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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three (now) five (for 2012) "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final 2011 results: Combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
With a rough Week 1 (3-12), we have a cumulative record this year of 17-24-3 ATS. (We have been .500 or better in Weeks 2/3.)
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See also:
- Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex: Standard - PPR
- Rest-of-Season (ROS) Fantasy Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Week 4 FanDuel Leagues: 3 teams | 6 teams | 8 teams | 10 teams | 16 teams
- Weekly Consensus Power Rankings
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2012 NFL WEEK 4 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Picks and spreads are as of Thursday, September 27th at 7:33 p.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Discuss
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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John
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Steve
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Thu, Sept 27 at 8:35 PM
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RAVENS
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12.0
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Browns
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Game Thread
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BAL -12
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CLE +12
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Sun, Sept 30 at 1:05 PM
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Patriots
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4.0
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BILLS
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Game Thread
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NE -4
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NE -4
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NE -4
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Sun, Sept 30 at 1:05 PM
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FALCONS
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7.5
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Panthers
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Game Thread
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CAR +7.5
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Sun, Sept 30 at 1:05 PM
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49ers
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4.0
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JETS
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Game Thread
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SF -4
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SF -4
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Sun, Sept 30 at 1:05 PM
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CHIEFS
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0.0
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Chargers
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Game Thread
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Sun, Sept 30 at 1:05 PM
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TEXANS
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12.0
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Titans
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Game Thread
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TEN +12
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Sun, Sept 30 at 1:05 PM
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Seahawks
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3.0
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RAMS
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Game Thread
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Sun, Sept 30 at 4:10 PM
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CARDINALS
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6.5
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Dolphins
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Game Thread
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MIA +6
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Sun, Sept 30 at 4:10 PM
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BRONCOS
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6.5
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Raiders
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Game Thread
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Sun, Sept 30 at 4:10 PM
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Bengals
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2.5
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JAGUARS
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Game Thread
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CIN -2.5
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CIN -2.5
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Sun, Sept 30 at 4:30 PM
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PACKERS
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7.5
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Saints
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Game Thread
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Sun, Sept 30 at 4:30 PM
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BUCCANEERS
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2.5
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Redskins
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Game Thread
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Sun, Sept 30 at 8:30 PM
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EAGLES
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1.0
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Giants
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Game Thread
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Mon, Oct 1 at 8:30 PM
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COWBOYS
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3.5
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Bears
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Game Thread
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DAL -3.5
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DAL -3.5
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DAL -3.5
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- Note: No Line (at time of picks) for Vikings at Lions (Game Thread).
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Bye Weeks (see all byes): Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 2-6-1 (25.0%)
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Patriots (-4) at Bills
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49ers (-4) at Jets
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Bears at Cowboys (-3.5)
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Patriots -4
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49ers -4
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Cowboys -3.5
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For the first time since the 2003 season, the
Patriots have a losing record (1-2) as they
have suffered back-to-back losses to the
Cardinals and Ravens. It is hard (ok,
impossible) for me to imagine a team led by
Tom Brady on the field and Bill Belichick on
the sideline to lose three straight games. It
appears that C.J. Spiller has an outside
chance to play and Fred Jackson had
previously given himself a 70-75 percent
chance of returning this week. Either way, the
Patriots are much improved on the defensive
side of the ball and I expect the Patriots to
force The Amish Rifle to shoot some blanks.
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The Jets struggle to run the ball against
bad defenses so it's going to be tough for
the combination of Shonn Greene and Bilal
Powell to establish the ground game
against the 49ers. Meanwhile, the 49ers
can rush the passer as well as anyone and
I expect them to force Mark Sanchez into
many mistakes. For the Jets, the loss of
shutdown corner Darrelle Revis impacts
much of what they do on the defensive side
of the ball. I expect the 49ers to run the
ball more often and better this week, Alex
Smith to not turn the ball over and their
defense to suffocate the Jets offense.
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As a Cowboys fan, I typically avoid picking
their games, but I think they have the
potential to frustrate the hell out of Jay
Cutler on Monday night. The Cowboys have
one of the best cornerback tandems in the
league with rookie Morris Claiborne and
Brandon Carr, their big free-agent signing
this offseason, and have allowed the
second-fewest passing yards this season.
In addition, the Bears offensive line is
shaky, at best, and DeMarcus Ware is one
of the best pass-rushers in the league.
Cutler has thrown for less than 200 yards in
back-to-back games and has only one
touchdown and five interceptions in those
two games.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 4-5 (44.4%)
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Patriots (-4) at Bills
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Bengals (-2.5) at Jaguars
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Bears at Cowboys (-3.5)
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Patriots -4
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Bengals -2.5
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Cowboys -3.5
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It seems like almost every week I have been
on the Patriots, but when the spread is
favorable you have to ride the hot hand. The
Pats come into this game having lost their
last two, but almost always have the way to
beat Buffalo as they are 8-3 against the
spread in their last 11. The Patriots have
beaten the Bills by eight-plus points in three
of their last four, and in the Belichick era
never have three-game losing streaks. I like
Tom Brady going against a 19th-ranked pass
defense that gives up 248 yards per game
and six touchdowns. The Bills best weapon is
the ground game and CJ Spiller is likely out,
and Fred Jackson would be coming back from
a sprained knee going against a Pats D that
only yields 81 yards a game. Lay the -4 here.
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The Bengals come into this game on a bit
of a roll as they have won two of their last
three, while the Jags notched their first win
last week against the Colts. The Jaguars
will once again look to feature Maurice
Jones-Drew, and play ball control offense to
keep it out of Andy Dalton's hands. The
Bengals have found a nice balance of
offense this year with BenJarvus Green-Ellis,
A.J. Green, and Andrew Hawkins. The
Bengals will bring the fourth-best passing
game in the league against Jacksonville's
21st-ranked passing defense that gives up
258 yards per game. The Bengals have
history on their side as they are 2-0-1 in
their last three games against the number.
I love the short number here with a
playoff-caliber team not even giving a field
goal to Jacksonville.
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I guess with the regular refs coming back, I
am liking all favorites this week and the
Monday night game jumped out at me.
The Cowboys have sputtered a bit on
offense in their last two games after taking
it to the Giants in the season opener. The
Bears have also struggled a bit on offense,
and Jay Cutler has the Bears ranked only
28th overall in the passing game. The
Cowboys have had the better history of the
two teams, as they are 4-1 in the last five
games against the spread. I also love the
No. 2 ranked Dallas passing defense that
only gives up 137 yards a game and has 7
sacks already to make Jay Cutler shove
more linemen. I am taking the Cowboys at
home on Monday night, as they are a team
that plays to their competition, and will
make a statement against Chicago.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 3-6 (33.3%)
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Titans at Texans (-12)
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Patriots (-4) at Bills
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Dolphins at Cardinals (-6)
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Titans +12
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Patriots -4
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Dolphins +6
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Too many points in this one. Tennessee is
not as bad as people think they are. They
have played the Patriots and Lions at home
and the Chargers on the road, where they
always struggle. We saw last week what Jake
Locker can do, and I think Locker and the
Titans can make enough plays to keep this
one close. The underdog in these meetings
win about 70 percent of the time, so I am
going to stick with the trend in this one. I
think Arian Foster and Ben Tate have big days
and also Owen Daniels as the Titans give up
way too many big plays over the middle due
to inexperienced LBs. Texans win 34-23
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Let's get this straight: the Bills do not have
the Patriots number. In fact, the Patriots
own the Bills in recent history. Yes, the Bills
did win last year at home, but the Patriots
covered on the road in the previous seven
games in Buffalo. There is no way a team
with Tom Brady at QB and Bill Belichick
coaching will go 1-3. It will not happen. The
Bills are banged up at running back. CJ
Spiller is likely out, and Fred Jackson will
likely be limited if he plays. They could be
relying on Tashard Choice, which equals
bad news for Bills fans. The Patriots will
have a monster day on defense against
Ryan Fitzpatrick. For you fantasy players, I
expect a 15-plus points out of them. Brady
and the Pats rebound big, 37-13
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Thank God that I have the NFL Sunday
Ticket; otherwise, I would have had to
watch that pitiful game between the
Dolphins and Jets last week. Arizona is
among three unbeaten teams, but the fact
is Arizona is nowhere near as good as the
other two (Houston and Atlanta). Both
teams have shaky QBs and injured RBs.
Beanie Wells was just placed on a
returnable IR and Reggie Bush is battling a
knee injury. Arizona's defense has played
great this year, especially last week vs
Philly, but this is the perfect classic letdown
game after a big win. This game will be
closer than people think as Miami's
defense isn't too shabby either. It
wouldn't surprise me to see Miami pull off
the upset, but I will take the points. Cards
win, 20-17. OT
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 3-4-2 (42.9%)
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Browns at Ravens (-12)
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Panthers at Falcons (-7.5)
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49ers (-4) at Jets
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Ravens -12
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Panthers +7.5
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49ers -4
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Baltimore is coming off an emotional win over
New England Sunday night. It's a short week
for them, but fortunately for the Ravens, they
have Cleveland coming to town. Although the
Browns defense has improved from last year,
Brandon Weeden and the offense have just
not been able to do much damage. Weeden
is the 30th-rated quarterback in the league
with twice as many interceptions (six) as
touchdown passes (three). On the other
hand, Baltimore just hung 31 points on the
Patriots and have been finding a solid
combination of Joe Flacco and Ray Rice. I
expect more of the same from both teams,
with it being a good week to have Baltimore's
defense in fantasy. With what happened in
Seattle Monday night, I don't expect a
letdown game for Baltimore, as the
importance of each game was emphasized.
The Ravens should get an easy win here.
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The Falcons may be the most impressive
team in the league so far this year. They
smoked the Chiefs in Week 1, held off the
Broncos charge in Week 2, and had no
trouble at all with a previously undefeated
Charger team on the road. Matty Ice has
been brilliant and the receiving corps
Atlanta has is among the best in the
league. On the contrary, the Panthers have
gotten off to a relatively sluggish start.
They struggled in a Week 1 loss to the
Bucs and then rebounded against what
looks like a pretty terrible Saints team, only
to get blown out in primetime in a home
game against the defending Super Bowl
Champion Giants. I don't expect the
Falcons to play a bad game, but I do
expect the Panthers to rise up. This is a
critical early game for them to stay in
contention for the playoffs and the
division. Cam Newton let a big opportunity
slip away last Thursday night. I'm not sure
if Carolina will end up with the 'W', but I do
think it will come down to one possession,
and I like the Panthers to at least cover 7.5.
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San Francisco was one of my picks last
week, and they laid a complete egg against
the Vikings. The defense wasn't good, the
offense wasn't sharp, and they
uncharacteristically lost the turnover battle
with one pick and two fumbles. This week,
the Niners will travel to New York to take on
a Jets team coming off an unimpressive
overtime victory in Miami. I don't know
what got into the Jets in Week 1 against
Buffalo, but the past two weeks have been
a more accurate portrayal of the offense.
Solid defensive play is really the Jets best
chance to remain in games and try to eek
out a win in the end. Against the Dolphins
it worked out; against San Francisco, I'll
have to see it to believe it. And with
Darelle Revis out for the remainder of the
season, that solid defense has become
much more mediocre. As for the 49ers,
they clearly took the Vikings too lightly and
had an off day. Christian Ponder was
terrific, and Minnesota pulled a pretty
incredible upset. That game will prove to
be a wake-up call for San Francisco, who is
now looking up in the division at the 3-0
Cardinals. I like the Niners to bounce back
this week, and I love the defense, who will
be looking to avenge a poor performance
in Week 3, to come up big on the road.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 5-4 (55.6%)
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Bengals (-2.5) at Jaguars
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Browns at Ravens (-12)
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Bears at Cowboys (-3.5)
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Bengals -2.5
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Browns +12
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Cowboys -3.5
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Every season there seems to be a team that
gets a little too much credit in the spreads for
prior season's past performances. This year
feels like it’s the Jaguars. A couple of weeks
ago they were only a seven-point dog to
Houston and they were completely blown out
at home by 20. Granted the Jags won last
week, but that was against the Colts, the
definition of a rebuilding year. This week,
the Jags welcome a Bengals team that I think
can challenge for the AFC North crown this
year. The Bengals defense has struggled so
far this year (29th), however, so have the
Jags (28th). So, I would look for the teams
to be trading touchdowns, not field goals in
this game. I like the Bengals to win going
away in this one.
Cincinnati 34, Jacksonville 24
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Pop-quiz – which team in this matchup is
ranked higher for total defense through
three games? Obviously Cleveland’s
defense is ranked higher, otherwise I
wouldn’t ask. Maybe the better question
should be, is Baltimore’s defense really the
fifth-worst in the NFL as the their current
ranking suggests? Or is just a product of
playing three good offenses so far this
season (Cincy, Philly and NE)? In
balancing perfectly on the fence, I do think
it’s a combination of both, but as stated in
my preseason predictions, I don’t think this
Ravens team is as good as they have
been. They are old on defense (and
missing their best player: Suggs) and
against teams that can run the ball, they
gave up 129 yards rushing to both Cincy
and Philly. I think Cleveland will be able
to run and score points on the Ravens,
keeping this game close and making those
12 points look really enticing. The NFL is
often about matchups, so common
opponents don’t always tell the story, but it
is interesting to note that Cleveland has
also played both Cincy and Philly, losing by
seven and one respectively in those games.
Cleveland 27, Baltimore 25
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By way of conversation, a 3.5-point spread
is usually a game I would avoid because it
feels like a much bigger spread and it’s all
in that half point effectively making this
game feel like a touchdown differential. In
a game pitting two the league’s top
defenses, a chippy field goal could become
the game winner, but not be enough to
cover. Despite my blustering about that
half-point, I still like Dallas to win and
cover. They have the No. 1 defense in the
NFL, having given up only 750 yards in total
defense through the first three games.
That includes the Week 1 game against the
Giants, who have accumulated over 1,000
yards in the their two subsequent games.
Also, Jay Cutler is likely to do Jay Cutler
things in a stand-alone night game like this
(please see the Week 2 performance for
my definition of “Jay Cutler things”) and for
all the preseason ado about the offense
would be improved with Brandon Marshall at
wide receiver, they are still near the bottom
of the league because they failed to solve
the problems on the offensive line. Dallas’
s D will reign and their offense will do
enough to cover on Monday.
Dallas 20, Chicago 10
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