Ace Bailey - NBA Mock Draft Roundup 2.0

The 76ers' move up to No. 3 was surprising. I thought it was more likely Philadelphia would fall out of the top-seven and have to give its pick to Oklahoma City than what transpired on Monday. The 76ers can go multiple directions here, but adding Bailey to a core of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, Jared McCain and Joel Embiid would be mutually beneficial.

Bailey, who was listed at 6 feet, 10 inches at Rutgers, measured in at 6 feet, 7 1/2 inches barefoot this week at the draft combine. He was highly touted because of his ability to score at his size, but after coming in a bit shorter than expected, it is unclear how that could affect his draft stock.

The All-Big Ten third-team selection should still be considered a top-five pick, with his scoring instincts, offensive movement and feel for the game. The Hornets didn't have the lottery result they wanted, but the organization should still be able to add a potential cornerstone in Bailey to the roster.

I expect the Sixers to look into scenarios that involve moving this selection, especially now that they've moved up without getting inside the top-two picks. Their backcourt is fairly loaded with Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes and last year's pick, Jared McCain. There could be a consideration to get a big to backup Joel Embiid, but my read is that president of basketball operations Daryl Morey would see that as a bad way to maximize the current core of players he worked hard to assemble last fall.

Bailey's range starts at No. 3 now that the Sixers officially have the pick. They certainly could use a bigger wing to pair with Paul George. However, Bailey's range extends a bit further down than this into even the middle portion of the lottery. He remains quite polarizing for executives and has seemed to have borne the brunt of the blame from NBA personnel for Rutgers' poor season.

Yes, he averaged 17.6 points and seven rebounds while shooting 46 percent from the field and 34 percent from 3. But his style of play did not seem wildly conducive to winning basketball. He settles for a lot of long jumpers because he struggles to get all the way to the rim (he has a high handle and high center of gravity that gets knocked off its line a bit too easily). Defensively, he wasn't always particularly engaged in help situations unless he saw an opportunity to go get the basketball. It will be interesting to see where the Sixers' scouting department comes down on Bailey and his evaluation.

It's worth noting that Rutgers was a catastrophe when Bailey wasn't on the court. Even in Big Ten play, they lost Bailey's minutes by only three points per 100 possessions. When he was off the court, they lost those minutes by 23 points per 100, per CBB Analytics. His presence was clearly helpful, and I think that's what tracks most for me. Bailey is enormous, he's long, he is a real shooter, and he showed some defensive moments that were very positive in switch situations.

Pro Comparisons: Brandon Miller, Michael Porter Jr., Rashard Lewis

Scouts sound mostly willing to look past Ace Bailey's questionable shot selection and tunnel vision for the advantage created by 6'10" size and special shotmaking skill.

The bar was ultra high coming in, and teams aren't likely to over nitpick an 18-year-old who possesses his unique ingredients for on/off-ball scoring potential.

A reliance on tough shots, poor assist-to-turnover ratio, low free-throw rate and disappointing 69.2 free-throw percentage will enter the equation. But Bailey still sounds locked into the top-five mix, and the workout and interview process should only help strengthen teams' interest.

Team Fit: With Paul George on the decline, the Sixers could look to Bailey to add more scoring and shotmaking around the perimeter.

Scouting report: Bailey has been more polarizing for scouts than a typical top-five pick, displaying flashes of scoring upside at Rutgers while still at an early stage of his development in other key areas. Lottery teams are eager to get a feel for him in the predraft process, including interviews, to understand how far away he is from contributing positively on an NBA floor.

Wings with Bailey's combination of size, physical skill and shooting prowess are rare. That coveted archetype has kept his stock largely steady despite his inconsistencies as a decision-maker, ball handler and defender. Some teams are concerned with the risk attached in those areas, but his scoring talent has tantalizing appeal for front offices in search of star power. -- Woo

NBA intel and fit: The Sixers can not only breathe easy but celebrate after their pick jumped to No. 3, rather than falling out of the top six and conveying to Oklahoma City. A high-value draft selection gives the Sixers a true silver lining after a 24-58 season, as they try to balance winning around Joel Embiid and building for the future.

Bailey's shotmaking chops and significant scoring upside would give Philly another strong building block for the long term, in addition to its rising backcourt of Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain. -- Woo

It's easy to believe Bailey is chock full of long-term upside as an athletic 6'9 forward (okay, he measured 6'7.5 barefoot) with a 7-foot wingspan who flashed some wild shot-making ability throughout his freshman year at Rutgers. When Bailey is hot, he can takeover a game as a scorer with a pure jumper very few players can effectively contest. He's also a skilled mid-range scorer who made 46 percent of his non-rim two-pointers with 73 percent of those looks being self-created. He has the athletic tools to recover defensively, showing solid supplemental rim protection skills and defensive rebounding potential. Bailey is so talented that he can usually get a decent look at the rim, but that doesn't mean he should always take it. He was an inefficient scorer at Rutgers with 53 percent true shooting. His handle is so shaky that he can't always leverage his physical tools near the basket, and to this point he struggles badly with his passing vision. It's hard to envision Bailey as a star when his handle and playmaking remain this much of a work in progress, but he should still have a high floor with his size, explosiveness, and shooting if he learns to slow down and consistently make smarter reads.

I've had Tre Johnson earmarked for Philly for a while because he could be a great plug-and-play fit, but Bailey does a lot of similar things (albeit not quite as efficiently in the movement shooting from 3), while also having more size and defensive upside. Bailey doesn't have to become a superstar to make an impact in the NBA. His something-from-nothing shotmaking, even without taking a single dribble, will be a helpful option when possessions go south. And once some easy offense comes into his life after he trudged through possessions at Rutgers, it's highly possible that his strengths will pop even more than they did in college. There will be more hands on the cook line in Philly to throw easy buckets his way, and lord knows he's hungry for them. Add in some glimpses of big-time help defense, and it's clear that he can fit into what the Sixers are doing in the short term as his more fantastic, long-term possibilities threaten to materialize.

Philadelphia moving into the top three was among the big lottery night surprises. The 76ers can grab one of the big three in this class -- here I have them taking Ace Bailey -- adding a dynamic scoring wing to a core that includes Jared McCain and Tyrese Maxey.

After a disastrous season, the Sixers get to keep their top-six protected pick. But drafting Bailey would raise serious questions about the direction of the franchise. On one hand, he is a ridiculous shot-making machine, capable of splashing contested jumpers from every spot on the floor and with the swagger of a throwback bucket-getter. At his size, he fits next to Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain in the years to come. But can the Sixers afford to wait when the clock is ticking on the Joel Embiid era? Bailey's shooting consistency, plus his raw edges as a shot creator and defender, need sanding down to turn him into a full-on star. It would not be a shocker if the Sixers look to trade down (or out) with a team badly hoping to land Bailey.