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EatDrinkandSleepFootball.com
Where Football's a Way of Life!
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Our FREE picks against the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 63.3% (31-18-2)
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Vikings at Steelers (-5)
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Falcons at Cowboys (-4)
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Cardinals at Giants (-7)
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Steelers -5
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Falcons +4
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Giants -7
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The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard
rusher in 24 straight games and their run
defense ranks second in the NFL. The Vikings
are tied for the NFL lead in sacks (21).
Although both teams are known for their great
defenses, this game features the leader in
passing yards (Ben Roethlisberger), rushing
yards (Adrian Peterson) and receiving yards
(Hines Ward) through six weeks. The Vikings
are tied for second in turnover differential
(+8) and Brett Favre has only two
interceptions. For a QB that has averaged
1.12 INT's/game throughout his illustrious yet
lengthy career, however, a regression to the
mean is long overdue. Take the Steelers and
give the points.
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The rule of thumb is that home-field
advantage equates to three points.
Therefore, this spread implies that the
Cowboys are better (albeit by one point,
but better nonetheless) than the Falcons on
a neutral field. Really? As a Cowboys' fan,
I'd like to believe that. But I can't. The
Cowboys are coming off a bye and have
had an extra week to prepare, which makes
it an uphill battle for the Falcons. That
being said, the Cowboys, who have a -4
turnover differential, tend to shoot
themselves in the foot. Atlanta's turnover
differential is +5. Although defense isn't
Atlanta's strength, they rank fourth in the
NFL in scoring defense (15.4 ppg) and
haven't given up more than 26 points in
any game this season. If the Falcons don't
win this game outright, they should at least
keep this game close.
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Not only are the Cardinals one-dimensional
on offense (5th in passing, 31st in
rushing), they are one-dimensional on
defense as well. They lead the NFL in
rushing defense (59.6 ypg) and have held
Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton and
Frank Gore to 66, 39 and 30 rushing yards,
respectively. However, their pass defense
has allowed 265.2 passing yards per game,
which is worse than every team except
Tennessee. On the other hand, the Giants
are more balanced with the following
rankings: rush offense (5), pass offense
(12), run defense (18) and pass defense
(1). After an embarrassing loss to New
Orleans, the Giants will come out swinging
after last week's "Big Queasy" performance.
In the past three years, the Giants are 5-0
against the spread (ATS) in games versus
NFC West opponents.
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Dan
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 60.0% (30-20-1)
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Chiefs at Chargers (-5)
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Colts (-13.5) at Rams
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Packers (-7) at Browns
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Chargers -5
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Colts -13.5
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Packers -7
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Stop me if you have seen this before. The
Chiefs are a struggling team at 1-5, will be
hosting the struggling Chargers at 2-3 this
week at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are coming in
off a positive road win in Washington, while
the Chargers come to town after a tough loss
at home to the surging Broncos. It always
seems that when more pressure is placed on
San Diego, the better the results on the field.
Although Kansas City has shown offensive
prowess this year, their defense leaves much
to be desired. Kansas City comes into this
game with both the 27th-ranked passing and
rushing defense. They have struggled to
generate a pass rush, and Larry Johnson only
has 200 yards more rushing than Matt
Cassell. San Diego also comes into this
meeting winning 4 out of the last 5, and the
Chiefs are 2-6 vs the spread at home in their
last 8 games. I would look for Philip Rivers to
have a huge day, and a very good chance for
LaDainian Tomlinson to have over 100 yards
rushing this week. Lay the points as the
Chargers desperately need the win to remain
in the playoff picture.
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Well, I don't know if my recent trend for
laying huge margins has worked lately, but
so far I am 2-1, and who could have
foreseen the Eagles laying an egg vs
Oakland. The Colts come in fresh off a bye,
to pretty much another bye against those
same ol' Rams. The Colts season so far
has been machine-like, missing a few
gears the first two weeks, and then
unstoppable the past 3 games. St. Louis
has struggled mightily this year as they are
still in rebuilding mode, and things will not
get better for their 28th-ranked passing
defense when Peyton Manning comes to
town. Manning has been lights out this
year, and leads the league in QB rating with
114.1. Indy is also 4-1 vs the spread this
year, while the Rams are 3-9 vs the spread
in their last 12 home games. I expect the
Colts to keep on flying with their passing
attack, and for fantasy purposes all the
Colts offensive pieces are a start this week.
Steven Jackson is playing well despite not
finding the end zone, but he alone will not
be enough to slow Indy down.
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Guess it looks like blowout week here at
The Weekly Blitz, but anytime you have a
less than 10-point spread against an awful
team you have to take it. Another trend I
noticed is that in all of my picks this week I
like top tier quarterbacks going against
horrible pass defenses if that makes
sense. Last week Ben Roethlisberger
torched the Browns for 417 yards passing,
and the Packers did what the Eagles forgot
to do and pounded a crummy Lions team.
The Packers have beaten the Lions by 26,
and the winless Rams by 19 both on the
road, as every game is crucial in the NFC
North race this year. I like Aaron Rodgers
facing the 25th-ranked passing defense,
and Cleveland has also lost their leading
tackler of the past two years in D'Qwell
Jackson for the year. To make matters
worse, Browns coach Eric Mangini has been
compared to Augusts Gloop of Willy Wonka
and the Chocolate factory fame in the most
recent issue of Rolling Stone magazine. I
would give the 7 as the only weapon to
speak of on Cleveland is Joshua Cribbs,
and he can't touch the ball enough as
Green Bay punts will be few and far between.
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Sean
2009 Record: 55.2% (16-13-1)
2008 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
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Chiefs at Chargers (-5)
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Colts (-13.5) at Rams
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49ers at Texans (-3)
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Chargers -5
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Colts -13.5
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Texans -3
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I know this is a division game, and Kansas
City historically plays well at home, but the
time is now for the Chargers if they want to
get back into the race in the AFC West. The
Chiefs beat the Redskins, let's not get all
crazy here. This line is pretty low, and I am
sure there will be a ton of action on San Diego
here. San Diego is definitely not the Super
Bowl caliber team that I thought they would be
before the season started, losing stud DT
Jamal Williams and C Nick Hardwick has really
hurt this team. One thing from watching the
game on Monday night is LT actually looked
close to the LT of old, and I think the San
Diego offense will be clicking on all cylinders
on Sunday.
Chargers 33 Chiefs 20
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I love Indy in this spot coming off a bye,
and Bob Sanders is rumored to be playing
as well in at least some form this week.
Indy doesn't have the two small undersized
DT's anymore and are actually pretty
decent against the run now, this isn't good
news for a Rams team that relies on
Stephen Jackson as their main offensive
weapon. I would take the Colts -17 easy
here. I love the Colts, expect a big game
from Peyton Manning especially after Drew
Brees and Tom Brady's big weeks last
week. Peyton is going to show that he is
still top dog.
Colts 45 Rams 17
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I honestly think Houston is a playoff team
this year. I predicted them to be 10-6 and
this week is a game they should win. San
Fransisco gives up 250 yards in the air, not
good when you play the Texans on a fast
track. I expect big games from Schaub,
Johnson & Slaton. Shaun Hill is pretty
sporadic at QB, and even with Michael
Crabtree getting his first start of the year, I
don't think it will help this week. Houston is
on a roll, and they will win this one. This
line should be around 5 if you ask as I
think Houston is by far a better team, and
that is saying a lot since I am high on San
Fransisco.
Texans 37 49ers 23
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Jamie
2009 Record: 43.3% (13-17)
2008 Record: 55.1% (27-22-2)
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Vikings at Steelers (-5)
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Colts (-13.5) at Rams
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Saints (-6.5) at Dolphins
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Vikings +5
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Colts -13.5
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Saints -6.5
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In the game of the week, I trust the Vikes
more than the Steelers. Pittsburgh shouldn't
be able to run the ball well. And Ben takes a
lot of sacks. give me the 5 points in this one
even though Favre has played worse outdoors
which should be a close game throughout.
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I normally stay away from high spreads but
this year more often than not they have
been covering. I don't see how the Lams
can compete over 4 quarters with the Colts
and they are getting Sanders back this
week. Peyton is on top of his game.
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Another game where the home team is
over-matched. The 'Fins have been playing
well, but can anyone stop the Saints
offense? Miami isn't built to come from
behind or win high-scoring contests, which
in both cases should happen in this game.
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