2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
BY KEVIN HANSON (@EDSFootball)
Updated: Friday, January 1st
There is slightly less than four months to go until the 2021 NFL Draft kicks off in Cleveland (or virtually again?) on April 29th.
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While uncertainty abounds this far out from the draft, one certainty is that the Jacksonville Jaguars have "won" the right to the first pick in 2021.
Since 2008, the Jaguars have had a top-10 pick every year except for 2018 (29th overall, Taven Bryan).
Despite being perenially bad, the franchise has never had the No. 1 overall pick. They have had the No. 2 pick three times, a top-five pick eight times and a top-10 pick 18 times.
Regardless of what happens on Sunday, the Jags have secured their first-ever No. 1 pick and could not have done so at a better time in franchise history.
MORE: Latest version of our 2021 NFL Mock Draft
NFL Mock Draft - Round 1
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Losers of 14 consecutive games, the Jags won the #tankfortrevor sweepstakes (as noted above).
2021 brings optimism for Duval County with a franchise-changing quarterback prospect, new front office and (presumably) new coaching staff taking over. Jacksonville has the most available 2021 cap space (via Over the Cap) and tons of draft capital. Not only do they have the first pick and five of the top 65 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, but the Jags have nine picks through Round 5.
Happy New Year, Jags' fans!
2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
There is absolutely zero mystery with the first pick, but it gets interesting (in terms of suspense) when the Jets are on the clock.
Given a roster full of holes, the Jets could go in a number of different directions here. Even though Sam Darnold has missed at least three games in every season and has not (yet) shown that he is the long-term answer, he won't turn 24 until June.
Perhaps the Jets will draft Ohio State's Justin Fields, Oregon's Penei Sewell or trade back, but Wilson has enjoyed a pre-draft rise similar to that of Joe Burrow last year. Charted by PFF with the lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays this season, Wilson uses his mobility to make and extend plays and is accurate throwing downfield.
3. Miami Dolphins - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
With two first-round picks including this one courtesy of the Houston Texans, the Dolphins could auction this pick off to a team looking to get ahead of the Falcons, who could be in the market for a long-term replacement for Matt Ryan.
If they stay put, however, this pick would likely come down a prospect that would help put Tua Tagovailoa in position to succeed -- Sewell or LSU's Ja'Marr Chase.
While Sewell opted out of the 2020 season, the 2019 first-team AP All-American was dominant in his true-sophomore campaign and won't turn 21 until October.
4. Atlanta Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Per Spotrac, Matt Ryan (22.99%) will account for nearly one-quarter of the team's 2021 salary cap. While the new regime could go in a number of different directions, this will be the first time that the team will pick inside the top four since they selected Ryan third overall in 2008.
Barring a trade, this scenario would allow Fields the opportunity to serve as Ryan's apprentice for a season. While he's had a couple of multi-INT games in his past three, the dual-threat quarterback is a top-five prospect and has thrown 56 touchdowns (and rushed for 15 more) while throwing a total of eight interceptions in his two seasons with the Buckeyes.
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Fans may prefer Sewell (and Sewell returned the love via social media) to protect Joe Burrow, Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater could be a consideration here. With Chase, however, the Bengals reunite Burrow and his former top target, the 2019 Biletnikoff Award recipient. Even though Chase opted out of 2020, he would have been the WR1 in last year's elite receiver class as well.
6. Philadelphia Eagles - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Other than his slight frame (6-1, 175), what is not to like about Smith? An outstanding route-runner, the sure-handed receiver has been been uber-productive over the past two years.
If Smith had declared last year, he would have joined Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy as first-round receivers. This year, he'll join teammate Jaylen Waddle as first-rounders. Despite the star-studded receiving corps, it was Smith that led the team in receiving yards (1,256) and touchdowns (14) last season. This year, the Heisman hopeful really stepped up with the injury to Waddle as he currently leads the FBS in receptions (98) and yards (1,511) and is second in touchdowns (17).
Even though the team drafted Jalen Reagor in the first round in 2020, it wouldn't be a surprise if they went back to the well in 2021 with a talent like Smith.
7. Detroit Lions - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Detroit has a number of legitimate options to weigh here:
- Trey Lance as Matthew Stafford's long-term replacement
- Jaylen Waddle to address a potential free-agency void created by Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and/or Danny Amendola
- Their choice of CB (Patrick Surtain or Caleb Farley) to pair opposite Jeff Okudah
Before opting out of the 2020 college season, there was a moment where the 244-pound linebacker was listed as Penn State's top kick returner. Even if perhaps by mistake, that highlights the type of athlete that the first-team All-American (2019) is. Parsons uses his athleticism, length and instincts to impact the game against the run, in coverage and as a blitzer.
8. New York Giants - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami (FL)
Giants' fans may prefer to add a weapon like Jaylen Waddle here, but I see Dave Gettleman using this pick on the pass rush. Not only is the team's top pass-rusher (Leonard Williams, 8.5 sacks) a free agent-to-be, but nose tackle Dexter Williams ranked second on the team in sacks (four).
Unlike last year with Chase Young, there isn't a slam-dunk top edge defender in this draft. Both Rousseau and Michigan's Kwity Paye will fight for that honor, but Rousseau has outstanding length and burst and was second in the nation in sacks (15.5) in 2019 behind only Ohio State's Young (16.5) before opting out in 2020.
9. Carolina Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
In his first draft with the Panthers, Matt Rhule went all defense (literally). I initially slotted Trey Lance here, but the franchise uses this pick to protect Teddy Bridgewater -- not replace him (yet, at least).
As talented as Penei Sewell may be, not every evaluator has him ranked as their top offensive lineman. For example, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, one of the league's most connected and well-respected evaluators, has Slater ranked ahead of Sewell.
Spent the last few weeks studying OL for 2021 NFL Draft. Here’s my top 5 so far—
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) November 28, 2020
1) Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)
2) Penei Sewell (Oregon)
3) Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC)
4) Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)
5) Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma St)
While I have those two swapped in my OL rankings, the point is Slater could be off the board earlier than this. Even if he lacks ideal length and may eventually kick inside, the way he held his own against Chase Young last year suggests that he can more than hold up at tackle at the next level. Both Russell Okung and Taylor Moton are impending free agents.
10. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Ever since John Elway won a Super Bowl with another all-time great (Peyton Manning), the team's offense has struggled. In fact, the Super Bowl-winning season was due to the defense more than it was due to Manning. Since Manning retired after the 2015 season, the team's offense has ranked no better than 22nd in scoring offense and bottom half of the league in total offense every year. This season, the Broncos rank 27th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. It's not often that an FCS quarterback declares after playing only one game beyond his redshirt freshman season, but Lance has an intriguing dual-threat skill set.
11. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Since losing Dak Prescott for the season, the Cowboys are playing their best football heading into Week 17. Two of the team's top four corners -- Jourdan Lewis and Chidobe Awuzie -- are scheduled to become free agents in March. The 2020 SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Surtain II has an NFL pedigree (father was a three-time Pro Bowl CB) with elite size and length (6-2, 202) and will reunite with former teammate Trevon Diggs in this scenario.
12. Los Angeles Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Justin Herbert has played as well as anyone could have expected in his rookie season. With Hunter Henry entering free agency this spring, Pitts provides some insurance if the team can't re-sign him, but he's a Darren Waller-type playmaker at the position that will help support Herbert's continued development in year two.
13. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Even though the Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue, he was traded away after playing only six games with Minnesota. Even so, Ngakoue, who's now in Baltimore, still leads the Vikings in sacks (five) this season. Topping Bruce Feldman's annual college football freaks list, Paye runs a 4.57 forty and his 3-cone time (6.37) would have been the best time at last year's combine.
14. San Francisco 49ers - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Teams can't have too many corners, yet free agency is about to wipe out all of their cornerbacks (all are either UFAs or ERFAs). One way or the other, the team will need to address the position group this offseason.
Along with Alabama's Surtain, Farley is in the mix to be the first corner off the board in April. Farley (6-2, 207) fits the mold that the 49ers prefer and he had four interceptions and 12 passes defended in 2019 before opting out this season.
15. New England Patriots - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The Patriots have a league-low eight passing touchdowns in 2020; the last time a team had single-digit passing touchdowns was 2012 (Kansas City Chiefs, eight). Regardless of who's under center in 2021, the team needs to improve its weapons. Waddle is a dynamic playmaker that had 120-plus receiving yards in the first four games of the season before breaking his ankle.
16. Las Vegas Raiders - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
The Raiders defense could use additional playmakers and although a bit undersized, Uwusu-Koramoah is exactly that. An explosive athlete with outstanding coverage range, Uwusu-Koramoah has led the Irish in tackles for loss in back-to-back seasons with 24.5 TFL total to go along with five forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries, an interception and seven sacks over that span.
Continue to 2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Picks 17-32
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