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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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2012 NFL WEEK 5 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Picks and spreads are as of Thursday, October 4th at 7:33 p.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Discuss
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean *
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John
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Steve
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Thu, Oct 4 at 8:35 PM
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Cardinals
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2.0
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RAMS
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Game Thread
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STL +2
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Sun, Oct 7 at 1:05 PM
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Falcons
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3.0
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REDSKINS
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Game Thread
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ATL -3
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WAS +3
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Sun, Oct 7 at 1:05 PM
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STEELERS
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3.5
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Eagles
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Game Thread
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PIT -3.5
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Sun, Oct 7 at 1:05 PM
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Packers
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7.0
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COLTS
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Game Thread
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Sun, Oct 7 at 1:05 PM
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GIANTS
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8.5
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Browns
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Game Thread
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NYG -8.5
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Sun, Oct 7 at 1:05 PM
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BENGALS
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3.5
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Dolphins
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Game Thread
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CIN -3.5
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Sun, Oct 7 at 1:05 PM
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Ravens
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6.5
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CHIEFS
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Game Thread
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KC +6.5
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Sun, Oct 7 at 4:10 PM
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PANTHERS
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3.0
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Seahawks
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Game Thread
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SEA +3
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CAR -3
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Sun, Oct 7 at 4:10 PM
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Bears
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5.0
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JAGUARS
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Game Thread
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Sun, Oct 7 at 4:30 PM
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VIKINGS
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6.0
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Titans
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Game Thread
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MIN -6
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Sun, Oct 7 at 4:30 PM
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PATRIOTS
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6.5
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Broncos
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Game Thread
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DEN +6.5
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DEN +6.5
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Sun, Oct 7 at 4:30 PM
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49ERS
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10.0
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Bills
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Game Thread
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Sun, Oct 7 at 8:30 PM
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SAINTS
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3.5
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Chargers
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Game Thread
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NO -4
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Mon, Oct 8 at 8:30 PM
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Texans
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9.0
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JETS
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Game Thread
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HOU -9
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HOU -9
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* Sean's picks were posted at 7:47 p.m. on Friday, October 5th.
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Bye Weeks (see all byes): Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 4-7-1 (36.4%)
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Texans (-9) at Jets
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Seahawks at Panthers (-3)
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Eagles at Steelers (-3.5)
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Texans -9
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Seahawks +3
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Steelers -3.5
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Through four weeks, the Jets are 2-2 and tied
for the top spot in the AFC East. The good
news ends there. Only the Saints have
allowed more rushing yards per game and no
team has allowed more rushing touchdowns
(seven) than the Jets. Losing their best
defensive (and overall) player in shutdown
corner Darrelle Revis only makes matters
worse. With a balanced offense and
dominant rushing attack, the Texans rank
second in the league in scoring. As bad as
the Jets offense has been (28th overall), they
lost their most talented playmaker in
Santonio Holmes to a season-ending injury
last week. Like Bart Scott, I can't wait to see
the headlines in Tuesday's papers after
another beatdown for the Jets; this time in
prime time.
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The Panthers still can't stop the run as they
allow 4.9 yards per carry and 134.8 rushing
yards per game. In other words, they are
going to struggle to slow down Marshawn
Lynch and his league-leading 423 rushing
yards. (Give me a moment as I enjoy
these Skittles.) On the other hand, the
Seahawks allow the second-fewest rushing
yards (62.8 per game) and only 3.0 yards
per carry (YPC). Only the Dolphins (2.4)
allow a lower YPC. The Seahawks have a
top-10 pass defense as well and have only
allowed three passing touchdowns all
season. While the Panthers are better at
home than on the road, I like road teams
that can run the ball and play solid defense.
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My preseason pick to be Super Bowl
runner-ups to the Texans, the Eagles have
escaped three of their four games with wins
by one or two points. Considering the
number of turnovers they have committed,
they are incredibly lucky to have a 3-1
record. Coming off a bye, the Steelers are
well-rested and should get two of their most
important defensive players (linebacker
James Harrison and Troy Polamalu) back.
In addition, they will get Rashard
Mendenhall back from his torn ACL. No
team has averaged fewer yards per carry
(2.6) than the Steelers so it's a week too
soon for Mendenhall. This week, the
Eagles' luck will run out as the Steelers get
back on track.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 6-6 (50.0%)
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Falcons (-3) at Redskins
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Dolphins at Bengals (-3.5)
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Titans at Vikings (-6)
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Falcons -3
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Bengals -3.5
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Vikings -6
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Atlanta has been perfect so far this season,
as they needed a game-winning drive to
survive Carolina last week, and will invade
FedEx field this week. The Redskins have
been feisty this year posting a 2-2 record, and
have found a legit QB in Robert Griffin III.
The Falcons have the best wide receiver duo
in the league with Roddy White and Julio
Jones, and Matt Ryan is really starting to
develop the Matty Ice nickname. I love the
Falcons passing attack going against a
Washington pass defense that gives up 326
yards per game and 11 touchdowns already.
Throw in Atlanta's great start against the
spread at 3-1 and you have all the
ingredients for a 5-0 start by the Falcons. I
would lay the points here, as Washington
does not have the defensive personnel to
deal with the Falcons offensive aresenal.
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After being thumped in their opener, the
Bengals have looked impressive on offense
posting 27, 38 and 34 points, respectively.
The Dolphins have had a tough start to the
season, and almost came away with an
impressive road win against Arizona last
week. You also wouldn't think it, but this
game will have the two highest yardage
gaining receivers in the league going
head-to-head: Brian Hartline vs. A.J. Green.
Andy Dalton is having a great second year,
and I love his match up this week going
against a 17th-ranked Miami passing
defense that gives up 277 yards per game.
I love the Green and Andrew Hawkins
combination, as the only Miami corner that
could cover either of the two now plays in
Indianapolis. Lay the points here again, as
the Bengals at home will win comfortably.
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The Vikings are off to an impressive start
at 3-1, and have been playing great
offense behind Christian Ponder, Adrian
Peterson and Percy Harvin. The Titans have
had a tough start so far, but must be
encouraged as Chris Johnson finally got
started this year against a tough run
defense in Houston last week. The Titans
problems have been mainly on defense,
and I really love the Vikings at home in the
dome. Minnesota has such a favorable
match up playing against a passing
defense that gives up 285 yards per game
and 10 TDs, and Adrian Peterson gets to
rush against a front seven that has given
up 136.5 yards per game and five TDs. I
know Matt Hasselbeck is one of the better
backups in the league, as Jake Locker will
be out with a shoulder injury and this just
will compound Tennessee's problems. I
have no worries about going with the home
favorite here as the Titans simply don't
play defense.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 5-7 (41.7%)
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Browns at Giants (-8.5)
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Chargers at Saints (-4)
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Broncos at Patriots (-6.5)
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Giants -8.5
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Saints -4
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Broncos +6.5
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I love the Giants at home this week vs
Cleveland. I think this is going to be one of
those statement games for Eli Manning and
the Giants offense even without WR Hakeem
Nicks. Is there a WR in the NFL with as many
injury concerns as Nicks? If Nicks were
healthy, this Giants offense would be one of
the league's best. Without him, they are
good and that is mainly due to Eli Manning.
Manning turned Victor Cruz into a star.
Ramses Barden had a huge week filling in for
Nicks earlier this season, and Domenik Hixon
had one last week. The targets are
interchangeable and I don't see how
Cleveland can keep this one close. Brandon
Weeden will make mistakes against a
swarming Giants D and the blue win big 34-20.
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I had originally projected the Saints would
win their first game vs the Bucs, but the
more I look at this game I can't see how
the Saints lose this one at home
considering this is Brees record-breaking
game. This game won't have a Hurricane
Katrina feel, but I think it will be close. For
the Chargers, Philip Rivers has really
missed Vincent Jackson more than I
thought he would this year. If you take
away the game vs. Tennessee, who has
one of the worst defenses in football,
Rivers has 3 TDs and 3 INTs. The Saints
defense is bad, but San Diego's offense
isn't exactly a well-oiled machine like it was
in years past. Give me the Saints big 31-17
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The last time these two teams met I was
pretty much spot on when I predicted the
Pats to win by 30+. This year it is a whole
different story. The X factor in this one is
obviously Peyton Manning. Manning gives
the Broncos not only a shot to win this
game outright, but more importantly win
here in January if they happen to meet in
the playoffs. Last season it was like a
snowball rolling down hill, and I think the
Broncos kind of conceded defeat, as there
was no way their offense could make a
comeback. I am very high on the Patriots,
and still think they are the team to beat in
the NFL this season. Gostkowski redeems
himself late as the Pats win in the final few
seconds 24-23.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 5-5-2 (50.0%)
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Cardinals (-2) at Rams
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Seahawks at Panthers (-3)
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Broncos at Patriots (-6.5)
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Rams +2
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Panthers -3
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Broncos +6.5
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The Cardinals have been playing good
football to be 4-0 going into Week 5 as they
eeked out another close win in overtime
against Miami this past weekend. I think the
buck is gonna stop in St. Louis, though. The
Rams have been a lot better than most
people thought they would be going into the
year. Jeff Fisher has the defense playing well,
and aside from a poor performance at
Chicago in Week 2, they've put up 73 points
over the other three games. Arizona has
some pretty obvious flaws and though they
share the same record as the Falcons and
Texans, they're really not in that league yet.
The undefeated season probably should have
ended against the Dolphins, but they came
out on top with another close finish, with a
touchdown on the final play of regulation and
an overtime field goal. With a short week
against a team that is 2-0 at home in St.
Louis, though, I like the Rams to take this
one, and knock the Cardinals from the ranks
of the unbeaten.
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The Seahawks are a completely different
team at home than on the road. The 12th
man in Seattle is second to none.
Fortunately for the Panthers, this game is
in Carolina. Seattle was only able to put up
13 points this past week on the road at St.
Louis, while the Panthers put up 28 against
undefeated division-rival Atlanta, in a game
that they had in hand until the final minute
of play. The Panthers need a win to stay
relevant and they certainly have the talent
to do so. I believe they will play with a lot
of motivation, in an effort to claw back to
.500 after a poor 1-3 start. Look for Cam
Newton to have another big game, only this
time he'll come out with a win as well.
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The Patriots have been the model NFL
team for the bulk of the last 12 years, but
they're no longer the unbeatable
regular-season team they once were, as
evidenced by their mediocre 2-2 start.
Although the Patriots two losses have come
to the undefeated Cardinals and 3-1
Ravens, their two victories were over the
Titans and Bills. This past weekend, the
Patriots showed that they can still run up
the score against an inferior team, and
once they get up big, no team is better at
stepping on your neck and absolutely
crushing the opponent. They put up 45 in
the second half against the Bills, en route
to a huge win, to avoid a 1-3 start. The
Broncos, however, have little in common
with the Bills. Though both teams have a
2-2 record, the Broncos have lost to two of
the best teams in the league in the Falcons
and Texans (a combined 8-0), and both
games were by six points. With Peyton
Manning and the offense getting better and
better, I expect a great game that may
come down to the last quarterback to
possess the football. I'm looking forward
to another Brady vs. Manning matchup, and
I think the Broncos have a good shot to
give New England their second home loss of
the year. I definitely take the seven
points, and think there's a reasonable
chance that Denver gets the outright win.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 7-5 (58.3%)
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Ravens (-6.5) at Chiefs
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Falcons (-3) at Redskins
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Texans (-9) at Jets
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Chiefs +6.5
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Redskins +3
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Texans -9
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As I mentioned last week with Jacksonville
being overrated and the spreads not
representing that, I feel similar about
Baltimore. The Ravens may be 3-1, but I’m
going to the well one more time with this pick
against Baltimore with my third straight week
picking against the Ravens. Despite the
record, the Ravens are only a couple of plays
(and some bad officiating) from being 1-3 –
that late Brandon Weedon pick-six potentially
cost the Browns the game last week. As
evidence that Las Vegas (and the betting
public) think more highly than they should,
Baltimore has failed to cover for three
consecutive weeks and I think we make it four
in a row. Kansas City is fourth in total offense
and I expect the Ravens will have a hard time
slowing down Jamaal Charles. Baltimore’s
defense is weakest and slow along the edges,
which is where Charles is most dangerous. As
an added challenge, Arrowhead stadium is as
tough a place to play as anywhere in the NFL.
I’ll take the Chiefs with the points and expect
Kansas City to win on the field.
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Another game where I believe what I see
and what the numbers say and ignore the
talking heads on TV. Everyone loves the
Falcons and Matty Ice, and I concede Matt
Ryan has been great this year, but the
Falcons defense is bad. Atlanta can’t stop
the run (29th in the NFL against the run)
and only had one dominant victory, which
was against the Chargers who only ran the
ball 15 times during the game (still for 115
yards). They were lucky to win last week
against the Panthers as Carolina ran for
199 yards. It should also come as no
surprise that a Mike Shanahan team is
dedicated to the run and Washington
currently leads in the NFL in rushing yards
per game. Washington is another home
'dog, and things always get a little funny in
the NFL when there a lot of road teams as
favorites. I’ll take the Redskins to win on
the field and dominate with their rushing
attack.
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After last week’s debacle in the
Meadowlands, I would anticipate a little
more out of the Jets – even a dead cat
bounces. However, like a dead cat – the
Jets stink. They won’t be shutout two
weeks in a row, but I think the Jets may be
the worst team in the NFL. This line should
be 19 instead of 9. The only hope for NY in
the game is if the Texans miss their flight.
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