Kevin Hanson's 2021 NFL Mock Draft 8.0

BY KEVIN HANSON (@EDSFootball)
Updated: Thursday, April 15th

As noted in a previous iteration of my 2021 NFL Mock Draft, it's been five years (2016) since quarterbacks -- Jared Goff and Carson Wentz -- were selected with the first two picks of a draft.

In fact, a QB-QB start has happened in only 13.7% (seven) of the past 51 drafts (since 1970).

Even less common than the QB-QB start, there have been only four drafts (7.84%) with no defensive players selected inside the top five picks over that same span.

The last draft without a top-five defender was 2012 when the Dallas Cowboys selected LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne with the sixth overall pick.

Since 1970, here are the four drafts without a top-five defensive player:

Based on this mock draft, it's possible that we get two firsts since 1970:

1. Four quarterbacks selected with the first four picks
2. No defensive player selected in the first nine picks

NFL Mock Draft - Round 1

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Since stepping onto Clemson's campus as the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2018 recruiting cycle, Lawrence has been the presumptive top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Despite all of the losing in Duval County over the past 10-15 years, this marks the first time in franchise history that the Jags own the rights to the top pick in the draft.

While nobody is a perfect prospect, Lawrence checks all of the boxes with elite arm talent, mobility and leadership. The Urban Meyer era begins with the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and a treasure trove of draft capital -- nine picks in the first five rounds (top 170).

2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Although Sam Darnold didn't show that he was the franchise quarterback the team hoped he'd develop into when they selected him with the No. 3 pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, he also wasn't put in a position to succeed given the poor coaching and supporting cast. By trading him to the Panthers, the team resets and is absolutely flush with draft picks over the next two years to put the next quarterback in a position to flourish. In the 2021 and 2022 drafts combined, the Jets have 10 picks in the first three rounds -- four first-rounders, three second-rounders and three third-rounders.

Appearing on the Dan Patrick Show, former NFL quarterback and current analyst Chris Simms said, "I'm blown away by Zach Wilson, Dan. You know I look at it, and look at, and say this is an Aaron Rodgers, a Patrick Mahomes, Brett Favre-ish type guy." On top of lofty comparisons to HOF/MVP-caliber quarterbacks, Simms actually ranks Wilson ahead of Lawrence, but the BYU product's meteoric rise up draft boards this draft cycle has been similar to that of Joe Burrow in last year's draft.

If Lawrence weren't in this draft class, Wilson would be worthy of the No. 1 overall pick.

MORE: New York Jets 2021 NFL Mock Draft Roundup

3. San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

As much fun as it might be to think about a dual-threat talent, such as Ohio State's Justin Fields or North Dakota State's Trey Lance, operate inside a Kyle Shanahan offense, all signs point to the 49ers making Mac Jones the pick.

Jones may not be a "statue," but he lacks the mobility and arm strength that the rest of the top quarterback prospects possess. That said, Jones makes quick reads and throws with outstanding accuracy and touch. Taking the reigns from Tua Tagovailoa, the fifth pick in 2020, Jones really hit the ground running in 2020 as he completed 77.4% of his pass attempts and threw for 4,500 yards (11.2 Y/A), 41 touchdowns and four interceptions last season.

MORE: A 'Bama defender is the No. 1 pick in our way-too-early 2023 NFL Mock Draft

4. Atlanta Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Like Trevor Lawrence, Fields was a highly-coveted, five-star recruit in the 2018 recruiting class.

Even if 2020 was a bit of an up-and-down season for Fields, who at times tried to do too much, he showed tremendous toughness and leadership in Ohio State's semifinal win over Clemson as he threw for 385 yards and six touchdowns. A two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, the dual-threat quarterback accounted for 78 total touchdowns -- 63 passing and 15 rushing -- while throwing only nine interceptions over 22 games as Ohio State's starter.

If the Falcons aren't able to find a trade offer they like to move back, the Atlanta area native would have the opportunity to learn behind Matt Ryan in 2021 before potentially becoming the face of the franchise in 2022 and beyond.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

The Bengals find themselves in an enviable position. Not only could they potentially trade back for a team looking to come up for Trey Lance, but they have their choice of non-QB prospects and any of three prospects (Penei Sewell, Ja'Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts) would make sense here. Fortunately for the Bengals, the talent in this year's offensive tackle and wide receiver classes means that they could address the other position at No. 38 with a Round 1-caliber prospect.

The Bengals have begun the process of upgrading their offensive line by signing Riley Reiff, but it's only a one-year deal for the 32-year-old tackle and that shouldn't preclude them from selecting an elite prospect like Sewell here. While Sewell opted out of the 2020 season, the 2019 first-team AP All-American was dominant in his true-sophomore campaign and won't turn 21 until October.

MORE: Tee Higgins 2021 Fantasy Football Profile

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

The 20-year-old Pitts won the John Mackey Award, given to the nation's top tight end, as he finished the abbreviated 2020 season with 43 catches for 770 yards and 12 touchdowns. While technically a tight end, Pitts has generated some comparisons to Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson in terms of measurables. While there is only one Megatron, Pitts profiles as a player capable of dominating any defender lined up across from him.

MORE: 2021 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 200 Prospects

7. Detroit Lions - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and others signing elsewhere, Quintez Cephus (35/349/2) is the team's top returning receiver. Even though the team signed Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman to one-year deals, wide receiver arguably remains the team's biggest need heading into the draft.

If Chase, who opted out of 2020, were available for last year's draft, he would have been the WR1. The 2019 Biletnikoff Award recipient dominated SEC competition as a true sophomore to the tune of 84 receptions for 1,780 yards (21.2 Y/R) and 20 touchdowns. Not only did he lead the country in yardage and touchdowns, no receiver had more 15-yard receptions (46) or 25-yard receptions (25) than Chase in 2019.

8. Carolina Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

What will the Panthers do if one of the top five quarterback prospects (Trey Lance in this scenario) are still on the board when they are on the clock? At a minimum, the front office will at least consider double-dipping despite giving up three picks including a second-rounder in 2022 for Sam Darnold.

[Interesting note: Darnold is eight months younger than Joe Burrow.]

The Panthers used their franchise tag on right tackle Taylor Moton and Russell Okung, last year's starting left tackle, is currently a 32-year-old free agent. Slater's critics may point to his lack of ideal size or length, but if you watch Slater's tape against (former) Ohio State (and current WFT) edge rusher Chase Young, it's easy to project his ability to hold his own outside against NFL-caliber edge rushers. In addition, he has the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line.

MORE: Christian McCaffrey is the top-ranked RB in our early 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings

9. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Before John Elway became general manager in 2011, the Broncos selected Tim Tebow in Round 1 of the 2010 NFL Draft. Since then, the Hall-of-Fame quarterback hasn't had much success drafting his former position. (Of course, he had tremendous success by signing Peyton Manning in free agency.) In addition to three seventh-rounders, however, Elway drafted three quarterbacks in Round 1 and 2 over the past decade -- Brock Osweiler (2012, Round 2), Paxton Lynch (2016, Round 1) and Drew Lock (2019, Round 2). Could George Paton make a quarterback the first pick of his tenure as the team's new general manager?

In the previous iteration of this mock draft, the top-five quarterback prospects were all off the board before the Broncos were on the clock. While Lance played only one game in 2020 and all 17 of his career starts were against FCS-level competition, the dual-threat quarterback accounted for 48 touchdowns -- 30 passing and 18 rushing -- and threw only one interception in his collegiate career and he arguably has as much upside as any quarterback in this draft class.

MORE: Denver Broncos 2021 NFL Mock Draft Roundup

10. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

Re-signing Jourdan Lewis to a three-year deal but losing Chidobe Awuzie in free agency likely means that this pick is an outside corner, especially if the Cowboys have their choice of the position group. A three-year starter and the 2020 SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Surtain II has an NFL pedigree (father was a three-time Pro Bowl CB and his high school coach) with the size (6-2, 208), length and ball skills that new coordinator Dan Quinn will covet.

MORE: CeeDee Lamb 2021 Fantasy Football Profile

11. New York Giants - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

The 2019 first-team AP All-American is a versatile, three-down linebacker that uses his athleticism (sub-4.4 forty at 246 pounds), length and instincts to impact the game against the run, in coverage and as a blitzer.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Not the biggest receiver, Waddle is one of the most explosive athletes in the draft and extremely dynamic in the open field. With Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs off to the NFL, Waddle started the year with four 100-yard games before breaking his ankle. In fact, Waddle (557 receiving yards) outproduced (the eventual Heisman Trophy winner) DeVonta Smith (483) through the first four games of the season.

MORE: Jaylen Waddle 2021 NFL Mock Draft Roundup

13. Los Angeles Chargers - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

The Chargers hit a home run with Justin Herbert, reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the team's offensive line has been a perennial issue. In fact, no team ranked lower than the Chargers (32nd) in PFF's end-of-season offensive line rankings.

Signing Corey Linsley, Matt Feiler and Oday Aboushi in free agency is a good start to address the problem. In a strong offensive tackle class, it wouldn't be a surprise if they used this pick (or their second-rounder) on a tackle. Darrisaw is a three-year starter that had his best season as a junior and is especially dominant as a run blocker.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami (FL)

Trading for Yannick Ngakoue before the 2020 season, the Vikings should have had a dynamic 1-2 pass-rush duo with Danielle Hunter and Ngakoue. Not only did Hunter miss all of 2020, but the Vikings traded away Ngakoue only six games into his Minnesota tenure. Even so, the short-term Viking still led the team with five sacks. Meanwhile, Hunter is unhappy with his current contract.

It was an atypical journey for Phillips from the nation's top high school recruit to potential first-round pick. After briefly "retiring" from football and transferring to Miami from UCLA, everything came together for the gifted edge rusher as he recorded eight sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss over 10 games in his lone season in Coral Gables.

MORE: Our way-too-early 2022 NFL Mock Draft

15. New England Patriots - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

The subject of offseason trade rumors, Stephon Gilmore is heading into the final year of his current deal and his age-31 season. Could the Patriots find a long-term replacement from his alma mater?

The son of former Pro Bowl receiver Joe Horn, Jaycee excels in press-man coverage due to his size, physical playing style and competitive demeanor. He helped his case with a strong performance at South Carolina's Pro Day -- 4.39 forty, 41.5" vertical and 11'1" broad jump.

16. Arizona Cardinals - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Other than his slight frame (6-0, 170), what is not to like about Smith? An outstanding route-runner, the sure-handed receiver has been been uber-productive the past two years.

If Smith had declared last year, he would have joined Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy as first-round receivers. This year, he'll join teammate Jaylen Waddle as a first-rounder. Despite the star-studded receiving corps in Tuscaloosa, it was Smith that led the team in receiving yards (1,256) and touchdowns (14) last season. This year, the Heisman Trophy winner really stepped up with the injury to Waddle as he led the FBS in receptions (117) and yards (1,856) and was second in touchdowns (23).

Continue to 2021 NFL Mock Draft 8.0: Picks 17-32

Mock Draft Databases:

• NBA Mock Draft Database
• NBA Mock Draft Database
• MLB Mock Draft Database
• NHL Mock Draft Database

Also, check out more of our content:

• 2022 NFL Mock Draft
• 2023 NFL Mock Draft
• 2021 NBA Mock Draft
• Fantasy Football Rankings
• Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) like us on Facebook and/or (3) subscribe to our newsletter.