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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three (now) five (for 2012) "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final 2011 results: Combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
We have a cumulative record this year of 77-70-3 (52.4 percent) ATS.
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2012 NFL WEEK 11 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Lines used for each handicapper are the lines at the time of their pick.
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Links to their picks are under the name (as well as below in the grid).
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Spreads are as of Sunday, November 18th at 09:44 a.m. ET
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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John
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Steve
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Discuss
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Kevin's picks
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Dan's picks
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Sean's picks
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John's picks
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Steve's picks
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Thu, Nov 15 at 8:30 PM
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Bills 19, Dolphins 14
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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REDSKINS
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3.5
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Eagles
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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Packers
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3.5
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LIONS
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GB -3.5
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GB -3.5
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GB -3.5
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GB -3.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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FALCONS
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9.5
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Cardinals
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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Buccaneers
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1.5
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PANTHERS
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TB -1.5
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TB -1.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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COWBOYS
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7.5
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Browns
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CLE +8
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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RAMS
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3.5
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Jets
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STL -3.5
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STL -3.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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TEXANS
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15.0
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Jaguars
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HOU -15
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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Bengals
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3.5
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CHIEFS
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Sun, Nov 18 at 4:05 PM
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Saints
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5.0
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RAIDERS
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Sun, Nov 18 at 4:25 PM
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PATRIOTS
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9.5
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Colts
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NE -9
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IND +9
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Sun, Nov 18 at 4:25 PM
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BRONCOS
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8.0
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Chargers
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SD +7.5
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DEN -7.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 8:30 PM
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Ravens
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3.5
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STEELERS
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PIT +3.5
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Mon, Nov 19 at 8:30 PM
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49ERS
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NL
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Bears
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Bye Weeks (see all byes): Giants, Seahawks, Titans, Vikings
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 12-17-1 (41.4%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Jets at Rams (-3.5)
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Jaguars at Texans (-15)
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Packers -3.5
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Rams -3.5
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Texans -15
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With or without Jordy Nelson (and without Greg
Jennings), Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers has got
this offense firing on all cylinders. Since Week
4, Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns and
only three interceptions.
The Packers have won four consecutive
games. Aside from their Week 1 loss to the
49ers, the Packers other two losses were to
the Seahawks on an extremely questionable
call at the end of the game and to the Colts,
who came back on some late-game heroics by
Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne.
Despite their 6-3 record, the Packers are
playing as well as any team in football with an
extra week to prepare for the Lions as they
return from their bye . In addition, Nelson is
listed as probable and the Packers should
have their full complement of receivers
(minus Jennings).
It could be shootout, but the Packers will
extend their winning streak to five games.
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The Jets made plenty of headlines this
week with (mostly) anonymous comments
that Mark Sanchez is a better quarterback
than "Terrible" Tim Tebow. Despite any real
or perceived talent gaps between the two
signal-callers, The Sanchize ranks last in
the league among qualified quarterbacks in
completion percentage (52.0 percent).
For the Rams, Steven Jackson is coming off
a season-high 101-yard rushing
performance against one of the league's
top rushing defenses in the Niners.
Although it took 29 carries for him to
eclipse the century mark, things should be
easier for the Rams rushing attack this
week.
Only the Bills and Saints have allowed more
rushing yards per game than the Jets this
season.
Take the Rams Sunday and pick yourself
up some copies of the NYC tabloids on
Monday.
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In our consensus power rankings, the
Texans (first) and the Jaguars (tied for
last) are at opposite ends. The Texans
have only one loss while the Jaguars have
only one win.
The Jaguars will be without Maurice
Jones-Drew for another week and their
offense has generally struggled this season
whether Pocket Hercules was in or out of
the lineup. No team has scored fewer points
per game (14.1) than the Jags. Meanwhile,
the Texans rank third in the NFL in scoring
defense (15.9 points per game) and
second in total defense (281.6 yards per
game).
As bad as the Jags are on offense, their
defense gives them a run for their money.
Only three teams have allowed more
rushing yards per game than Jacksonville,
which should mean another big week for
Houston's Arian Foster.
Don't be intimidated by the spread as this
has the makings of one of those 27-3,
31-6, etc. type of games.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 17-13 (56.7%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Buccaneers (-1.5) at Panthers
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Chargers at Broncos (-7.5)
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Packers -3.5
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Buccaneers -1.5
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Chargers +7.5
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This is a crucial game for both teams in the
NFC North, and also for the overall wildcard
playoff picture as well.
The Packers have been hampered a bit by
injury, but are coming off the bye week, and
they were starting to get the look of the team
that went 15-1 last year. The Packers have
had great history against the Lions, as they
have gone 9-3 in their last 12 against the
spread.
Although the Lions have done a great job of
shoring up their pass defense this year in
yards allowed, they still give up a staggering
66.1 completion percentage to opposing
passers. I love Aaron Rodgers coming off the
bye, going against a pass defense that allows
lots of completions, and 14 TDs on the year.
Green Bay has started slowly, but now is the
time that they will beat another division rival,
so I'm laying the points here.
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Tampa Bay has been on fire of late, as this
will be the third week in a row I will be
making a play with them. The Buccaneers
have gone an amazing 7-2 against the
spread this year so far, and they have also
already beaten Carolina as well.
The Bucs boast the No. 1 rushing defense
in the league, as this matches up perfectly
with what the Panthers do best in running
the football. The Buccaneers also
surprisingly have enormous offensive
firepower with Josh Freeman, Vincent
Jackson, Mike Williams, and of course
rookie sensation Doug Martin.
I love a balanced Tampa attack led by
Doug Martin going up against an average
Carolina rush defense that allows 116 yards
per game.
Every week it seems that the bookmakers
keep discounting the Bucs, and if the line is
going to be this small, I will gladly take it.
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Maybe it's my Patriots bias that has
prevented me from saying that Denver is
an elite team this year. While Peyton
Manning has certainly looked exceptional
on his way back this year, the same could
be asked of where exactly did Philip Rivers
go?
The Chargers have actually had good
fortune playing at Mile High in the past, as
they have gone 4-0-4 against the spread in
their last eight games. I am still not sold
on the Denver defense, as they have
allowed a minimal 218 yards per game, but
they have also surrendered 16 touchdowns.
I am fairly certain that the Broncos will be
winning this game, but when a team that
has the second best rushing defense in the
league is getting 7.5 points to a divisional
opponent, you have to take it.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 18-12 (60.0%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Colts at Patriots (-9)
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Browns at Cowboys (-8)
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Packers -3.5
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Patriots -9
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Browns +8
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This is one of those can't-miss type of
games. Detroit is not the team they were last
year, and the Packers are refreshed after a
bye last week.
I think we will be talking about the Packers as
the team to beat in the NFC after a big win in
Detroit.
I think there will be nine passing touchdowns
combined in this one with Rodgers throwing
six. Packers win, 45-27.
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With a win against the Pats on the road,
Andrew Luck, in my opinion, would solidify
himself as the choice for Offensive Rookie
of the Year. I don't see that happening
though.
I think Bill Belichick will dial up a defense
that will give Luck a ton of trouble. I think
this will be Luck's worst game as a pro.
On the flip side, the Patriots are great at
putting up points on the board against
mediocre defenses, and the Colts definitely
fit the bill. Pats win big at home, 41-17.
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While I do expect the Cowboys to win this
game, and overtake the Giants to win the
NFC East, they are a team that just can't
put people away. The Cowboys also
struggle in the redzone. They are 25th in
the NFL converting TDs a little more than 40
percent of the time.
Cleveland is actually 31st, but when both
teams are converting 3s instead of 7s, I will
take the points. The public loves to bet the
Cowboys and Vegas loves this fact. The
Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home
games.
Cowboys win, but it's closer than people
would expect. Cowboys, 22-16.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 13-15-2 (46.4%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Colts at Patriots (-9)
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Chargers at Broncos (-7.5)
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Packers -3.5
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Colts +9
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Broncos -7.5
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As a general rule, I try not to get goaded into
what is historically one of the worst bets in
football: small road underdogs. However, my
feeling is that the Packers should be a larger
road favorite because there is a greater
distance between these two teams than their
records indicate. Aaron Rodgers is back to
playing like the MVP of the league, and Green
Bay is coming off a bye.
On the other hand, the Lions were starting to
salvage their season before getting beaten
pretty soundly by their division-rival Minnesota
Vikings. The game ended with the Vikings
winning by 10, but Minnesota had control of
the entire game.
With Detroit playing inconsistent ball, I like
the Packers to cover the small spread in a
31-20 type game.
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The Colts have become more than just a
feel-good story. They are a legit threat to
make the playoffs, and though they seem
to be pretty well behind the traditional
powerhouses (Steelers, Ravens, Patriots,
etc.), I think they are closer than this
spread would indicate.
The Patriots are coming off a lackluster
performance against Buffalo, nearly blowing
the game before intercepting the ball in the
endzone to secure a six-point win.
Indianapolis dominated in the Thursday
game, and although it was the Jaguars, it
was a road game that they won easily. You
can only play the teams on your schedule,
and so the Colts went into Jacksonville and
wiped the floor with them.
For obvious reasons, the Colts are playing
inspired football right now, and I like them
to give the Patriots a run here. It may take
a late Brady score to pull out the victory, so
I'll take the nine here for sure.
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It was only a matter of time before Peyton
Manning was going to have the Broncos as
one of the best teams in the AFC and a
legitimate Super Bowl threat (John's picks).
Manning is likely in line to become the only
five-time MVP (see past winners) and has
the offense firing on all cylinders.
Meanwhile, the defense and special teams
have also been formidable, coming off a
game in Carolina in which they scored on a
punt return, an interception return, and a
safety. At the moment, the Broncos look
like they're playing better ball than
anybody in the league.
The Chargers came out fairly strong against
Tampa last week, with Philip Rivers throwing
for three touchdowns, but he also had an
unforgivable pick-six, and ultimately, San
Diego did what they usually do, and lost an
important game. At 4-5, they still have a
chance to compete for a wild card, but I
don't think they have the talent or
resilience to make that happen.
The last time these two teams played, we
witnessed one of the great Peyton Manning
comebacks of all time, scoring 35
unanswered points to win 35-24. This time
around, I expect a similar result without the
need for the epic comeback.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 17-13 (56.7%)
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Buccaneers (-1.5) at Panthers
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Jets at Rams (-3.5)
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Ravens (-3.5) at Steelers
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Bucs -1.5
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Rams -3.5
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Steelers +3.5
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Divisional games on the road are tough, so
I’m a little hesitant with this pick, but how can
you not like the way the Bucs are playing now?
In the preseason, I picked the Bucs to win 10
games, and they are now starting to show the
talent that may get them to double-digit wins.
From a matchup perspective, I like what the
Bucs can do throwing the ball downfield to
Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. On
defense, the Bucs have been exposed in the
passing game, as the Bucs give up a league
worst 321 yards per game; however, the
Panthers don’t have any real threats at wide
receiver as Steve Smith has lost a step and
there is no other complementary pass catcher.
I can see the Bucs scoring early and the
Panthers unable to catch up in a shootout.
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And the New York Jets official meltdown
begins!
[Editor's note: "begins" equals continues.]
After all the anonymous quotes from the
Jets locker room circulating in the papers
this past week, I’m surprised the line hasn’t
doubled. Everyone sees Saint Louis giving
the game away last week against San Fran
and still see a bad team.
I’m looking at the Jets performance last
week in Seattle and wondering if they forgot
to board the plane. The Jets offense is as
bad as advertised in the preseason and the
Rams defense is improving. I’d take the
Rams giving seven even if the game was in
New York; three points at home and the
game looks a like a gift.
Rams win it by two touchdowns and cover
easy.
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I picked this game against my better
judgment - almost solely so I can pick
against the Ravens again. Two weeks ago,
I had this game marked off as one to pick
and one where I thought the Ravens would
get exposed, but that’s why you go week by
week. Big Ben gets hurt last week, and now
everything changes.
Allow me to digress back to last week's 35-
point win over the Raiders and tell you what
I saw: An offense that could only generate
rushing 35 yards from their lead back and a
defense that was shredded through the air
for 368 yards, two touchdowns, and a
completion percentage of 65 percent.
Without knowing the context of the game,
you would think it was the Raiders who only
got 35 yards from their back and Oakland's
defense backfield was MIA (well they were,
but the Ravens couldn’t stop anyone
either). Did it not alarm anyone else that
Ray Rice could only rush for 35 yards?
Against the same defense that just gave up
251 yards to Doug Martin only one week
earlier?! Against a top 5 rush defense like
the Steelers and No. 1 rated overall, I have
to question the Ravens ability to move the
ball offensively.
Furthermore with Rashard Mendenhall
returning to the lineup, Baltimore’s
questionable run defense is being put to
the test. So that brings us back to the key
question, can Byron Leftwich do enough for
the Steelers to win? . . . that I don’t know,
but I like my chances.
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