, so no
matter what happens they are keeping it
tight. 8.5 is too big a number to lay in a
divisional game of this magnitude, so take
the points when in doubt.
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Normally I don't like double-digit spreads,
but right now the Bucs are playing like the
Lions of last year, and no that isn't a
compliment to how hard they are trying.
The Eagles come in rested off a bye, giving
time to heal up some early-season injuries
to Brian Westbrook and Donavan McNabb.
The Bucs come in after a tough loss to
Washington, where they couldn't finish even
after picking off Jason Campbell 3 times.
So far this season Philly has pounded the
teams they should winning by 20 and 28,
while Tampa has been pounded by the
following margins of 24,13,13 respectively.
I would look for a good mix of Westbrook
and impressive rookie LeSean McCoy, and
the continued emergence of DeSean
Jackson for Philly. I also love the matchup
of a QB making his second career start
versus the 2nd-ranked passing defense,
who already had a game against New
Orleans compiled in. I like laying the 15
here, as Philly will look to manhandle
Tampa all day.
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Poor St. Louis, they have one heck of a
rebuilding project underway, and now the
word comes that Rush Limbaugh is looking
to become a partial owner of the team, well
when it rains it pours I suppose. So can this
be the Vikings coming off a huge win
against rival Green Bay with Favre getting
his revenge, could this be the proverbial
trap game? Well, if St. Louis looked better
against top flight competition I would say
yes, but we should go on track record here,
so far except for Washington the Rams
have been destroyed by the margins of
35.29, and 28. The only offensive weapon
to speak of is Steven Jackson, and his
daunting task is to go up against the
Williams wall. Minnesota will look to get
thier running game on track, as all day
Adrian Peterson has looked pedestrian the
past few weeks, but will go up against the
25th ranked rushing defense. Of course I
have to jump on the Jared Allen
bandwagon, after all reports are he played
with a sinus infection on Monday night, and
will have plenty of chances to meet Kyle
Boller behind a revamped Rams line. Two
big lays this week, but I like the favorites
to crush the competition.
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Sean
2009 Record: 55.2% (16-13-1)
2008 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
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Patriots (-3) at Broncos
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Falcons at 49ers (-2.5)
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Redskins at Panthers (-3.5)
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Patriots -3
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Falcons +2.5
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Panthers -3.5
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Another tough week picking. You won't be
seeing me pick the Raiders again this season.
LOL. I think the Patriots are the safest pick
this week only laying 3 points in Denver. Is
Denver for real? Doubt it. I think they are
going to be due for a HUGE letdown after the
great win last week vs the Cowboys. Denver
had won 5 of 6 games vs the Patriots going
into last year's game where the Patriots were
3-point favorites at home vs the Broncos.
That was pretty much Matt Cassel and the
Patriots offense wake-up party, and their
defense played great in a 41-7 beat down.
This year it is Tom Brady's turn. Knock
Denver off the group of undefeated teams.
Patriots win big 34-14.
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I really do like this SF team, and think they
will be the team that ends up winning this
division now, but I think SF lacks the play
makers on offense with Gore out of the
lineup. They struggled last week against
the Rams for most of the game. Three
defensive touchdowns helps. This week
they battle an Atlanta team fresh off a bye
week after a bad loss in New England. I
expect the Falcons to get back on track this
week with a well-balanced offensive attack
and win this one out right. This isn't an
NFC West team, San Fran.
Atlanta 23 San Fransisco 17
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This line opened at -6 and has been
dropping like crazy. Carolina is 0-3 and
struggling big time this year, but I think
they will win this one with ease.
Washington has only beat St.Louis &
Tampa Bay, arguably the two worst teams
in the NFL. In the NFC, Carolina still has
an outside chance at turning around their
season and making the playoffs as 9-7
might get you the #6 seed in this
conference. This is a must-win game, and
I think the Panthers get it done with a
healthy combo of Deangelo Williams &
Jonathan Stewart .
Carolina 24 Washingon 19
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Jamie
2009 Record: 43.3% (13-17)
2008 Record: 55.1% (27-22-2)
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Vikings (-10) at Rams
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Patriots (-3) at Broncos
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Falcons at 49ers (-2.5)
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Vikings -10
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Patriots -3
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Falcons +2.5
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Could Brett Favre be winning another super
bowl ring this year? If he continues managing
games as he has with this Vikings team, it's
very possible. He did start off hot last year
and faded away down the stretch so it's hard
to say what will happen this year. But for now
you have to love the Vikes to cover this one.
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Denver showed last week not to take them
lightly but the Pats are coming to town to
make a statement. And unlike last week
the Pats have a Qb they can trust and will
win this one by 7+ vs another Belicheck
disciple.
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SF is a much improved team. But the Dirty
Birds led by Matt Ryan will win this tough
game in SF by a FG+. Atlanta's D has also
been playing solid and the loss of Frank
Gore we be the deciding factor in this one.
Take the Birds off the bye week.
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