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I picked the Colts to win the division before the season. But after four games, EPR is much higher on Indianapolis than I am. The Colts beat the Bears and are 3-1, but this team still has plenty of questions. The defense ranks near the top of the league in pretty much every statistical category, but given their opponents, it's fair to wonder if they're going to be just solid or elite when all is said and done. And the offense lacks an identity. Indianapolis went three-and-out on three of four possessions to start the second half. Frank Reich's play-calling tendencies suggest he is content winning with defense and the run game. The only problem? The Colts have been the worst rushing team in the league, according to EPR. They have a lot to figure out in the weeks ahead.

They haven't exactly played a lot of top offenses, but the defense has really improved. They will be tested more this week against the Browns.

Never change, Philip Rivers. One of pandemic's very few silver linings is listening to you trash talk opponents, like Bears LB Roquan Smith, on their home fields.

FPI chance to make playoffs: 72.9%

This is too high, but not by much. The Colts have taken advantage of the first part of their schedule by winning three games against teams that are a combined 4-8 this season. The Colts have proved they don't need Philip Rivers to dominate each week. That's because their defense has been the stingiest in the NFL so far. The Colts will need to continue to be a complete team the rest of the way because they still have Green Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Tennessee (twice) coming up. -- Mike Wells

The Colts continue to win with their defense. Nick Foles and the Bears were the latest victims, managing just 269 yards of total offense in Indy's 19-11 win. The Colts did most of their work on Sunday without All-Pro linebacke Darius Leonard, who exited in the first half with a groin injury. It shows the improved depth of the unit compared with past seasons under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. With the defense humming, Philip Rivers and the offense haven't had to do too much. The Indy attack hasn't quite found its footing, but the Colts' newfound balance allows the team to keep winning while they figure it out.