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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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2012 NFL WEEK 1 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Picks and spreads are as of Wednesday, September 5th at 4:59 p.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Game Thread
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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John
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Steve
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Wed, Sept 5 at 8:35 PM
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GIANTS
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4.0
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Cowboys
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NYG -4
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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BEARS
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9.5
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Colts
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IND +9.5
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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Eagles
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8.5
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BROWNS
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PHI -8.5
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PHI -8.5
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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JETS
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3.0
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Bills
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BUF +3
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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SAINTS
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7.0
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Redskins
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NO -7
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WAS +7
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NO -7
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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Patriots
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6.0
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TITANS
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NE -6
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TEN +6
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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VIKINGS
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4.0
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Jaguars
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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TEXANS
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13.0
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Dolphins
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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LIONS
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7.0
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Rams
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DET -7
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Sun, Sept 9 at 1:05 PM
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Falcons
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3.0
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CHIEFS
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KC +3
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Sun, Sept 9 at 4:30 PM
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PACKERS
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5.0
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49ers
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GB -5
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Sun, Sept 9 at 4:30 PM
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Panthers
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2.5
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BUCCANEERS
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CAR -2.5
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Sun, Sept 9 at 4:30 PM
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Seahawks
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3.0
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CARDINALS
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Sun, Sept 9 at 8:30 PM
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BRONCOS
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1.5
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Steelers
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DEN -1.5
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Mon, Sept 10 at 7:05 PM
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RAVENS
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6.0
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Bengals
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Mon, Sept 10 at 10:20 PM
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RAIDERS
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1.0
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Chargers
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
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Eagles (-8.5) at Browns
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Redskins at Saints (-7)
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Rams at Lions (-7)
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Eagles -8.5
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Saints -7
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Lions -7
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In my opinion, the Browns are the worst team
in the NFL and I'm not alone. Their best
offensive player is Trent Richardson, but he is
returning from a second knee surgery. He
may not be 100 percent yet, which means it's
possible that he doesn't get the normal
workload he will get in the future. Either way,
it's likely that the Eagles establish an early
lead with the one of the most dynamic
offenses in the league. Of course, Michael
Vick is always an injury risk on every play, but
rookie Nick Foles seems to be a very capable
backup. The Browns will be without defensive
tackle Phil Taylor, who was placed on the PUP
list, and the team allowed seven 100-yard
rushers including one 200-yard rusher last
year. (As a result, I've ranked LeSean McCoy
as my No. 1 running back this week.) The
Eagles will rally around Andy Reid, who lost his
son Garrett tragically last month and who is
clearly on the hot seat based on comments
from owner Jeffrey Lurie. Look for the Eagles
to get things off on the right foot in Week 1
and beat down the Browns in a laugher.
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The future is bright for rookie quarterback
Robert Griffin III, the reigning Heisman
Trophy recipient, and it certainly wouldn't
surprise me if he led the 'Skins to pull off
the upset. That said, the Saints are
another team that will certainly begin the
2012 season with a chip on their shoulder
or something to prove. Perhaps the
distractions of Bounty-Gate will wear thin as
the season progresses, but the Saints are
nearly unbeatable at home. The Saints are
25-6 at home over the past four seasons
including a perfect 8-0 record last season.
In the past three seasons, Brees has
thrown 46 TDs at home (vs. 33 on the
road). To make matters worse for the
Redskins, they will be without starting
safety Brandon Merriweather, who will miss
the next two to four weeks with a sprained
MCL/PCL (via the team on Twitter).
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As bad as the Rams were in 2011, things
should start to improve in St. Louis with new
head coach Jeff Fisher. They signed
Cortland Finnegan via free agency, but he
will struggle to slow down Calvin Johnson
because, well, who doesn't? With freakish
size and athleticism, Megatron closed the
season with three 200-yard games in the
final four weeks counting the playoffs. The
Rams are bad against the run, but Michael
Brockers, their first-round pick, will help
shore up their rush defense. That said,
Brockers is out for this week's game and
more due to a high-ankle sprain.
Therefore, I like Kevin Smith a lot this week
in fantasy football. Although the Lions
secondary is banged up and leaves a lot to
be desired when they are 100 percent
healthy, the Lions can rush the passer and
the Rams can't block anyone. No team
allowed more sacks than St. Louis (55) last
year. Although Sam Bradford is healthy (or
healthier), he has indicated that he is not
fully recovered from last season's
high-ankle sprain.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
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Cowboys at Giants (-4)
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Patriots (-6) at Titans
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Panthers (-2.5) at Buccaneers
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Giants -4
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Patriots -6
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Panthers -2.5
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Welcome back all to a new year, and thank
you for all of your support throughout the
year, and the best place to start is with the
defending champions. The Giants will open at
home on Wednesday night against their old
nemesis, the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants
have had the Cowboys number as of late, as
they have gone 5-1 against the spread in
their last six. Yes, Dallas has revamped their
passing defense by adding two new
cornerbacks, but I love Eli Manning going
against last year's 23rd-ranked passing
defense. Lay the 4 for the defending
champions at home as they have owned
Dallas the past three years.
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The next game on the board is the
runner-up in last year's Super Bowl on the
road against the Titans. The Patriots have
reloaded on offense by adding Brandon
Lloyd, and have Wes Welker, Aaron
Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski in the
fold. The Patriots also have the local history
against the Titans, as they have gone 3-1
against the number in their last four
games. The Titans have been on the rise,
and have named Jake Locker their starter
for this year. I really like the revamped
Patriots defense going against Locker, and
also only giving less than a touchdown on
the road. Count me in for the Pats on this
one.
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For the final game I like for kickoff
weekend, we have the Panthers traveling to
Tampa Bay. The Panthers are a team on
the rise, after the meteoric rise of Cam
Newton, and they boast the three-headed
rushing monster in Jonathan Stewart,
DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert. The
Buccaneers posted the worst rushing
defense last year, as they gave up 156
yards per game to the rest of the league.
The Panthers have been able to exploit
this, as they averaged 5.3 yards against
Tampa last year and they have covered five
of the last seven games against the
spread. Take the Panthers on the road
here as they have too much of a rushing
attack and history on their side.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
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Patriots (-6) at Titans
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Redskins at Saints (-7)
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Falcons (-3) at Chiefs
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Titans +6
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Redskins +7
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Chiefs +3
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There is a trend that has happened for the
past 12 seasons and that is the Super Bowl
loser has not covered the number in Week 1.
Of those 12 Super Bowl losers, only two have
won the game outright. Pretty shocking stuff
right there. The Patriots are clearly the better
team on paper, and I expect the Patriots to
win the Super Bowl (playoff picks here) this
year, but I think 6.5 points on the road in
Week 1 is too much. The difference is Titans
QB Jake Locker. I have dubbed Locker "The
Truth" and he will make his first NFL
regular-season start on Sunday. I think the
Titans weapons on offense are very
underrated. They will be without Kenny Britt,
who will be serving a one game suspension
for basically being an idiot, but rookie WR
Kendall Wright looks to have developed a
connection with Locker, and TE Jared Cook is
a matchup nightmare. Speaking of matchup
nightmares, the Patriots have a ton on
offense themselves especially Rob
Gronkowski. The Titans gave up the
10th-most fantasy points to TEs last year and
the Titans only faced two TEs in the top 10
last year in Jimmy Graham and Tony
Gonzalez. I expect big games from both
Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and the
Patriots will win, but this game will be a lot
closer than their last meeting where the Pats
won 59-0.
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This will be the first regular-season game
for Redskins first-rounder Robert Griffin III
and the first game the Saints will be without
head coach Sean Payton. I don't think the
loss of Payton will hurt as much as people
think especially when you have a QB like
Drew Brees running the show. The Saints
come into the season with a little chip on
their shoulder as many people including
myself have them missing the playoffs in
2012. The Saints are one of the best
teams in the NFL on the offensive side of
the ball. They are 12-1 ATS in their last 13
games at home, but I think the number is
too high here. RG3 will have his rookie
mistakes for sure this season, but he will
definitely make more good plays then bad.
The 'Skins will finish last in the NFC East
again this year, but that is only because of
the division they are in, and not because of
the talent on the field.
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On the road, the Falcons are a much
different team than they are at home in the
dome. The Chiefs are my sleeper pick to
win the AFC West this year, and to do so
they need to win games where you really
think they shouldn't. This is one of those
games against the Falcons. The Falcons
kind of remind me of the Chargers from a
few years back as the "sexy" pick to win the
conference. They are loaded with talent
and Matt Ryan is poised for a breakout
year but winning at Arrowhead is very
tough. If I have one regret this summer,
it is not drafting Peyton Hillis in any of my
fantasy leagues. The Chiefs have two RBs
(Jamaal Charles the other) who should
eclipse the 1,000-yard mark, but I believe
Hillis will be the more valuable of the two.
The Chiefs were hit hard with the injury bug
last year, and I believe this team kind of
gave up because of it. The Chiefs win this
one at home, 23-17.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
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Bills at Jets (-3)
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Eagles (-8.5) at Browns
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Steelers at Broncos (-1.5)
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Bills +3
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Eagles -8.5
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Broncos -1.5
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Even before the Jets first- and second-string
offenses were unable to score a touchdown for
the entirety of the preseason, I picked the
Jets to finish last in the AFC East. The
defense may still be pretty good, but the
offense is absolutely terrible. Sanchez may
have what it takes to develop into a good
quarterback, but he has neither the wideouts
nor the running game to make that kind of
transformation. The Bills, on the other hand,
have improved on both sides of the ball from
last year. They'll be getting Fred Jackson
back to help out on the offensive end, and
the addition of Mario Williams on defense has
the potential to be a game-changer for
Buffalo. I like the Bills to win this game
outright and I'm definitely taking the three
points.
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This is a pretty big spread going into the
first week of the season, but these two
teams are not that close. Philadelphia
finished last season strong, winning the
final four games of the year, and then went
4-0 in the preseason. Preseason doesn't
mean much, but in game three, when the
Eagles played all second stringers against
Brandon Weeden and the rest of
Cleveland's first stringers, the Eagles won
the first quarter 14-0, and the game 27-10.
Philadelphia is not going to allow
themselves another poor start this year,
and they're going to start of the year by
easily handling the Browns.
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This may be my favorite pick of the week.
I don't love picking against a team as good
as the Steelers, but I think this game is set
up perfectly for Denver. In Peyton
Manning's return to the NFL, and first game
since the 2010 season, I think he's primed
to get his first "W" as a member of the
Broncos. The atmosphere is going to be
electric, so I expect a greater than normal
home-field advantage. In addition to this,
I feel the Steelers are going to take a step
back this year. I'm not writing them off,
and come playoff time, they very well may
be on the short list of legit contenders in
the AFC. However, with Mendenhall hurt,
Mike Wallace not happy, and the defense
another year older, Pittsburgh is not the
same team they were a few years ago. I
like Denver to jump out to an early lead
and fend off the Steelers.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
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Colts at Bears (-9.5)
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49ers at Packers (-4.5)
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Redskins at Saints (-7)
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Colts +9.5
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Packers -5
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Saints -7
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Andrew Luck’s first pro game comes against
one of the perennial NFL defensive
powerhouses in the Chicago Bears.
Ordinarily, rookies tend to struggle in their
first year in the NFL; however, that precedent
has changed in recent years and Luck appears
to be no ordinary rookie. Chicago may play
without Brian Urlacher, or at least he will be
slowed by injury to his right knee.
Furthermore, the defense could have a down
year, and won’t be as complex or stifling as
some of the defenses Luck will play against
throughout the year. This should be a back-
and-forth game and the nearly double-digit
spread seems much too high for two relatively
balanced teams. I expect a good showing out
of Luck and the Colts offense; however, the
Indianapolis defense will struggle to stop Matt
Forte, Jay Cutler and the Bears offense. The
Colts will keep it close, but ultimately fall
short to a late Cutler-to-Marshall touchdown.
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Green Bay, the best offense in the NFL,
battles arguably the best defense, San
Francisco, in a Week 1 showdown of
titans. This could prove to be a preview of
the NFC Championship Game and is the
showcase game of weekend. I predicted
both teams to win their respective divisions;
however, in line with my team-by-team
picks, I expect Green Bay to excel and San
Fran to muddle along. The 49ers still
haven’t put it all together offensively and
are still overly dependent on the run
game. Green Bay can counter the Niners
run with BJ Raji, their nose tackle and a
great run stopper – allowing AJ Hawk and
Clay Matthews to close in from linebacker.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers
will probably be slowed some by the 49ers
defense, but not enough to keep this game
close. A couple of touchdown passes by
Rodgers to Jennings and Nelson will keep
the lead comfortable for the Packers.
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A seven-point spread is just asking for a
push and this game has upset written all
over it with all the off-field distractions that
the Saints are facing. Historically though,
Mike Shanahan teams are slow starters,
and I wouldn’t expect much difference with
this Redskins team. As long as New
Orleans can stay focused during this game,
they have far more talent on both sides of
the ball than the Redskins do and should
be able to cruise to victory. Washington
doesn’t have the vertical threats on offense
to put the necessary pressure on the Saints
defense or to keep up with the New Orleans
offense. Despite all the off-field
machinations, on the field, Drew Brees in
the leader of the Saints team and can run
the offense single-handedly. It’s the
defensive side of the ball that will struggle
for the Saints and I expect Washington to
keep it close, but they won’t have quite
enough.
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